Europe should we stay in or get out?

[ShirleyM]

Just interested to know why you never responded to that original dialogue?

Do you read my posts? Meaning, the actual words I write, not the ones you think I have written?

ps. I rarely answer baited and loaded questions.

 

[Newchodge]

Do you read my posts?

I have to. I can't get so much humour anywhere else.

 

[ShirleyM]

I have to. I can't get so much humour anywhere else.

I don't mind making people laugh and I can take a bit of fun, whereas you appear to prefer dishing out misguided and unwarranted nastiness.

 

[sirearl]

Interestingly, the polling statistics show that the vote is divided by education and social class.



University educated - 40 point remain lead
A-level/equivalent qualification - 16 point remain lead
GCSE highest level qualification - 36 point leave lead



AB social class - 24 point remain lead
C1 social class - 10 point remain lead
C2 social class - 20 point leave lead
DE social class - 26 point leave lead

So, on average, the better educated and more well-off tend to vote remain. There will be exceptions on both sides though, of course.

Confusing education with intelligence is common amongst the less experienced.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

I noticed today that the EU referendum is not legally binding. It's purely advisory and the Government could choose to completely ignore the result if they wish to.

Conspiracy theory time. Where's my tin foil hat?

I do think there's perhaps a 20% chance that, in the event of Brexit, the UK Government will go back to the negotiating table with the EU, get a further improved deal and then start off a second referendum all over again.

Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage have made many comments suggesting that a slim win for remain would not settle the issue and give grounds for a second referendum. That works both ways as well.

Mr Farage told The Mirror: “In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way. If the remain campaign win two-thirds to one-third that ends it.”

Johnson has also suggested that he originally focused on a double referendum strategy to gain more leverage in negotiating a better deal for the UK.

Of course, if one party looks to be in the lead, they will claim that it's a one-off whilst the other party will argue for a second referendum - and vise-versa.

This certainly not as far-fetched as it may appear. Brexit would be utterly disastrous for Cameron's Government at the very least, and I believe that he announced this referendum whilst highly confident of a remain win where he could put this issue to bed. But alas, he was mistaken.

I highly doubt they will outright ignore the victory, but don't be surprised if a leave result leads to something other than a direct exit.

 

[john1989]

I noticed today that the EU referendum is not legally binding. It's purely advisory and the Government could choose to completely ignore the result if they wish to.

Conspiracy theory time. Where's my tin foil hat?

I do think there's perhaps a 20% chance that, in the event of Brexit, the UK Government will go back to the negotiating table with the EU, get a further improved deal and then start off a second referendum all over again.

Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage have made many comments suggesting that a slim win for remain would not settle the issue and give grounds for a second referendum. That works both ways as well.



Johnson has also suggested that he originally focused on a double referendum strategy to gain more leverage in negotiating a better deal for the UK.

Of course, if one party looks to be in the lead, they will claim that it's a one-off whilst the other party will argue for a second referendum - and vise-versa.

This certainly not as far-fetched as it may appear. Brexit would be utterly disastrous for Cameron's Government at the very least, and I believe that he announced this referendum whilst highly confident of a remain win where he could put this issue to bed. But alas, he was mistaken.

I highly doubt they will outright ignore the victory, but don't be surprised if a leave result leads to something other than a direct exit.

I think this is a quite realistic probability.

Didn't the Swiss government reject a referendum result a couple of years ago?

 

[KM-Tiger]

I do think there's perhaps a 20% chance that, in the event of Brexit, the UK Government will go back to the negotiating table with the EU, get a further improved deal and then start off a second referendum all over again.

It's not out of the question. Seems to me that we want to trade with EU countries and we want to cooperate with EU countries in many other matters. So a highly modified membership of the EU could do that. Though free movement would need to be an absolute red line in that.

Alternatively, we do start the domino effect and there won't be an EU to negotiate with, within a couple of years.

Personally I prefer the latter. If we can find the right Prime Minister, there is a fantastic opportunity to set up a Europe of trade and cooperation between sovereign democratic states. Where we recognise we are not all the same, but cooperate as far as is practical.

 

[john1989]

It's not out of the question. Seems to me that we want to trade with EU countries and we want to cooperate with EU countries in many other matters. So a highly modified membership of the EU could do that. Though free movement would need to be an absolute red line in that.

Alternatively, we do start the domino effect and there won't be an EU to negotiate with, within a couple of years.

Personally I prefer the latter. If we can find the right Prime Minister, there is a fantastic opportunity to set up a Europe of trade and cooperation between sovereign democratic states. Where we recognise we are not all the same, but cooperate as far as is practical.

That's what was originally intended.

The problem is that you need an organisation to administer it. That organisation needs money and eventually you would end up with just another EU.

The idea behind the EU was good, I just don't think it will ever be practical.

 

[Deleted member 226268]

.

The French are revolting .....Again.

Bin boys strikes.
Rail system strikes.
Airline pilots strikes.
Ferries and ports strikes.
Oil refinery workers strikes.
Nuclear power plants strikes.

I suppose that the Farmers will join in soon, just for something to do, they must be feeling a bit left out this year.

Brexit is not their biggest worry right now.

Maybe Frexit will come first.

http://www.thelocal.fr/20160613/france-facing-another-week-of-strikes-and-protests



.....And maybe everyone else next week >>>

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/it...spain-france-are-also-on-the-brink-2016-06-01

The whole system is crumbling down.


.

 

[KM-Tiger]

The problem is that you need an organisation to administer it. That organisation needs money and eventually you would end up with just another EU.

Probably not a single institution then.

We have the UN, NATO, Interpol. They are all organisations of international cooperation rather than top down power.

 

[MBE1]

So now we see the remain sides problems, now it appears Brexit is gaining momentum there is talk of further negotiations after a vote,the EU will not offer anything further since all other members will want the same, and Newchodge is shown to be posting the racist comments he accused ShirleyM of postingg, with no suitable apology to anyone. No wonder he supports the EU, who also ignore the truth when it suits them to do so.

Still too close to call IMO, naturally a lot of the undecided voters will tend to vote for remain, but there does seem to be a small lead beginning to open for Brexit, the more people see a possible win on the cards the more that will vote also.

The EU and the British Gov under estimated the general dis-satisfaction with the EU, and many countries will want to have their own referendum after ours. Time to cut them loose, leave the sinking ship, make our own way and most importantly regain our own country.

Would anyone actually want to join the EU in it's current state?

 

[john1989]

Would anyone actually want to join the EU in it's current state?

Countries that intend to take more out than they will put in will not be phased with it's current state.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

So now we see the remain sides problems, now it appears Brexit is gaining momentum there is talk of further negotiations after a vote,the EU will not offer anything further since all other members will want the same

This isn't just a remain side problem. Just a few weeks back when the polls were showing remain with a strong lead, Nigel Farage and others were suggesting that a slim win for remain would not put the issue to bed:

Mr Farage told The Mirror: “In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way. If the remain campaign win two-thirds to one-third that ends it.”

Neither side will get that sort of majority, so I'd expect the losing side, whether leave or remain, to suggest that this isn't over.

I'm not particularly keen on using an exit referendum to try and negotiate an even better deal. To be honest I find it a bit cheeky considering how favourable our current deal is compared to every other member in the EU. We're out of the Schengen Area, out of the Euro, have 3 other opt-outs in major policy areas and enjoy a large annual rebate. No other country even comes close to having a deal like we do.

You say "other members will want the same", but perhaps the EU would rather want other members trying to negotiate better deals instead of other members wanting to leave as well, as that would be far worse.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

.
The French are revolting .....Again.

Bin boys strikes.
Rail system strikes.
Airline pilots strikes.
Ferries and ports strikes.
Oil refinery workers strikes.
Nuclear power plants strikes.
.

None of this has anything to do with the EU whatsoever.

Francois Hollande is trying to reform France's traditionally lax labour laws to help reduce unemployment figures. They have some of the most generous rights and also the strongest protection from redundancies in Europe.

Hollande wants to relax these to encourage employers to hire more staff, and labour unions naturally want to keep that protection for themselves.

I'm going to stop arguing about the merits of remain vs leave in this thread as we are just going around in circles and will never convince each other. I'd rather discuss other aspects of this referendum. However, this "revolt" has nothing to do with the EU. It's a purely internal matter brought about by the French Government.

 

[KM-Tiger]

I'm off to meet Nigel Farage this afternoon. The Battle Bus has a scheduled stop quite near me.

Shall I say 'Hi' from UKBF?

Any messages to pass on?

 

[ShirleyM]

I'm off to meet Nigel Farage this afternoon. The Battle Bus has a scheduled stop quite near me.

Shall I say 'Hi' from UKBF?

Any messages to pass on?

Please tell him that he has tons of support from people who want the UK to be a free, democratic nation, and give him a big THANK YOU for getting us this referendum.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

Personally I prefer the latter. If we can find the right Prime Minister, there is a fantastic opportunity to set up a Europe of trade and cooperation between sovereign democratic states. Where we recognise we are not all the same, but cooperate as far as is practical.

I personally see the EU going in that direction anyway, to be honest.

The UK Government, for example, can impose things on the public they do not particularly like. They have 4 years to do as they please, and potentially even 8 years if the opposition during the election is even less appealing than the status quo (i.e. Ed Miliband). It's not like the UK population will all up sticks and leave.

With the EU, containing 28 members which all have a right to leave at any point (including the UK even if we choose to remain this time), they do not have such a privilege.

The EU know this and are certainly coming to their senses on that:

The European Union should abandon its "utopian dreams" of ever-closer integration to combat rising Euroscepticism, Donald Tusk has said

“I think that in the end, too much Europe will kill Europe,” Juncker, who is widely considered a European federalist, said in an interview with Der Spiegel magazine published on June2.

"Those that want to deepen integration can move ahead, while respecting the wish of those who do not want to deepen any further." - Donald Tusk

Even Eastern European members have their grievances. They are losing workers to other countries in Europe and thus have to bring in immigrants from outside the EU to top up the labour shortfall.

This influence flows down to the general public as well. National governments are beginning to realise that a push too far towards EU integration will reduce the popularity of their party when it comes to national elections.

One of the reasons I'm voting remain is that I believe we are on the cusp of major reform in Europe to bring about the right balance between integration and independence, and I think the UK can be one of the leading drivers of that.

 

[ShirleyM]

One of the reasons I'm voting remain is that I believe we are on the cusp of major reform in Europe to bring about the right balance between integration and independence, and I think the UK can be one of the leading drivers of that

I don't think the EU can be reformed in that way, and even if it could, it would be a very expensive folly.

The EU really is the epitome of a gravy train and so wasteful with taxpayers money. Better to throw it out and start again, with new people!

 

[KM-Tiger]

One of the reasons I'm voting remain is that I believe we are on the cusp of major reform in Europe to bring about the right balance between integration and independence, and I think the UK can be one of the leading drivers of that.

But some of the things the UK requires, like an end to free movement, will require fundamental treaty change.

Do you think that is achievable? And why wasn't it even discussed as part of Cameron's renegotiation?

 

[Deleted member 59730]

Please tell him that he has tons of support from people who want the UK to be a free, democratic nation, and give him a big THANK YOU for getting us this referendum.

And you seriously believe that Farrago is interested in democracy???

His only interest is in supporting his mate's gravy train. His leave campaign is supported to the tune of millions by a businessman who will lose big time because the EU believes in putting the consumers first and has banned mobile phone roaming charges.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

But some of the things the UK requires, like an end to free movement, will require fundamental treaty change.

Why do the UK want to stop one of the biggest advantages for the British people?

Try and think of this if applied to the UK as 4 separate countries. Would you want to stop the Welsh, Scots, Irish and English moving to another part of the UK to take advantage of job opportunities?

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

But some of the things the UK requires, like an end to free movement, will require fundamental treaty change.

Do you think that is achievable? And why wasn't it even discussed as part of Cameron's renegotiation?

Because I don't think anyone, including Cameron and the EU heads, thought this referendum would ever be so close. This referendum has also fanned the flames of eurosceptic sentiment elsewhere in Europe.

Note that those comments from Tusk and Juncker were made just in the past two weeks.

Whilst I want us to remain in the EU, I am, in a way, happy that this EU referendum has happened, because whatever the result, it's been a serious wake-up call for national governments and the EU leaders regarding the future path of Europe. Like I said right at the very beginning, whilst I believe remaining in the EU is better for the UK as a whole, I do not claim it is perfect.

Some of the agreements Cameron gained in his negotiations, whilst not seeming all that special to some, would have been unthinkable just a few years ago. Treating EU citizens differently to UK citizens was a red line, and that red line was crossed.

Some other previously unthinkable things have happened too. Due to the Syrian refugee crisis, many countries within the Schengen Area have imposed lasting temporary border controls. Major amendments to the Schengen Are are also in the pipeline:

In December, the European Commission proposed a major amendment to Schengen, expected to become law soon. Most non-EU travellers have their details checked against police databases at the EU's external borders. The main change is that the rule will apply to EU citizens as well, who until now had been exempt.

With any EU member being able to leave at any time, and the UK showing that it is seriously considering doing so, the EU heads know their hands are tied. Combine that with the fact that even Eastern European countries are starting to worry about the exodus of workers, and I really do believe that a major amendment to the free movement element of the treaty, amongst other changes, will happen in the next few years.

 

[garyk]

His only interest is in supporting his mate's gravy train. His leave campaign is supported to the tune of millions by a businessman who will lose big time because the EU believes in putting the consumers first and has banned mobile phone roaming charges.

Just like every single other politician/leading figure then, regardless of which campaign they belong to!

They all have their noses in the trough and lets be honest for all of them it doesn't really matter either way. You can be a lying b***ard of a politician and still have an illustrious post-politics career.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

I found this rather amusing:

But it does make a good point. There is a huge scope of authority, and the points in which that authority are placed are entirely constructs of the human mind.

Strip away ideas humans have created, and these "countries" are just specific lumps of land popping out of the ocean surface, or imaginary lines drawn across larger land areas.

You could have a global authority, down to a continental authority, down to an individual country authority, down to a regional authority, and even right down to every home in the UK drawing up borders around it and establishing itself as a country where each home makes its own laws for its specific patch of land.

Unlikely, of course, but technically possible.

Why is Pembrokeshire's sovereignty any different to the UK's sovereignty? After all, it has its own people, its own economy and its own culture, yet they are governed by laws made by an external power where they cannot make laws for their own region. Yes, they can elect an MP to Parliament, but we can also elect MEPs to the EU Parliament and have have a national representative in the EU Council and EU Commission, just like Pembrokeshire's representative MP in Westminster.

Plus, why shouldn't they be able to control their own borders? After all, immigrants from the rest of the UK could come in and put a strain on their public services. Shouldn't they also be able to police their borders to prevent radical terrorists coming in from elsewhere in the UK and carrying out attacks?

They also have a population of 122,000, which is larger than the population of many sovereign nations such as Andorra.

Surely the case for the UK's sovereignty in the EU could be equally applied to Pembrokeshire's sovereignty?

 

[thetiger2015]

If I believed that the British government would create a strong and vibrant economy outside of the EU, I'd vote out. I have my doubts.

In vote - more of the same, whacky rules and regulations handed down by unelected twits at the EU HQ
Out vote - more of the same, whacky rules and regulations handed down by semi-elected twits at the Houses of Parliament

To say we have a completely free and democratic society is a bit silly. We can only vote for those who are put in front of us and I fear we always have to chose from a bag of half rotten apples.

Plus, even with an out vote, nothing will happen for ages due to all the rules and regulations that have to be met before we are actually kicked out the back door. In that time, I imagine the EU will impose a whole raft of punishments upon our feeble government.

 

[Newchodge]

So now we see the remain sides problems, now it appears Brexit is gaining momentum there is talk of further negotiations after a vote,the EU will not offer anything further since all other members will want the same, and Newchodge is shown to be posting the racist comments he accused ShirleyM of postingg, with no suitable apology to anyone. No wonder he supports the EU, who also ignore the truth when it suits them to do so.

Still too close to call IMO, naturally a lot of the undecided voters will tend to vote for remain, but there does seem to be a small lead beginning to open for Brexit, the more people see a possible win on the cards the more that will vote also.

The EU and the British Gov under estimated the general dis-satisfaction with the EU, and many countries will want to have their own referendum after ours. Time to cut them loose, leave the sinking ship, make our own way and most importantly regain our own country.

Would anyone actually want to join the EU in it's current state?

And the Brexiters resorting to personal attacks, again, rather than answering the points raised.

(Just as an aside, I have not met many men called Cyndy.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

Why is Pembrokeshire's sovereignty any different to the UK's sovereignty? After all, it has its own people, its own economy and its own culture, yet they are governed by laws made by an external power where they cannot make laws for their own region. Yes, they can elect an MP to Parliament, but we can also elect MEPs to the EU Parliament and have have a national representative in the EU Council and EU Commission, just like Pembrokeshire's representative MP in Westminster.

Reminds me of a Candid Camera piece when Jonathan Rouse? set up a customs post on a remote road leading into wales and managed to persuade a farmer on a bicycle to have his contraband boot laces confiscated.

 

[Cobby]

I'm going to stop arguing about the merits of remain vs leave in this thread as we are just going around in circles and will never convince each other.

Aw. I understand the reason though.

Please know that I have very much enjoyed your posts on this topic. They have been the most level-headed, reasonable, informative and educational contribution to almost any discussion on this topic that I've seen.

Thank you.

 

[Cobby]

============

Overly-simplistic but remarkably xenophobic ....... Is it true, or is it not true ?

Not true. I pointed that out in the sentence before, keep up.

Ah, just like the Remainers. Ad hominem attacks because you have no real argument.

Really? The flow of information and statistics has continually supported the Remain argument and dismantled the Leave arguments. When Leave campaigners keep parroting the same disproven narrative, you're going to get a few 'ad hominems' thrown in just to check if you're actually reading.

You are failing to understand economics.

You are taking one piece of information and ignoring all the other bits of the jigsaw.

It's unsurprising you'd make that mistake given that almost all of the Leave campaign's arguments are exactly this, and one must be desensitized to them in order to peddle them honestly.

 

[Cobby]

They're right though, the pro-EU campaign has been almost entirely about scaring the socks of the public.

Hahahaha

"Please don't tell us about the risks of leaving, it's extremely worrying and we prefer not worrying to worrying!" - Almost Every Brexiteer

 

[Cobby]

The EU and the British Gov under estimated the general dis-satisfaction with the EU

More accurately, what this campaign has shown is that the Government perhaps underestimated the general population's dissatisfaction with the distorted and false picture of the EU that the Leave camp have painted.

That they didn't predict this is what would happen is surprising.

Countries that intend to take more out than they will put in will not be phased with it's current state.

Ah yes, the ponzi scheme argument.

 

[KM-Tiger]

Please know that I have very much enjoyed your posts on this topic. They have been the most level-headed, reasonable, informative and educational contribution to almost any discussion on this topic that I've seen.

Echo that. Very well argued by @Scott-Copywriter

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

Aw. I understand the reason though.

Please know that I have very much enjoyed your posts on this topic. They have been the most level-headed, reasonable, informative and educational contribution to almost any discussion on this topic that I've seen.

Thank you.

Thank you.

To be honest, I came into this thread knowing that I'd never convince any die-hard leavers to change their mind. My whole intention was to argue the case for remain in case there are any people reading this thread who are still undecided.

If it has helped even a few people on the fence to consider the merits of the remain argument in more detail, then it was worth it.

Funnily enough, I do find that this thread has balanced out to seemingly represent the UK as a whole as far as contributors are concerned. If we tally up the number of remainers posting in this thread vs the number of leavers, I suspect it would closely reflect the state of the UK electorate on this matter: around 50/50.

I still want to discuss other topics regarding this referendum, but as far as remain vs leave goes, I think anyone can find the information and sides of the argument just by sifting through this thread if they wish to do so.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

Anyone have any thoughts regarding my Pembrokeshire post? Especially you Brexiteers.

Whilst everyone is entitled to vote on where they believe sovereignty should lie on the overall scale, I do feel that, based on the arguments put forward, Pembrokeshire is just as entitled and deserving of an exit from the UK as the UK is from the EU.

If they wanted to, should they not also be entitled to withdraw from the British state to hold their own sovereignty on the exact same grounds?

 

[sirearl]

The highest property prices.( twice the next EU country )

The highest energy prices.

The highest car prices.

The highest rail & bus fares.

The most foreign owned companies.

The largest financial services ( money lenders )

In the EU.

Whats not to like.

 

[KM-Tiger]

If they wanted to, should they not also be entitled to withdraw from the British state to hold their own sovereignty on the exact same grounds?

Passport to Pimlico? (For anyone that remembers that film).

I guess they are, but would they want to. Do they have in place everything they need to be self supporting and self governing? The UK within the EU does have.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

Passport to Pimlico? (For anyone that remembers that film).

I guess they are, but would they want to. Do they have in place everything they need to be self supporting and self governing? The UK within the EU does have.

At least you're honest.

To me, this is the dark side of nationalism. Where does it end?

There are two forces in this world at the moment: one side trying to bring countries closer together, and the other side taking them further apart through isolation. Given human history, I do not have much faith in the latter.

You could argue that the world would be a more peaceful place if continents and countries divided themselves up so finely that every person of every particular race, religion, culture and political view had their own place to live with people just like themselves. However, this self-serving bias would likely cause much tension and conflict between each group - similar to how it does now in many countries across the world.

I do not think this world will reach its highest potential of peace and prosperity until people set this aside and work together, even if it's sometimes not easy, even if it's not perfect, and even if some things are more beneficial to others than themselves. However, when the human race as a whole turns toward that idea is anyone's guess.

I mean Christ, the UK is still the UK. We still have our own land, language, currency, monarchy, elected Government, public sector bodies, councils, laws, justice system, culture, towns, cities, people, sports teams, economy, films, television, national anthem, cuisine, businesses, industries, media, schools, university, science, healthcare, military, overseas territories, relationships, alliances and so much more. Yes, we may share some of those things with others, but they still make the UK the country it is.

Plus, we still have the self-determined right to leave this "club" at any time in the future even if we remain this year. Sovereignty is defined simply as "supreme power or authority". That option alone gives us sovereignty. We alone have that power.

Whilst we may cooperate to make decisions with the European Union, whilst we may share resources at times, and whilst we may not always get our own way, I will always be proud of the UK for taking that step, even if it just ends up lasting for 0.8% of the 6000 years of human civilisation so far.

 

[ShirleyM]

The EU is a malevolent force, destroying a lot of the good that the UK has achieved. Especially when it comes to law, freedom, and rights.

This explains how our freedoms and rights have been eroded by the EU, as EU law is supreme to UK law. Nobody ever explains these losses to the UK public. The typical EU approach is that they hope nobody will notice until it is too late, and it is irreversible.

 

[KM-Tiger]

Am I mistaken, or is the Chancellor of the Exchequer threatening the British people?

 

[Newchodge]

You're mistaken. He is doing his job.