Recession - winners and losers

[Mark T Jones]

Just for fun here are a few of my predictions


Tobacco - constant or small increase

Alcohol - spend down, consumption up (shift from bars to home consumption)

Lipstick/ makeup - increase

Restaurants

High end and low end increase
Mid market crisis

Clothes - see Restaurants

Cars- decrease

Fuel - stable consumption

Feel free to add or argue!

 

[japancool]

Very high end fashion will probably increase as the rich get richer.

 

[Mark T Jones]

Very high end fashion will probably increase as the rich get richer.

Yip. Discount and premium are often the winners

 

[Bob Morgan]

Matching Funeral Urns for the couple that previously had 'Everything!'

 

[MBE2017]

Fuel down, reduced journeys, lower demand.
Gas and Electric down, forced reduction of demand due to costs.
Blankets, Quilts, sleeping bags sales up due to lower heating.
Property, still increasing in value and rents due to new regulations and undersupply, huge demand.
Fresh food increase in sales, processed reduced.

 

[WaveJumper]

Chocolate sales up ..... note to self check Cadburys shares.

 

[ctrlbrk]

Lipstick/ makeup - increase

Curious about this one. Why increase?

 

[japancool]

Curious about this one. Why increase?

People looking for sugar-daddies?

 

[Mark T Jones]

Curious about this one. Why increase?

At a guess, low cost feel-good.

 

[JEREMY HAWKE]

Cheap mechanics those that can't afford a new car might not be able to go to a good garage as the cost rocket !

 

[Mark T Jones]

Chocolate sales up ..... note to self check Cadburys shares.

Cadbury! Montezuma, please

 

[japancool]

I'm going to guess that Premier Foods and Allied British Foods will do well - they produce most of the own-brand stuff for supermarkets.

 

[Excel-Expert]

Curious about this one. Why increase?

The lipstick effect is a known and documented side effect of recessions. The theory is because people can't afford to treat themselves to holidays or expensive goods they treat themselves to lower-end luxury stuff like lipstick (link).

Revlon went bust a few weeks ago because of supply issues. They then managed to refinance/restructure its self and now their shares are now worth 600% of what they were pre going bust. There seems to be a lot of speculation they will benefit from the lipstick effect hence the big increase,

 

[clyde123]

I have always reckoned that anything "vice" will do well in a recession.

That includes what we might call 'soft-vice' like entertainment and enjoyable foods. Feel good factor - forget your troubles.
All the way up to 'hard-vice' like the stuff we would never admit to , and alcohol, gambling.