Liz Truss PM - Gone Within a Year?

[Justin Smith]

Politicians are such hypocrites, all of them :

The Times 17 Oct 22 (p8) :

Jonathan Reynolds, the shadow business secretary, told the BBC "I don't know which bits of the budget still apply and I don't know what we will hear next week . What I will say is, any cuts the Conservative Party brings forward are entirely of its own making. Entirely because of its own incompetence [and nothing whatsoever to do with shutting down much of the economy for months on end, which we in the labour party enthusiastically supported].

At the peak about 9 million people were on Furlough, out of a working population of 33 million, that's not far off 30%. To say nothing of the decrease in the productivity of those not furloughed (because of all the suppression measures like "social distancing" and telling people [occasionally "just" encouraging them] to stay at home and not go out and spend money on goods and services).

 

[Karimbo]

Politicians are such hypocrites, all of them :

The Times 17 Oct 22 (p8) :

Jonathan Reynolds, the shadow business secretary, told the BBC "I don't know which bits of the budget still apply and I don't know what we will hear next week . What I will say is, any cuts the Conservative Party brings forward are entirely of its own making. Entirely because of its own incompetence [and nothing whatsoever to do with shutting down much of the economy for months on end, which we in the labour party enthusiastically supported].

At the peak about 9 million people were on Furlough, out of a working population of 33 million, that's not far off 30%. To say nothing of the decrease in the productivity of those not furloughed (because of all the suppression measures like "social distancing" and telling people [occasionally "just" encouraging them] to stay at home and not go out and spend money on goods and services).

I hear the arguement from brexiters that there are other factors at play (energy crisis, ukraine war etc). Brexit is not the cause of our issues. Also hear this arguement from time to time, the money printing from furlough and lockdown causes the inflation.

the FT made a decent video here on brexit: https://www.ft.com/video/91b8a350-5817-4b40-a5ea-c62ec832aa9c

The thing is USA, Europe all had lockdowns and all had some sort of money printing going on to get through the lockdown.

it's not a UK specific issue. Everyone had it.

The challenge is, UKs recovery is the worst out of all the g7 nations. After the 2008 crisis - London (and the UK) bounced back really fast and the financial services were better than ever.

Right now it's doing really poorly. Furloug/money printing, Ukraine war, Energy crisis is a control variable (all other countries going through the same), why is Uk performing poorer relatively to the other g7 nations?

 

[NickGrogan]

What makes you think UK is performing badly v G7?

"For 2021 as a whole, UK GDP growth was 7.5%. This was the highest in the G7. The UK had the largest decline in GDP among the G7 in 2020 (-11.0%) and its relatively strong performance in 2021 was to some degree a recovery from weakness in 2020."

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02784/

UK projections better than Germany and Italy - both negative. Comparable to the rest of the UE.

We're not going as well as US/Canada or Japan - US is printing way more money than us and Japan less affected by Covid.

Which of the G7 are having the political issues we are? Italy just had an election where the right or far right depending on your view won. Germany elected a new chancellor in 2021.

 

[Newchodge]

Oh dear. The BBC has announced that one of Truss' special advisors has been suspended because of unacceptable briefings.

Liz Truss's special adviser suspended and faces investigation

Jason Stein faces a formal investigation by the team responsible for standards across government.

www.bbc.co.uk

The last line of the article says:

"Before joining Downing Street, Jason Stein used to work as a communications adviser to Prince Andrew."

I am not entirely sure why that line has me in stitches.?

 

[Karimbo]

@NickGrogan Maybe watch the FT video in full?

You're quoting 2020 & 2021 changes. Both during lockdown. Where the economy is boosted artificially with money from furloughs and fairly uncontrolled lockdowns which allowed people to work. FT video is talking about up to present time 2022.

2023 projection for economic growth is 0. That's second last place for Economic Growth in Europe just 1 place up from Russia

 

[IanSuth]

@NickGrogan Maybe watch the FT video in full?

You're quoting 2020 & 2021 changes. Both during lockdown. Where the economy is boosted artificially with money from furloughs and fairly uncontrolled lockdowns which allowed people to work. FT video is talking about up to present time 2022.

2023 projection for economic growth is 0. That's second last place for Economic Growth in Europe just 1 place up from Russia

Yes if you want a better comparison taking a longer term look

Like the last 4 year + projected next

That goes from pre covid until next year so should even out different countries different speed and rate of covid measures and recoveries etc and just give a roughly equivalent comparable measure of economic strength

 

[IanSuth]

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02784/

this has a chart of pre pandemic to now GDP in the G7 and states

Compared to the pre-pandemic level, UK GDP in Q2 2022 was 0.2% lower (this figure was recently revised lower). This compares with Eurozone GDP being 1.8% higher than its pre-pandemic level, while US GDP was 3.5% higher.

So lets look again - what is different between
the UK -0.2%

Japan +0.6

Canada +1.7%

the Eurozone +1.8%

US +3.5%

Please note that headline GDP growth figures across countries are not 100% comparable. For example, the UK takes a different approach to others in calculating output in the education and health sectors. This has resulted in the UK’s GDP growth figures being lower in 2020, and higher in 2021 (as this effect unwound), compared with other G7 economies than they otherwise would have been.

 

[The Byre]

Just to put some meat on the bones of @IanSuth 's answer -

why is Uk performing poorer relatively to the other g7 nations?

As you watched that FT feature, you will know that Brexit costs the UK 4% of GDP (OBR figures) and that equates to £470 according to a study done at the LSE. Brexit was grossly mishandled by Johnson and his team. There has not been a single meaningful trade deal done with a major economy and the negotiation team was hopelessly under-qualified for the task at hand. So there we have one reason - there are others!

The UK was harder hit by C19 because of the poorer state of the nation's health and the chaotic state of the health system. The overall cost of C19 deaths came to just £17bn as few of those who died were economically active (my own calculations based on ONS and NHS figures). The cost of treating the sick and inoculating the population came to £77bn, with another £4bn lost by the NHS in other measures - so it is a safe assumption to state that C19 cost the UK about £100bn in deaths and treatment. (Based on ONS and NHS figures.)

I have not been able to get a reliable handle on what the lockdown cost, but I suspect that the true cost will be much higher than £100bn. The UK has a mostly service-based economy and that suffered much more than any manufacturing.

Also, the manufacturing industries in the UK are significantly less productive than elsewhere as a result of under-investment in automation and a tendency to have more bespoke handmade items and short-run high-tech items (e.g. F1 cars, PC workstations made to order). Sickness hits such manufacturing many times harder than an automated car plant or white goods factory.

Skilled labour is leaving the UK, partially because of Brexit and partially because of the worsening economic climate and worsening health care. I am actually seeing Polish people going home to get proper treatment for themselves and their families.

So there are many reasons, though one of them has to be about 18 years of governments mismanaging the economy - and we've been all around the houses on that topic!

 

[IanSuth]

.

Skilled labour is leaving the UK, partially because of Brexit and partially because of the worsening economic climate and worsening health care. I am actually seeing Polish people going home to get proper treatment for themselves and their families.

A friend recently got her fillings and implant done in Poland going with a Polish friend , staying with her family and using her dentist she knew well. entire trip inc travel etc was about 1/3 UK cost and she had a 10 day holiday out of it. Was more hassle to book the journey than getting the appointment when she wanted it

 

[Mash147]

Suella Braverman just resigned.

 

[Newchodge]

Suella Braverman just resigned.

Apparently due to an honest mistake. Does that show a degree of integrity?

 

[Mash147]

This is how they will get her out. The same way they got Boris out. Possibly more resignations to come.

 

[NickGrogan]

@NickGrogan Maybe watch the FT video in full?

You're quoting 2020 & 2021 changes. Both during lockdown. Where the economy is boosted artificially with money from furloughs and fairly uncontrolled lockdowns which allowed people to work. FT video is talking about up to present time 2022.

2023 projection for economic growth is 0. That's second last place for Economic Growth in Europe just 1 place up from Russia

I quoted 2021 and 2022 - those being the only figures that actually exist. I also quoted the 2023 projections.

To be fair, we're all arguing over crumbs. The economy has been going nowhere for a long time, along with most of the rest of the G7

Timelines Explorer - Data Commons

Data Commons aggregates and harmonizes global, open data, giving everyone the power to uncover insights with natural language questions

datacommons.org

All of the European members haven't grown since 2007/8, Canada since 2012 and Japan since 1995. US figures look really suspicious.

 

[UKSBD]

Apparently due to an honest mistake. Does that show a degree of integrity?

The cynics are saying it was a deliberate, honest mistake so she had a reason to resign and stab Truss in the back whilst doing so.

 

[Newchodge]

The cynics are saying it was a deliberate, honest mistake so she had a reason to resign and stab Truss in the back whilst doing so.

Her resignation letter is pure poison. The cynics are probably right.

 

[Fagin2021]

Her resignation letter is pure poison. The cynics are probably right.

Of course they are. An obvious ploy to quit the sinking ship and burnish her credentials with the Tory right and the hang 'em/flog 'em brigade of the membership.

 

[thetiger2015]

Chief Whip has just resigned too?

 

[thetiger2015]

Chief Whip has just resigned too?

The government could collapse tonight, couldn't it?

Deputy has apparently quit as well, in protest.

 

[WaveJumper]

Chief Whip has just resigned too?

Probably due to the bullying allegations flying around regarding the Fracking vote they had tonight

 

[WaveJumper]

Latest reports indicate the whip's have not gone ........ so maybe another U turn ?but a lot of crap seems to be going on behind the scenes tonight.

Update:
"Lord David Frost, Boris Johnson's former Brexit negotiator and Tory peer, has called on Prime Minister Liz Truss to resign".

 

[kulture]

It’s not often I agree with an MP let alone a conservative one, but having listened to Charles Walker in his interview with the BBC I had to agree with everything he said.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-63309400?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=6350476e34a915418162d99e%26It%27s%20a%20shambles%20and%20a%20disgrace%2C%20says%20senior%20Tory%20MP%262022-10-19T19%3A11%3A01.174Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:1949626c-8f8d-407f-90d5-fe8d159ef933&pinned_post_asset_id=6350476e34a915418162d99e&pinned_post_type=share

 

[Newchodge]

It’s not often I agree with an MP let alone a conservative one, but having listened to Charles Walker in his interview with the BBC I had to agree with everything he said.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-63309400?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=6350476e34a915418162d99e%26It%27s%20a%20shambles%20and%20a%20disgrace%2C%20says%20senior%20Tory%20MP%262022-10-19T19%3A11%3A01.174Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:1949626c-8f8d-407f-90d5-fe8d159ef933&pinned_post_asset_id=6350476e34a915418162d99e&pinned_post_type=share

Except, his anger was, initially, about the damage that had been inflicted on the Conservative party. No concern about the damage inflicted on people.

 

[simon field]

It’s not often I agree with an MP let alone a conservative one, but having listened to Charles Walker in his interview with the BBC I had to agree with everything he said.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-63309400?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=6350476e34a915418162d99e%26It%27s%20a%20shambles%20and%20a%20disgrace%2C%20says%20senior%20Tory%20MP%262022-10-19T19%3A11%3A01.174Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:1949626c-8f8d-407f-90d5-fe8d159ef933&pinned_post_asset_id=6350476e34a915418162d99e&pinned_post_type=share

Oh please! He sounds like a Facebook Karen!

Me, me, me. Look at me, aren’t I full of faux-outrage, and I’m so much better than the people I’m describing.

Leave it out! ?

 

[thetiger2015]

Except, his anger was, initially, about the damage that had been inflicted on the Conservative party. No concern about the damage inflicted on people.

Which is why the charade will continue, because they're happy to camp out in this mess of a government in order to save their own bacon. Maybe each Conservative MP will have a go at being PM for a couple of days. They may as well. No actual government business is being done now, it hasn't for months, so they may as well prance around the halls and drink wine all day. Nobody can force an election at this point.

 

[The Byre]

Expect some news around one o'clock - i.e. now! Brady has summoned Truss to speak with him.

 

[MOIC]

Looks like today is the day news of the doughnut's demise will be announced.

Why did it take so long?

 

[MOIC]

Gone!

 

[The Byre]

It looks like the Star's lettuce wins the bet!

 

[Paul Kelly ICHYB]

Wow - do we need a General Election now!

This shambles of a party/government has to go!

 

[Newchodge]

New leadership election within the week! I wonder how long they will last?

 

[MBE2017]

Boris back as PM?

 

[Newchodge]

Boris back as PM?

Dear god, no. I don't think there is the slightest chance of that - he is still under investigation by the standards committee.

 

[Paul Kelly ICHYB]

New leadership election within the week!

So, before it took a few months, now they can do it in a week!

 

[Bob Morgan]

Dear god, no. I don't think there is the slightest chance of that - he is still under investigation by the standards committee.

Take a look at the Daily Fail!

 

[MOIC]

Those that voted for the doughnut to be PM should resign en masse.

Krispy Bl@@dy Kremes!

 

[Newchodge]

Take a look at the Daily Fail!

It is to be a decision by the Conservative MP's. Even they are not that stupid ...... oh.

 

[The Byre]

So now we get PM number three for this year - not because of some fundamental political crisis, not because the party in power cannot muster a majority in the House, but because this party is so intellectually bankrupt that it cannot offer the nation a viable leader.

The names so far being suggested by MPs are either inexperienced and unknown or of proven inability.

Add to that, the democratic legitimacy of any new PM will be zero.

 

[Clodbuster]

The politicians selected her because she offered low tax economy and as soon as she tried to implement it THEY shoot her down.
Bring back Boris. my great concern is that we will end up with a Labour Government.

 

[Newchodge]

Bloody hell, listening to Brady just now it WILL go to the members if there is more than 1 candidate. They are even more mad than I thought.

 

[UKSBD]

Bloody hell, listening to Brady just now it WILL go to the members if there is more than 1 candidate. They are even more mad than I thought.

"If there is more than 1 candidate"
It will probably be agreed that when they get to 2 remaining, one will then pull out.