Gold going to new highs - end of fiat?

FreddyG

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For those who are interested in this stuff - there is some extraordinarily heavy selling of US government bonds and huge buying of gold going on right now. The volumes are truly huge. One purchase was so big that gold went from $3550 to $3606 on that one trade alone!

I think this just might be the beginning of the end of fiat money - as in 'All About Eve' "Fasten your seatbelts, it's going to be a bumpy night!"

Where and when this all ends is anybody's guess! It could take another ten years or be over in a year!
 

fisicx

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Of course not. Try buying your cornflakes with a gold nugget. The gold rush is all because of the idiot in the White House.
 
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WaveJumper

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    Nope its not the end of fiat, and its the UK government (Bank of England) selling their holdings of US bonds nothing to do directly with the US economy but more about trying to cover sterling. Keep an eye on France who are in the doggy poo, Germany not in a position to rescue their currency as they did before due to their own problems. Probably why dear old Rachel from accounts has pushed back her own plans in the hope the EU are about to fall apart.

    On the wire:
    ECB could issue its own bonds to save EU
    Gold could see a 40% retrace (so watch your positions / although currently around 67% of traders currently long) others predict 4k so take your pick.
    UK Bond / Gilts verging on the cliff edge, the city could hold the key to a no confidence vote in our Labour Government if (well more like when) the UK markets plummet through the floor


    DYOR but yes going to be an interesting month and as an old CEO I once worked for used to say "when the tidal wave retreats a lot of people are going to be left standing their with their trousers round their ankles"
     
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    FreddyG

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    Of course not. Try buying your cornflakes with a gold nugget. The gold rush is all because of the idiot in the White House.
    Remember that there are three basic types of currency - commodity, representative and fiat. The US was on the gold standard until 1971 and I believe they ate cornflakes before 1971. (In fact, I seem to remember watching them do it!)

    What is driving the gold price is that c.a. 10% more traders are 'standing for delivery'. Nearly all gold trades are paper and do not involve any physical gold and ownership of gold in a vault does not play any part. Roughly 95% of gold trading is paper-only (futures, ETFs, unallocated accounts), while only about 5% involves physical gold (bars, coins, allocated reserves).

    This massive imbalance is why even a small shift toward 'standing for delivery' could destabilize the entire paper market.

    But when a single trade causes a $66 shift and central banks from India to Poland, as well as the usual China and others, are all buying with both hands, what has spooked them in the past two days?
     
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    fisicx

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    TBH @FreddyG I don’t care. I was out yesterday on the Paddle Steamer Waverley cruising round the Isle of Wight with friends. Had a few beers, laughed a lot, enjoyed the sunshine and came home tired but happy. Nobody gave a toss about trumpcoins, forex, trading or gold.

    If you want to buy gold then crack on. I’m not the slightest bit interested. I’ll be long gone by the time there is change in how I need buy my cornflakes.
     
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    Nathanto

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    What is driving the gold price is that c.a. 10% more traders are 'standing for delivery'. Nearly all gold trades are paper and do not involve any physical gold and ownership of gold in a vault does not play any part. Roughly 95% of gold trading is paper-only (futures, ETFs, unallocated accounts), while only about 5% involves physical gold (bars, coins, allocated reserves).

    All very interesting but there doesn't seem to be an answer in there as to how you buy your cornflakes with a gold nugget? ...
     
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    WaveJumper

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    TBH @FreddyG I don’t care. I was out yesterday on the Paddle Steamer Waverley cruising round the Isle of Wight with friends. Had a few beers, laughed a lot, enjoyed the sunshine and came home tired but happy. Nobody gave a toss about trumpcoins, forex, trading or gold.

    If you want to buy gold then crack on. I’m not the slightest bit interested. I’ll be long gone by the time there is change in how I need buy my cornflakes.
    Down at the apartment this weekend probably saw you go past the window. I noticed when the Waverley came back into Portsmouth last night It was being held by the tugs for quite a while waiting for a couple of cruise ships to leave before getting towed in.

    Two of the Gosport ferries followed it in do the passengers have to get a lift somewhere with them
     
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    fisicx

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    Park up and a shuttle bus delivers you to the ship. A very pleasant way to spend the day. Mate of mine went up the Thames and under Tower Bridge which opened for them.

    A very impressive inclined triple expansion steam engine if you like that sort of thing. Which I do.
     
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    FreddyG

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    If you want to buy gold then crack on. I’m not the slightest bit interested. I’ll be long gone by the time there is change in how I need buy my cornflakes.
    It will happen in your lifetime - unless you are dead in the next ten years!
    All very interesting but there doesn't seem to be an answer in there as to how you buy your cornflakes with a gold nugget? ...
    Using paper currency that is based on a gold standard.

    If it is 1:1 backed by gold (impossible and extremely unlikely!) then the gold would have to go to £100,000 per ounce. On a more reasonable 10:1, it would be £10k per ounce. 20:1 and it's £5k - and so on!

    Please note that this is happening NOW! It is not happening in ten years time - it has already started. For the first time in 30 years, central banks now hold more gold as securities than dollars (in the form of US treasuries - bonds).

    As a business forum, you should all be paying attention to the one thing you claim to make the measure of wealth and success - MONEY. Today's pound, €uro, dollar, etc. is going away. Tomorrow's pound will be a very different animal.
     
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    fisicx

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    @FreddyG - it’s really not going to make any difference to most people. They are still going to be using pounds to buy fags and lottery tickets for many many years.

    My pension is going to get paid in pounds until the day I die.

    I seem to recall your other doom and gloom predictions that haven’t yet come to fruition to I’ll take this one with another pinch of salt.
     
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    It will happen in your lifetime - unless you are dead in the next ten years!

    Using paper currency that is based on a gold standard.

    If it is 1:1 backed by gold (impossible and extremely unlikely!) then the gold would have to go to £100,000 per ounce. On a more reasonable 10:1, it would be £10k per ounce. 20:1 and it's £5k - and so on!

    Please note that this is happening NOW! It is not happening in ten years time - it has already started. For the first time in 30 years, central banks now hold more gold as securities than dollars (in the form of US treasuries - bonds).

    As a business forum, you should all be paying attention to the one thing you claim to make the measure of wealth and success - MONEY. Today's pound, €uro, dollar, etc. is going away. Tomorrow's pound will be a very different animal.

    Blocks caps, bold font and exclamation marks don't make it true, they make it look alarmist.

    We already had a gold standard and it failed. It failed because it was elitist, inflationary and extremely limited. Essentially it was a cozy boys' club currency fot the upper echelons of a handful of countries

    My personal guess is that we'll end up with a currency-based stablecoin.

    However, Average Joe has no need to fret, unless they wish to speculate - the change will be non-dynamic and have minimal real impact on individuals

    THIS IS MY OPINION
     
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    FreddyG

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    If we are not going back to a gold standard, then why (IYO) are central banks everywhere buying gold and physical gold in particular with both hands? And why are foreign banks outside of the US, selling US treasuries and now own more gold as securities than USD?

    And whilst I'm here - the gold standard prevented inflation. And when measured in gold house prices are about the same today as in 1970? (Roughly 100 ounces.)
     
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    fisicx

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    If we are not going back to a gold standard, then why (IYO) are central banks everywhere buying gold and physical gold in particular with both hands?
    No idea, but it's not going to make any difference to 99% of the population. They will still buy fish and chips with pound coins and watch dumb TV on Sky.

    Not everyone is obsessed with wealth.
     
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    Chris Ashdown

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    Regardless of your wanton desire for cornflakes, with the present government looking at savings and many other ways to remove money from young and old, maybe some savings may be a good investment into gold which if done quietly may be a good hideaway from greedy politicians hands, especially OAP's who may require care homes in the future
     
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    fisicx

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    As my savings can be counted on the fingers of one hand I suspect the amount of gold I can buy wouldn’t fill a tooth.
     
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    Regardless of your wanton desire for cornflakes, with the present government looking at savings and many other ways to remove money from young and old, maybe some savings may be a good investment into gold which if done quietly may be a good hideaway from greedy politicians hands, especially OAP's who may require care homes in the future
    Which is, of course, the fundamental distinction between investment & currency.
     
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    Why would gold going up kill an Italian car company?
     
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    WaveJumper

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    US Treasuries in simple terms being sold due to trader nerviness over US debt (also UK problem too) and the impact of tariffs. So we move to safer havens, obviously gold which has had a good run, silver catching up along with several other precious metals.

    No real surprises there really, a brief overview would be many a trader is still seeing "blue skies" and pretty much long in the markets, BUT have strategies at the ready for any downward slide.

    Other than the metals a lot of money is also going into the energy sector and land to name just a couple of areas.

    No real secrets to many of these "situations" think back to the oil "crisis" oil being pumped no one wanted it and price plummeted actually to the point of minus $7 a barrel they couldn't give it away.............

    So traders got out (stops hit) and were shorting it like hell. Another BUT....... now where's the opportunities, so like in all market movements opportunities always arise, place your money in oil storage, oil tanker and shipping companies etc etc you get my drift, traders (sensible ones)will adapt and have plans in place for every occurrence.

    So what I am saying is the market is reacting to events just like at any other time. The big question now for our Governments is, they have presided over spending which has gone through the roof, the result borrowing costs rising as markets lack confidence in their ability to manage this.

    And who is going to pick up the pieces and be squeezed, the tax payers and companies and the latter being many a small company who cant offshore and play the big boys game.

    We could see a rapid reduction in interest rates, market has factored in a half of one percent decrease from the Fed next week and maybe another before end of year.

    Re your paper money, keep you eye on the US who I think are looking at some sort of model around keeping their 'global dollar' and perhaps introducing a "local" digital based system for 'internal' use.

    Interesting times ahead.
     
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    FreddyG

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    Regardless of your wanton desire for cornflakes, with the present government looking at savings and many other ways to remove money from young and old, maybe some savings may be a good investment into gold which if done quietly may be a good hideaway from greedy politicians hands, especially OAP's who may require care homes in the future
    If you buy gold, compare prices of current UK coins and do not buy bits of gold (mini-bars) as these can be subject to tax (CGT, etc.) Bullion by Post is expensive, so shop around! But their website is good.

    I seem to recall your other doom and gloom predictions that haven’t yet come to fruition to I’ll take this one with another pinch of salt.
    It's not a question of "predictions" - they are all the same prediction. And it's not for "Gloom and Doom" but for an historical turning point.

    The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid shortfalls that exceed $100 trillion. Prof. Laurence Kotlikoff (Boston University) has long argued that if you count properly, the "fiscal gap” is closer to $200 trillion.

    The UK’s official public debt is around £2.7 trillion (~100% of GDP). But when you add in public sector pensions, NHS obligations, and state pensions, the true liability rises and unfunded pensions alone count for (ONS figures) £6 trillion, so more than double GDP.

    Add NHS and other commitments, and you’re easily looking at liabilities many times GDP, just like the US.

    The European Commission’s Ageing Report puts total unfunded pension liabilities across the EU in the tens of trillions of euros. Germany’s net implicit pension debt has been estimated at 200–300% of GDP.

    And France and Italy have even higher burdens because of ageing populations and structurally weak growth.

    Now add in all the other flash-points and unexploded fiscal bombs and the dismal economic outlook and the latest US figures for employment and growth - or rather unemployment and a shrinking economy - and you begin to see that we are heading for a major turning point in history.

    And historical turning points = opportunity!
     
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    fisicx

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    That may be so but buying Gold is an investment not the means to buy cornflakes.
     
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