Europe should we stay in or get out?

[ShirleyM]

Scott-Copywriter said: ↑

However, when it comes to the portion of the 65+ who were alive during World War 2, they are mostly for remain.
​

I suppose I should do the usual 'Remain' thing and ask for your source, but I won't bother. It is bound to be a Pro-EU rag.

That is interesting, as it's absolutely not true of all that I know.

Same here. Everyone I speak to is voting Leave, bar one, and he isn't 65+.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

That is interesting, as it's absolutely not true of all that I know.

It was a ComRes survey analysis:

65 to 74 - 51% leave, 40% remain

75+ - 42% leave, 45% remain

75+ is in favour of remain with a small margin, but it's a big 9 point difference between the leave percentages in both age groups.

Also, considering that historically over past referendums the "don't knows" tend to favour the status quo by a larger margin (i.e. remain in this case) when it comes to making their vote, there's a high likelihood that the 75+ age group will ultimately come out 51%+ for remain.

PS: @ShirleyM there you go.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

As soon as they get to UK border control, whether they arrive from the European mainland or fly directly from Turkey, they will be denied without a visa.

Just been looking up holiday possibilities from my local airport. Turkey is listed. No visa required.

Looks like we want to go there but we don't want Turks taking holidays here.

 

[roydmoorian]

Does it actually say "no visa required" or is the e-visa included in the flight cost ?

"Visas
British nationals need a visa to travel to Turkey, except for cruise ship passengers with ‘British Citizen’ passports who arrive at sea ports for tourist visits to the port city or nearby cities, provided that the visit doesn’t exceed 72 hours.

If you’re visiting Turkey as a tourist or on business, get an e-Visa online before you travel. Only use the official Republic of Turkey e-Visa website. Avoid unauthorised websites as they may charge an additional fee. Some unauthorised websites have issued fake e-Visas.

If you don’t have an e-Visa you can still get a visa on arrival for £20 in cash, although the visa on arrival service is due to be phased out. Getting an e-Visa from the official website before you travel will avoid possible problems or delays at the Turkish border, or when boarding your flight in the UK." ?

 

[roydmoorian]

It was a ComRes survey analysis:

Aaah that explains it.. they mainly survey intelligent people...

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

Aaah that explains it.. they mainly survey intelligent people...

Interestingly, the polling statistics show that the vote is divided by education and social class.

When it comes to social class and education, those who went to university are most likely to be pro-EU - with seven out of ten UK graduates wishing to remain in Europe

University educated - 40 point remain lead
A-level/equivalent qualification - 16 point remain lead
GCSE highest level qualification - 36 point leave lead

Those belonging to the AB social class - usually in higher managerial, administrative and professional occupations - support the EU by 62 to 38 per cent.

Meanwhile, people in the lower C2 and DE social grades have net dissatisfaction with the institution.

AB social class - 24 point remain lead
C1 social class - 10 point remain lead
C2 social class - 20 point leave lead
DE social class - 26 point leave lead

So, on average, the better educated and more well-off tend to vote remain. There will be exceptions on both sides though, of course.

 

[Jeff FV]

It was a ComRes survey analysis:

65 to 74 - 51% leave, 40% remain

75+ - 42% leave, 45% remain

75+ is in favour of remain with a small margin, but it's a big 9 point difference between the leave percentages in both age groups.

Also, considering that historically over past referendums the "don't knows" tend to favour the status quo by a larger margin (i.e. remain in this case) when it comes to making their vote, there's a high likelihood that the 75+ age group will ultimately come out 51%+ for remain.

PS: @ShirleyM there you go.

So what that poll is saying is that those over 75 are more likely to vote remain than the 65 to 74 demographic.

You have then made the massive leap to suggest the reason the over 75s intend to vote that way is because of your so called peace dividend, having lived through the war.

Someone is 75 will have been born in 1941 and would have been 4 at the end of the war, an age at which children are still not really aware of the world beyond their street.

Let's stop with this notion that the EU brought peace to Europe - it didn't.

I still remain undecided, but one thing that has crystallised in my mind is the appallingness of all politicians and their willingness to lie to us. A plague on all their houses.

(One of my main reasons why I might vote out is I want less politicians , just leave us to get on with our lives. Coming out of the EU removes a whole host of them at a stroke.)

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

You have then made the massive leap to suggest the reason the over 75s intend to vote that way is because of your so called peace dividend, having lived through the war.

I really didn't.

I merely stated that this age demographic is made up of those who lived through World War 2, and that this may be a factor. Of course, there will be many other factors.

However, considering that this age demographic (65+) share a lot of similarities across all sub-demographics, and that one of the few key differences for the demographic which is 9 points less in favour of leave is that they lived through mass European war, perhaps it isn't so much of a "leap" as you think.

Some WW2 veterans also seem to echo that suggestion:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...eterans-come-out-against-brexit-a7019646.html

Someone is 75 will have been born in 1941 and would have been 4 at the end of the war, an age at which children are still not really aware of the world beyond their street.

My own grandmother can remember hiding in air-raid shelters as a very young child. When a country is carrying out mass bombing runs over where you live, perhaps it sticks in the mind of younger folk more than you think.

That aside, this is 75+. Not 75 year olds only. The majority of that demographic will probably remember it quite vividly.

Let's stop with this notion that the EU brought peace to Europe - it didn't.

I believe it did.

As I mentioned earlier in this thread, deterrence from attacking fellow European states (i.e. NATO) only solves the symptom. Working together so countries have no hostile feelings towards each other solves the cause.

When it comes to European stability, there's a big difference between countries being hostile but being unable to attack each other, countries being on neutral terms and tolerating each other, and countries actually working together as close allies where they cooperate and share resources.

War has been waged across Europe virtually non-stop for thousands of years - right up to recent memory. We are easily the most war-torn continent in human history. The majority of reasons have been due to nationalism where countries have looked out only for themselves with total disregard for each other, but the European Union has put that to bed.

And whilst we currently live in peace with fellow European states with alliances closer than ever before, other continents made up of so many individual nations, such as Asia and Africa, continue with war, hostilities and tensions.

 

[simon field]

It's like arguing with brainwashed cats!

Our glorious pm has even started on old people now, are there no depths low enough?

 

[sirearl]

It seems that people are more understanding and appreciative of the EU's influence on European peace when they have first-hand experience of the atrocities of war within our continent.

That of course would be a tiny proportion of the population many of whom may be a bit ga ga.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

It's like arguing with brainwashed cats!

Our glorious pm has even started on old people now, are there no depths low enough?

Politicians and campaigns have a duty to inform people of the risks and possible outcomes of a decision they may choose to make.

Although I do find it amusing that Brexiteers complain about "project fear", yet proceed to put up billboards saying "Turkey is joining the EU" when it has been consistently proven to be nonsense.

The negative impact Brexit will have on many different people is based on logic and is very well reasoned.

1). We leave the EU
2). The economy is damaged
3). Tax revenue goes down whilst the deficit is increased
4). The NHS, schools, housing, pensions and every other form of public sector spending are reduced.

It's as simple as that.

If that hits certain people directly, then they have a right to know.

 

[Deleted member 226268]

You don't seem to understand how the Schengen Area works.

The Schengen Area allows passport-free travel between EU states which are a member of it. However, we are NOT a member of it.

Even if Turkish citizens entered the EU, they could move around freely within the Schengen Area (i.e. most of the mainland) but would then hit a brick wall when they try to get into the UK.

As soon as they get to UK border control, whether they arrive from the European mainland or fly directly from Turkey, they will be denied without a visa.

You are assuming that they will be coming the legal way.
With passports, luggage, jobs to go to, etc.
Well, some might.

The vast majority of these people will never have seen a passport, or the money to buy one.

All the Turks need to learn from their T.V. back at home is that they have to get themselves to Calais,
join the Exodus, the thousands of Syrians and others who come from countries who also do not have any Schengen status.
Syria, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Central African jungles, Tunisia, Morocco, etc.

Where, on arrival at Calais, they will be fed and watered, housed, and if they are lucky,
they will be magically transported over here to the mythical land of milk and honey.


.

 

[ShirleyM]

The negative impact Brexit will have on many different people is based on logic and is very well reasoned.

1). We leave the EU
2). The economy is damaged
3). Tax revenue goes down whilst the deficit is increased
4). The NHS, schools, housing, pensions and every other form of public sector spending are reduced.

It's as simple as that.

If that hits certain people directly, then they have a right to know.

No's 2-4 - Isn't that exactly what is happening while we are in the EU? Plus, we are borrowing more just to send it to the EU.

You are turning facts on their head. We don't have limitless funds to provide these services to an endless supply of non-UK people. We need OUT!

 

[john1989]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8036097.stm#start

 

[Deleted member 59730]

Someone is 75 will have been born in 1941 and would have been 4 at the end of the war, an age at which children are still not really aware of the world beyond their street.

Well, that's my wife and I.

I think the answer might be that I have direct experience of doing business before and after joining. This is a business forum and it surprises me that none of the brexiters seem to think that working easily in a bigger market is a massive advantage.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

You are assuming that they will be coming the legal way.
With passports, luggage, jobs to go to, etc.
Well, some might.

The vast majority of these people will never have seen a passport, or the money to buy one.

All the Turks need to learn from their T.V. back at home is that they have to get themselves to Calais,
join the Exodus, the thousands of Syrians and others who come from countries who also do not have any Schengen status.
Syria, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Central African jungles, Tunisia, Morocco, etc.

Where, on arrival at Calais, they will be fed and watered, housed, and if they are lucky,
they will be magically transported over here to the mythical land of milk and honey.
.

Why do you think that will change if we leave the EU?

The Channel Tunnel will continue to exist, thousands of passengers and trucks will still have to pass through it every day, and thus the opportunity for asylum seekers to gain entry by hiding in or under trucks will continue just as it does now.

Only a tiny fraction of those in Calais manage to sneak through, and many of those who do, if caught on the other side, are housed in detention centres where the judge then decides to grant asylum or deny it and issue deportation proceedings.

Nothing will change in that regard if we leave the EU. If anything, the problem might get worse, as the EU is one of the reasons why France cooperates so strongly with the UK to police their side of the border.

If we leave the EU, why should France go to all the hassle and expense of dealing with them in Calais? It would be far easier for them to just let them through, get them off French soil and let the British police deal with them in Kent.

Be careful what you wish for.

 

[KM-Tiger]

as the EU is one of the reasons why France cooperates so strongly with the UK to police their side of the border.

Is it?

The treaty that enables British border control in France and vice versa is nothing to do with the EU. And if France really wants to play silly beggars it's easy enough to deal with.

Is there a 'jungle' at Heathrow or Gatwick? No, because people refused entry are immediately deported back to where they came from. So we adopt the same procedure at Dover and other ports.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

No's 2-4 - Isn't that exactly what is happening while we are in the EU? Plus, we are borrowing more just to send it to the EU.

You are turning facts on their head. We don't have limitless funds to provide these services to an endless supply of non-UK people. We need OUT!

Yes, we are cutting costs to close the deficit created by our own UK Government and the 2008 global financial crisis, but that's with the UK in a sustained period of growth which is supported by single market access and a stable economic platform.

If we leave the EU and the economy takes the hit, whether that's due to the tumbling Pound, single market restriction, currency outflows, reduced investor confidence, job losses or any of the other dozens of reasons, then cuts to public funding will get even worse. Far, far worse than any cost implied by the net flow of EU migrants.

Even Brexit supporters have openly acknowledged that there will be a negative shock to the economy in the event of Brexit. When the economy is damaged, public sector spending will go down, funding for public services will go down, and things will get even worse. It's basic common sense.

But then again, when so many people seem to be terribly misinformed about the EU despite voting on such an important decision, perhaps your views are not that surprising:

 

[KM-Tiger]

when so many people seem to be terribly misinformed about the EU despite voting on such an important decision

Please bear in mind that those of us that voted in in 1975 were also terribly misinformed, and worse we were lied to by Edward Heath as to what we were really signing up to.

Which does raise the question as to whether we would vote to join the EU now if we were not in it.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

Is it?

The treaty that enables British border control in France and vice versa is nothing to do with the EU. And if France really wants to play silly beggars it's easy enough to deal with.

Is there a 'jungle' at Heathrow or Gatwick? No, because people refused entry are immediately deported back to where they came from. So we adopt the same procedure at Dover and other ports.

Xavier Bertrand, the recently re-elected president of the Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie region, has repeatedly said the Le Touquet agreement would be torn up if Britain left the EU. He said: “If Britain leaves Europe, right away the border will leave Calais and go to Dover. We will not continue to guard the border for Britain if it’s no longer in the European Union.”

You don't seem to realise how this all works.

There is not a migrant camp at Heathrow or Gatwick because those attempting to board a plane from their country of origin do not have passports and visas and are thus denied at the point of exit.

People cannot hide in airplanes (and the odd one-off who manages to try once every few years often dies en route). However, it's far easier to try and storm a land port and hide inside trucks or under them without the driver ever even knowing.

The problem with your argument is that, due to international law (which has nothing to do with the EU), once a migrant gets on to British soil (even illegally), they have a legal right to claim asylum where a judge must consider their case and decide whether they have a genuine right to Asylum due to the high risk of death, persecution or torture in their home country.

If they do not enter the UK, they have no right to it. However, as soon as they step foot on British land, they gain that right to apply and be heard. Many are often declined even after reviewing the case, but they have a legal right to apply and reside in the UK (usually in detention camps) until their case is decided upon. This often takes years.

Right now, we only have to do that with the few who successfully manage to sneak in through the tunnel, which is a small minority. Imagine how many more applications there would be if there was an unenforced entry point on to UK soil from Calais.

Sure, they would be stopped at the border in Dover or wherever else, but as they'd be on UK soil, they can all issue asylum claims and must be heard. Then you have another issue. If they arrive without any documentation or identity, how does the UK know where they came from? How does the UK know where to send them back? If we leave the EU, do you really think France would allow the UK to deport them back to Calais?

Yet again, this is a prime example of Brexit supporters not fully understanding the implications of what they're talking about.

 

[john1989]

Interestingly, the polling statistics show that the vote is divided by education and social class.



University educated - 40 point remain lead
A-level/equivalent qualification - 16 point remain lead
GCSE highest level qualification - 36 point leave lead



AB social class - 24 point remain lead
C1 social class - 10 point remain lead
C2 social class - 20 point leave lead
DE social class - 26 point leave lead

So, on average, the better educated and more well-off tend to vote remain. There will be exceptions on both sides though, of course.

So in summary, people wanting to vote leave are uneducated peasants?

P.s I believe the data was sourced from the British Social Attitudes Survey in 2014. Personally, I tend to ignore out of date, questionable data.

 

[KM-Tiger]

You don't seem to realise how this all works.

There is not a migrant camp at Heathrow or Gatwick because those attempting to board a plane from their country of origin do not have passports and visas and are thus denied at the point of exit.

Then we use the same method for ferries and trains.

Or just give in to a threat from France?

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

So in summary, people wanting to vote leave are uneducated peasants?

P.s I believe the data was sourced from the British Social Attitudes Survey in 2014. Personally, I tend to ignore out of date, questionable data.

It was sourced from a YouGov survey carried out March 24th 2016.

People can draw their own conclusions from the survey. That's just the data.

Another point from that survey is that the regions with the largest leave vote are as follows:

Yorkshire & Humberside
East Anglia
West Midlands

Don't suppose you Brexiteers are from any of those areas, are you? Might explain why it appears as though everyone around you wants us out.

Rather amusingly, 97% of UKIP supporters want us to leave, with 3% of people, supporting the UK Independence Party, wanting us to remain in the EU.

 

[Newchodge]

Then we use the same method for ferries and trains.

Or just give in to a threat from France?

'With one bound Jack was free'.

Would you like to depart from Brexit tradition and explain exactly HOW you would use the same method for ferries and trains?

 

[Christian Annesley]

Don't forget to read our pieces capturing some of the best comments from the EU - in or out threads. Check out the left-hand content column for the links.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

Then we use the same method for ferries and trains.

Or just give in to a threat from France?

There is no same method.

Ferries and airplanes are a LOT easier to enforce compared to thousands upon thousands of trucks, cars and lorries passing through the Channel Tunnel every week where migrants can sneak into the massive Calais port and hide inside or under them.

Migrants do not try to get on them just as they're rolling on to the train, you know. The queues stretch for miles and offer many opportunities to sneak on and hide.

There is only one method to stop huge numbers of asylum seekers reaching UK land through the Channel Tunnel: rely on the French border police to stop them at Calais.

Considering the problems and costs they have to deal with just to protect UK borders, we should feel very fortunate that they're even doing it at all. It would be much easier to just allow them through and let the UK deal with it.

 

[john1989]

It was sourced from a YouGov survey carried out March 24th 2016.

People can draw their own conclusions from the survey. That's just the data.

Another point from that survey is that the regions with the largest leave vote are as follows:

Yorkshire & Humberside
East Anglia
West Midlands

Don't suppose you Brexiteers are from any of those areas, are you? Might explain why it appears as though everyone around you wants us out.

Rather amusingly, 97% of UKIP supporters want us to leave, with 3% of people, supporting the UK Independence Party, wanting us to remain in the EU.

Do you have a link to the data? It’s strikingly similar to the 2014 data.


Those three regions accounts for 30% of the English population. There’s a good chance that some of the out contributors of this forum are from those regions. It’s just simple probability.


I don’t see what is amusing about the UKIP statistic. Leaving the EU has always being a large part of their policies so it’s hardly surprising that their supporters want to leave. If it wasn’t for UKIP, we would probably have never had this vote on the table.

 

[john1989]

Considering the problems and costs they have to deal with just to protect UK borders, we should feel very fortunate that they're even doing it at all. It would be much easier to just allow them through and let the UK deal with it.

The remain would have us thinking we are completely useless as a nation and are entirely dependent on other nations.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

Even if we vote to remain in this referendum, a lot of damage will have already been done to the economy:

http://www.ft.com/fastft/2016/06/13/sterling-still-stumbling-negative-bets-build-up/

On another note, for those holidaying in Europe this year, they would have received 1429 Euros for £1000 GBP of spending money in November 2015.

Now, they will receive 1253 Euros, so this EU referendum has already cost all European holidaymakers £140 if they're taking at least £1000 with them, and almost just as much if they're going elsewhere as the Pound has fallen against all major currencies.

That's just down to opinion polls as well. Imagine the drop if we actually vote to leave.

This EU referendum is just in time to potentially take away hundreds of pounds from millions of British holidaymakers this summer. Talk about kicking us while we're down.

 

[john1989]

Even if we vote to remain in this referendum, a lot of damage will have already been done to the economy:

http://www.ft.com/fastft/2016/06/13/sterling-still-stumbling-negative-bets-build-up/

On another note, for those holidaying in Europe this year, they would have received 1429 Euros for £1000 GBP of spending money in November 2015.

Now, they will receive 1253 Euros, so this EU referendum has already cost all European holidaymakers £140 if they're taking at least £1000 with them, and almost just as much if they're going elsewhere as the Pound has fallen against all major currencies.

That's just down to opinion polls as well. Imagine the drop if we actually vote to leave.

This EU referendum is just in time to potentially take away hundreds of pounds from millions of British holidaymakers this summer. Talk about kicking us while we're down.

Do you honestly believe that the pound devaluing is entirely down to the looming referendum?

 

[Newchodge]

Do you honestly believe that the pound devaluing is entirely down to the looming referendum?

I do, yes. What do you think it is down to? Given that, according to Brexiters, our economy is much stronger than those in the rest of Europe.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

Do you have a link to the data? It’s strikingly similar to the 2014 data.

Those three regions accounts for 30% of the English population. There’s a good chance that some of the out contributors of this forum are from those regions. It’s just simple probability.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/03/24/eu-referendum-provincial-england-versus-london-and/

Of course it will be similar. If better educated and more affluent people wanted to vote remain in 2014, that is unlikely to change significantly in a 2 year period.

I don’t see what is amusing about the UKIP statistic. Leaving the EU has always being a large part of their policies so it’s hardly surprising that their supporters want to leave. If it wasn’t for UKIP, we would probably have never had this vote on the table.

What is amusing is that 3% of UKIP supporters are intending to vote remain. You would think that if they're a member of the UK Independence Party, they would all want to vote to leave, no?

 

[john1989]

I do, yes. What do you think it is down to? Given that, according to Brexiters, our economy is much stronger than those in the rest of Europe.

A lot of factors. The EU referendum may influence the value, but other factors such as growth inflation and and interest rates have had a more noticeable effect.

The US Reserve's decision to raise interest rates had a big negative effect on the pound.

The low interest rate of 0.5% also makes it less attractive for traders to hold the currency and encourages the sale of the currency.

But you're probably right, it's all down to the referendum.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

Do you honestly believe that the pound devaluing is entirely down to the looming referendum?

Yes. It is entirely down to that.

It was rising until November 2015, when David Cameron made his speech announcing the referendum. The drop in value has also accelerated rapidly as we close in on the referendum date.

Recently there has also been a massive surge in shorting against the Pound in the futures market, where people are speculating to make profit in the event of a large drop in value caused by Brexit.

 

[john1989]

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/03/24/eu-referendum-provincial-england-versus-london-and/

Of course it will be similar. If better educated and more affluent people wanted to vote remain in 2014, that is unlikely to change significantly in a 2 year period.



What is amusing is that 3% of UKIP supporters are intending to vote remain. You would think that if they're a member of the UK Independence Party, they would all want to vote to leave, no?

Thanks for the link. Will take a look later.

Look it a different way ... what other political party has 97% of it's supporters agreeing with its main policies?

 

[Newchodge]

A lot of factors. The EU referendum may influence the value, but other factors such as growth inflation and and interest rates have had a more noticeable effect.

The US Reserve's decision to raise interest rates had a big negative effect on the pound.

The low interest rate of 0.5% also makes it less attractive for traders to hold the currency and encourages the sale of the currency.

But you're probably right, it's all down to the referendum.

Do you think the US decision had that big effect on the sterling/euro rate, which is what the question is about?

 

[john1989]

Yes. It is entirely down to that.

It was rising until November 2015, when David Cameron made his speech announcing the referendum. The drop in value has also accelerated rapidly as we close in on the referendum date.

Recently there has also been a massive surge in shorting against the Pound in the futures market, where people are speculating to make profit in the event of a large drop in value caused by Brexit.

It was coincidental. November 15 showed the sharpest decline in industrial output since 2013. It was this that affected the £.

 

[KM-Tiger]

This EU referendum is just in time to potentially take away hundreds of pounds from millions of British holidaymakers this summer. Talk about kicking us while we're down.

The pound against the Euro has fluctuated between 1.4 ish and almost parity over the last few years irrespective of referendum or not.

To say that currency fluctuations are a reason not to leave the EU is pure Project Fear absurdity.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

It was coincidental. November 15 showed the sharpest decline in industrial output since 2013. It was this that affected the £.

Sure. The sharpest fall in the Pound since the 2008 global financial crash, the largest pull out of British currency since the 2008 crash, the largest shorting against the Pound in a non-recession period, and the highest volatility index since the 2008 crash, all occurring months before the EU referendum despite continued UK economic growth, is all a coincidence.

Alright then.

 

[john1989]

Sure. The sharpest fall in the Pound since the 2008 global financial crash, the largest pull out of British currency since the 2008 crash, the largest shorting against the Pound in a non-recession period, and the highest volatility index since the 2008 crash, all occurring months before the EU referendum despite continued UK economic growth, is all a coincidence.

Alright then.

You are failing to understand economics.

You are taking one piece of information and ignoring all the other bits of the jigsaw.