Europe should we stay in or get out?

[Jack Burton]

Think Positive! We will be totally out within 2 years - no one wants it to last longer than it has to.

As for immigration, can't say I would necessarily expect it to go down. Or that it needs to go down. It just needs to be controlled so the country can plan for new schools, hospitals, houses etc. And we then have the capacity to actually help those that are really in need of a new place to live.

I think you may be as far down the doom and gloom scale as I am along the positive scale!

Thats it, we have always had and will always have immigration, control is the key. Bring in ID cards I say.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

I cannot think why. He has done the right thing as he knows he would never have public confidence in leading Brexit negotiations.

Osborne should go as well. Directly threatening more than half of voters will not be forgiven.

I've spotted a number of leave supporters who are actually unhappy and even surprised that Cameron has resigned.

I saw one person say "why did he have to go too?".

I think practically it would have been better if he stayed. The last thing we need during this frenzy is the opportunists in every party vying for control by basing their case on how they will handle the negotiations. Other issues will simply be overlooked far more than they should be.

However, politics will ultimately win out.

This is comfortably one of the worst mistakes of any Prime Minister in recent memory. Not because the outcome will potentially be bad, but because Cameron held this referendum never actually expecting it to go this way. He took a gamble and he lost. Big time.

The UK Government will be thinking one thing today: "this wasn't supposed to happen".

 

[MBE1]

Because it's going to be years until we know of the outcome and therefore years before we know what, if any, part of it will be positive.

The negative impact of Brexit is already well-established. The positive outcomes are currently up in the air.

My pessimism is based on 4 simple facts:

1). Economic uncertainty is not a good thing.

2). Trade uncertainty is not a good thing.

3). A giant fall in the Pound is not a good thing.

4). The EU will not make life easy for us because they want to show other members why choosing to leave is not a good idea. Call it vindictive if you want, but that is what will happen. Let's all be honest here folks, there is one way the EU could ensure that no other member dare even thinks of leaving: if the UK ends up on its knees.

The Pound will pick up a little bit, but you just have to look at the overall environment to see why it's going to struggle. It will take years not only to negotiate our exit, but to also negotiate new trade deals with the world. Only the most daring traders and investors will come in during this time to gamble on everything turning out fine. The rest will either short against the Pound or simply steer clear.

One thing for certain is that this will continue until there is a formal agreement - signed, sealed and delivered - on exactly what the UK's post-EU relationship with Europe and the world is going to look like.

Any perceived positives at this stage are also fraught with doubt:

Make our own trade agreements - are they actually going to be any better than they are now, or even equally favourable at all?

Control our own laws - what will the Government now do with workers' rights and our human rights?

Control immigration - how much will it really go down? Will there be an unprecedented surge of migrants entering the UK in the next two years to settle before the door closes? A gradual growth in immigration whilst the economy expands along with it is fine. A giant surge all at the same time when the economy is in a recession is not.

The negatives are already visible for all to see. The positives, meanwhile, are still highly uncertain and come with the distinct possibility that they may turn out to be negatives in many respects as well.

The negative effects are well established after just 12 hours of the vote being made official? Are you trying to sound daft?

The positive outcomes are still in the air, after just 12 hours of the vote being made official, again, are you trying to sound daft?

Economic uncertainty is bad? Not for everyone.

Trade uncertainty is bad? Trade will continue, either cheaper or more expensive, probably a mixture of the two.

A giant fall in the pound is bad? Again, not for all.

The EU will want a quick divorce, but the treaties allow for a two year negotiation, and after a day or two to calm down they will find just like us they would prefer to remain good trade partners.

Our own trade deals better or worse? Give it time, same for workers rights, but why do you believe a GOV would reduce them when at the election the elecorate could then replace them if found to be unfair and wrong?

Will immigration go down? Once we regain full control of the borders, until then EU nationals will probably increase.

As for the citys two favorites, the pound is a self fulfilling prophecy, the banks are making billions today and will keep this going as long as they can, the stock market even after todays falls are higher than the day the EU referendum was announced.

Time for people to stop running the country down and start being a bit more positive IMO, do any of us business people run our businesses with such a negative attitude?

Do you control exchange rates, immigration, legislation etc as a business, or do you simply react and adapt? No person, business or country controls everything, change is always on the cards, and it can be good or bad, down to us as a country to decide which we prefer, because whatever we choose will almost certainly be the correct answer.

 

[ChrisGoodfellow]

Amazing to see the debate's continuing. I've put together an article that highlights some of the most interesting comments from today, let me know what you think - http://www.ukbusinessforums.co.uk/articles/the-ukbf-community-reacts-to-shock-eu-exit.383/

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

You really believe that? You do know that there is a whole world of other countries outside the EU that we can trade with - and set our own, better, agreements with?

Do you know that free trade agreements take, on average, 10 years to complete?

Do you know that China and Switzerland's FTA involved China having open access to Switzerland's market immediately, and then Switzerland only having open access to China's in 15 years time? It's much easier to get a more favourable FTA when you're part of a $16trillion economy compared to one a fraction of the size.

Plus, even most FTAs still include certain tariffs and quotas. The only international trade market to ever be completely free and open in every way is the EU.

There is a whole world to trade with, but trade agreements are not easy. They're very long and arduous processes with both sides trying to fight for the better deal for themselves.

Think Positive! We will be totally out within 2 years - no one wants it to last longer than it has to.

That's just the basic divorce settlement. Building actual trade agreements to take us forward will take decades. Remember that we don't have any FTAs of our own. We've never needed them as we've just used those negotiated by the EU. They will now all be reset to zero, so it's going to be a mammoth effort just to get back to where we were before we left.

Just to give you an idea of what an undertaking this is: the UK Civil Service, alongside actually running the country, now has to go through every single piece of legislation, law and regulation in detail, bit-by-bit, to add, modify and remove accordingly as we unravel ourselves from the EU. Everything. Each and every modification will also have to be approved by Parliament.

The UK Civil Service has 440,000 employees just to run the country, and they're already struggling with that alone due to austerity cuts. They will now have to undertake, without doubt, the largest and most complex legislative shake-up of any country in human history, all whilst the economic downturn cuts into public sector resources even further.

All of these factors mean that it's going to be a long, long, long time before we are truly out and this is all over with.

 

[Deleted member 226268]

Good to see Call-me-Useless resigning, should have thrown himself off the Tower Bridge as a final publicity stunt.

but if THIS dopey jerk takes over Cameron's place, we are going to be in trouble.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/ent...1c1ee4b0232d331dd30d?edition=uk&utm_hp_ref=uk

Why can't we have a vote for who we want as the new Prime Minister ..... Eg. someone with balls and an idea for a positive future direction for
the UK..

 

[Deleted member 59730]

Why should it have any effect on inflation or anything else financial for that matter

but if THIS dopey jerk takes over Cameron's place, we are going to be in trouble.
.

All that fuss of a referendum and all we get is a swap from one old etonian to another.

 

[john1989]

Interesting that the FTSE took an initial hit of 7%. Whereas the DAX took a hit of 8% and CAC 10%.

 

[KM-Tiger]

Why can't we have a vote for who we want as the new Prime Minister ..... Eg. someone with balls and an idea for a positive future direction for
the UK..

In effect we do at a General Election. I think there will be a lot of pressure for GE when the new Tory leader is decided.

 

[john1989]

In effect we do at a General Election. I think there will be a lot of pressure for GE when the new Tory leader is decided.

Labour is in disarray. I think it would be best in the short term if someone within the conservatives can step up and take the bull by the horns.

 

[Newchodge]

Good to see Call-me-Useless resigning, should have thrown himself off the Tower Bridge as a final publicity stunt.

but if THIS dopey jerk takes over Cameron's place, we are going to be in trouble.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/ent...1c1ee4b0232d331dd30d?edition=uk&utm_hp_ref=uk

Why can't we have a vote for who we want as the new Prime Minister ..... Eg. someone with balls and an idea for a positive future direction for
the UK..

Do you have the faintest idea how our democracy works?

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

Why can't we have a vote for who we want as the new Prime Minister ..... Eg. someone with balls and an idea for a positive future direction for
the UK..

Welcome to the restrictions of the UK democratic system which so many people have been fawning over in our quest for public control.

You are given a limited number of realistic options and you are forced to choose one of them.

When Tony Blair resigned, the Labour Party internally elected the unopposed Gordon Brown who then became Prime Minister and formed his own cabinet without a general election for the public ever taking place. The same could happen again this time around.

Free choice? What free choice?

 

[DishonestDave]

Welcome

Do you have an outlook for the UK economy over the next several years?

 

[RedOnion]

Do you know that free trade agreements take, on average, 10 years to complete?

It's much easier to get a more favourable FTA when you're part of a $16trillion economy compared to one a fraction of the size..

Yes. It generally takes 10 years to complete when the EU is involved. Probably in part as they have to get deals that all 27 members are happy with. Surely you can see that a trade deal between just two countries would be a lot easier/quicker?

And when being part of that economy, you only have trade deals with the countries that the EU wants trade deals with.

What about a trade deal with other countries that we want trade deals with but the EU has not yet agreed?

I am presuming, although do not know, that in the two years that we have for exiting the EU we will be building trade agreements with other non-EU countries.

 

[KM-Tiger]

Do you have an outlook for the UK economy over the next several years?

Sorry to jump in but just seen that the FTSE100 has closed up on the week.

And the £ is at the level it was in Feb.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

Do you have an outlook for the UK economy over the next several years?

I think the following will happen:

- Inflation will rise at a rapid rate.

- The Bank of England will have to re-introduce quantitative easing and other methods to stimulate the economy. Today, Mark Carney stated that the BoE is ready to provide more than "£250 billion of additional funds".

- Interest rates will eventually go up to counter inflation and attempt to boost the value of Sterling, despite the unfavourable economic environment for it. This, combined with other factors, will accelerate a rapid housing market crash. There was already a housing bubble teetering on the brink of bursting in the run-up to this referendum.

- The huge resources required to stimulate the economy whilst simultaneously unravelling ourselves from the EU, all whilst public sector income dwindles, will cause a few years of additional austerity and possibly further tax rises. They don't have a choice and this certainly wasn't scaremongering. If Cameron and Osborne are not around to implement this, Boris, Gove & co will be.

- A prolonged recession will occur.

I actually believe that, to a degree, the sudden slump in the Pound and financial markets today is more temporary than anything else. The real danger is in the long-term where the economic impact of Brexit and years of continuing uncertainty start to take their toll.

 

[Newchodge]

Sorry to jump in but just seen that the FTSE100 has closed up on the week.

And the £ is at the level it was in Feb.

Could you give a source for that, please, as everything I can see is showing a completely different picture.

 

[DishonestDave]

Sorry to jump in but just seen that the FTSE100 has closed up on the week.

And the £ is at the level it was in Feb.

I see its Greece, Italy and Spain that have been hammered. ALl about 12-13%.

 

[KM-Tiger]

Could you give a source for that, please, as everything I can see is showing a completely different picture.

https://twitter.com/ReutersJamie/status/746366820899299328

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

Yes. It generally takes 10 years to complete when the EU is involved. Probably in part as they have to get deals that all 27 members are happy with. Surely you can see that a trade deal between just two countries would be a lot easier/quicker?

It usually takes 10 years for an FTA between any two countries. The 10 year figure I'm giving you is actually the lower end. Larger trade deals between trading blocs take longer.

The China-Australia FTA took 10 years, for example:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China–Australia_Free_Trade_Agreement

Let's not also forget that most FTAs are very gradual. Tariff and quota restrictions never happen all at once. After 10+ years of negotiations, it can then take 15-20 years before the effects of the deal are fully maximised. Take the Japan-Thailand FTA:

Thailand will immediately remove the tariffs on half of all Japanese steel imports. The remainder will be duty-free by 2017.

Over the next few years, Thailand will remove the tariffs on Japanese fruits such as apples, pears and yams.

By 2011, Thailand will immediately reduce the tariffs on Japanese automobiles with an engine displacement of 3000 cc or larger to 60 percent from 80 percent. The two countries will hold talks again in 2009 on total tariff elimination for those vehicles in mid-2010s.

By 2012, Japanese auto parts except five will become duty-free. The remaining five will become duty-free in over the next 7 years. Japan will also reduce the tariff on Thai boneless chicken to 8.5 percent down from the current 11.9 percent and on cooked chicken to 3 percent down from 6 percent.

By 2017, approximately 92 percent of tariffs on imports from Thailand to Japan and 97 percent of tariffs on imports from Japan to Thailand will become duty-free.

Not as easy as it seems, is it?

What about a trade deal with other countries that we want trade deals with but the EU has not yet agreed?

In the EU, we benefited from the European single market and 25 existing FTAs globally.

The EU is also part-way through negotiating around 40 more.

As we've left, we'll now lose those 25 existing FTAs, have to start the negotiations with 40 of those provisional FTAs from scratch, and have to strike a deal for continued access to the EU single market as well - almost certainly with terms not as favourable as they are now unless we join the EEA independently.

This is also just to get back to exactly where we were before under EU membership, never mind actually progressing from there.

 

[boring-friday]

Could you give a source for that, please, as everything I can see is showing a completely different picture.

Its easy to see yourself. You called someone a liar whilst lying yourself about 10 pages back btw x

 

[john1989]

Sorry to jump in but just seen that the FTSE100 has closed up on the week.

And the £ is at the level it was in Feb.

FTSE 250 closed down, however.

But looking at historic figures, and economic factors seems to hit the 250 a day or two later.

 

[Newchodge]

https://twitter.com/ReutersJamie/status/746366820899299328

You have got to be joking. A tweet from someone at 8.30 this morning? And that is what you base you analysis of what the pound and the FTSE is worth???? Even afte the vote has been decided Brexiters are still lying.

 

[Newchodge]

Its easy to see yourself. You called someone a liar whilst lying yourself about 10 pages back btw x

Please quote precisely where that happened.

 

[MAWuk]

The thing is how many people were in possession of all the facts, all the negatives about voting leave, in my personal experience not many. Some work colleagues of mine were so uniformed, uneducated on it all that I felt they didn't deserve a bloody vote either way. I fear a lot of people have led us here who didn't bother to go and educate themselves on the severe negatives we may now face for leaving.

 

[john1989]

You have got to be joking. A tweet from someone at 8.30 this morning? And that is what you base you analysis of what the pound and the FTSE is worth???? Even afte the vote has been decided Brexiters are still lying.

Do you not have Google?
FTSE 100 opened up on Monday at 6021.09. It closed today at 6138.69.

 

[Newchodge]

Do you not have Google?
FTSE 100 opened up on Monday at 6021.09. It closed today at 6138.69.

I asked the poster to quote their source. They quoted their source as a twitter message.

 

[KM-Tiger]

A tweet from someone at 8.30 this morning?

It's timed at 4.38 pm today.

I have no objection to being challenged if I make a mistake, but please refrain from calling me a liar without foundation.

 

[john1989]

I asked the poster to quote their source. They quoted their source as a twitter message.

This thread should have should you to check people's sources

 

[Newchodge]

This thread should have should you to check people's sources

Presumably you've had a bit too much sauce?

 

[Newchodge]

It's timed at 4.38 pm today.

I have no objection to being challenged if I make a mistake, but please refrain from calling me a liar without foundation.

Please demonstrate exactly where I called you a liar? I read the source you posted and I described it. It was a twitter message that i read as having been timed at 8.30 this morning. I don't consider that a valid source, but I did not suggest that you lied about it.

 

[john1989]

Presumably you've had a bit too much sauce?

And you've not enough source?

 

[KM-Tiger]

Even afte the vote has been decided Brexiters are still lying.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

Do you not have Google?
FTSE 100 opened up on Monday at 6021.09. It closed today at 6138.69.

And if you calculate the difference in value of the pound is it still good news?

 

[john1989]

And if you calculate the difference in value of the pound is it still good news?

I've done the sums and Geldof will split the difference and buy you a pint.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...AY-EU-one-admits-didn-t-think-vote-count.html

Farage deserves an Oscar for the interview where he denies saying the money going to the EU would go to the NHS.

 

[Ian J]

In the EU, we benefited from the European single market and 25 existing FTAs globally.

The EU is also part-way through negotiating around 40 more.

As we've left, we'll now lose those 25 existing FTAs, have to start the negotiations with 40 of those provisional FTAs from scratch, and have to strike a deal for continued access to the EU single market as well - almost certainly with terms not as favourable as they are now unless we join the EEA independently.

Firstly, we haven't left and secondly you can't compare our situation with that of Norway or Switzerland as we have a much larger economy and we will be helped in our negotiations by the French and Germans being desperate to continue to sell to us

 

[sirearl]

After all, the economy of London alone is larger than the economy of many entire EU countries, and roughly the same size as the likes of Belgium and Sweden.

Well as London has a larger population than either of those countries is one surprised considering what London does.

London contributes 22% of UK GDP ,The rest is in Swiss banks

Afraid you have to be a bit fixated on the economy not to realise that the vote to leave was based on quality of life,London having the lowest in the country.

 

[Ian J]

The thing is how many people were in possession of all the facts, all the negatives about voting leave, in my personal experience not many. Some work colleagues of mine were so uniformed, uneducated on it all that I felt they didn't deserve a bloody vote either way.

Probably about as many people that voted to remain without being in possession of all the facts but voted for the status quo to save the hassle of changing.

 

[Clinton]

And if you calculate the difference in value of the pound is it still good news?

While the charts look dramatic, the pound is currently just two cents lower to the USD than it was earlier in the year. And that's on post referendum day 0. It's way, way above where they predicted it would be.

Once Russian and other money starts flowing into the UK to buy our (now) cheaper assets - land, houses, businesses - that will provide support for sterling. (It's also cheaper now to buy UK residence via Tier 1 which will also attract capital)

And, if you're a technical analyst, there's a positive divergence on Cable's daily chart (USDGBP) which suggests a further rise for GBP over the next few days to take us back up at least a few cents.

Don't sell the farm just yet.