If numbers don’t go up.

[Forgot password]

As the title says do you reckon if infection numbers don’t go up and continue to plummet as they are now the cards will just tumble and things could pretty much get back to normal fairly quickly?

Do you think people will demand this if this is the case and social distancing will fade away and the hospitality sector and events industry as examples will bounce back fairly quickly and this whole lockdown will be looked upon as a massive over reaction?

Let’s hope so.

 

[Newchodge]

As the title says do you reckon if infection numbers don’t go up and continue to plummet as they are now the cards will just tumble and things could pretty much get back to normal fairly quickly?

Do you think people will demand this if this is the case and social distancing will fade away and the hospitality sector and events industry as examples will bounce back fairly quickly and this whole lockdown will be looked upon as a massive over reaction?

Let’s hope so.

Your first sentence is a big IF.

I don't think hospitality and leisure will be open this side of August, even if then.

 

[fisicx]

Infection rates will only fall if social distancing continues. As soon as you let people mingle again infection rates goes back up.

We are unlikely to ever go back to how it was. There will be a new normal.

 

[alan1302]

As the title says do you reckon if infection numbers don’t go up and continue to plummet as they are now the cards will just tumble and things could pretty much get back to normal fairly quickly?

Do you think people will demand this if this is the case and social distancing will fade away and the hospitality sector and events industry as examples will bounce back fairly quickly and this whole lockdown will be looked upon as a massive over reaction?

Let’s hope so.

If the infection rate keeps going down. Which is due to the lockdown. Will people think the lockdown was an over reaction??

 

[billybob99]

There will be a new normal.

Hope so. Can't stand peopleing.

 

[fisicx]

If the infection rate keeps going down. Which is due to the lockdown. Will people think the lockdown was an over reaction??

Of course they will. They will question if it was ever necessary.

 

[MOIC]

Let’s hope so.

You live in hope!

What happens to the second wave, especially with the flu season arriving before next winter?

May make the past 2 months seem like a tea party.

I hear fishing is back in people's daily lives.

 

[Forgot password]

Ron the Don - how’s tricks?

Unless we have just had the 2nd wave as the first wave would surely have been in December/January as the lying Chinese must have been spreading it and travelling with it long before they had to report it.

Maybe we have more immunity than we think and we are over the worst.

I hear Chinese foot jobs are back in people’s lives over there

 

[MOIC]

Ron the Don - how’s tricks?

A bundle of fun!

Unless we have just had the 2nd wave as the first wave would surely have been in December/January as the lying Chinese must have been spreading it and travelling with it long before they had to report it.

The lying Chinese are just that and selfish to boot. This will open people's eyes, if they need opening!

Maybe we have more immunity than we think and we are over the worst.

Dreamland . . . .

I hear Chinese foot jobs are back in people’s lives over there

Getting worse . . . . . .

 

[Interestedobserver]

https://twitter.com/TomPressPhotog/status/1262026698616438785?s=20

Matlock Bath (Derbyshire) today

 

[Interestedobserver]

As the title says do you reckon if infection numbers don’t go up and continue to plummet as they are now the cards will just tumble and things could pretty much get back to normal fairly quickly?

Do you think people will demand this if this is the case and social distancing will fade away and the hospitality sector and events industry as examples will bounce back fairly quickly and this whole lockdown will be looked upon as a massive over reaction?

Let’s hope so.

What have you seen or read anywhere that suggests numbers will continue to plummet when social distancing is relaxed?

If only it was going to be that easy

 

[Bluejen84]

People are already getting more relaxed. I can see it from customers in our shop and the park we go past every day.

There is still a huge chunk treating it strictly. I'm still leaving orders outside customers cars etc

Less masked people coming in now

 

[Forgot password]

What have you seen or read anywhere that suggests numbers will continue to plummet when social distancing is relaxed?

If only it was going to be that easy

Seen 1000’s of people not adhering to social distancing rules and regs and as yet numbers not going up - tubes/buses/parks - that’s my whole point. I know it’s only been a week so let’s give it another two but if people are just doing what they want and breaking all rules and the infection rate keeps going down .... then it might be that easy.

 

[Interestedobserver]

Seen 1000’s of people not adhering to social distancing rules and regs and as yet numbers not going up - tubes/buses/parks - that’s my whole point. I know it’s only been a week so let’s give it another two but if people are just doing what they want and breaking all rules and the infection rate keeps going down .... then it might be that easy.

People don't even know they've got it for the first few days

And what you've seen so far is nothing like hospitality and events starting again?

All it is - is more relaxed social distancing?

You honestly think the entire world economy would have been put on hold and the lockdown measures not introduced if we hadn't needed to

So far we are seeing people relax social distancing outdoors. Meeting indoors is a whole different level of risk

We are going to really struggle in the winter

 

[Interestedobserver]

Seen 1000’s of people not adhering to social distancing rules and regs and as yet numbers not going up - tubes/buses/parks - that’s my whole point. I know it’s only been a week so let’s give it another two but if people are just doing what they want and breaking all rules and the infection rate keeps going down .... then it might be that easy.

Ok let's discuss this again in a couple of weeks time

 

[Forgot password]

Your jumping to all sort of conclusions and assumptions about my views, please re read my posts and you will see I just asked what people’s thoughts would be on if the infection rate went down quicker than we thought and with people mingling would we see a faster return to normal including the two industries I mentioned.

Nothing more nothing less.. but feel free to make up whatever suits you about me, no problem for me.

 

[Interestedobserver]

Your jumping to all sort of conclusions and assumptions about my views, please re read my posts and you will see I just asked what people’s thoughts would be on if the infection rate went down quicker than we thought and with people mingling would we see a faster return to normal including the two industries I mentioned.

Nothing more nothing less.. but feel free to make up whatever suits you about me, no problem for me.

I've not made anything up about you?

Ive taken time to reply to your thread. If you don't like my answers fair enough.

No need to get defensive

 

[SteveHa]

From someone in a high risk category, there are some questions that you need to consider:

1. Has an effective treatment been found?
A. No

2. Has a vaccine been developed?
A. No

3. Is the rate of infection dropping because people are not meeting each other?
A. Probably

4. Has Covid-19 been isolated out of existence?
A. No

5. So what has changed that warrants re-populating its favourite breeding ground?
A. Nothing.

 

[Maxwell83]

Seen 1000’s of people not adhering to social distancing rules and regs and as yet numbers not going up - tubes/buses/parks - that’s my whole point. I know it’s only been a week so let’s give it another two but if people are just doing what they want and breaking all rules and the infection rate keeps going down .... then it might be that easy.

1000's of people not socially distancing is different to 66M people. Do you think that falling numbers are because some people AREN'T socially distancing, or because some people ARE?

When you implement something, and you get the result you expected from that thing, it seems illogical to say "Oh look, I got what I wanted, so doing that thing which I thought would get me what I wanted was actually a waste of time".

That is like dieting, exercising daily and then when you lose weight saying "all that diet and exercise was a waste of time. I lost the weight".

 

[Alison Moore]

The virus will die out eventually , however it's going to take time until either everyone has built up immunity to it (assuming that we can build up immunity to this particular strain) or there is a vaccine for it. I can't see the hospitality trade being allowed to re-open fully in August. Perhaps hotels limiting how many people they're allowed to have stay at any one time, but then you've got the issue of can hotels only be half full and pay all their overheads? Restaurants are difficult as its not as if you can wear a mask when eating. Personally I can see some form of 'lockdown' being in place until at least Autumn and longer for anyone in the vulnerable categories.

 

[fisicx]

The virus will die out eventually.

No it won't. It's a coronavirus - they last forever.

 

[Interestedobserver]

The virus will die out eventually , however it's going to take time until either everyone has built up immunity to it (assuming that we can build up immunity to this particular strain) or there is a vaccine for it. I can't see the hospitality trade being allowed to re-open fully in August. Perhaps hotels limiting how many people they're allowed to have stay at any one time, but then you've got the issue of can hotels only be half full and pay all their overheads? Restaurants are difficult as its not as if you can wear a mask when eating. Personally I can see some form of 'lockdown' being in place until at least Autumn and longer for anyone in the vulnerable categories.

Hotels can already open. My friend has one operating at 40 per cent capacity in Lincolnshire. Being used by essential workers in the area. Room service basic meals or very spread out basic meals at night using all of the rooms he normally uses for conferences.

Hotels normally needs restaurants and bars operating to make enough money to be viable long term.

More than anything most of them need weddings and events and that's where they become viable.

The wedding and event industry has been decimated and is probably a long way from ever being normal again.

Thats going to take many hotels with it

Also the best hotels in UK have great restaurants and indoor pools and indoor spas. Places you won't be able to take advantage of even if you were allowed to stat in the hotel.

My friend is due to stay at Center Parcs next month and has been asked if they are willing to take the holiday without access to the dome and lots more facilities.

May as well stay at home and go for walks in your own countryside nearby rather than stay in a Lodge and not be able to use the normal holiday facilities

 

[gpietersz]

No it won't. It's a coronavirus - they last forever.

I have not heard of many cases of SARS recently.

We are missing lots of critical information: for example, we do not have an accurate estimate of how many people have had it. One recent estimate puts it at around 30%, in which case we are well on the way to herd immunity.

On the other hand, other studies have put it much lower.

 

[fisicx]

Covid-19 is SARS

Officially SARS-CoV-2

SARS is still around, but it's kept well under control. The problem with Covid-19 is its much more infectious.

 

[gpietersz]

SARS is still around, but it's kept well under control

"Since 2004, there have not been any known cases of SARS reported anywhere in the world."

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/sars/

 

[Karimbo]

2 months ago we thought the sky was falling, and friends and family forwarding coronavirus cases of people suffocating to death. Look at where we are now.

It was before CJRS was announced and I genuinely didn't know how I was going to make it through the next few months. I am one of the lucky ones that elected to pay myself far more than the recommended levels. of £780 (or whatever it was) so the CJRS helped out massively.

2 months from now, it could be a world of a difference from now.

I am optimistic that we're in for good times, and people will be out spending money to catch up on everything they've missed out on. Albeit everyone will be a bit germophobe-y.

With an overwhelming good response from the oxford covid vaccine trial (so much so they have ordered the manufature of 30M doses in anticipation of good 3rd phase trials).

More understanding of the virus (covid doesn't kill people, it's the bodies immune response to it, when it gets into the lungs). We'd be much better able to treat it. I heard on the radio (LBC) from an expert, that they are trying to work out what sort of conditions causes some people immune systems to overreact. Bood chemicials, genetics and other factors that are at play.

Whenever people say it will be 18+ months before things get back to normal. I have to remind them where were we 2 months ago, look how far we've come.

 

[Interestedobserver]

2 months ago we thought the sky was falling, and friends and family forwarding coronavirus cases of people suffocating to death. Look at where we are now.

It was before CJRS was announced and I genuinely didn't know how I was going to make it through the next few months. I am one of the lucky ones that elected to pay myself far more than the recommended levels. of £780 (or whatever it was) so the CJRS helped out massively.

2 months from now, it could be a world of a difference from now.

I am optimistic that we're in for good times, and people will be out spending money to catch up on everything they've missed out on. Albeit everyone will be a bit germophobe-y.

With an overwhelming good response from the oxford covid vaccine trial (so much so they have ordered the manufature of 30M doses in anticipation of good 3rd phase trials).

More understanding of the virus (covid doesn't kill people, it's the bodies immune response to it, when it gets into the lungs). We'd be much better able to treat it. I heard on the radio (LBC) from an expert, that they are trying to work out what sort of conditions causes some people immune systems to overreact. Bood chemicials, genetics and other factors that are at play.

Whenever people say it will be 18+ months before things get back to normal. I have to remind them where were we 2 months ago, look how far we've come.

My genuine advice to you is to expect social distancing and far from normal for the next 2 or 3 years and a gradual removal of any financial support from the government. And plan your business moves accordingly. If it's better than that look at is as a bonus. If you think 2 months from now things will have improved much then I think you are being over optimistic.

There's not a lot actually changed from 2 months ago in terms of what you can do. And it's all under big scrutiny regardless. With many wary to commit to anything.

I do actually believe the sky has fallen in. And it's not going back up for a long while.

 

[Nico Albrecht]

There's not a lot actually changed from 2 months ago in terms of what you can do

Even in the global “hotspots”, the risk of death for the general population of school and working age is typically in the range of a daily car ride to work. The risk was initially overestimated because many people with only mild or no symptoms were not taken into account.

Source: https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

 

[Interestedobserver]

Even in the global “hotspots”, the risk of death for the general population of school and working age is typically in the range of a daily car ride to work. The risk was initially overestimated because many people with only mild or no symptoms were not taken into account.

Source: https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

So just to confirm are we going to stop counting or treating anybody over school or working age from now on?

Is that the solution we've all been missing from the start?

I believe Brazil have been the country with some of the most relaxed lockdown rules anywhere.

Last time I looked their Health system was on the verge of collapse

I assume they are making the mistake of trying to treat those over working age?

 

[Interestedobserver]

And the working age or younger people who catch it. Do we just leave them to recover at home because there's a good chance they won't die?

I just want to make sure I understand the way forward

 

[Nico Albrecht]

I believe Brazil have been the country with some of the most relaxed lockdown rules anywhere.

Really bad example that country. They loose more people per day getting shot than the covid kills.

 

[Interestedobserver]

Really bad example that country. They loose more people per day getting shot than the covid kills.

Less than 140 people per day die from guns in Brazil (still a shocking figure of course). But it's not a patch on Covid.

They are averaging 500 ish official deaths per day right now from Covid although some are saying the true figure in Brazil could actually be ten times that number!

Totally out of control over there

At least it's mainly those over the working age who will be dying though. We can all be relieved about that.

Social distancing not needed in Brazil.

 

[simon field]

Whenever people say it will be 18+ months before things get back to normal. I have to remind them where were we 2 months ago, look how far we've come.

How far we’ve come?

Tens of thousands dead in the last two months!

 

[Karimbo]

Less than 140 people per day die from guns in Brazil (still a shocking figure of course). But it's not a patch on Covid.

They are averaging 500 ish official deaths per day right now from Covid although some are saying the true figure in Brazil could actually be ten times that number!

Totally out of control over there

At least it's mainly those over the working age who will be dying though. We can all be relieved about that.

Social distancing not needed in Brazil.

worldmeters suggests they are in high 900s right now, and they are on or close to their peak.

The UK topped out at 1172 deaths per day. I don't think anyone in the UK should be judging brazil. They have one of the most relaxed rules on covid and that's a good thing. It means they won't have a 2nd peak and the virus will work its way through the community and build herd immunity faster.

Any sort of lockdown is an artificual restrait and it just delays the virus spreading to other people. it just prolongs the spread of the virus. Sweden and Brazil can sleep knowing that after the peak it will only get better. All other countries who had restrictive lockdowns will have that fear that after they relax the lockdown a bit, the deaths could increase and the public will start panicking and the economic acitivty stalls again.

it's worth nothing Brazil's covid deaths per capita (their population is 200M) is still far lower than us. They'd need to hit 3400 deaths a day to equal us on a per capita basis.

In the UK we like to venerate our old people every VE day, in fact we just had VE day and the whole country got together behind Captain Tom. Quite frankly, the way the UK has dealt with the care home crisis is nothing short of collective manslaughter. They killed off all the old people in care homes.

 

[Interestedobserver]

Brazil:

Experts have warned that due to undertesting, the actual figures could be as much as 15 times higher, cautioning that the worst could be yet to come. News agency AFP reported that almost half of all infection cases in Latin America and the Caribbean are in Brazil.

Mass graves and two health ministers have resigned in less than a month based on what's happening over there.

Health system on the verge of collapse.

Great model for us to follow

 

[Karimbo]

Brazil:

Experts have warned that due to undertesting, the actual figures could be as much as 15 times higher, cautioning that the worst could be yet to come. News agency AFP reported that almost half of all infection cases in Latin America and the Caribbean are in Brazil.

15K deaths a day? I highly highly doubt it. If it were the cause they would be dealing with an entirely different virus.

The virus kills broadly the same % everywhere, it kills off 70+ age groups at a higher rate.

I'm sure we in the UK will end up with the highest deaths per capita after all is done. This is because we basically allowed all our old people to get killed off in care homes. Our deaths will be above average per capita than other countries because of the care home crisis.

a) care homes understaffed as it is.
b) PPE requsitioned from care homes to NHS
c) no testing done what so ever, so people with suspected covid were allowed to return from hospital to carehome infecting everyone.
d) care home residents not allowed to take anyone into hosptial, so left to die alone.

I'm not sure why this isn't a big talking point. This has caused UK deaths to be higher than other European countries, todays death toll was 579. While Italy is on 162, Spain is on 69.

Once all the people in care homes are killed off, the numbers will drop down to where italy and spain is right now.

 

[Karimbo]

I feel brazil is the new punching bag to ignore problems at home. A month ago when italy had 900 deaths a day and we had 300, people were looking at Italy, and claiming they just have an aging population and have the highest deaths in europe.

Now that we're highest in Europe, we're looking at Brazil because we're doing better on daily stats, but thats not a like for like comparison.

 

[Newchodge]

no testing done what so ever, so people with suspected covid were allowed to return from hospital to carehome infecting everyone.

I think you will find that care homes were instructed they had to accept new residents, many of whom ahd the virus, as the hospitals needed the neds. Not allowed to return to carehome, but forced to leave hospital.

 

[Interestedobserver]

I feel brazil is the new punching bag to ignore problems at home. A month ago when italy had 900 deaths a day and we had 300, people were looking at Italy, and claiming they just have an aging population and have the highest deaths in europe.

Now that we're highest in Europe, we're looking at Brazil because we're doing better on daily stats, but thats not a like for like comparison.

What do you mean WE are looking at Brazil?

The whole world is looking at Brazil and shaking their heads?

Because of their approach

Do you want to post some positive media stories about the success they are having?

From anywhere

They are in crisis and out of control

 

[Interestedobserver]

I feel brazil is the new punching bag to ignore problems at home. A month ago when italy had 900 deaths a day and we had 300, people were looking at Italy, and claiming they just have an aging population and have the highest deaths in europe.

Now that we're highest in Europe, we're looking at Brazil because we're doing better on daily stats, but thats not a like for like comparison.

Brazil, the region's biggest economy, has handled the crisis the worst. President Jair Bolsonaro has rightly raised concerns about the economic toll of state-ordered lockdowns, but he's mocked the pandemic threat, clashed with governors over quarantines, and stoked protests against social distancing. Two health ministers have resigned in the past month. As Brazil grapples with the region's biggest outbreak and its steepest economic contraction since 1901, the epitaph for Bolsonaro's handling of the crisis could well be, "Some people died. So what? I'm sorry. What do you want me to do?"

Karimbo - I think he should make you health Minister!