Swine Flu - another reason not to shop??

[Wild Goose]

I quite honestly haven't heard anything about the swine flu on the news since my last post. I don't know if this is just because it's being kept to more local news in affected areas, or if they've decided it's too boring to follow after all. Maybe I've been too busy to notice.

There's a news blackout on swine fever. My good friend who runs a hospital tells me they're stockpiling drugs like nobody's business, but are no longer discouraging staff from taking leave because the national spread has been slowed. The ETA for the Tsunami wave is Autumn.

 

[adam]

There's a news blackout on swine fever. My good friend who runs a hospital tells me they're stockpiling drugs like nobody's business, but are no longer discouraging staff from taking leave because the national spread has been slowed. The ETA for the Tsunami wave is Autumn.

Well that's it then, we might as well give up now as the people who faked the moon landing and killed Diana have now stopped the media warning us of our impending doom.

Shame, I was looking forward to Christmas this year. Anyone want to be a car, flat and a few vending machines?

 

[Julian]

Well that's it then, we might as well give up now as the people who faked the moon landing and killed Diana have now stopped the media warning us of our impending doom.

Shame, I was looking forward to Christmas this year. Anyone want to be a car, flat and a few vending machines?

I might be interested in the vending machines. How many will I need in order to supply me with enough food and water to survive in my flu bunker for at least 6 months of isolation and how many 50p pieces will I need to stockpile so that I can get the contents out?

- Julian

 

[adam]

We would put the machines in your bunker on Free vend so you would not need any 50p pieces!

We should drink 2 litres a day or 8 vending bottles so 1,460 bottles should do you. Then if we said 1 chocolate bar, 2 bags of crips and a bag of healthy nuts or dried fruits etc a day for food, we are looking at 730 items there.

So 3 snack vending machines would be enough and 3 bottle vendors.

Total cost around £16,000 plus VAT.

 

[Wild Goose]

We would put the machines in your bunker on Free vend so you would not need any 50p pieces!

We should drink 2 litres a day or 8 vending bottles so 1,460 bottles should do you. Then if we said 1 chocolate bar, 2 bags of crips and a bag of healthy nuts or dried fruits etc a day for food, we are looking at 730 items there.

So 3 snack vending machines would be enough and 3 bottle vendors.

Total cost around £16,000 plus VAT.

So that's 2190 items for £16,000 (plus VAT) which works out around £8 an item. What size chocolate bar can Julian expect for £8? Are the crisps a family-sized pack? Can you guarantee there will be no pork scratchings?

 

[adam]

No, we invoice you for the stock afterwards. The £16k was to buy the machines!!

If you don't want Pork Scratchings you don't have to have pork scratchings!!

 

[Wild Goose]

No, we invoice you for the stock afterwards. The £16k was to buy the machines!!

If you don't want Pork Scratchings you don't have to have pork scratchings!!

Blimey, so that's even more than £8 an item! Better stick to tap water, Julian.

If the machine will cost £8 an item, and the items say 50p each, why's it called Free Vend?:|

 

[adam]

Because it is used in offices where staff do not have to use cash to make the purchase. It is more common on coffee machines.

Look at water coolers or water out the tap. You buy a sink and pay for the plumbing but then the water company charge you for the water on top!! What a cheek.

We don't put a vending machine in generally unless is is vending 1,000 items per month (7p an item) with coffee it works about 3p per cup.

Unless of course a customer wants it due to night shifts or wanting to keep staff refreshed etc.

 

[Julian]

Because it is used in offices where staff do not have to use cash to make the purchase. It is more common on coffee machines.

At the first company where I had my first full-time job after university, in 1982, the free-vend aspect of the vending (coffee only) machine was used to great strategic effect.

To encourage staff to get into the office early and to work late (and we did need encouragement, we were mostly recent graduates) the receptionist had the key for the vending machine and she switched it to free vend at 6:00pm and back to charging at 9:00am the following morning so if you got into the office before 9:00am or stayed after 6:00pm you got free coffee. This actually did affect behaviour (again, being mostly recent graduates, we were cheapskates).

Bear in mind that this was the 1980s and these were pretty crude mechanical devices. I suspect now that one can get vending machines that can automatically switch in and out of free vend mode electronically via a timer. I haven't thought of it for years but I remember rather fondly the ritual of the receptionist opening up the vending machine twice a day and flipping the free-vend switch.

- Julian

 

[Wild Goose]

I haven't thought of it for years but I remember rather fondly the ritual of the receptionist opening up the vending machine twice a day and flipping the free-vend switch.

- Julian

Great story Julian. Reminded me of our receptionist in my first job as a trainee accountant; the old girl was in charge of the stationery cupboard and stubbornly refused to issue a replacement bic pen unless presented with the expired original.

A chartered accountant of about 45 - but not a partner in the firm - was refused a "replacement" pen even though he had the most important client in his portfolio sat in the boardroom waiting impatiently to sign his accounts. Blue ink was no good - it wouldn't photocopy - and there was not a black pen to be found anywhere.

Eventually yours truly saved the day by buying a very expensive Parker from nearby W H Smith and presenting it to the irate client as a gift, with which the accounts were duly signed off. The receptionist, who was also guardian of petty cash, threw a six at my expense claim for the Parker (which I guess cost about the same as a year's supply of bic pens).

Thanks for resurrecting that memory. It strikes me that if our old receptionists haven't yet expired maybe the House of Commons' bursar could use them.

 

[adam]

Great story. Yes they are automatic now. Some have up to three charging periods a day. Discounts over lunch etc.

 

[movietub]

This went a bit off topic!

Anyway latest figures show the spread of the virus is almost 1000 cases per week (reported) in the UK. Surely now the doubters have to accept this is going to start causing a lot of disruption. That many people sat at home, away from work... Not to mention the cost to companies.

Or am I still alone in my views?? Becasue I still maintain this has the potential to harm the average business more than the economic downturn.

I also notice on WHO's website that the Isle of Man has just ONE reported case. I feel very sorry for that individual - no doubt the whole island knows who he is and where he is at any given time!

Also noticed that we have an increadibly high infection rate for a modern country. Almost a fifth of the entire USA.

 

[movietub]

And how did this end up in time out? It's a thread started to discuss the effect of a pandemic on UK businesses! Fairly relevant for discussion in business circles one would have thought.

 

[cycloneuk]

We now have 1 case in my local area, girlfriend is starting to worry because she is pregnant. I have noticed the West Midlands is not fairing very well, good few hundread cases every day their.

 

[movietub]

We now have 1 case in my local area, girlfriend is starting to worry because she is pregnant. I have noticed the West Midlands is not fairing very well, good few hundread cases every day their.

We got first 3 in Peterborough yesterday. I understand the fear of flu when pregnant. Must be a little unsettling to say the least.

Thats just one example of people avoiding certain places during a pandemic. When 500 people in your area are diagnosed will you/your girlfriend be going to crowded places, resturants, shops etc more than strictly required?

Will the postman? Bus driver? any number of people we rely on each day to keep our lives and businesses ticking over smoothly.

 

[An Oasis]

...Or am I still alone in my views?? Becasue I still maintain this has the potential to harm the average business more than the economic downturn...

From pandemic to party, I kid you not people are having swine flu parties, bring along your infected and get in for free - must have a WHO level 7 rating.

 

[movietub]

From pandemic to party, I kid you not people are having swine flu parties, bring along your infected and get in for free - must have a WHO level 7 rating.

I read the same. I understand the principal, its better to get it young than old... But come on! By the time those kids are in their teens the vaccine will be standard and proven anyway.

Personally I won't be attending. I'm not worried about the flu, I'm just allergic to crap parents

 

[cycloneuk]

We got first 3 in Peterborough yesterday. I understand the fear of flu when pregnant. Must be a little unsettling to say the least.

Thats just one example of people avoiding certain places during a pandemic. When 500 people in your area are diagnosed will you/your girlfriend be going to crowded places, resturants, shops etc more than strictly required?

Will the postman? Bus driver? any number of people we rely on each day to keep our lives and businesses ticking over smoothly.

To be honest i'm not overly concerned about it at present and won't be avoiding places but if it carries on getting worse then i would say my g/f definatly will avoid going to certain places.

 

[movietub]

To be honest i'm not overly concerned about it at present and won't be avoiding places but if it carries on getting worse then i would say my g/f definatly will avoid going to certain places.

I feel the same way, Im not worried about the flu itself... Obviously if youre pregnant such things tend to be a little more not worth the risk!

The problem is people have the option to stay home and demand pay if the work place is considered unsafe - and employers feel the need to send people home if their is a risk. In previous pandemics that just didnt happen. No work, no pay.

So in a nutshell I think infrastructure itself will be damaged, which in turn affects business and trading.

 

[An Oasis]

I read the same. I understand the principal, its better to get it young than old... But come on!

According to the medical mob it will be less debilitating if contracted during the summer...but this latest advice makes a mockery of the pandemic level 6 raised a few weeks ago.

Which seems to have alarmed some people, unnecessarily.

 

[Cabal46]

I wonder when people will start to be concerned?

Just fyi, i would highly recommend you familiarise yourselves with the traits of exponential curves. We have 6-8 weeks to prepare before the full reality of a pandemic becomes blatantly obvious for those whop are still sceptical. Deaths will happen in great numbers, and those who dismiss this as a 'mild flu' are spreading dangerous complacency.

Also be aware of something called cytokine storm !!

Regarding the effects on business, here's a scary paper-based exercise the BoE did in November 2006!!!!!!!!

 

[An Oasis]

I wonder when people will start to be concerned?

Just fyi, i would highly recommend you familiarise yourselves with the traits of exponential curves. We have 6-8 weeks to prepare before the full reality of a pandemic becomes blatantly obvious for those whop are still sceptical.

Well we must be well past the sell by date then! Breathes a sigh of relief and then goes on cut funding to 3000 ****ty organisations who are just jumping on the fund raising bandwagon.

 

[cjd]

I was sat outside in the sun having a beer and bbq with doctor neighbour discussing the fact that flu was now in our town.

The medical services have now abandoned containment and are into treatment ie it can't be contained.

'Treatment' means telling people to stay at home and get over it.

They are now expecting 100,000 new cases per day by August.

We are amazingly lucky. This pandemic is the first for 40 years and it happens to be fairly benign.

Imagine what we'd be doing if it had been bird flu instead. There's no way I'd be sat outside with a doctor for a start. You could expect everyone you know to get seriously ill and a good proportion to die. Even with a form of flu with low grade symptoms, the NHS is finding it difficult to get staff to man the emergency clinics.

My wife visited a school that was closed 5 days later because of infection. It was an interesting period waiting to see whether we had it. We didn't know whether we should meet others or lock ourselves inside. I suspect the decision would at least have been easier if what we might have had was potentially fatal.

 

[cycloneuk]

I wonder when people will start to be concerned?

Just fyi, i would highly recommend you familiarise yourselves with the traits of exponential curves. We have 6-8 weeks to prepare before the full reality of a pandemic becomes blatantly obvious for those whop are still sceptical. Deaths will happen in great numbers, and those who dismiss this as a 'mild flu' are spreading dangerous complacency.

Also be aware of something called cytokine storm !!

Regarding the effects on business, here's a scary paper-based exercise the BoE did in November 2006!!!!!!!!

Grow up, this swine flu is weaker than the common cold which kills more people, yes people will sadly die but the normal flu kills way more people every year. Did you also know that the last heatwave we had a few years back now, killed over 200,000 people in the UK.

 

[movietub]

So a forecast 15% off work within 2 months. Rising to a possible 50%.

Lets face it even 10% off work would make life pretty awkward. Also not looking forward to the fact that most large organisations are opting to maintain organised chaos by simply shutting some services down completely. Rather than try and stretch the workforce.

So some tube, buses and trains will be indifinately cancelled. Post will take days to arrive. Utility companies will become totally unreliable.

Not to mention the fact the NHS employs less staff than the number of people likely to be recieving treatment for flu at any one time! Imagine the waiting rooms (don't).

I do hope the people that earlier in this thread scoffed and blamed media hype, now realise that despite the media frenzy its quite important to actually judge and prepare for a situation yourself.

And this was always going to be a huge issue for the world to deal with. Not the health issue or the minute chance of dying. Just the disruption.

Global disruption of infrastructure in a network reliant world.

 

[movietub]

Grow up, this swine flu is weaker than the common cold which kills more people, yes people will sadly die but the normal flu kills way more people every year. Did you also know that the last heatwave we had a few years back now, killed over 200,000 people in the UK.

No one made any fuss (on these boards) about the number of people who will or will not die. Frankly I couldn't care less.

I think you have missed the point quite considerably.

The fear is disruption of infrastructure due to short staffing and people generally becoming very unreliable to organise anything with. That will affect everyones business, in most cases more than the recession.

It's a tad ironic for you to tell others to grow up when your own logic is so basic you assume we will be harping on about how many million will be dead next week! It also suggest you had not even considered the main ways this will definately affect your life.

 

[An Oasis]

'Treatment' means telling people to stay at home and get over it.

Mixed messages old boy, certain sectors of the health service have been encouraging contact; "swine flu parties" are to be encouraged! What a mess, who knows what is really happening and what it is meant to mean, only in the public sector, eh?

 

[Dawg]

No one made any fuss (on these boards) about the number of people who will or will not die. Frankly I couldn't care less.

I think you have missed the point quite considerably.

The fear is disruption of infrastructure due to short staffing and people generally becoming very unreliable to organise anything with. That will affect everyones business, in most cases more than the recession.

It's a tad ironic for you to tell others to grow up when your own logic is so basic you assume we will be harping on about how many million will be dead next week! It also suggest you had not even considered the main ways this will definately affect your life.

Really? You seem convinced about the serious impact but couldn't care less about the human cost, only the ramifications on business? Strange value system you have there.
Should we really share how you value information on swine flu? Or might that be rather esoteric too?

I don't know the reality, (if there is such a thing), but have lived through so many aiyee-we're-all-gonna-die panics that I'm sceptical by sheer force of boredom.

 

[movietub]

Mixed messages old boy, certain sectors of the health service have been encouraging contact; "swine flu parties" are to be encouraged! What a mess, who knows what is really happening and what it is meant to mean, only in the public sector, eh?

The problem is, that even as a sensible level headed realist, I have to admit that I would probably stay clear of a known hot spot. Or in fact any place where contact with 1000's of people was expected.

I sure most of the people that say they are not in the least bit worried will at some point make the decision to deviate from their normal habits. Probably just a little.

But collectively it will casue more people to deviate than the recession. What the 'public sector' workers hear and repeat is probably of little consequence. The bottom line is people don't like having flu, its nasty. People tend to try and avoid it!

 

[cjd]

Mixed messages old boy, certain sectors of the health service have been encouraging contact

I don't think so. That's been reported and may indeed be happening but it's not policy and is being heavily warned against.

The problem is that it can kill - altho' it seems to only kill people in risk groups - but also because it's almost certain to mutate so you may get the bugg3r twice if you get it earlier than you naturally would.

 

[movietub]

Really? You seem convinced about the serious impact but couldn't care less about the human cost, only the ramifications on business? Strange value system you have there.
Should we really share how you value information on swine flu? Or might that be rather esoteric too?

I don't know the reality, (if there is such a thing), but have lived through so many aiyee-we're-all-gonna-die panics that I'm sceptical by sheer force of boredom.

But their is no evidence a substantial number of people will die compared to any number of other circumstances.

You are a case in point. You accept that previous hype and your own lack of interest has affected your ability to judge the situation for yourself.

The death toll is both unkown and impossible to predict. So from that point of view it is not worth debate - that is best left to the media and for most part the figures are meaningless.

What we do know beyond doubt is major disruption will occur and it will affect businesses on every level. And this is a business forum.

 

[Cabal46]

The CDC did modelling and expect there are currently 1million infected in US and the UK MP used same extrapolation modelling to say 100k would be infected per day at end of August, hence my reference to exponential curves.

Someone said i should grow up; i find that a shockingly naive comment.

Some facts for you:

-It's spreading in the summer...and fast. Does 'normal flu' do that?
-Every death, the media says 'underlying medical conditions'; doesn't that make you suspicious of the true facts and indeed the actual 'news' they want you to know.
-Baxter has received $1billion to create vaccinations that won't be FDA approved. They will negate any clinical trials, so go ahead and get the jab, if you want to 'feel safe'.
-American deaths:
Arizona: 1.31%, 10 out of 761
California: 1.06%, 21 out of 1985
Michigan: 1.45%, 7 out of 484
North Carolina: 0.78%, 2 out of 255
New Jersey: 0.78%, 9 out of 1159
New York: 1.76%, 44 out of 2499
Oregon: 1.09%, 4 out of 366
Utah: 1.07%, 10 out of 920
Assume a 45% infection load at high-end 1.76%, the death toll goes to 2.97 million people just the in US using the summertime mortality rates, without factoring in the multiplying effects of a bad economy and a probable collapse/overwhelming of the medical establishment, expect the winter to be very bad.

Just read updates on flu tracker to get the real stories from people and please refrain from personal, petulant comments.

In 6-8 weeks you can call me what you bloody want, but i am trying to help you understand what's about to happen.

 

[movietub]

I still don't understand why this was moved into time out. It's a current topic with a massive effect on business!

I take my hat off to those with the fore sight and level of independant thought to realise the full impact of what is just weeks away.

 

[cycloneuk]

I feel that some people are just trying to create fear over something that may not be so bad.

Lets take a look at the UK's latest stats: nearly 8000 cases and only 3 reported deaths, and all had serious underlying health problems so the actual swine flu may have only been a small contributing factor.

I think that puts the current UK death rate at around 0.0375% which is a very low mortality rate. So unless it mutates into something more deadly during winter, i will not be overly concerned.

 

[movietub]

I feel that some people are just trying to create fear over something that may not be so bad.

Lets take a look at the UK's latest stats: nearly 8000 cases and only 3 reported deaths, and all had serious underlying health problems so the actual swine flu may have only been a small contributing factor.

I think that puts the current UK death rate at around 0.0375% which is a very low mortality rate. So unless it mutates into something more deadly during winter, i will not be overly concerned.

*Sigh*

Another one that got caught by the death toll headlines...

(what about the issues posed for discussion in this thread though?)

 

[cycloneuk]

*Sigh*

Another one that got caught by the death toll headlines...

(what about the issues posed for discussion in this thread though?)

Well it kind of puts things into perspective, this isn't armageddon and the world as been through pandemics many times before. The UK and most developed countries have been preparing for this for years and we are one of the best prepared countries imo.

While it will no doubt effect businesses, i really don't think it will be on the level some people are suggesting. I kind of hope more people stay at home and order online since that will mean more business for me.

Oh and the flu jab, didn't the last one kill more than the actual flu? i for one will decline the offer.

 

[movietub]

Well it kind of puts things into perspective, this isn't armageddon and the world as been through pandemics many times before. The UK and most developed countries have been preparing for this for years and we are one of the best prepared countries imo.

While it will no doubt effect businesses, i really don't think it will be on the level some people are suggesting. I kind of hope more people stay at home and order online since that will mean more business for me.

Oh and the flu jab, didn't the last one kill more than the actual flu? i for one will decline the offer.

The Uk, in fact the developed world, has never before been so dependant on infrastructure and things running smoothly. Likewise in during previous pandemics the workforce had a choice - brave it at work or don't get paid a penny. Probably lose your job.

Nowadays not only are people warned by professionals to avoid certain places during a pandemic (try firing someone for following advice in the NHS leaflet) but employers feel pressured to actually send people home and close down departments.

So this is entirely different in that respect. The death toll will be much lower, this country is fantastically well prepared from a healthcare point of view. Until things shift up a gear there is little more the NHS or WHO or any of the other bodies involved could have done. I think most people accept that.

But from the point of view of disruption this is a threat that we have not suffered on such a scale before.

15% of the UK's workers staying at home would be unthinkable. Just imagine how many day to day actions you make actually involve a huge chain of people all doing their job to run effeciently.

Post
Transport
Shopping
Petrol stations

All things all businesses rely on to happen smoothly most of the time.

 

[Dawg]

What we do know beyond doubt is major disruption will occur and it will affect businesses on every level. And this is a business forum.

I which case I think we should follow the FT advice and go short on old people. (Altho' the market seems to disagree).

 

[An Oasis]

I which case I think we should follow the FT advice and go short on old people. (Altho' the market seems to disagree).

Got to be worth a punt, ta!

 

[Iwillmakeit]

Swine flu was started by the US government.

have a listen this video was published before all the media hype;

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fIUKAp4C2YA