Taking Back Kherson?
- Thread starter OMGVape
- Start date
If not now, then definitely at some point!
I wonder what difference that would make though?
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More likely Kherson has been stripped of anything of any value and left full of booby traps.
The best troops will pull out first leaving poor conscripts to be the ones trying to slow the advancing Ukrainians (who will be acting cautiously for reasons above), so it the Ukrainians do make a break down the shoreline and shut off the escape routes the only ones left will be those that matter least with old kit.
As soon as that happens the Russians will do an Aleppo on Kherson (having been there months they will have the gps co-ords for everything and have artillery zoomed in on hard points) it will be a pyric victory for the Ukranians
The best troops will pull out first leaving poor conscripts to be the ones trying to slow the advancing Ukrainians (who will be acting cautiously for reasons above), so it the Ukrainians do make a break down the shoreline and shut off the escape routes the only ones left will be those that matter least with old kit.
As soon as that happens the Russians will do an Aleppo on Kherson (having been there months they will have the gps co-ords for everything and have artillery zoomed in on hard points) it will be a pyric victory for the Ukranians
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T
The Byre
On the one side, you have a vast country with a crippled economy - it the good times it was still smaller economically than Italy. Now nobody really knows where Russia stands but one thing is certain - it is struggling and failing to meet the economic needs of its people or its military.
As Napoleon said, an army marches on its stomach. i.e. you win wars economically.
Also, Russia is breaking apart into its regions with local leaders fed up with what is coming out of Moscow. Remember that Khasakstan, Ukraine, Estonia and Latvia were once a part of the Soviet Empire - with East Germany Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, etc., etc. all bolted onto their area of influence - now all gone. We have been eating their lunch for the past 40 years!
Things were bad and now they are rapidly getting much worse - young educated people are leaving in droves to the point where some analysts claim that half of all university-educated graduates with a technical degree have already fled. These are the people that Mother Russia needs the most and they are no longer there!
There was a demographic time bomb already and it was right in that generation that is now entering the workforce. These are the great-grandchildren of the WW2 lost generation that was mostly killed. If you were a Russian male born in 1923, you stood only a one-in-three chance of NOT getting killed by the end of WW2. Nearly all the rest were injured and unable to work. Dead soldiers cannot procreate.
The diminishing supply of their great-grandchildren are the men and boys Putin is trying to call up to fight and die in Ukraine.
The only question I must ask is who dies first - Russia or me? And I am in my 70s and I do not come from a long-lived family! I'll give both candidates 20 years tops! (And remember Liz Truss and the lettuce - the lettuce won, hands down!)
So, who's on the other side? Answer - the US. The giant US armaments industry has decided that Russia must not be allowed to win and that Western smart weapons must be shown to be superior to the primitive artillery of the Eastern Bloc. Putin cannot win and he now realises it - that is why he has pushed the announcement of the abandonment of Kherson onto his generals. (It is what comes after that both militarily and politically that will be interesting!)
Add to all that the levels of rampant corruption in the Russian military machine. Fuel was sold off on the black market, soldiers were used as labourers for private gigs, conscripts were marked up as professional volunteers, phantom payrolls, servicing not done but charged, the lot! It was a nice and cosy jolly for the senior officers, all the way down to senior NCO level - and Putin had to go and spoil it all with his silly invasion!
So Putin cannot win because Lockheed Martin and BAE Systems won't let him. On the other hand, he cannot lose because that could cost him his life and possibly the lives of others around him.
Also, losing would spell the end of Russia as a unified country - not that it was ever particularly unified in the first place! Russia, like so many countries (e.g. UK, US, Germany, Canada, South Africa) is a political construct. The big difference is that the place is so huge that the regions can just ignore the centre.
And the centre right now is weak and getting weaker!
As Napoleon said, an army marches on its stomach. i.e. you win wars economically.
Also, Russia is breaking apart into its regions with local leaders fed up with what is coming out of Moscow. Remember that Khasakstan, Ukraine, Estonia and Latvia were once a part of the Soviet Empire - with East Germany Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, etc., etc. all bolted onto their area of influence - now all gone. We have been eating their lunch for the past 40 years!
Things were bad and now they are rapidly getting much worse - young educated people are leaving in droves to the point where some analysts claim that half of all university-educated graduates with a technical degree have already fled. These are the people that Mother Russia needs the most and they are no longer there!
There was a demographic time bomb already and it was right in that generation that is now entering the workforce. These are the great-grandchildren of the WW2 lost generation that was mostly killed. If you were a Russian male born in 1923, you stood only a one-in-three chance of NOT getting killed by the end of WW2. Nearly all the rest were injured and unable to work. Dead soldiers cannot procreate.
The diminishing supply of their great-grandchildren are the men and boys Putin is trying to call up to fight and die in Ukraine.
The only question I must ask is who dies first - Russia or me? And I am in my 70s and I do not come from a long-lived family! I'll give both candidates 20 years tops! (And remember Liz Truss and the lettuce - the lettuce won, hands down!)
So, who's on the other side? Answer - the US. The giant US armaments industry has decided that Russia must not be allowed to win and that Western smart weapons must be shown to be superior to the primitive artillery of the Eastern Bloc. Putin cannot win and he now realises it - that is why he has pushed the announcement of the abandonment of Kherson onto his generals. (It is what comes after that both militarily and politically that will be interesting!)
Add to all that the levels of rampant corruption in the Russian military machine. Fuel was sold off on the black market, soldiers were used as labourers for private gigs, conscripts were marked up as professional volunteers, phantom payrolls, servicing not done but charged, the lot! It was a nice and cosy jolly for the senior officers, all the way down to senior NCO level - and Putin had to go and spoil it all with his silly invasion!
So Putin cannot win because Lockheed Martin and BAE Systems won't let him. On the other hand, he cannot lose because that could cost him his life and possibly the lives of others around him.
Also, losing would spell the end of Russia as a unified country - not that it was ever particularly unified in the first place! Russia, like so many countries (e.g. UK, US, Germany, Canada, South Africa) is a political construct. The big difference is that the place is so huge that the regions can just ignore the centre.
And the centre right now is weak and getting weaker!
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I think it's the other way. The generals are finally growing a pair and doing the only thing they sensibly can.
Belarus will fall as soon as all the Belarussians fighting for Ukraine return home, battle hardened and spoiling for a fight.
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T
The Byre
1. Belarus is not deploying soldiers into Ukraine, nor are there any plans to do so. It would not be in their interests to do so as it would destabilise the very unpopular Lukashenko government.
2. Russia is using Belarus as a base for military operations and support as a result of massive pressure from Putin who visited Lukashenko last month in person.
3. Russian generals do not grow pairs. Like soldiers the world over, they follow orders - in this case, that was orders to appear on television.
4. By forcing them to go on TV, woodenly reciting a cheesy script, Putin was able to make the generals the focus of the abandonment of the city even before it was completed.
5. As Ukraine has made the supply of food and ammunition to the city impossible, they had no choice but to withdraw across the river.
2. Russia is using Belarus as a base for military operations and support as a result of massive pressure from Putin who visited Lukashenko last month in person.
3. Russian generals do not grow pairs. Like soldiers the world over, they follow orders - in this case, that was orders to appear on television.
4. By forcing them to go on TV, woodenly reciting a cheesy script, Putin was able to make the generals the focus of the abandonment of the city even before it was completed.
5. As Ukraine has made the supply of food and ammunition to the city impossible, they had no choice but to withdraw across the river.
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I don't think Belarus is that unstable as a country. Lukashenko is unlikely to remain as leader, he will be ousted, possibly by his own circle or during mass protests in the future but even then, I'm not sure if Belarussian people are that bothered. He's balancing everything, being Russian leaning whilst also not wanting to write his own obituary. Belarussians don't want war with Ukraine but they're not at war, they're just being used as a military base, which I think is part of their obligation anyway? Maybe Lukashenko is hoping to ride out the storm, maybe he thinks Russia will collapse anyway and he can grab some more land next year to grow some more potatoes.
The retreat is an organised one. The generals know the supply lines are being targeted and it's taking too long to get munitions to the front. So they're withdrawing back toward their borders, re-grouping and trying to hold on to Crimea and the eastern edge of Ukraine.
I did see mention of a possible get out, Crimea becomes neutral and a buffer zone, Russia returns to its original borders. The conflict ends. Russia can say they have completed the special operation and paint it as a success, whilst trying to rebuild all the damaged tanks and aircraft with holes in.
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@The Byre sums it up very well as per usual. I don't think Ukraine will be negotiating any time soon and I don't think they will stop until they liberate Crimea.
As mentioned above Putin has pushed his generals out into the spot light to take the flack for the latest round of retreats. Putin has always been held up as the can do leader, not quite so can do at the moment and it was his direct orders that sent the troops in. He's knows things are looking pretty shaky for himself right now the gloss is coming off at an alarming rate.
Will he be gone by Christmas, I don't know but think his days are numbered and can't see him lasting out through 2023
As mentioned above Putin has pushed his generals out into the spot light to take the flack for the latest round of retreats. Putin has always been held up as the can do leader, not quite so can do at the moment and it was his direct orders that sent the troops in. He's knows things are looking pretty shaky for himself right now the gloss is coming off at an alarming rate.
Will he be gone by Christmas, I don't know but think his days are numbered and can't see him lasting out through 2023
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T
The Byre
My apologies! Yes, I must learn to read things properly!
I make no predictions because nobody can predict that dark country we call the future. But two years more of war in Ukraine would surprise me - the pressure from all sides in Russia and Belarus is growing from all sides - the pressure was always there from the liberal side, but now the growling discontent from former pro-Soviet figures is making itself felt. They are asking themselves "Just how much longer do we have to put up with this nonsense?"
The Russian economy is failing and failing fast - inflation is at 14% (officially!) and the Bank of Russia has gone over to Erdogan economics and is trying to beat inflation by dropping the base rate from 20% to 7.5% - and that is working brilliantly in Turkey - NOT!
Until now, the BoR was doing all the right things and keeping Turkey-like super-inflation at bay, so I assume that some fairly hefty arm-twisting has been going on behind the scenes! The one thing they have going for them is fairly massive gold reserves. Selling that lot to keep the lights on (so to speak) would be a last-ditch effort to prop up the system and depress the world gold price. It could also blow their chances of taking part in a gold-backed pan-Eastern CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency).
________________________________
But here's something to think about - are we heading into the mother of all bull traps?
Scenario - Ukraine wins.
Putin is thrown out of office.
Optimism returns to Planet Ponzi.
The Fed says that it is now 'pausing' QT (quantitative tightening).
Wall Street talk of a Fed-pivot grows.
The asset markets take off like never before and stocks go to new unsustainable highs.
"This is the new paradigm!" cry the creatures in designer leisurewear in the trading rooms.
Punters pile in where angels (e.g. W.Buffett) fear to tread.
"This is the new normal!" cry those creatures, flashing their Rolexes.
Average PE ratios go to 50:1 - madness grips the markets!
The markets crash to The Valley of Despair!
I.m not saying that it will happen - but it is something to be aware of and recognise if/when it happens!
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Interestingly there was a bit of an upbeat this week when on Thursday we saw the biggest increase in a day on the US exchanges since 2020, albeit coming from a bit of a low place, but its good to keep us on our toes. However not waiting for any real out come in Ukraine planet ****** Ponzi is certainly unravelling pretty fast.My apologies! Yes, I must learn to read things properly!
I make no predictions because nobody can predict that dark country we call the future. But two years more of war in Ukraine would surprise me - the pressure from all sides in Russia and Belarus is growing from all sides - the pressure was always there from the liberal side, but now the growling discontent from former pro-Soviet figures is making itself felt. They are asking themselves "Just how much longer do we have to put up with this nonsense?"
The Russian economy is failing and failing fast - inflation is at 14% (officially!) and the Bank of Russia has gone over to Erdogan economics and is trying to beat inflation by dropping the base rate from 20% to 7.5% - and that is working brilliantly in Turkey - NOT!
Until now, the BoR was doing all the right things and keeping Turkey-like super-inflation at bay, so I assume that some fairly hefty arm-twisting has been going on behind the scenes! The one thing they have going for them is fairly massive gold reserves. Selling that lot to keep the lights on (so to speak) would be a last-ditch effort to prop up the system and depress the world gold price. It could also blow their chances of taking part in a gold-backed pan-Eastern CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency).
________________________________
But here's something to think about - are we heading into the mother of all bull traps?
Scenario - Ukraine wins.
Putin is thrown out of office.
Optimism returns to Planet Ponzi.
The Fed says that it is now 'pausing' QT (quantitative tightening).
Wall Street talk of a Fed-pivot grows.
The asset markets take off like never before and stocks go to new unsustainable highs.
"This is the new paradigm!" cry the creatures in designer leisurewear in the trading rooms.
Punters pile in where angels (e.g. W.Buffett) fear to tread.
"This is the new normal!" cry those creatures, flashing their Rolexes.
Average PE ratios go to 50:1 - madness grips the markets!
The markets crash to The Valley of Despair!
I.m not saying that it will happen - but it is something to be aware of and recognise if/when it happens!
Pound has done well (although really due to the $ falling out of favour) probably being pushed up ready for a big tree shake on Thursday, ill swagger around for a couple of days flashing the Tagg trying not to be too depressed by your weekend post you always seem to get me at the weekends with the bad news outcomes ..............???
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Thought the scenes from the Ukraine of a liberated Kherson were very uplifting, hopefully the start of a better period for these people.
Couldn’t help noticing how all those men of various ages had stood and fought a superpower, not given much of a chance by anyone, myself included at the start. Just shows what can be achieved with a little help, but kudos to a very brave Nation.
Couldn’t help noticing how all those men of various ages had stood and fought a superpower, not given much of a chance by anyone, myself included at the start. Just shows what can be achieved with a little help, but kudos to a very brave Nation.
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They did. So China decided to build an impressive military and they did a quite good job at it. They getting ready for an invasion into Taiwan, Russia and India.Hopefully China/N Korea etc have seen what the west is capable of when communist dictators step out of line
Nato is very little worried about Russia / Ukraine but significantly worried about China preparing for war.
From a military point a lot has changed in Nato. All is being streamlined towards same modern military gear aka f35, rockets and artillery. Very intresting to see south Korea can supply shelves to Ukraine attilery that fits just fine. Maybe the yanks making sure they got local supplies in Asia for a war.
Do you thinks the US is buying weapons from South courier that works in Ukraine is a coincidence? All the gear and logistics is being tested and setup in Ukraine for a possible war with china.
Whatever happens in Kherson is relatively unimportant in comparison how logistic and streamlining military tech in nato is proceeding.
All in Kherson is neither that important as a military staging ground as made out in media. Symbolic yes, tactical so so.
Will Putin use smaller nuclear weapons in Ukraine, if he has to he will and none of the Western countries will do anything about it. There is nothing in it for nato to make a fuss about it and nothing is more dangerous than a leader that becomes weak but has access to a huge weapon arsenal.
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I think the whole world has realised that Russia is not the super power we all thought it was. Hopefully China/N Korea etc have seen what the west is capable of when communist dictators step out of line
You think people would have realized after the collapse of the USSR revealed it was basically bankrupt.
Of course, the USA isn't really all it's cracked up to be. $2.3Trillion to partially control an airport and a hotel in Afghanistan seems like a bad deal, add that to the 300,000 imaginary soldiers, and its starting to look more like Russia.
Or maybe they'll rely on the $400Bn F35 jet. One that can't fly near thunderstorms, can't go supersonic for more than a minute, and doesn't like the cold?
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The Guardian has reported according to Russian media sources, the Ukrainian army has entered the town of Herois’ke, in the Kinburn Peninsula, following an amphibious operation, as heavy fighting continues across the region.
This is a small peninsular south of Kerson and on the Eastern side of the river
This is a small peninsular south of Kerson and on the Eastern side of the river
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No proof as yet, initial reports based on the debris suggest it is a type of missile that is also currently used by Ukraine for air defence…
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That does seem to be currently thinking on the subject.
As to Russia leaving Kherson, I suspect it is tactical. Their approach wasn't working, so they are going for long distance, and very heavy, shelling.
At the start of all this the press wanted us to believe Putin could only keep this up for 10 days. Now we are being told Ukraine is winning. I suspect this is much like the propoganda used in all wars and short of popping over to Ukraine to see for ourselves we don't have much information.
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I thought it was closer - I was in Essex a few months ago and a few policemen were dressed as though they were about to invade Poland!
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How are the winning? Or what does that even mean? Even if for some miracle they might be able to get Russia out of some territory the cost will be very high which makes winning pointless as it will destroy their country complete in the process.
If the Russians have to use a battlefield nuclear warhead they will do so and NATO wont do a thing about it after all if the Russians need a justification they can always point at the Yanks using nuclear weapon an largely civilian population twice.
With this statement it shows clearly that taking a side is very easy and media does a good job laying out a specific narrative. NATO including Poland and US advised this was a Ukrainian fired missile. U
It is very concerning to see how Zelensky is pushing very hard to get NATO involved and how trigger happy Poland in the first couple hours was before looking at the evidence. I would have expected for Z. to at least apologies to Poland for killing 2 of their citizens by accident instead of blaming Russia for it and take ownership of his military making a mistake.
I personally think this guy is very dangerous and trying to get everybody involved in his dispute with Russia. It is technical a dispute as Ukraine and Russia never declared war on each other. He should have taken the offer Russia made in the first week of invasion. Not a great deal but certainly better what he can get out of it now.
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An article I read yesterday suggested that some of the NATO leaders are starting to think the same thing...
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How are the winning? Or what does that even mean? Even if for some miracle they might be able to get Russia out of some territory the cost will be very high which makes winning pointless as it will destroy their country complete in the process.
If the Russians have to use a battlefield nuclear warhead they will do so and NATO wont do a thing about it after all if the Russians need a justification they can always point at the Yanks using nuclear weapon an largely civilian population twice.
In answer to your question 'How are they winning', I have no answer. I am just being told that by the press.
Personally, I don't think they are/can/or will
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