The same could be said about the Pharma and machinery we get from the USA. It expect its because we have the knowledge / expertise in certain parts as they do in others which is why i think having a global approach is better allround. The other problem with the way the tariffs are set out is if Rolls Royce was to set up in the USA they would still get hit on importing all the car parts to assemble the car in the USA.
How will Trump tariffs affect us then?
- Thread starter ThatDevAaron
- Start date
Could the UK be self-sufficient? Nope
Could the USA be self-sufficient? Yes
Rolls assembling cars in USA is not Rolls making cars in the USA. Move all elements of production from the steel to the final polish to the USA, no tariffs.
Very good for USA, not so good for the UK, although we could keep the high value design elements here is we were smarter.
Apply to every other product and you're getting somewhere.
Then, add in cheap skilled labour from Mexico and raw materials from Canada and Greenland, and suddenly, it all starts to make sense.
We don't rely on the USA for anything other than oil and we have oil if we decided to drill.
Yes the USA could be self sufficient but taking the Rolls example the scale of economy work much better the way its done with all assembly done in 1 place with a global supply chain supplying. Rather than trying to serve 20% of the volume in 1 place with all parts manufactured in 1 country.
I may be wrong, but to the best of my knowledge, every attempt by a country to be self sufficient has ended badly
There are huge benefits to some managed inter-dependency.
We could also survive well by building relationships with our European neighbours. Perhaps some kind of trading bloc?
What like some sort of European free trade agreement that sounds like a good plan. Why would anyone leave that with no plan
They've forgot to factor in automation though (amongst other things). Plus, they ain't getting cheap anything from Mexico or Canada, the bridge has been burned to a crisp.
The calculations are based on creating huge amounts of labour jobs for US based manufacturing but, as we head toward 2030, manual labour jobs across the world are becoming more scarce - especially with countries that deal in scale. China for example, they have huge automated production lines for vehicles. They even have machines building other machines, 24 hours a day, no tea breaks. They only need a few engineers on site to fix things. The days of 500 workers crowding on to a workshop floor at 8am and leaving at 5pm are over.
As with Brexit Land, they're talking about a time 40+ years ago. The world has moved on, we have had our industrial revolution and now sit at the top of the service industry and even that is being battered by AI.
The US is trying to row backward but, in doing so, they leave themselves wide open for China to sucker punch them in to next week. China can afford to wait, the US cannot.
Minerals? Maybe. Easy to defeat with no real military and there's a US base there anyway. I imagine they know what's in the ground.
Someone else suggested it's a distraction, point at Greenland and then attack Mexico, as they have no real defence either but I'm not sure that really benefits the US. It would just make the situation at the border worse. It makes more sense that he wants to control the mineral exports, as he's already talked about this with Ukraine.
Because the people tasked with negotating the "deal" didn't actually want to leave, so they kept coming up with crap plans that they knew no one would agree with until they finally ran out of time.
Its what happens when you have incompetent politicians.
Mexico and Canada need the USA and will trade with it one way or another. Ultimately, neither could/would go to war with the US, and everyone knows it.
China v US is a sideshow and completely irrelevant, China has its own internal and external issues and will focus more and more on ASEAN/Australia/Japan than USA.
Europe is busy pretending to be scaring Russia and being careful not to look at its most significant threat.
The point is the answer should have been "Could the USA be self-sufficient? No", at least not within their current borders.
Video Production here. It's not just the tariffs, it's the general trading environment. If the general trading environment becomes less positive, customers will be reluctant to buy video to help them sell more. And one of our customers is effectively shut out because they're a defence business and cross border military sales between the UK and US are dead. But we'll see what happens. A week is a long time in politics.
Last 'hijack' post...........
They are uninformed because they choose not to learn. Given the will we could all wash our own cars, brew our own beer, and cook our own meals.
I don't doubt you can knock up a decent tasting dish but replication of a single or multiple supermarket or fast food standards is impossible.
For someone who has no sense of taste and ate the same meal for lunch for a year I'd suggest such judgements are left to foodies like me.
No, it really isn't. Any Indian family can cook something better and more authentic than a supermarket Indian meal, or even most British Indian restaurant meals, certainly those that pass as takeaways.
Pretty much all of them.
Just remember that the real economists are not working for the mainstream media. They are all working for the banks.
The economists that you get to hear are not economists. Those are just the PPE-lackeys in politics and at the newspapers and broadcasters. The REAL economists are those earning millions working on making the very rich even richer! They are called 'traders'.
The dot-com boom-bust? That was seen a mile away! The 2007 GFC? Even the BBC goofballs saw that one coming. The present crisis? I have been predicting this one right here on this forum for the past 5-6 years!
The current crisis is the same as the dot-com and as the GFC. This one and all the others are just the same repeated problem of debt. If you are in debt, you are the problem!
And governments everywhere are nearly all in debt!
Suck it up, kids! This is where I get to say "I told you so!"
I'm not sure you can call yourself a foodie if you think someone cooking at home can't match "standards" of a typical supermarket.
The banks that went bust? The banks that fired thousands of employees, including economists? Right, they planned it all along. OK.
What do you think an economist is/does?
You've been predicting Trump's tariffs since he was last in power? Any links? You joined this forum in Feb 2025, so I'm really interested to see the posts from 2020.
Anyway, given you saw it all coming, maybe you can share what you did to prevent being effected by it or benefit from it?
That might be useful for everyone.
A bubble-burst of some kind was almost universally predicted- what wasn't predicted was the sheer scale of it. That was down to a mix of globalisation and some very dubious mechanisms for securitisation. To quote Mark Carney (on the mechanisms being used) ' if this isn't making sense to you, you are right'
What an economist does partly depends on their job description. Early in 2008 I went to a State of the Economy presentation, hosted by Lloyds with their chief economist as headline speaker. He predicted continued growth and rising house prices.
Afterwards, my then co-director, who was extremely financially astute collared him and politely told him he was talking bollocks, that the Economy was over-hested and a recession was inevitable. The economist agreed and pointed out that his job today was to inspire confidence and talk the Economy up.
Really? Got a link to some of those posts with your prediction about Trump and his tariffs?
Incidentally, the Asian markets seem to have recovered already according to the FT.
Exactly, something bad will happen in some unspecified time and scale. Thats not really a prediction anyone can use.
Everyone knows that California is on a giant fault line, and there will be another big earthquake at some point. No one knows how big or when, and they're still building houses and offices.
Because its not a prediction anyone can use.
I can confidently predict Gold will hit $4000 at some point, its over $3000 and inflation will take it to $4k is we wait long enough. But its not a prediction you can use in any real way
Not really parallel. The lending/growth environment pre 2008 was absurd. A correction wasn't 'some time in the future' it was 'sometime soon'.
The only real question was how it hadn't already happened. Smart people had left the market. I'm distantly acquainted (friends of friends of friends) with Ireland's richest men. They bailed out of property in 2006 - because smart investors don't wait for the peak, they exit when the time is right. The suckers kept buying until it burst.
I do agree with you in broad principle - a stopped watch is right twice a day, but in the case of the banking crash the watch wasn't stopped, it was working on double time
To be fair, few people would choose to have the same main meal four days on the trot which is what @Newchodge said so it is a reasonable assumption. For lunch I'm sure many people have the same day in and day out but the same main meal is a rarity; I think just once in 15 years my girlfriend made too much lamb stew so we had it 3 days in a row, as nice as it was we didn't have stew for a long time after that.
Bringing this back on topic, I would like to think the tariffs will actually benefit the UK if we and other countries stand up to the bully by agreeing better trade deals between everyone except America.
Essentially sidelining to a degree the USA's tariffs while mitigating the financial impact; exporters who choose to continue supplying the USA would still pay more but this could be mitigated by paying less when exporting to other countries. Whether there's the political will globally to make this happen remains to be seen...
I'm not sure we will. I think we'll fold and do some sort of deal, not quite what he wants but something he can paint as a win. The US is a huge market, with huge global imports, when they cough, the world shakes. The only country that can match them is China, everyone else will just flake, like they always do. The EU is reliant on China for goods and the US for defence, so something will have to be done.
I got out of debt in the UK in 2000, though we held some structural debt outside the UK for tax reasons until last year, but then things got so economically dangerous when Trump was voted into office that we paid it all off and now have to pay 30% non-dom tax in Germany because we are living in the UK.
Back in May of 2021 I wrote "I've been warning this will happen for about a year now and yesterday Nouriel Roubini (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nouriel_Roubini) went on Kitco News to say the same thing."
Trump's madness is just the catalyst that sets the floods coursing down the valley. Such things are known as "a black swan event" - they come out of left-field and release a flood of debt. Too much debt is always at the base of any financial crisis.
Considering that the first CDOs to go phut happened to Bear Stearns in the Spring of 2007 and by September 2007, Stan O'Neal, CEO of Merill Lynch was told by risk manager John Breit that the bank (and by implication, most banks on Wall Street) was effectively bankrupt.
But Fed Chair, Ben Bernanke kept telling the world that all was well and "Don't panic!" well into 2008 - despite the fact that he more or less foretold the GFC in several of his books, starting in 1983 with "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression".
When you are the Fed Chair, you are not allowed to shout "FIRE!" in that crowded theatre. But the party was already over!
Six years ago, I wrote
What nobody saw coming was the trend for US government agencies and departments to move on-book debt into off-book debt. They were turning good old-fashioned debts into "unfunded future liabilities" (e.g. government pensions, Medicare, Medicaid and other social payments).
According to the Congressional Budget Office, the US government has $36 trillion in Federal debt and $6 trillion in assets - but a further $100 trillion in those pesky unfunded future liabilities. The US may have a GDP of about $30 trillion, but total real debt minus assets comes to $130 trillion.
If we remember Rogoff and Reinhardt and their 90% warning, we begin to see the size of the problem! Now add "The Madness of King Donald" as the latest Black Swan Event.
Unless Trump sees sense and backs down, I shall enjoy watching the US sink slowly and majestically beneath the waves. The question remains - will Starmer bite the bullet and form a free-trade agreement with the EU, or will he allow the UK to sink beneath the waves with them?
US Importers of UK goods will pay more. Exporters don't pay tariffs.
So many people just don't seem to get how tariffs work!
High tariffs on some countries actually opens the door for UK exporters with tariffs into the US (currently) set at just 10%.
As always, there will be winners and losers, but not the same distribution as before.
Only if you're @The Byre posting under a different account?
Hope there's some small print that goes with that, as not a good headline rate.
PFI schemes? , not new at all and not surprising.
Trump winning the election was obvious for a long time and he's been talking about tariffs since 2018 and made it clear pre-election he would use them again.
This is not "a black swan event"
Agreed! Trump’s mad views on trade go back decades — long before he ran for office. He’s consistently expressed a kind of old-school mercantilist belief: trade should be balanced, manufacturing should stay domestic, and other countries are cheating if we’re not “winning.”
So in his world, tariffs aren’t just a political tactic — they’re proof of doing something. Whether they work? That’s a different question.
The U.S. Fiscal Iceberg: What's Below the Surface?
Most people — even smart analysts — focus on the headline debt number:
$36 trillion in federal debt.
That’s the on-book, visible debt — the tip of the iceberg.
But beneath the surface lies a hulking $100+ trillion in what’s euphemistically called unfunded liabilities:
Medicare
Medicaid
Social Security
Veterans’ Benefits
Civil service pensions
These are legal promises made by the U.S. government — just not counted in the debt total because they aren’t technically due yet. But they will be. That’s why economists like Laurence Kotlikoff talk about a “fiscal gap” far larger than what the Treasury reports.
U.S. assets (including federal land, gold, and even the Postal Service) don’t come close to balancing that scale — maybe $6–8 trillion tops, and most of it illiquid.
The Rogoff & Reinhart Threshold -
Reinhart and Rogoff’s study (in This Time Is Different) — the famous (and infamous) finding that when debt exceeds 90% of GDP, economic growth tends to stagnate.
“At high debt-to-GDP levels, debt becomes a drag — not a stimulus.”
The U.S. is well past that 90% threshold even on official numbers. If you include the unfunded obligations, the real figure isn’t 120% of GDP — it’s 400%+.
And that leads to a conclusion the mainstream avoids:
The U.S. is functionally insolvent — kept afloat only by the dollar’s reserve currency status and the perceived invincibility of the American state.
Now Add The Madness of King Donald
Trump’s return is like adding a bowling ball to a capsizing boat:
Massive tax cuts with no spending control (2017 redux?)
Tariffs that hurt domestic businesses and consumers
Rhetoric that destabilises financial confidence
No plan to deal with Medicare/Social Security shortfalls
The worry here isn’t just debt — it’s fiscal credibility. If the world starts doubting U.S. fiscal stability, interest rates go up, confidence drops, and you get a sovereign debt crisis in the reserve currency nation.
Unthinkable? Maybe. Impossible? No longer.
Now to the UK: Will Starmer Bite the Bullet? This is where things get interesting. Starmer will face immense pressure to “be boring and stable” — post-Brexit Britain is craving calm after years of volatility.
But the economic logic is overwhelming:
UK exports have cratered since Brexit. Investment has fallen. The Tories' promised trade deals (e.g., with the U.S.) haven't materialised. Growth is stagnant.
So yes — the smart money is on Starmer pursuing a closer EU relationship. Not full rejoin (too toxic politically), but:
Re-entering the Customs Union
Regulatory alignment for key sectors
Rebuilding trust with Brussels
Possibly rejoining Erasmus and similar programs
Basically: Norway-lite without the label.
Final Thought
When the U.S. defaults, it probably won’t be with fireworks — it’ll be a slow erosion of trust, a creeping upward trend in bond yields, a nervous glance at the dollar — and then a new Bretton Woods moment when the world has to decide what comes next.
And when that happens, the UK has to be nimble — not proud. Free trade with the EU may be the life raft.
Service exports are up, and product exports are down.
Energy costs are very high in the UK, which hits all product exports.
Product exports were falling long before Brexit and as long as we pursue Net Zero will not recover to any significant level, whether we join the EU or not.
What is the EU debt level? Above or below 90%? Why join a failing project which is rapidly bankrupting itself?
Energy costs are very high in the UK, which hits all product exports.
Product exports were falling long before Brexit and as long as we pursue Net Zero will not recover to any significant level, whether we join the EU or not.
What is the EU debt level? Above or below 90%? Why join a failing project which is rapidly bankrupting itself?
Highest in the world.
Net zero is truly "Fools' Errand!"
I was talking to a politician and this member of that species was a particularly stupid but self-important buffoon. He was of the opinion that the UK could send electricity from Scotland where there is an excess, to Southern Germany where it is needed. I tried to explain that this is against several laws.
"Which laws?"
"Well, there's Jules Law in Physics and then we have the laws of Economics. And of course, there are simple realities of society and politics. People hate that nonsense!"
He was far from convinced - but then he is out of office and we have another knuckle-dragging fool in that position.
Last night, instead of drinking beer and falling asleep in front of the telly, I attended a meeting about some major new electrical installation in pursuit of Net Zero. There was about 100 people attending and a vote was taken at the end of the meeting - For and Against this development.
For - 0
Against - 100+ (the chair gave up counting!)
Abstainers - 0
That is the political reality on the ground.
UK is hovering around 100% of its GDP. Euro area is 88%, EU in general is 81%. i.e. dangerously close.
Lol no. I created a reply and it didn't load.......so let me try again...
By 'standards' I mean the products produced by brand owners that have cemented a place in the hearts and bellies of consumers. A Greggs sausage roll, Big Mac, M&S 'Best Ever' Tikka Masala (a personal favourite), Heinz Ketchup, Branston Pickle etc., can all be produced in some form in a home kitchen but not replicated. I'll say it again, you may knock up a decent dish or two but replicating the Chefs Special at your favourite restaurant or takeaway is unachievable.
If people feel the need to eat worse quality food at higher prices, who am I to tell them to do otherwise?
And that's hardly the point. We're talking about what you can do for *yourself*, not other people. My own food will always be better to *me* than some microwave green curry.
Most people who grew up with home cooking would rather have their mum's cooking, not a Tesco's ready meal.
It might not taste the same as a ready meal but the initial discussion was about the cost of food and how it’s cheaper to do it yourself rather than buy prepared food. Even better if you grow it yourself.
We have chickens. It’s taken a while but they are now profitable. Not a lot but we sell enough eggs each month to pay for a weeks groceries.
We have chickens. It’s taken a while but they are now profitable. Not a lot but we sell enough eggs each month to pay for a weeks groceries.
As an allotment holder, I'd strongly question the economic benefits to growing your own - particularly if you cost in time (as we are told we must as business owners)
There're too many variables to accurately calculate.
Don't you just love the volatility yes the pull back last night was very nice saw some equities up over 10% and again yes Asian markets saw some relief which carried through to this mornings UK open. Bit of a sell off for some as profits taken in early trading but focus should be on US CPI data, YOY and core inflation figures always (normally) seen as high risk trigger points but anyones guess this week. YOY current 2.8% expected 2.6% core inflation 3.1% expected 3%
Will all kick off again at 13.30 GMT - off for some more coffee now
My argument remains that people don't have or choose to make time for home cooking every meal.
See above...
Blame fast food and ready meals for enabling people to eat what they fancy. The old adage 'you eat what your given' went out the window years ago which is something that has to be factored in when cooking from scratch.
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