Liz Truss PM - Gone Within a Year?
- Thread starter MOIC
- Start date
There'll probably be a general election next year, and then Labour will be in power. With everyone being career politicians now there isn't one side I'd choose over the other. Ironically according to a few website survey's I'm more aligned to Lib Dem so have no chance.
As for her fixes for the economy, yeah god save us all.
As for her fixes for the economy, yeah god save us all.
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General election most likely next October, as for a woman PM, she only just got in and we have a weak pound, rising interest rates, high inflation, and she’s not had her evening meal yet.
In all seriousness I cannot think of another PM inheriting such a poor looking economy, the UK has started to be frowned upon for inward investment now as well, which will feed into yet higher costs.
She has a huge task to tackle, with very few tools at her disposal to help her. I’m just resigned to the country facing several tough years until things work themselves out.
We need to get some decent plans in place and then follow the plan, atm the Gov is like a headless chicken.
In all seriousness I cannot think of another PM inheriting such a poor looking economy, the UK has started to be frowned upon for inward investment now as well, which will feed into yet higher costs.
She has a huge task to tackle, with very few tools at her disposal to help her. I’m just resigned to the country facing several tough years until things work themselves out.
We need to get some decent plans in place and then follow the plan, atm the Gov is like a headless chicken.
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Yep indeed. So much other stuff would have been ideal in hindsight, but I agree that the reality is a shit storm over the next couple or three years. I doubt Labour will want a general election until there is some form of light on the horizon, but nonetheless as @The Byre alluded to elsewhere the fiscal situation doesn't really have a fix for where we are now beyond riding it out.
That is the concern I have about a GE, is that no time for any plans to make any progress because a change in Government will rip up anything in place and start again. It's just what they do.
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T
The Byre
Thank you for the kind mention! I and many, many others were sounding the alarm back in 2006 onwards, though not here. What I didn't know was that governments everywhere were going to make their central banks create money in unbelievably irresponsible amounts. Print, borrow and spend!
When C19 hit, I predicted stagflation over two years ago. All this talk about it being a result of the Ukrainian war is so much hogwash. Kopernikus published his Quantity of Money in 1517 and two years later he published the paper stating that bad money drives out good money. So it's hardly as if any of this is new!
When you see a property that was sold for £140k in 2000, sell six years later for £850k, even the dimmest of the very dim must realise that something is going badly wrong! I was part of a consortium that bought a speculative property in 1990 for the equivalent of €40k and we sold it 28 years later for €1m then you know that you have runaway asset-price inflation - and retail price inflation soon follows, thanks to the so-called wealth effect. When the madness bleeds over into share prices and indexes everywhere went from a PE ratio of 10:1 to 40:1 20 years later (now 30:1) then a child could tell you that the markets have just lost their heads and rank hysteria has taken over.
Throughout the West, we are following the Weimar Republik playbook to the letter - it's what followed that should worry us!
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Only my opinion, but I think the Conservatives will be happy to be voted out of power. Labours big problem is how not to get elected, because none of them want the poisoned chalice being offered at the next election. They will pretend they do of course, but none of them are even trying.
The last time this country required decent strong leadership more than today was WW2, and sadly we are totally lacking in any acceptable candidates.
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I really don’t see a pathway* to a GE in 2023, or before. Things are tough now, and only going to get tougher over the next 12 months so calling a GE early (which is only in the gift of the PM/Conservative Party) is highly unlikely as they (the Conservative Party) will certainly lose seats, and probably lose power. I think they will hope that things improve between now and late ‘24 and then spin the narrative of how they guided the country through the most difficult of times etc.
*the only pathway I can see is that Truss drops a massive package of support, buys some goodwill and takes a gamble. I think this could have worked 5 weeks ago, but the lack of action from the gov (or gov to be) has harmed the Conservative brand and it will hurt them at the polling booth.
*the only pathway I can see is that Truss drops a massive package of support, buys some goodwill and takes a gamble. I think this could have worked 5 weeks ago, but the lack of action from the gov (or gov to be) has harmed the Conservative brand and it will hurt them at the polling booth.
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Agree with that. The recession/depression is coming fast and things are going to get bad. Whoever is in power over the next X years going to end up holding a very poisoned chalice.
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Whoever won would have been unlikely to still hold the position after a year.
Of far more concern than PMQT is when she is sat opposite considerably more capable peers / allies / adverseries on a global level.
I bet key world leaders will be keen to meet with her asap to see what she will accede before she is replaced with someone who is unlikely to be even less capable than her.
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I tend to agree with this strategy she will drop a massive package of support from price caps on energy, tax cuts and a load of waffle on NHS all the usual touchy feely stuff then thinking they have public support go for an early election before Christmas. Completely underestimating the publics wrath with the Conservatives and we will end up with a hung Parliament.
I can't believe the old guard in the party are happy, however they maybe see Truss as an easy person to manipulate. Personally if she is still in power by the New Year I will be surprised.
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Au contraire mon ami - you forget that Madame Truss, her cup overfloweth with people to blame for the forthcoming mess. Let me count the ways. There's...
The Global Economy
The EU
The war in Ukraine
China
Immigrants
The Bank of England
Her own MPs
The EU (again)
The Americans (Northern Ireland protocol)
and on, and on, and on.
No-one wants her job right now so she's safe 'til the next election.
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A story published in the Evening Standard suggests they'll have enough support - 54 letters - by the end of the year.
I have a contact who is very close to today's events, or should I say yesterday as it's gone midnight
By close I mean knowing the list of new ministers 24 hours before the rest of the world. I'm told there is a great deal of unease amongst many influential Conservatives and Truss's chance of survival are very, very slim.The most likely candidate to take over if and when Truss is ousted?
Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson
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Dear Dear, what a absolute load of rubbish you sprout, maybe your a gardener in a sewerage factoryA story published in the Evening Standard suggests they'll have enough support - 54 letters - by the end of the year.
I have a contact who is very close to today's events, or should I say yesterday as it's gone midnight
The most likely candidate to take over if and when Truss is ousted?
Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson
The future for the Conservative party to remain in power is to make drastic change buy all working together, and they know it
Besides that she is a strong character and has lots of experience beating the odds
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Get out of bed the wrong side this morning Mr Ashdown?
You don't have to believe that I know somebody close to the action, nor that they are any wiser than you, I, the media or Joe Public. That doesn't mean they have a crystal ball but does enhance their opinion in my view. Why? Because they are in a position to gauge the current mood.
I'm sure I heard that in the final stages 50% of the Conservative party didn't vote and that Liz Truss got what, 57%, of the remainder? Your confidence doesn't appear to be shared.
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- Original Poster
- #24
The Tory party can't work together, that's the point.
BJ still has a sizeable support and I wouldn't rule out a comeback, especially if there are no credible contenders with experience of handling the pressures of the job.
Whoever is in the job in the next couple of years is doomed to failure, as they would have been during the last 2 years.
BJ still has a sizeable support and I wouldn't rule out a comeback, especially if there are no credible contenders with experience of handling the pressures of the job.
Whoever is in the job in the next couple of years is doomed to failure, as they would have been during the last 2 years.
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I thought it was one of her better ones -
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She's been in a lot of the major positions and knows her way around. She did far better than I expected Wednesday, hopefully a sign of things to come. I can't think of anyone within Labour who could give her a hard time. Media interviewers these days are just looking for pathetic gotcha's that serve only themselves, best ignored
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T
The Byre
Neither Starmer nor Truss are competent at anything to do with performing in public. But that is not the point of the exercise!
But she got the first rule of governing right - never waste a crisis. She launched a “bazooka” of Government spending to deal with the energy crisis. But the billions of pounds of public money she is using to hose-down energy bills would make Gordon Brown dizzy!
The scale of the public money used to ensure lower energy bills is hard to comprehend. It is nothing less than a reset of UK energy policy, which Truss said had been failed by “decades of short-term thinking” (note the plural, to avoid admitting it was a Tory mistake - which of course it was!)
The idea now is that the UK will become a net energy exporter by 2040, while the net zero emissions target by 2050 is now under review - sounds ominous!
Truss said: “This is the moment to be bold. We are facing a global energy crisis and there are no ‘cost-free’ options. There will be a cost to this intervention.”
That is an understatement, with some forecasts suggesting it will cost the UK £200billion.
The spending appears to lack a ceiling and our interconnectors to the Continent mean we are paying the price for Germany's almost total reliance on Russian gas. How long will it be before some Tory MPs on the Right starts to call for the interconnectors to be switched off?
If nothing else, Truss’s spending has bought her a political honeymoon of sorts, with tens of billions of pounds piled on our national debt. And that is highly inflationary in the long run. Just the interest payments on the national debt are now costing the exchequer half as much as the entire NHS budget - and that is going to rise as it is linked to RPI.
Now add to all that the tax cuts to be announced by Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng within a fortnight. The Treasury’s eyes will be on the financial markets, as the growing weakness of the pound against the dollar and the Euro is adding to inflationary pressures.
But the markets want to see Truss cutting public spending, alongside today’s energy bailout. That is where it gets difficult. As Truss’s former rival Rishi Sunak found when he tackled the Covid crisis in early 2020: spending public money is easy; turning off the taps is something else entirely.
Summed up - her present basket of measures is extremely inflationary. More government spending paid for with even more borrowing. A child of two could work out that is one hell of a turkey and it ain't gonna fly far!
The upshot is that this government is going to enter the next general election in the teeth of a full-blown stagflationary depression.
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Rees Mogg has no clue about business but he does know how to dodge taxes. The man shouldn't be allowed in government or any responsible job. As for Liz Truss she has a big problem but to give money away to companies is just so wrong. She will make sure our inflation rises and like all business people we all know what overtrading is. More debt than GDP is suicidal and as most businesses know you will go bust with thinking we will recover when we cant pay our debts.
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The PM does not have advance warning of the questions. Her own departments brief her in anticipation of likely subjects, therefore she effectively ad lib's
Source: https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/business/questions/
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