Recession 2020 and Beyond

[SillyBill]

I've been saying for a while this is the calm before the storm. The tsunami hasn't hit yet, only the earthquake. I have a relative who is a courier at Hermes, he says his round is surpassing Xmas levels and the vast majority is non-essential. Clearly you don't get that level of consumption during a depression. And that is where we're headed. This spending is on borrowed time IMO given many of these people won't have jobs or thus far been sheltered from the economic reality.

The part of my business flying at the moment (DIY customers) won't last in my estimation, why? Because demand has simply been brought forward given a surge of people with lots of time on their hands. There won't be any extra of it over time. People won't paint the garage door twice for the fun of it...So even areas we are doing well I consider to be a flash-in-the-pan and reduced income further down the line.

I am looking to diversify our business into a few new areas which should help us offset some of the losses in other bits of the business. I expect to do well in 2022-23 where perhaps the economy is about at the same size as it was Q4 2019 and I have less competitors to be up against. Our opportunity isn't increased business in the short run, its less players in the aftermath....

 

[Clinton]

Perhaps the smart ones will survive while the idiots will (at least some) die off.

I wish. Unfortunately, Corvid-19 doesn't choose based on level of stupidity. It's based on age, existing health conditions etc. So the stupid ones may be the ones who survive!

... who have the appearance of our Muslim friends

You can't say this nowadays but in areas where ethnic minorities congregate, you'll often find that they work to their own rules and cultures! And that they are not too fussed about doing the socially responsible thing. So I can see this happening with the close muslim communities as much as it's happening with orthodox jews.

The media have screamed a few times that BAME people are much more likely to die from this virus.

Yes, the left wing press has been screaming about this and demanding enquiries into why more BAME people are dying. They are up in arms and probably believe there's some racism / ethic cleansing going on!

If Corvid-19 is racist then somebody's got to pay for it! Who better than an Eton educated, privileged toff sitting in Downing Street?

There is another demographic that doesn't do well in the stats - men. The death rate for men is much higher. But the media aren't demanding any investigation into why more men are dying. No, when it comes to more men dying, that's okay, the left wing media have already worked out the reason. It's because men have toxic masculinity: Men are less likely to wear masks – another sign that toxic masculinity kills

If a higher percentage of black people die then it's the government's fault, if a higher percentage of men die then it's the men's fault. Flawless logic from the left, as usual.

Imagine if it was the other way around and coronavirus killed more women than men ...there'd be an uproar!

 

[Mr D]

Lack of vitamin D.

Lots of people missing the vitamin?
Or just particular groups?

 

[SillyBill]

Imagine if it was the other way around and coronavirus killed more women than men ...there'd be an uproar!

Indeed, I dread to think the media reporting if deaths were concentrated to BAME AND women. They'd totally lose it; the white male patriarchy would somehow be responsible no doubt. Add it to the list of other horrors we're supposedly perpetrating on a daily basis. Meanwhile migrant boats continue to chance their arm in arriving into a country where these evil beasts make up the majority of the population, if our society is so damned, why seek refuge here?

 

[Mr D]

I've been saying for a while this is the calm before the storm. The tsunami hasn't hit yet, only the earthquake. I have a relative who is a courier at Hermes, he says his round is surpassing Xmas levels and the vast majority is non-essential. Clearly you don't get that level of consumption during a depression. And that is where we're headed. This spending is on borrowed time IMO given many of these people won't have jobs or thus far been sheltered from the economic reality.

The part of my business flying at the moment (DIY customers) won't last in my estimation, why? Because demand has simply been brought forward given a surge of people with lots of time on their hands. There won't be any extra of it over time. People won't paint the garage door twice for the fun of it...So even areas we are doing well I consider to be a flash-in-the-pan and reduced income further down the line.

I am looking to diversify our business into a few new areas which should help us offset some of the losses in other bits of the business. I expect to do well in 2022-23 where perhaps the economy is about at the same size as it was Q4 2019 and I have less competitors to be up against. Our opportunity isn't increased business in the short run, its less players in the aftermath....

Luckily we have a government who decided certain businesses could be open.

Nothing about essential purchases. One person's essential is another's non essential.

Not surprising that the courier is experiencing Christmas level of deliveries - reduced staff, increased use of temps, increased level of orders being processed by couriers.

People at home unexpectedly with lots of spare time want something to do. They can't go out and get it, hence delivery at home.

 

[SillyBill]

Luckily we have a government who decided certain businesses could be open.

Nothing about essential purchases. One person's essential is another's non essential.

Not surprising that the courier is experiencing Christmas level of deliveries - reduced staff, increased use of temps, increased level of orders being processed by couriers.

People at home unexpectedly with lots of spare time want something to do. They can't go out and get it, hence delivery at home.

Home repossessions will be coming in a few months. And lots of business closures. Mood music is still: "weather is great, lots of disposable income, lots of time, don't want lockdown to end".

 

[Mr D]

Home repossessions will be coming in a few months. And lots of business closures. Mood music is still: "weather is great, lots of disposable income, lots of time, don't want lockdown to end".

Then its a good idea for businesses to plan for recession.

House repossessions - house clearance business and home removals businesses may do well then? Security services too.
Anyone fancy a change of business?

 

[Interestedobserver]

Luckily we have a government who decided certain businesses could be open.

Nothing about essential purchases. One person's essential is another's non essential.

Not surprising that the courier is experiencing Christmas level of deliveries - reduced staff, increased use of temps, increased level of orders being processed by couriers.

People at home unexpectedly with lots of spare time want something to do. They can't go out and get it, hence delivery at home.

It's not necessarily more people are doing DIY although I'm sure many are

It's basically the fact people can't shop in person now so anyone who does want to purchase is buying online and hence so many deliveries etc

I've got a few friends in businesses that supply online trade and retail. Trade has disappeared but retail is 5 to 10 times busier every day

The main reason their retail has gone up is the fact people have no alternative right now but to buy the products they sell online. Not only that my friends have secure and established supply lines. It's hard for others to get on board and take advantage if not already established as online sellers.

How long will my friends prosper? Will people ever shop in person in big numbers again you have to wonder?

Online is easier, safer and will be proving itself to lots of customers who have never bought that way before.

 

[MBE2017]

Plenty of physical shopping going on, B&Q car park has huge ques, and a local paint wholesaler has never been so busy, most self employed guys have to start working again, several have not had a penny in help.

 

[Mr D]

It's not necessarily more people are doing DIY although I'm sure many are

It's basically the fact people can't shop in person now so anyone who does want to purchase is buying online and hence so many deliveries etc

I've got a few friends in businesses that supply online trade and retail. Trade has disappeared but retail is 5 to 10 times busier every day

The main reason their retail has gone up is the fact people have no alternative right now but to buy the products they sell online. Not only that my friends have secure and established supply lines. It's hard for others to get on board and take advantage if not already established as online sellers.

How long will my friends prosper? Will people ever shop in person in big numbers again you have to wonder?

Online is easier, safer and will be proving itself to lots of customers who have never bought that way before.

While early indication from some sources is that online sales have at least doubled, after the lockdown is eased enough for offline shops to reopen the consensus appears to be that online will still be used considerably more than it was last year.
So if getting 3% sales normally and 6% now, perhaps 4.5% sales after early June.

Problem for couriers now is how to handle next Christmas - increased demand for their services and increased illnesses among staff / isolation required due to quarantine.

 

[MBE2017]

News that Nissan are closing their Spanish factory, to move production to......
Sunderland.

Brexit win.

 

[alan1302]

News that Nissan are closing their Spanish factory, to move production to......
Sunderland.

Brexit win.

Not a Brexit win - just business - the Sunderland factory is very well regraded and efficient.

 

[MBE2017]

I mentioned Brexit win in the sense so many on the forum in the past stated all the car manufacturers would desert the UK if Brexit went ahead. Well it did, and they haven’t, so win in my book.

 

[JEREMY HAWKE]

I am surprised but if you had a choice of workforce ?

 

[RobinBHM]

More than that, we won't need to contribute to the EU budget - there's tens of billions saved there!

the cost to business of non tariff barriers will far outweigh the UKs EU contributions which dont cost much anyway.

50,000 new customs officers is just the start of the costs.

 

[RobinBHM]

What actually is so bad about chlorinated chicken? And having Brexit does not mean we will get chlorinated chicken...nothing in law to say we must!

that is driven by Tories desperate for a US trade deal -mostly because many stand to gain money by doing so. (see all the connections that Tory MPs have to brexit think tanks / lobby groups -which are funded by US business and fossil fuel interests.

For a trade deal to go through, the US will insist on access to the Pharmas and agriculture markets in the UK.

 

[Mr D]

Not a Brexit win - just business - the Sunderland factory is very well regraded and efficient.

Will it still be seen that way when dealing with EU tariffs?

 

[alan1302]

Will it still be seen that way when dealing with EU tariffs?

Yes, EU tariffs won't change the factory being well regarded and efficient.

 

[19ninety]

I wish. Unfortunately, Corvid-19 doesn't choose based on level of stupidity. It's based on age, existing health conditions etc. So the stupid ones may be the ones who survive!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idiocracy it's coming true, Trump could be just the start ...

 

[Mr D]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idiocracy it's coming true, Trump could be just the start ...

Due to his age he is somewhat more at risk. Due to his stupidity he's very much at risk.
Then again, his replacement would be worse! The guy one heartbeat from the job is seen as better only because he doesn't use social media as much.

 

[Stas Lawicki]

Quite a few folk were expecting the recession before CV - me for one. And not because I'm a forecasting genius but because of all the noise and information that has been coming out from all over the place. I've said several times before, the Corp debt moutain was around 15 trillion usd (before cv), society is built on credit cards, loans, hire purchase, pcp, expensive TV packages, mobile phone contracts paid for up front by a loan. We've even seen 95% mortgages! It has been too easy to forget that too much debt isn't sustainable.

Add now the cv into the mix. Companies were failing before it, and are on an artifical income support with the various measures. Clearly many on furlough are oblivious of what is about to come. Far from saving and tightening belts, I am sure for some it's been a holiday bonus - there is a reason amazon has done well. When the music stops, it's not going to be a trickle, but a cliff drop of unemployment. Confidence will evaporate and all the debt companies and people have taken on will need paying back. Of course, this won't be possible and the repos and debt orders will rocket.

People also talk of poor mental health - some as if it's a new phenomena. Poor MH has been prevalent for many years in our workplaces and with lockdown and isolated working we've exacerbated the problem. Locking people up, increasing text and email chatter, reducing social contact and degrading people's purpose - it's going to get worse when bosses believe working from home saves them a fortune on rent and office costs and bring in wfh without any planning or consideration for their workers who, for a whole number of reasons, would struggle to work from home on a permanent basis. Just like the polls that did the rounds in April that asked how BoJo ws doing as a leader, plenty hailed him as the exemplar- Redo that poll now and I am sure many would have changed their minds. Wfh is a necessary process but with millions of us working with spouses, kids, disrupted workflow and projects, there have been many distractions that make a novelty of it. In the event full workloads are returned I can image many struggling to adapt to it.

So in summary - mass unemployment, huge debt, repos, poor MH - we are in for a very tough year or two.

What can we do - diversify, get jobs or trade in sectors unaffected or thriving, save money now, stop spending on worthless or unnecessary rubbish, aim a product or service at solving some of the many problems the recession will cause. Look after each other.

 

[MBE2017]

What can we do - diversify, get jobs or trade in sectors unaffected or thriving, save money now, stop spending on worthless or unnecessary rubbish, aim a product or service at solving some of the many problems the recession will cause. Look after each other.

Started doing this straight away, have cut £1k off my annual bills, saved £3k spending in the last two months by being in lockdown, cut food bills etc. I agree though, tough few years coming our way, but I still think the UK can get out of this quicker than most.

I’m just grateful the huge national debt after 2008 had been brought down partially, many Western economies are going to wish they had done more in the near future. That all said, I see PayPal are now offering 0% interest on purchases over £99, at least for a year. How many idiots will keep spending?

 

[Darren_Ssc]

I see PayPal are now offering 0% interest on purchases over £99, at least for a year.

They get a commission from each sale, they aren't really giving anything away.

 

[Mr D]

Started doing this straight away, have cut £1k off my annual bills, saved £3k spending in the last two months by being in lockdown, cut food bills etc. I agree though, tough few years coming our way, but I still think the UK can get out of this quicker than most.

I’m just grateful the huge national debt after 2008 had been brought down partially, many Western economies are going to wish they had done more in the near future. That all said, I see PayPal are now offering 0% interest on purchases over £99, at least for a year. How many idiots will keep spending?

A lot does depend on how we cope with Covid. Having a few weeks / months off work each year while ill affects how productive any one member of staff is.
Locking down a town or city for even a few days will be a major problem - but if needed its a bit better than locking down the UK.

Trying to claw out of a recession while coping with illness and death won't be easy.

 

[MBE2017]

They get a commission from each sale, they aren't really giving anything away.

Never said they were giving anything away, pointing out despite the times 0% interest being offered, to put yet more people in debt in the long run, making buying items too easy. Luckily I can resist, many cannot, or are desperate enough to take it. Once hooked the interest will follow in the future.

 

[Darren_Ssc]

Never said they were giving anything away, pointing out despite the times 0% interest being offered, to put yet more people in debt. Luckily I can resist, many cannot, or are desperate enough to take it. Once hooked the interest will follow.

Fair enough but these short term, low value 0% deals are quite common now. I hear a lot of young people are falling fowl but hasn't that always been the case with credit cards, store cards, etc- for the past 20 years or so anyway?

Yes, that means bad news for some people but we're all better off than we were 20 years ago. I don't see that trend changing much long term.

 

[Stas Lawicki]

Never said they were giving anything away, pointing out despite the times 0% interest being offered, to put yet more people in debt in the long run, making buying items too easy. Luckily I can resist, many cannot, or are desperate enough to take it. Once hooked the interest will follow in the future.

Too true. Those that cant resist, those that cannot afford not to give it a go and those who don't give a stuff and would be happy to run the gauntlet!

We are hearing on the furlough situation shortly. Taking one tiny anecdotal bit from BBC R2 today and Vanessa Feltz lady (can't say I am in any way a fan) - some expert or other spoke about 'zombie' jobs. Rather than listening to what he meant or taking time to educate herself on the meaning, she jumped done his throat because she didn't like the term. The 'expert' was entirely correct and we have been talking about it for several weeks- furlough is propping up businesses and worker's positions but the further the economy drops, the greater the number of people coming straight off furlough into unemployment. Why is it people cannot see this?!

Many ltd dirs who've had nothing will be watching closely hoping some sort of parity with SEISS. If they don't get it, there will be plenty more loan applications and more hardship in the immediate future with another lot when furlough ends. Yes giving more grants to ltd dirs would also create the cliff edge later, but at least this way those that are just surviving without anything, might well have a chance of getting through.

I feel for all those hardworking folk who've paid their taxes and run their one-man-band ltds, only to get nothing (excluding the tax dodgy, cash-in-hand pirates).

 

[Darren_Ssc]

We are hearing on the furlough situation shortly. Taking one tiny anecdotal bit from BBC R2 today and Vanessa Feltz lady (can't say I am in any way a fan) - some expert or other spoke about 'zombie' jobs. Rather than listening to what he meant or taking time to educate herself on the meaning, she jumped done his throat because she didn't like the term. The 'expert' was entirely correct and we have been talking about it for several weeks- furlough is propping up businesses and worker's positions but the further the economy drops, the greater the number of people coming straight off furlough into unemployment. Why is it people cannot see this?!

Ashamed to say I also listened to this interview and my impression of the chap speaking was that he was advocating propping-up failing businesses for no other reason that to stop people becoming unemployed a couple of months sooner than would otherwise be the case.?

Admittedly, some businesses may well thrive if they can keep going a bit longer but I think they would be in the minority?

And, not every business that has received aid thus far is a deserving case, myself included.

 

[Stas Lawicki]

Ashamed to say I also listened to this interview and my impression of the chap speaking was that he was advocating propping-up failing businesses for no other reason that to stop people becoming unemployed a couple of months sooner than would otherwise be the case.?

Admittedly, some businesses may well thrive if they can keep going a bit longer but I think they would be in the minority?

And, not every business that has received aid thus far is a deserving case, myself included.

You might be right, the part I managed to catch was him saying many won't have anything to come back to. I was too busy muttering about Feltz to listen too intently... dreadful person...

I'm on the other end of it - not eligible for anything except a BBL. Thankfully not needed or wanted but not because I am inundated with high-yielding work, but more because I thought something might happen this year. Certainly not CV, but thought the markets might dive. Thank goodneess I assumed the thrifty position I did.

 

[Darren_Ssc]

You might be right, the part I managed to catch was him saying many won't have anything to come back to. I was too busy muttering about Feltz to listen too intently... dreadful person...

I'm on the other end of it - not eligible for anything except a BBL. Thankfully not needed or wanted but not because I am inundated with high-yielding work, but more because I thought something might happen this year. Certainly not CV, but thought the markets might dive. Thank goodneess I assumed the thrifty position I did.

There was another chap speaking in the same piece about the proposal that employers foot some of the bill going forward. I think he made a valid point about being willing to pay something if those people could at least do some part-time work to justify keeping them on. I expect there may be a lot of people in that position but, again, whether that makes them viable businesses worth supporting I'm not sure?

Regarding Ms Feltz, I agree entirely. And the thing about how to have a BBQ withing the rules was especially silly. Especially as she was contradicted by someone on R4 a bit later saying BBQ's should not be taking place at all.

Have a nice weekend anyhow. I'm off to join the queue outside waitrose!

 

[MBE2017]

Fair enough but these short term, low value 0% deals are quite common now. I hear a lot of young people are falling fowl but hasn't that always been the case with credit cards, store cards, etc- for the past 20 years or so anyway?

Yes, that means bad news for some people but we're all better off than we were 20 years ago. I don't see that trend changing much long term.

Maybe I see things differently. I see the country much more in debt, not necessarily better off. This will cause massive harm to many eventually. I know two people who have committed suicide as a way out of debt, normally for a lot of tosh that is not truly required.

I have spent fifteen years ensuring both my daughters do not take out credit where it is not required. Both have a sim only contract, at £4 month, unlimited calls, txts and 10Gb of data, to help with their credit files, simply because it is much cheaper than PAYG. Student loan for my youngest daughter who has just qualified as a teacher, a good investment IMO.

Apart from that, I try to teach them the value of money, nothing better than having to spend cash, it hurts when you do it, debt numbs it until much later.

Guess I’m getting old, the country would do much better living more within it means.

 

[Mr D]

Maybe I see things differently. I see the country much more in debt, not necessarily better off. This will cause massive harm to many eventually. I know two people who have committed suicide as a way out of debt, normally for a lot of tosh that is not truly required.

I have spent fifteen years ensuring both my daughters do not take out credit where it is not required. Both have a sim only contract, at £4 month, unlimited calls, txts and 10Gb of data, to help with their credit files, simply because it is much cheaper than PAYG. Student loan for my youngest daughter who has just qualified as a teacher, a good investment IMO.

Apart from that, I try to teach them the value of money, nothing better than having to spend cash, it hurts when you do it, debt numbs it until much later.

Guess I’m getting old, the country would do much better living more within it means.

Unfortunately much of the rest of the country has been raised the past 60 years to use credit, to borrow, pay later.
And sometimes circumstances prevent payment later - but even then the penalties are not hard.

People committing suicide over debt? Been happening for longer than you have been alive.

I use credit but not stupid about it. Credit card has a tiny limit and rolled over - but comes in handy when making bigger purchases or sudden unexpected bills.

Business wise some credit can be handy at times - if it's going to lead to profit.

 

[Awinner2]

It will be interesting to see how many furloughed workers will not be in any work as the scheme winds down. Sunak now wants businesses to fund some of the furlough pay. Fine if they can but many with no income stream now or in the foreseeable future will simply get rid of these workers by redundancy or laying off.

 

[Mr D]

It will be interesting to see how many furloughed workers will not be in any work as the scheme winds down. Sunak now wants businesses to fund some of the furlough pay. Fine if they can but many with no income stream now or in the foreseeable future will simply get rid of these workers by redundancy or laying off.

Getting rid of workers either way costs money - and in some instances the business may not have enough, as you say zero income. Sure, a grant from the government helps - but may be a small fraction of what was needed to stay open. And borrowing is not always the solution when debts already exist.

 

[SillyBill]

Yes, that means bad news for some people but we're all better off than we were 20 years ago. I don't see that trend changing much long term.

That is just not true. Go back a little further and the entire trend over the past 40 years until now has been a transition between households of one wage earner (or one wage earner + a pin money job) to two wage earners to maintain the same lifestyle. Cheap electronics from Taiwan or China or Ryanair flights to Turkey for less than a train ticket from Glasgow to Brighton isn't prosperity. Hoodwinked some but the productivity increase vs real wage correlation (or lack thereof over the last 40 years) hasn't fooled all of us.

Perhaps I just mix in strange circles but a good paying job in the 90s/noughties was £40k. Perhaps I knew very wealthy people and my anecdotals don't stack up but they seemed normal enough to me. A good salesmen could pull that in, I knew plenty. Now 20 years later...and it is the same?

Stas hits the nail on the head. The illusion of wealth has all been making people debt slaves in an age where debt is embraced, not feared. Previous generations knew the consequences. Once that falls from experienced memory a new generation is destined to repeat the mistake. And we will. The tide will roll out and all this "better off"ness we will realise was just on the never never.

 

[MBE2017]

Perhaps I just mix in strange circles but a good paying job in the 90s/noughties was £40k. Perhaps I knew very wealthy people and my anecdotals don't stack up but they seemed normal enough to me. A good salesmen could pull that in, I knew plenty. Now 20 years later...and it is the same?

Totally agree, 20 years ago I had approx 55 salespeople, none of whom took home less than £1k per week. The £1k per week was a rule I introduced, if they didn’t earn that amount they were let go. Never had to sack anyone in three years, but as mentioned two incomes now required to just pay for accommodation and food.

I used to take my salesteams on holidays, no cost to themselves or my company, used to take it out of my earnings and call them training weeks.

 

[Stas Lawicki]

If I talk to my parents or grand parent's generation, debt wasn't an option. If you wanted something, you saved. If you didn't have the money, tough! Sure, plenty still went around borrowing but it wasn't the norm to buy a load of non-essential crap.

Cars are the biggest debt enducing product out there. How many people now buy on finance instead of saving - they even roll it on every three years with these pcps. You never own it, you pay through the nose and cover the depreciation. I keep hearing this is the next bubble to go. We can't borrow our way out of this. The cliff edge has been pushed back but soon enough Rishi and his pals will be standing there in their shiny suits with their pockets folded out and a 'eeeeeerrrrrr?!'. We are hearing people are anxious about returning to work, some will be genuine, others taking the pi55 we can't import the workers and with brexit it going to be all the more difficult.

Sorry to be doom and gloom (I'm actually quite a happy person, really!) but it still seems we are piling more and more weight on an already dead donkey.

 

[SillyBill]

Totally agree, 20 years ago I had approx 55 salespeople, none of whom took home less than £1k per week. The £1k per week was a rule I introduced, if they didn’t earn that amount they were let go. Never had to sack anyone in three years, but as mentioned two incomes now required to just pay for accommodation and food.

I used to take my salesteams on holidays, no cost to themselves or my company, used to take it out of my earnings and call them training weeks.

And I fully believe that. My father, before retiring, was a fairly unremarkable insurance salesman for the CO-OP back in the late 90s and he was pulling in 40-50k a year then. I remember this as I was talking to him about wage levels for professionals in the pub...cue his jaw dropping to the floor and him saying something along the lines of "I was earning that 30 years ago". And he was.

And as you say all the other benefits were there too. The way he recalls his career I am quite sure most of that £50k was earned in the pub, that is where a lot of sales meetings took place in any case! This loss of earning power has been so gradual and the two wages creeping year on year from "getting ahead" to "fundamentally needed" that a lot have barely noticed it.

 

[SillyBill]

Cars are the biggest debt enducing product out there. How many people now buy on finance instead of saving - they even roll it on every three years with these pcps. You never own it, you pay through the nose and cover the depreciation. I keep hearing this is the next bubble to go.

Not sure what the actual numbers are here (albeit my eyes tell me everything I need to know) but in the States the numbers are pretty awe inspiring (for the wrong reasons). Auto loans and student loans over there have the potential to be another sub-prime they are spinning that far out of whack. I think the new pick ups and shiny German cars in massive queues for food banks in America even got the attention of our own press as being quite eccentric. Out of work for a few weeks and driving into a food bank with a new car on finance? I mean where do you start...what does that say about how shallow the pool we're dipping in is?

I've always liked nice cars, typically Mercedes but over the last 10 years I've noticed what was once prestige has been reduced to everyday consumer good. As finance means a huge % of people now have new Audis, Mercs, BMWs on the drive and Mondeo man is dead. If something feels off I reckon it is. When I've pulled up at traffic lights and the whole lot is nice new cars around me (not infrequent) my spidey senses kick in that a re-calibration is due.

 

[Interestedobserver]

And I fully believe that. My father, before retiring, was a fairly unremarkable insurance salesman for the CO-OP back in the late 90s and he was pulling in 40-50k a year then. I remember this as I was talking to him about wage levels for professionals in the pub...cue his jaw dropping to the floor and him saying something along the lines of "I was earning that 30 years ago". And he was.

And as you say all the other benefits were there too. The way he recalls his career I am quite sure most of that £50k was earned in the pub, that is where a lot of sales meetings took place in any case! This loss of earning power has been so gradual and the two wages creeping year on year from "getting ahead" to "fundamentally needed" that a lot have barely noticed it.

Very interesting and I think you make good points

Until now it's very much been about keeping up with the Jones's

But I think that's going to change. People will be happy with simpler lives.

Less travelling to work. Less extravagance. More family time. Holidays in the UK more. Appreciating what we have. One car per couple not two.

I've been on walks in my village and seen places I never even knew existed the last few weeks. Because I had no other options. And I've liked what I've seen. And I've enjoyed the time with my family. I've had 3 picnics!! Lol

We were all caught up in a rat race that I think is going to change the way we do thing very significantly myself.