If numbers don’t go up.
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@Newchodge looks like a decline to me. Switch back to a graph and you can see the seven day rolling average slopes downward pretty consistently.
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@Newchodge what they mean by "total" is seven day rolling average of tests by specimen date, rather than those reported on a later day.
That is why the line stops a few days short, because the last few days numbers have a significant number of unreported tests.
That is why the line stops a few days short, because the last few days numbers have a significant number of unreported tests.
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I know they were using a 7 day rolling average, but that wording does not appear anywhere, that I can see, on the current document. It states 'rolling averge of total'. Which is why I wonder if they have changed the basis.
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@Newchodge Their explanations are unclear and the headline number is misleading.
By "total" they are trying to clarify that is the rolling average of "newly reported" and "previously reported".
By "total" they are trying to clarify that is the rolling average of "newly reported" and "previously reported".
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i have no particular criticisms other than what is widely known but i am struggling to see the point of spending X billion on trying to re-start the economy in the middle of a worldwide pandemic - its like the government think it's over. It is not over. If everyone was to go back to normal then it would start to spread like wildfire again. I appreciate we have to do something but come winter all this money could just have been thrown down the toilet if we are forced to lockdown again - and you may think that's impossible but let's see how much of a difference cold weather makes to this thing. I bet its more than any of us are expecting.
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Interestedobserver
Cold weather will simply ensure all the socialising people do happens indoors. You are almost 20 times more likely to catch the virus indoors than outdoors.
It's a no brainer that the winter is a bigger problem than the summer in terms of likely infections
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the point is though - if we cannot control this in the winter then all these measures and the money being spent now is just a waste and many many more billions will be needed. you think people are going to continue going to restaurants when the weather turns and people start getting flus and colds on top of covid-19 there's no just logical chance.
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Doesn't explain why the southern states of USA are having such a huge resurgence in summer... and with an outdoor lifestyle...
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Interestedobserver
They opened their indoor stuff up before we did. Gyms, bars, restaurants etc
And now are having to close them all down again
The Major of Miami also said this weekend hat when lockdown was eased everybody got complacent and assumed they were safe and didn't need to social distance any more
We will head the exact same way as US. I just assume we will go back into lockdown at an earlier stage than they did as we can't possibly want a second wave worse than the first which is what they've got now
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Interestedobserver
People will stop going to bars and restaurants as soon as the media start reporting on the number of cases as a result of one person infecting others in those bars or restaurants
We will get those stories in due course as the track and trace kicks in and the results are reported in the media
You wait til the stories of one customer infecting 12 others in a pub or restaurant etc start hitting the media
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The number of people being infected doesn't matter. If everyone in the pub is young and not going home to a vulnerable person and only socializes with other young people it doesn't matter if they get infected.
Those at risk ain't going down the pub. Most members of our car club are old and wrinkly. We used to eat out as a group at least twice a month. But not any more. This new pattern of behavior is prevalent throughout the UK for those at risk. They are staying at home. Which is why coach holidays and cruises have gone belly up.
Number of infections don't matter. They never have. It's the numbers being admitted to hospital that matter.
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It doesn't matter. If they get stay home with their cough and get better in a couple of weeks it's all good. That's what has happened to most of those infected. I didn't even have any symptoms.
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D
Deleted member 59730
The media do not seem to be much interested in printing all the news. Why is there so little interest in the real damage this is causing. A photograph of punters sitting outside a pub can be understood. A scan of someone's damaged lungs or brain is less easy to explain.
It presumably didn't matter to the 3 out of 4 victims known to me. One has serious lung damage, her boyfriend will likely need a liver transplant while a third is expecting heart surgery.
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I know people like that as well. But I also know a lot of people who have been OK. If you want to stay safe, stay indoors and never meet anyone again.
You can always find stories to highlight the dangers of Covid 19. What you don't read about are all the people who got over it with no long term issues. There are far more of these than those with complications.
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It is well known throughout the world that for the vast majority of people, this is a mild illness.
Of the small minority who develop a more severe form of the illness, a small minority of those require hospitalisation.
Larger viral loads can result in a more severe illness, and for those who are elderly or already ill, it can be worse. Those people should be even more careful than the rest of us.
It is not human nature to keep apart, we are social animals, and that’s why you see pictures of people going about their business as usual.
It is possible to take sensible precautions without being a paranoid wreck, which is what I personally am doing.
Of the small minority who develop a more severe form of the illness, a small minority of those require hospitalisation.
Larger viral loads can result in a more severe illness, and for those who are elderly or already ill, it can be worse. Those people should be even more careful than the rest of us.
It is not human nature to keep apart, we are social animals, and that’s why you see pictures of people going about their business as usual.
It is possible to take sensible precautions without being a paranoid wreck, which is what I personally am doing.
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Interestedobserver
I'm talking about the fact the news story will just re-inforce to people not to risk pubs or restaurants etc
Regardless of the ages involved or how many go to hospital
Any chance of restaurants recovering will disappear as older clients are a big part of the customer mix.
Family meals with older people will take place at home rather than in pubs and restaurants
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Interestedobserver
Your comment is the exact reason second waves come
People stop worrying, get complacent, stop following initial guidelines
And then lockdowns come back
You don't like lockdowns full stop and wish we never had them to start with. That's fair enough.
By saying stop worrying and there's little chance of getting it you will end up bringing back what you don't want
That's where the complacency starts. That's when people don't take care and that's when we get second lockdown
The people who never wanted lockdowns to start with will be the ones who help bring about the second lockdowns as they preach there is nothing to worry about
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- Original Poster
- #428
Can you please give us a cut off date that you will give up on your 2nd wave. Two weeks? September 4th? Mid November? Xmas surely? Ok new year? Maybe next spring? This time next year?
Not talking small infection spikes btw.
And don’t be like the other posters who have been gutted by the numbers tumbling and trying to say it’s because of the social distancing etc as that simply is laughable.
So what’s the date we can work with?
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Wrong on so many counts I’m afraid.
I’m all for protecting the vulnerable, but for everybody else (the vast majority) the infection needs to spread in order to build some level of immunity.
One can be not worried and yet still be sensible, or do you dispute that as well?
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there is no evidence that having had the virus leads to any long term immunity thats the problem... most studies have shown that any benefits slowly fade meaning like the flu you could simply keep catching it year on year. I'm very much in the this will spread like wildfire in winter campaign and there's alot of evidence to back this up... your opinions are what hold back entire countries from moving out of pandemics like this.
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Methinks you’ve been looking at too much social media and bbc news! It’s not good for you, give it up
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He is right though. All the evidence suggests there is no long term immunity.Methinks you’ve been looking at too much social media and bbc news! It’s not good for you, give it up
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if Simon was running the country half of it would be dead. that's the only thing thats a certainty here... (nothing against Simon) but you cant just let life go back to normal in the middle of the first wave of a pandemic especially when scientists believe the real number of infections currently in the UK in circulation (i.e. diagnosed and undiagnosed) to be around 40,000.
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Deleted member 59730
So you cannot point tp any evidence. We shouldn't believe the Italian doctors who predict a bigger bill for transplants in a few years than treating the Covid cases? We should ignore the fact that most patients leave hospital in wheelchairs to start months of rehab?
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If all goes well there won’t be a second spike. The danger has passed because of the controls in place.
There may well be an increase in reported infections but that’s not the same as a spike.
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The thing is, we’ve all become amateur epidemiologists, but without the knowledge or skills to really understand what will happen.
I watched a credible scientist predict, using his model, that there would be a second spike in early January, but a far more “muted” spike than before, with circa 7k deaths.
I’m not saying he’s right - perhaps he is, perhaps he isn’t - but he’s worth a watch, you can see the interview on iPlayer: Newsnight 3 July, the interview starts at about 12 mins in. Probably worth 5 mins of your time to watch.
I watched a credible scientist predict, using his model, that there would be a second spike in early January, but a far more “muted” spike than before, with circa 7k deaths.
I’m not saying he’s right - perhaps he is, perhaps he isn’t - but he’s worth a watch, you can see the interview on iPlayer: Newsnight 3 July, the interview starts at about 12 mins in. Probably worth 5 mins of your time to watch.
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Deleted member 59730
But "most" people is not nearly all people.
Obesity rates among adults in the UK have almost quadrupled in the last 25 years, and now around 1 in 4 fall into this category. What's more, over 60% of adults are classed as overweight or obese, leaving only 40% of women and 33% of UK men.
People aged 65 and over are a large and rapidly growing group – there are currently more than 11.9 million people aged 65 and over in the UK, with 3.2 million aged 80 and over and 1.6 million aged 85 and over. these people are aged 80 and over. 16% of people aged 65 and over live in relative poverty.
About 15 million people in England have a long-term condition (1). Long-term conditions or chronic diseases are conditions for which there is currently no cure, and which are managed with drugs and other treatment, for example: diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, arthritis and hypertension.
Despite being overweight, diabetic and elderly millions of people lead very useful lives. Deciding we can just thin them out is callous.
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