Was Sweden right after all ?

[Mr D]

Shes pointing out that half of the venues that are members of UK Hospitality aren't yet open.

A great many more, particularly independents aren't members and she'll have no data for these.

Across the board, there is far in excess of 50% open - I couldn't tell you exactly how many and I couldn't tell you how busy they are, but I can tell you that to say '50% of restaurants and pubs haven't reopened' is wildly inaccurate.

Judging by what I see locally in my area there are a couple of places that did not open immediately. Much greater than 50% did - and some of the closed ones have reopened.
My favourite cafe was seating quite a lot of people last year. Now they have probably at best 12 internal seats and 6 external seats. So if full between 9 and 18 customers - and normal year their costs are in excess of a quarter million a year.
They won't stay open long if their online business has problems.

 

[billybob99]

The sweds don't get things wrong very often

What about their cars Jeremy?

 

[Ian J]

What is really sad, almost criminal, is that if I'm right (that our high exposure to this virus - reflected in our high death rate - means we've more or less burnt out the virus in this country)

Haven't you done this to death on other threads that have now been closed?

 

[billybob99]

We need to quarantine this thread.

 

[fisicx]

What is really sad, almost criminal, is that if I'm right....Time will tell.

But what if you are wrong? What if it’s being held at bay because we are being careful. What if when cooler damp conditions return in the autumn the virus springs up again (just like the flu does each year). They are both SARS so there is no reason to think they will be any different.

If we get through to spring next year without a rise in hospitalisation and deaths the we can be more confident we really have beaten the virus. At the moment nobody knows. We are all guessing.

 

[Mr D]

But what if you are wrong? What if it’s being held at bay because we are being careful. What if when cooler damp conditions return in the autumn the virus springs up again (just like the flu does each year). They are both SARS so there is no reason to think they will be any different.

If we get through to spring next year without a rise in hospitalisation and deaths the we can be more confident we really have beaten the virus. At the moment nobody knows. We are all guessing.

Guess wrong and more people are off sick or isolating, more people die.

I'd not want to be a politician making decisions right now. Bad enough for the employers trying to keep staff safe.

 

[John Hemming]

That is because people had hugely changed their behaviour before lockdown.

Whereas I accept it is arguable that social distancing reduced the rate of infection and potentially was the cause of the peak in infections.

a) That accepts that the lockdown itself was not necessary
b) Looking at the post lockdown curve and more importantly the curve of hospital admissions and deaths more recently it appears that the level of infection in the community as a whole has a material limiting effect.
This gives the admissions per day in England
https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/healthcare?areaType=nation&areaName=England

The figures on that site for deaths are by date of reporting which is not a reliable statistic to use.

 

[Mr D]

Whereas I accept it is arguable that social distancing reduced the rate of infection and potentially was the cause of the peak in infections.

a) That accepts that the lockdown itself was not necessary
b) Looking at the post lockdown curve and more importantly the curve of hospital admissions and deaths more recently it appears that the level of infection in the community as a whole has a material limiting effect.
This gives the admissions per day in England
https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/healthcare?areaType=nation&areaName=England

The figures on that site for deaths are by date of reporting which is not a reliable statistic to use.

Perhaps if lockdown had not been necessary you would have done it anyway?
To keep yourself safe. As per Sweden.

However judging by the actions during lockdown by some and the actions after lockdown by many more - would you trust the British public to act as normal or to act with caution?

 

[John Hemming]

However judging by the actions during lockdown by some and the actions after lockdown by many more - would you trust the British public to act as normal or to act with caution?

Looking at hospital admissions infections are still going down. Hence regardless of people going on raves and demonstratoins as well as the gradual reversal of some of the lockdown rules the infection rates are going down.

 

[fisicx]

Looking at hospital admissions infections are still going down. Hence regardless of people going on raves and demonstratoins as well as the gradual reversal of some of the lockdown rules the infection rates are going down.

Indeed. But those doing so are less likely to become infected. They were never part of the curve.

 

[Mr D]

Looking at hospital admissions infections are still going down. Hence regardless of people going on raves and demonstratoins as well as the gradual reversal of some of the lockdown rules the infection rates are going down.

And as the testing is done en masse we know that?

Or is the testing still done only of those who get to a testing facility who can be tested? So numbers of infected we only know from a self generated portion of the population?

 

[John Hemming]

Indeed. But those doing so are less likely to become infected. They were never part of the curve.

The theory is, however, that they have the potential to infect others.

 

[fisicx]

The theory is, however, that they have the potential to infect others.

Yes they do. But in general they won’t be as elderly parents and others at risk are still isolating.

 

[Mr D]

Yes they do. But in general they won’t be as elderly parents and others at risk are still isolating.

Yes, government have said people at risk can effectively mingle. Medical advice appears to be along the lines of no.
Sure, isolating people are encouraged to exercise and socialise - an early morning walk around a block, talking to other people by phone etc.
But the smart ones are ignoring government in favour of medical or indeed making their own assessment of the risk.
And staying isolating.

Which is effectively lockdown by a few percent of the population.

 

[Interestedobserver]

But what if you are wrong? What if it’s being held at bay because we are being careful. What if when cooler damp conditions return in the autumn the virus springs up again (just like the flu does each year). They are both SARS so there is no reason to think they will be any different.

If we get through to spring next year without a rise in hospitalisation and deaths the we can be more confident we really have beaten the virus. At the moment nobody knows. We are all guessing.

I'm not sure we are guessing that much. You just have to follow what's happening around the world.

We've got lots more Covid to face yet.

Nothing special about UK that means we won't face lots of surges. Like everywhere else.

 

[Mr D]

I'm not sure we are guessing that much. You just have to follow what's happening around the world.

We've got lots more Covid to face yet.

Nothing special about UK that means we won't face lots of surges. Like everywhere else.

We can look at places with winter to see what could happen here.
Its winter for half the planet. We have maybe a few months to plan - or not plan.

 

[Interestedobserver]

Looking at hospital admissions infections are still going down. Hence regardless of people going on raves and demonstratoins as well as the gradual reversal of some of the lockdown rules the infection rates are going down.

John. Although I disagree with most of what you say on here I would love you to be right.

But I research all I can about this illness and its clear to me we are getting away with lots of stuff right now and lack of social distancing etc because it's mainly happening outside. Soon as we head into dark nights and winter all the socialising will be happening indoors.

And thats when the infections will really be hard to manage.

Do you not see that huge problem we've yet to even face?

 

[John Hemming]

Do you not see that huge problem we've yet to even face?

My background has always tend to be in numerical disciplines. My degree, for example, was in Physics specialising in atomic nuclear and theoretical physics. I tend, therefore, to look to numbers and measurements to identify what the situation is.

This chart is the chart of hospital admissions in England by day. We know that people who are admitted tend to be admitted within 13/14 days of infection. Hence if infections were going up we would see an increase in this chart from two weeks after the point at when infections go up.

https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/healthcare?areaType=nation&areaName=England

As you can see regardless of the removal of many limitations infections are going down. Hence the limitations were not the primary factor making the infections go down. (at this point).

We also know that there have been very many people infected without any symptoms. Hence we don't know how many people were infected. More people are being tested now hence we will count more infections. That does not, however, mean that there are more infections.

In other areas of the world it appears that the areas that were affected quite badly by the first wave are not having a second wave, but those areas which didn't really have a first wave are now having a second wave. That is substantially predictable.

 

[Mr D]

My background has always tend to be in numerical disciplines. My degree, for example, was in Physics specialising in atomic nuclear and theoretical physics. I tend, therefore, to look to numbers and measurements to identify what the situation is.

This chart is the chart of hospital admissions in England by day. We know that people who are admitted tend to be admitted within 13/14 days of infection. Hence if infections were going up we would see an increase in this chart from two weeks after the point at when infections go up.

https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/healthcare?areaType=nation&areaName=England

As you can see regardless of the removal of many limitations infections are going down. Hence the limitations were not the primary factor making the infections go down. (at this point).

We also know that there have been very many people infected without any symptoms. Hence we don't know how many people were infected. More people are being tested now hence we will count more infections. That does not, however, mean that there are more infections.

In other areas of the world it appears that the areas that were affected quite badly by the first wave are not having a second wave, but those areas which didn't really have a first wave are now having a second wave. That is substantially predictable.

Not disagreeing with your facts, just your conclusion.
Hospital admissions - so the conclusion is also hospital admisions. Not infections.

We are testing a self selecting group for infections. While it will give a result, the result is not necessarily correct for the population as a whole.

Remember to start with we were just testing hospital patients, then hospital patients plus some staff, then patients plus some staff plus some key workers....
And usually for those not patients its the ones who want reassurance or who are feeling ill who will be going for testing.

The results of those tested may be higher percentage wise than the population as a whole because its a restricted group being tested commonly.
Take a few towns and cities. Test a large percentage of the population of those for the virus over the course of a couple of weeks. That will give figures for those places from a large group and we can extrapolate from that for other areas - though inaccurate.

Oh, and how are Spain and US states fitting into your theory regarding 2nd waves. Or they still in the middle of 1st waves like us?

 

[Interestedobserver]

My background has always tend to be in numerical disciplines. My degree, for example, was in Physics specialising in atomic nuclear and theoretical physics. I tend, therefore, to look to numbers and measurements to identify what the situation is.

This chart is the chart of hospital admissions in England by day. We know that people who are admitted tend to be admitted within 13/14 days of infection. Hence if infections were going up we would see an increase in this chart from two weeks after the point at when infections go up.

https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/healthcare?areaType=nation&areaName=England

As you can see regardless of the removal of many limitations infections are going down. Hence the limitations were not the primary factor making the infections go down. (at this point).

We also know that there have been very many people infected without any symptoms. Hence we don't know how many people were infected. More people are being tested now hence we will count more infections. That does not, however, mean that there are more infections.

In other areas of the world it appears that the areas that were affected quite badly by the first wave are not having a second wave, but those areas which didn't really have a first wave are now having a second wave. That is substantially predictable.

I guess it's wording whether other countries are in the their second waves of extended first waves etc

As far as I'm concerned if we have to start closing down stuff again it's going to be devastating for all of us

Cannot see what's different about us for us to avoid it

Look at Australia. They thought they had it nailed. Now it's shutting down major cities again

Is it their winter now?

 

[Mr D]

I guess it's wording whether other countries are in the their second waves of extended first waves etc

As far as I'm concerned if we have to start closing down stuff again it's going to be devastating for all of us

Cannot see what's different about us for us to avoid it

Look at Australia. They thought they had it nailed. Now it's shutting down major cities again

Is it their winter now?

Yes they are in the middle of winter now there.

 

[Bob Morgan]

The poster who complains about people talking about Covid but actively opens each Covid thread in the Covid part of the forum to complain about them?

There must be a name for this?

Schadenfreude!

 

[Justin Smith]

Just to clarify what I'm saying re the death rates. There may be the odd bump and dip in the graph, but I predict it will not go back up to any where near the previous peak, at least not in countries with a similar death rate to us. Examples would be Belgium or New York, who had a bump in the graph but the trend was maintained :

Incidentally, these graphs are taken from Worldometer.
There is a table of all countries, column 10 is the most important column (which should be the default first place.......) and the list can be reordered by clicking on the header. The death rate graphs for all countries are available.

 

[fisicx]

And it shows Sweden to be 7th. But as has been explained, the demographics in Scandinavia are different to many other countries. You can’t compare like for like.

Nobody knows if there will be a rise later in the year. All we can do is wait and see.

 

[Bob Morgan]

Can we have the Budgies now, Charlie - P L E A S E!

 

[Jeff FV]

Incidentally, these graphs are taken from Worldometer.
There is a table of all countries, column 10 is the most important column (which should be the default first place.......) and the list can be reordered by clicking on the header. The death rate graphs for all countries are available.

Just a note of caution: the validity of the data from Worldometer has been called in to question.

I wouldn’t say that the site has been discredited, but there are certainly question marks over the provenance of the data they use.

For UK data, the gold standard is data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This data can be fully trusted, but has the disadvantage that it tends to lag by two weeks.

For worldwide data, Our World in Data (link: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) is a respected site, and also the data from the Financial Times is widely regarded as being as accurate as possible. They have made their Covid data freely available to the public. (Link: https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441 )

I am not saying your argument is right or wrong, just suggesting you might wish to see if alternative data sources produce the same results

 

[Mr D]

Just a note of caution: the validity of the data from Worldometer has been called in to question.

I wouldn’t say that the site has been discredited, but there are certainly question marks over the provenance of the data they use.

For UK data, the gold standard is data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This data can be fully trusted, but has the disadvantage that it tends to lag by two weeks.

For worldwide data, Our World in Data (link: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) is a respected site, and also the data from the Financial Times is widely regarded as being as accurate as possible. They have made their Covid data freely available to the public. (Link: https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441 )

I am not saying your argument is right or wrong, just suggesting you might wish to see if alternative data sources produce the same results

Bearing in mind that governments are not necessarily keen on giving out data that makes them look bad nor use the exact same sources - so not all countries are equally accurate. As you say ours tends to lag a bit - so on any one day the data may not be quite comparable to places with different or no delay.

 

[John Hemming]

Worldometer and the ONS both produce death rates by the reporting date rather than the date of death. That is not as good as analysing things by the date of death. That data is avaliable for some countries. In the end, however, it is not that far out.

 

[RobinBHM]

That is also true of many other infectious diseases - some of which kill more people globally annually, every year, than covid has done so far this year

That's a comparison of other infectious diseases that has been allowed to spread to Covid where massive steps have been taken to reduce R value.

 

[gpietersz]

That's a comparison of other infectious diseases that has been allowed to spread to Covid where massive steps have been taken to reduce R value.

On the other hand some of those are diseases for which vaccines exist.

Some have fairly effective treatments.

All have been around much longer.

They kill people every year, have done so for decades or even centuries, and will remain present for a long time.

 

[Mr D]

In a way this thread reminds me of a few months back when those of us watching the daily reported figures saw a couple of days of number of deaths fall - and some were convinced at the time it was a trend.
Perhaps because they needed to believe that rather than waiting to see what the trend would turn out to be.

A lot of information still to come with this virus. We can guess stuff about it and about government / societal reaction.
We can build what scenarios we think will happen into our planning.

But we won't know what is going to happen for some time yet. Perhaps the later stages of this wave / 2nd wave starting will shed more light on issues and we will get better statistics.
Perhaps we'll have more lockdowns over future years.
We won't know for some time to come.

 

[John Hemming]

Back to the title of the thread:
https://www.ft.com/content/f7be28a0-ba3c-49d2-ab0c-09c932f32901

It was supposed to be a terrible start to the summer. As a debate rages in Sweden over whether its lighter-touch approach to managing coronavirus has been the correct course, most European analysts were braced for dreadful quarterly earnings from the Scandinavian country during the height of the pandemic.

But every day for the past two weeks, Swedish company after Swedish company has beaten expectations.

From telecoms equipment maker Ericsson to consumer appliances manufacturer Electrolux via lender Handelsbanken and lockmaker Assa Abloy, Swedish companies have delivered profits well above what the market was expecting, even if in some cases that merely meant a less precipitous decline than analysts had feared.

“I have never seen such a high proportion of companies coming in with better profits than expected. It’s almost every company,” said Esbjorn Lundevall, chief equity strategist at lender SEB.

The bumper crop begs the question of how many of the positive surprises are due to Sweden’s more controversial approach to managing coronavirus. Unlike the rest of Europe and North America, the country did not have a lockdown and kept schools and many shops and businesses open — a public health experiment that has attracted global scrutiny and drawn both praise and censure.

“Keeping society open, schools open, doesn’t mean that we haven’t been hit. But it does mean that we haven’t suddenly not been able to leave our homes. That has undoubtedly helped companies,” Alrik Danielson, chief executive of Swedish bearings manufacturer SKF, told the FT.

 

[Mr D]

Back to the title of the thread:
https://www.ft.com/content/f7be28a0-ba3c-49d2-ab0c-09c932f32901

So the economy declined and companies reported higher profits. There's a correlation there, can we follow it well enough?

I can think of at least 2 suppliers who had to put a load of staff on furlough and run slower than normal processing of orders. Who are doing considerably better profit this year than expected - major cost base reduced while sales are ... up.
Perhaps more British businesses will report increased profits this year.

 

[SillyBill]

So we're saying that the fact the Swede's are reputed to be less sociable hs stopped the spread of a highly infectious virus and, in fact, worked as well as a (temporary) lockdown ? Doesn't sound realistic to me, unless of course, the virus actually isn't anywhere near as infectious as we've been told which I can believe actually, since most of what we have been told has been wrong anyway. Where do you want me to start ?

The Swedes are anti-social line is a national stereotype as fitting as Americans thinking all English are posh toffs. It doesn't stack up. I dated a Swede in my early to mid 20s for a few years; the relationship ended as I point blank wouldn't sacrifice my business to move to Sweden and she point black wouldn't entertain permanently moving to England. But I used to spend a lot of time out there and my impression of the Swedes were they were great people, reserved only in the sense that they weren't in your face or brash (which I appreciated TBH) but not reserved so far as not enjoying gatherings, going out to eat etc. They do that just as much as we do, if not more IME. And the population density argument doesn't really wash for me either. Sweden is like Scotland, everyone lives in a few cities (and surprisingly a lot more flats and apartments than houses incidentally) and the rest of the country is largely unspoilt with the odd community scattered here and there.

 

[BristolBiz]

So, where would you rather be living now, Sweden or New Zealand?

 

[John Hemming]

So, where would you rather be living now, Sweden or New Zealand?

On the issue of Covid alone very obviously Sweden. New Zealand has to cut themselves off from the world until there is a "solution" to the issue. However, NZ has some nice places and I don't speak Scandinavian languages particularly well.

 

[simon field]

The government’s handling of this gets more incompetent by the day!

Now it’s quarantine for the Balearic Islands too. That’s like saying “There’s COVID-19 in Cornwall, so anyone who’s visited the Isle of Skye has to self isolate for a fortnight!

You couldn’t make it up.

 

[gpietersz]

The Swedes are anti-social line is a national stereotype as fitting as Americans thinking all English are posh toffs.

Thanks for that. I had my doubts because I am sceptical of national stereotypes in general, but did not comment because I do not know Sweden.

It is amazing how easily people accept national stereotypes.

 

[gpietersz]

That’s like saying “There’s COVID-19 in Cornwall, so anyone who’s visited the Isle of Skye has to self isolate for a fortnight!

Do any countries give different travel advice or restrictions for their citizens coming to the UK depending on whether they are going to Skye or Cornwall.

Most of this is broad brush and always has been. Take a look at vaccination advice when travelling: the government will tell you to vaccines or other precautions for a list of diseases for a country, even if there is only a risk in parts of a country or for people who eat in dodgy places etc.

 

[simon field]

Do any countries give different travel advice or restrictions for their citizens coming to the UK depending on whether they are going to Skye or Cornwall.

Most of this is broad brush and always has been. Take a look at vaccination advice when travelling: the government will tell you to vaccines or other precautions for a list of diseases for a country, even if there is only a risk in parts of a country or for people who eat in dodgy places etc.

None of that excuses the patheticness of this!

So for instance, if Spain wanted to quarantine visitors to the UK coming back to Spain, they’d also quarantine those who’d visited the Falkland Islands?

Nah, I don’t think so.