Europe should we stay in or get out?

While the charts look dramatic, the pound is currently just two cents lower to the USD than it was earlier in the year. And that's on post referendum day 0. It's way, way above where they predicted it would be.

Once Russian and other money starts flowing into the UK to buy our (now) cheaper assets - land, houses, businesses - that will provide support for sterling. (It's also cheaper now to buy UK residence via Tier 1 which will also attract capital)

And, if you're a technical analyst, there's a positive divergence on Cable's daily chart (USDGBP) which suggests a further rise for GBP over the next few days to take us back up at least a few cents.

Don't sell the farm just yet.

You wouldn't say beforehand, but you were an out voter, weren't you? ;)
 
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Clinton

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    You wouldn't say beforehand, but you were an out voter, weren't you? ;)
    I was torn right up to the last day.

    I was extremely sad and disappointed, nay distressed, to have been placed in a position where I had to take a decision based on my enormous ignorance (on everything from the difficulty - or otherwise - of negotiating trade agreements, to the complexities of EU law and the concessions that may be necessary to extricate ourselves from the union.)

    My preference is for us to be in the EU, but that's for several reasons that didn't come up in the debate - the EU's opposition to GM crops, the EU taking multi-nationals like Google to task for monopoly / exploitative practices, the privacy protection the EU was instrumental in getting us (privacy which UK politicians would gladly sell us out on), the fantastic work the UK has been able to achieve together with the EU and the OECD on corporate tax evasion etc.

    My preference was to be in the EU but without the freedom of movement that seems to be upsetting everyone. Unfortunately, there wasn't that option on the ballot paper.:(
     
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    I was torn right up to the last day.

    I was extremely sad and disappointed, nay distressed, to have been placed in a position where I had to take a decision based on my enormous ignorance (on everything from the difficulty - or otherwise - of negotiating trade agreements, to the complexities of EU law and the concessions that may be necessary to extricate ourselves from the union.)

    My preference is for us to be in the EU, but that's for several reasons that didn't come up in the debate - the EU's opposition to GM crops, the EU taking multi-nationals like Google to task for monopoly / exploitative practices, the privacy protection the EU was instrumental in getting us (privacy which UK politicians would gladly sell us out on), the fantastic work the UK has been able to achieve together with the EU and the OECD on corporate tax evasion etc.

    My preference was to be in the EU but without the freedom of movement that seems to be upsetting everyone. Unfortunately, there wasn't that option on the ballot paper.:(

    Thanks for sharing your viewpoint, Clinton.
     
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    Alan

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    I see its Greece, Italy and Spain that have been hammered. ALl about 12-13%.
    Thanks for that insight - I was so busy looking at the UK I didn't think about the EuroZone.

    It adds to my suspicion that the avid remain campaign was hiding something fundamental from us regarding the financial health of the EU that will impact the wealth of the wealthy.
     
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    Scott-Copywriter

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    The thing is how many people were in possession of all the facts, all the negatives about voting leave, in my personal experience not many. Some work colleagues of mine were so uniformed, uneducated on it all that I felt they didn't deserve a bloody vote either way. I fear a lot of people have led us here who didn't bother to go and educate themselves on the severe negatives we may now face for leaving.

    This is why the referendum should not have happened.

    I respect that leave supporters will disagree because they have had the opportunity to get their way, but this is comfortably the biggest political decision we've made in all of our living memories.

    The ramifications of this, and the lasting effect this will have on the UK for many decades to come, cannot be overstated. It is huge. It is frankly shocking that this decision was made by so many people who were acutely aware of exactly what they were voting for and what the impact would be.

    "Project fear" was dismissed without a second thought, even though the dangers are very, very real.

    The sad thing about this is that this referendum was not held just to give the people the choice. This was held purely to stop the minority discontent within his own party. Dave figured he could hold the referendum, we would remain without any problems, and then he would be able to put the issue to bed and unite the party.

    However, it did not go that way. Whilst this referendum did end up giving the people the opportunity to vote for their majority decision to change, this was only ever intended to be an intra-Government whipping project more than anything else, and now it has spiralled wildly out of control.

    You could even see it in the faces of Michael Gove and Boris Johnson today. It has fully dawned on them just what they've done.
     
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    Scott-Copywriter

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    Firstly, we haven't left and secondly you can't compare our situation with that of Norway or Switzerland as we have a much larger economy and we will be helped in our negotiations by the French and Germans being desperate to continue to sell to us

    I've explained this plenty of times and I don't feel there's any point in continuing now considering that the referendum is over and the decision has been made.

    We'll pick up on this thread again in a few years time and then we'll see just how "desperate" both of these countries are. You vastly, vastly overestimate it, but it may be better if you see that for yourself in time.
     
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    Scott-Copywriter

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    @KM-Tiger , here are the "regrexiters" I mentioned earlier:

    http://metro.co.uk/2016/06/24/peopl...leave-the-eu-heres-what-they-told-us-5965067/

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...extraordinary-moment-brexit-voter-changes-he/

    http://www.vox.com/2016/6/24/12024634/brexit-supporters-regret-vote

    one man who voted "Leave" said, "I didn’t think my vote was going to matter too much because I thought we were just going to remain"

    "This morning the reality is actually hitting in and the regret is hitting in"

    "Urm I think I kinda regret my vote, I had no real reason to pick what I did!!"

    There's even a Twitter hashtag:

    https://twitter.com/search?q=regrexit&src=typd

    And others are coming out saying they feel robbed because Nigel Farage said today that the "£350 million" per week wouldn't go the NHS and shouldn't have been said. What frustrates me most of all is not that he said this. It's that so many people actually believed him.

    The fact anyone regrets their vote to leave within the first 24 hours of the result is frankly disgraceful. So many people have just not taken this vote seriously and not fully understood the ramifications of what they've voted for.

    The day anyone regrets their leave vote because they "didn't think we would actually leave", is the day the principle of democracy has failed.
     
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    threenine

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    I have to say I share @Clinton 's view on this. Probably one of the most profound and sobering comments in this entire debate. The rest of the garbage about Sovereignty, democracy and trade deals is just noise.

    The reverberations of this decision are going to be felt for a long.

    I really don't think euphoria of the Brexiters is going to last.
     
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    D

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    probably greatest false hope in history.


    Really?

    If the UK government decided to impose import tariffs on (say) engineering products imported from countries that we don't have a trade deal with how long do you think it would take the Germans to complete one with the likes of Audi, BMW, Mercedes and Volkswagen bringing down their necks.

    Likewise with French cars as well as cheese and wine.

    France and Germany need us as an export market much more than we need them
     
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    We'll pick up on this thread again in a few years time and then we'll see just how "desperate" both of these countries are. You vastly, vastly overestimate it, but it may be better if you see that for yourself in time.

    I can just see our roads in a few years time clear of Audi, BMW, Citroen, Mercedes, Peugeot, Renault and Volkswagen cars because the French and German governments wanted to teach us a lesson so dragged their heels on new trade agreements.

    You have also predicted the collapse of sterling which means that it will become cheaper for those French and German cars and car parts that are manufactured in the Uk to be exported to the Eurozone but I guess that BMW, Peugeot and the like will move their car plants from England to more expensive countries just to spite us.
     
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    Two out of three people at my work (men in their 50's)who voted out have literally just said to me they'd wished they had voted the other way now!!!!! Honestly, it amazes me that people of that age can be so fickle about this,

    Why do people believe in that old chestnut "with great age comes wisdom" as it's just not true.

    It seems that a lot of people who voted Brexit have been affected by the scaremongering that has not only continued but actually got much worse since the results were announced.

    If leaving the EC were to have the dire consequences that some are predicting there is no way that Cameron and Osborne would have allowed a referendum on the subject
     
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    threenine

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    Why do people believe in that old chestnut "with great age comes wisdom" as it's just not true.

    Judging by the demographics of the results I think that has become blatantly clear.

    I can just see our roads in a few years time clear of Audi, BMW, Citroen, Mercedes, Peugeot, Renault and Volkswagen cars because the French and German governments wanted to teach us a lesson so dragged their heels on new trade agreements.

    I'm not particularly concerned about the price of my next luxury german sedan, I'm more worried about what we will actually sell them! What it's actually worth to them
     
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    Enough of the doom and gloom. Set yourself up for failure and you will surely succeed. Are the Remainers so bitter that they would assist in destroying the UK? Would they do the same to their own business and livelihood? I sincerely hope not.

    Better to be free and in charge of our own destiny. We are the 5th biggest economy and if we can't go it alone then we are all to blame.

    Here is something to raise our spirits:
     
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    Clinton

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    Two out of three people at my work (men in their 50's)who voted out have literally just said to me they'd wished they had voted the other way now!!!!! Honestly, it amazes me that people of that age can be so fickle about this, their not even standing by their decision for more than a day!!!
    The day after the referendem the second most popular search in Google UK was, according to Google Trends, "what is the EU?"

    Perhaps all the people searching this question are people who didn't vote. I hope.

    If they did they are waking up to consequences many did not anticipate. No, not the pound falling, the pound will recover. We've lost a good and decent PM, the country will lurch to the right politically (which many of the Labour brexiters probably didn't anticipate) and, ironically, we'll get a flood of EU migrants like never before all seeking to beat the two year window to implementation of our Article 50 choice.

    Let's face facts. We didn't have a referendum because the nation needed one. We had a referendum because the Tory party needed one, because EU scepticism has been a festering sore in the party for a long time, because Cameron had to promise a referedum to keep the peace (and to win back some Tories who defected to UKIP). As Scott-copywriter says above.

    What we did need was some reclaiming of powers from Brussels and more control over immigration to pacify those who feel that immigration is pushing down wages and putting pressure on public services (which, to be fair, it probably is).

    Instead what we go was a largely ignorant public voting based on soundbites, public who channelled into an anti-EU vote all their anger against job losses, austerity, low wages, bankers, Tories, Labour ...and their neighbour's dog.

    That's not the intelligent way to take big decisions.

    Leaving may turn out to be the best decision we ever made, this country will survive and do well. But giving the choice to the public was the worst decision we ever made. We made it for the wrong reasons. We asked the wrong people. This isn't Britain's Got Talent.
     
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    D

    Deleted member 226268

    .

    This entire post relies on the general illusion and assumption that the UK is an important trading member of Europe.

    But you have to ask yourself exactly what BRITISH goods do the UK manufacture and sell to those other countries in Europe.

    Goods that any of the other countries in mainland Europe cannot make or produce for themselves, and at less cost.

    Eg. what do we sell to France, Germany, Italy, that they cannot produce for themselves ?.

    We are just a warehouse island, an assembly place, for foreign companies who use us as a platform very conveniently close to Europe,

    so that they can avoid importation and shipping costs, customs duties,
    by having their equipment assembled here, and then sold throughout Europe.


    Apart from that reason, it seems to me that we .. England... are only an important member of Europe,

    because we now have to buy goods from the other European countries, because we are simply not capable of manufacturing
    those goods ourselves....any longer.

    If this was not the case, where we did not need to buy any goods from them,
    I am sure that all the mainland European countries would not regard us over here as a valid part of Europe.

    .
     
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    Clinton

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    @dave archer, that's not a good argument, I'm afraid. Last year the UK exported to the world:

    - Machines, engines, pumps: US$63.9 billion (13.9% of total exports)
    -Vehicles: $50.7 billion (11%)
    - Pharmaceuticals: $36 billion (7.8%)
    - Oil: $33.2 billion (7.2%)
    - Electronic equipment: $29 billion (6.3%)
    - Aircraft, spacecraft: $18.9 billion (4.1%)
    - Medical, technical equipment: $18.4 billion (4%)
    - Organic chemicals: $14 billion (3%)
    and many others.

    Much of that went to EU countries especially machines, vehicles and aircraft parts. And those goods were produced in the UK.
     
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    So much hysteria.

    Woke up this morning and the sun was still shining, reckon it will tommorow as well.

    Guys, we are where we are, time to move on with life, the country has decided it wanted to exercise it's democracy, some on here disagree that it should have happened now the vote has gone against their wishes, but that simply means they want to live in a dictatorship, not the UK.

    Stay positive, be happy, live free.

    Remember, good things rarely come to those that wait, it normally comes to those that get off their arses and work hard.

    I thought this was a business forum with like minded people, seems I was wrong, never seen so much hysteria and negativity in my life.

    I'm out of this thread to do something positive, I'll leave the moaners to get on with it.
     
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    Scott-Copywriter

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    I can just see our roads in a few years time clear of Audi, BMW, Citroen, Mercedes, Peugeot, Renault and Volkswagen cars because the French and German governments wanted to teach us a lesson so dragged their heels on new trade agreements.

    You do not fully understand how this works.

    Germany and France, as part of the EU, cannot negotiate independent trade deals with the UK. Within the EU, it's the whole trading bloc which collectively negotiates trade deals on behalf of all EU members.

    Sure, some industries in Germany and France will not be happy, but they alone do not have anywhere near enough of a vote share to push through FTAs. The majority of members must agree, and plenty of them are far from happy about this and consider the need to avoid encouraging other countries to leave a very high priority:

    The Handelsblatt newspaper said a leaked eight-page emergency Brexit plan suggested the German government should push for an “associative status” for Britain after two years of “difficult divorce negotiations”.

    The document indicated that Germany would drive a hard bargain to “avoid offering false incentives for other member states when settling on new arrangements”. Specifically, the paper advocates “no automatic access to the single market”, Handelsblatt reported on Friday afternoon.

    And this is Germany as well, the country you claim will bend over backwards for us. Not sure if you realise that we only account for 7.4% of their export trade. The EU as a whole counts for 45% of ours. We are really not in a very good position here.

    You have also predicted the collapse of sterling which means that it will become cheaper for those French and German cars and car parts that are manufactured in the Uk to be exported to the Eurozone but I guess that BMW, Peugeot and the like will move their car plants from England to more expensive countries just to spite us.

    Not to spite us. It just makes good business sense.

    Inside the EU these companies had open access to the single market, no tariffs, no quotas, no restrictions, and full alignment of all relevant regulations.

    All of that is now at risk, and the easiest way to solve this headache and to end the uncertainty as quickly as possible is to simply scale back production in the UK to bring more of it back into the single market.

    Plants probably won't close (at least not yet, anyway), but in the next few years expect a fair few redundancies across the UK as big manufacturers scale back production and award new contracts to plants which will remain inside the EU.
     
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    You do not fully understand how this works

    I do understand this:
    “Europe’s nations should be guided towards the superstate without their people understanding what is happening. This can be accomplished by successive steps, each disguised as having an economic purpose, but which will eventually and irreversibly lead to federation.”

    I don't accept that is the way things have to be. Times change. People change. Businesses change. Countries change. Adapt or die. Other countries manage just fine without the EU.

    You carry on with your pessimism. Others will grasp the opportunities that will arise now we are soon to be free of the EU shackles.
     
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    Scott-Copywriter

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    https://www.moodys.com/research/Moo...-sovereign-rating-to-negative-from--PR_350566

    Cuts from S&P and Fitch are also soon to follow, just at the point where the UK is going to have to ramp up borrowing to stabilise the markets and finance this whole thing.

    The past 6 years of austerity are effectively going to have been for nothing. The gradual reduction in the UK deficit will be wiped out as it bounces right back up possibly to around 2008 levels.
     
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    simon field

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    Interesting piece I saw earlier:

    Why The Result? Passion Versus Smug Superiority
    ========================================

    I truly believe the result has come as a profound psychological shock to most Remainers. Hence the tirades of angry abuse ladled out today on FB and elsewhere.

    Remainers have, for years, assumed their world view was almost universally held - it was "normal", "right", and "obvious" - and any nasty brutish oafs that raised the subject of immigration were a backward nasty minority of no more than maybe 20% - the ill-educated, racist, and bigoted - easily led types, not given to proper thinking, like WE are.

    Because, of course, if those stupid Leavers had THOUGHT, at all, they would think like us, right? And see that the EU is the obvious way forward.

    I believe most Remainers really thought they were going to win a majority of something like 78% Remain, 22% Leave. And therefore many did not feel strongly enough to turn out.

    Now for Remainers to find out that your own - fondly assumed "majority" sensible humane views are actually a minority - that you only command 48% of those voting, and perhaps much lesser percentage of the electorate - 28% of whom weren't interested enough to turn out is a hell of a shcock when you truly believed you were part of an overwhelming majority of nearly 80%.

    Now it may be that a good percentage of the non-voters were Remainers, who, thinking like I have outlined here, that they already had a socking majority, didn't feel they needed to vote.

    Leavers, on the other hand, were absolutely passionate and determined that every last ONE of them would, come hell or high water, vote for what they believed in.

    Why the different attitude?

    Because they were heartily sick of their legitimate concerns being sneered at, derided, and brushed aside as irrelevant ramblings of the deluded or plain nasty.

    Remainers do not, by and large, live in areas taken over by immigrants. This became crystal clear when looking at the maps of who voted for what today. The areas where Remain were in the majority were ALL if not wealthy, at least comfortably upper-middle-classly-off.

    The more lower-class areas, those where immigrants tend to congregate for cheap housing and unskilled job availability, were Leavers to a man. And if the immigrants hadn;t got there yet, they didn;t WANT them, so voted Leave to stop their home area sliding down further.

    It is a money map - the money says Remain, lack of money says Leave. That's because having money shields you from problems.

    Remainers' jobs and careers are not threatened by a cheaper workforce underbidding their salaries on a daily basis.

    They have NO idea what a Zero Hours contract is - and would be outraged if their comfortable middle-class salary, guaranteed to be the same each month, were suddenly changed to a variable amount, with NO guarantee that they would have ANYTHING in their bank at the end of the month to meet the mortgage and bills..

    Those MP's who deride the Leavers should immediately be put onto such a regime, and see how THEY like it.

    What has this to do with immigrants? Easy - if, as an employer, every job vacancy you have is overwhelmed by 100+ applicants desperate for ANY sort of work on any terms, can introduce such onerous terms. You can;t be underpaying - if you were, all these peo;le would not be clamouring at the gates to be taken on.

    That is the situation in high-immigrant areas. Things are valued in the reverse to their abundance. If there is loads of something available, it is worth nothing (strawberries in August). If the item is scarce, the value shoots up. (strawberries in February!)

    Large employers, like Amazon, and Sports Direct,(and even M&S's distribution centre) do NOT value their staff, they keep them at arms length, employing them through agencies or third parties on zero hours contracts. Anyone who makes waves in ANY way, is not given any more hours, and is forced to resign - but with no possibility of Unfair Dismissal. Why can they do this? Because for every person that quits, 100 are lined up to take his/her place! Why would you need to treat your staff better? You're obviously paying them enough - if you weren't - they wouldn't be queuing up to be taken on!.

    The extreme pressure on schools and doctors surgeries in high-immigrant areas, where many cannot get an appointment for 4 weeks or more is a regular experience for Leavers. .

    Remainers, needless to say, usually do not live in such an area, and can't understand what all the fuss is about. They can get a GP appointment is a few days. Their exclusive upper--middle class primary and secondary schools are not overrun with immigrants. They are academies, which can select or Faith schools, which can also select.

    These weird people that complain about immigrants (the Remainers think) must be racists, there's no problem at all!

    So, Leavers have been totally fed up with being derided and told their problems are imaginary - and that they are racist and bigoted for even raising them. They have been ignored and abused like this for years, by MP's Political parties, The BBC, the Guardian, Channel 4, and many other media outlets. Which tend to be staffed by people who fit the Remain profile.

    Leavers saw this as their one chance to be heard and not drowned out by the Remain mindset (which controls the media).

    They phoned each other, arranged lifts, organised proxy votes weeks ago for those who would be away or ill, and made sure that EVERYONE they knew turned out to a man (or woman) to vote Leave.

    "Yes, you b*stards" (they thought), "THAT is for all the insults, derision, and smug superior attitudes you Remainers have pushed at us for years."

    That explains the result.

    Now, Remainers, you have to ruminate on this:

    IF YOU HAD NOT BEEN SO AGGRESSIVE AND DERISORY TO ALL THOSE BADLY AFFECTED BY IMMIGRATION, you would not have made them so mad, and they would not have organised themselves so much better than you.

    In your smug superior way, you thought you had a thumping natural majority. You didn't.

    YOUR desisory attitudes and sneering air of superiority caused this.

    Suck it up, buttercup!
     
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    The past 6 years of austerity are effectively going to have been for nothing. The gradual reduction in the UK deficit will be wiped out as it bounces right back up possibly to around 2008 levels.

    It was all for nothing even if we Remained. None of the EU nations want to willingly give up their country to a federal state. It had to end one day. As the Dragons say: I'm OUT.
     
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    KM-Tiger

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    Cuts from S&P and Fitch are also soon to follow, just at the point where the UK is going to have to ramp up borrowing to stabilise the markets and finance this whole thing.
    UK Gilt yields fell yesterday which implies the opposite. I don't think knee jerk reaction from the ratings agencies is anything to worry about.

    Doubtless there will be some economic shocks, but there would have been had we remained. The difference is we are now in a better position to deal with them.
     
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    Scott-Copywriter

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    I don't accept that is the way things have to be. Times change. People change. Businesses change. Countries change. Adapt or die. Other countries manage just fine without the EU.

    You carry on with your pessimism. Others will grasp the opportunities that will arise now we are soon to be free of the EU shackles.

    Other countries manage just fine without the EU because they've had 30+ years to build their own FTAs and now survive today with a huge trading framework in place which takes an awful long time to build.

    Take Switzerland. They've had decades to build their own FTAs which they enjoy today, and they are also a member of the EFTA.

    Everything the UK is built on today when it comes to global trade will be reset to zero. We will be the only country in the world in this position, and it will take decades to build it back up just to get back to where we were before.

    To have any hope whatsoever for the UK economy, we will almost certainly have to join a trading bloc. I would not be surprised if we join up to the EEA in the short-to-medium term with many of the same regulations, budget payments and perhaps even free movement of labour.

    But hey, it will be easier for the penny to drop when this all pans out for real, so we'll just now wait and see.
     
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    No it won't take years. We have the WTO to fall back on. Not perfect I know, but a damn sight better than the EU trade scam. What do think would happen if another trading bloc says you can join, but we demand a high membership fee, political rule and free movement of people. The EU is just a protection racket like the Mafia.

    You could save yourself (and us) a lot of pain by emigrating to the EU, while you have the chance. I hear there are many EU countries that are desperate for new business and you can still trade with the EU.
     
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    threenine

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    That article just illustrates the backward thinking. It's absolutely full of outdated "class" arguments. That it was working class that prevailed! That middle class were smug not to vote.

    Honestly it just illustrates that the ideology is outdated, and Britain and Europe may have slipped back by a 100 years. The Europe of 100 years ago was a far cry from what it is today, and this is because European nations have worked hard to try and build a stable Europe.

    Class-ism, nationalism and patriotism is full of bigotory.

    Furthermore, it exemplary that unification behind any ideals and progress may not at all be possible.
     
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    threenine

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    You could save yourself (and us) a lot of pain by emigrating to the EU, while you have the chance. I hear there are many EU countries that are desperate for new business and you can still trade with the EU.

    A fine display of bigotry! Thank you for bringing the true sentiments to the fore. An absolute perfect example that this had nothing to do with Democracy.

    Now not only are immigrants not welcome, but also now people who are not "British enough" are now no longer welcome!

    On the whole this is my true concern, I really do feel we have pushed the envelope a little too far. The arguments behind the debates are now truly becoming distorted.

    I am no longer concerned about trade agreements and economics, I am totally concerned with democracy becoming totally eroded in this nation
     
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    A fine display of bigotry! Thank you for bringing the true sentiments to the fore. An absolute perfect example that this had nothing to do with Democracy.

    Pot calling kettle ... come in please.

    What bigotry? All the bigotry I have seen comes from the Remainers, ie. all Leavers are thick uneducated racists and extremists over the age of 65. The worst I have said is that I am sick and tired of the doom and gloom merchants trying to run this country down, but I'm sure that coming from a Leaver this will also be seen as bigotry, and all the rest.
     
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    You do not fully understand how this works.

    I was a senior manager in an old fashioned merchant bank before you were born and whilst you seem to know plenty of theory I think that you are sadly lacking in the ways of the world if you think that the wishes of the likes of France and Germany's motor manufacturers will be held up by a veto from Malta or Cyprus
     
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    Scott-Copywriter

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    No it won't take years. We have the WTO to fall back on.

    This is exactly why the public should not have been trusted to make a decision like this.

    We'll re-visit this thread in a few years time and then see how the UK is getting along. I think it's now best to let the outcome speak for itself.

    I will leave you all with this article about a post-referendum Daily Mail piece spelling out exactly how Brexit will effect our lives, and the resulting comments from Mail readers:

    http://indy100.independent.co.uk/ar...ans-and-its-readers-seem-shocked--Z1772TI4aNW

    Simply outstanding.
     
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