Brexit negotiations

[The Byre]

Have you read the recently published legal advice on the deal?

Add that lot up and you have 'Remain'.

 

[Gecko001]

I see only 30% of a survey want their MP to vote against the deal. I have written to mine to that effect but he seems to be backing the PM. I want a trading deal but I DO NOT want a political deal. Quite frankly I don't care about Ireland having a border - it is not necessary to be so intransigent. The EU political system produces nothing, it is a government without a country that we pay for it to be a parasitic, worthless entity bleeding us of money, nationhood and independence. If we stay in there will come a time when our traditional combatants will have such a tight grip on our testicles that they will squeak loudly.
I read that Churchill said "We are with Europe but not of it. We are linked but not compromised. We are interested and associated but not absorbed. If Britain must choose between Europe and the open sea, she must always choose the open sea"
He did also say "“If, on the other hand, the European trade community were to be permanently restricted to the six nations, the results might be worse than if nothing were done at all – worse for them as well as for us. It would tend not to unite Europe but to divide it – and not only in the economic field.”

It is ALL about politics and international affairs. The EU is interfering with the integrity of the UK. If the EU insisted on having a customs and regulatory border between Kent and Surrey, then maybe you would have a different attitude.

The EU is demanding that there is a customs and regulatory border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. The EU are sticking up for one of their smaller members in the Republic of Ireland. Yet the UK seemingly is not willing to stick up for a part of its own country i.e. Northern Ireland.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

Personally I'm going off this poll of polls, which is the average result of the six most recent polls on the matter: https://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/euref2-poll-of-polls/

None of these polls are any use until we know what the new questions will be. From informal street polls held all over the country the public seem to be about 95% in favour of a 2nd referendum.

 

[Mr D]

The full legal advice is very clear about the backstop. Explanations


It is ALL about politics and international affairs. The EU is interfering with the integrity of the UK. If the EU insisted on having a customs and regulatory border between Kent and Surrey, then maybe you would have a different attitude.

The EU is demanding that there is a customs and regulatory border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. The EU are sticking up for one of their smaller members in the Republic of Ireland. Yet the UK seemingly is not willing to stick up for a part of its own country i.e. Northern Ireland.

Poor NI.
No one wants them....

We've tried to get rid of them a couple of times, Eire has worked to not have them over the years too.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

Add that lot up and you have 'Remain'.

I heard Andrew Adonis say that at a public meeting weeks ago. We all know that Brexit is possible only in the fevered EU hating minds of a few very right wing MPs.

 

[Gecko001]

Poor NI.
No one wants them....

We've tried to get rid of them a couple of times, Eire has worked to not have them over the years too.

When were the couple of times?

 

[Mr D]

When were the couple of times?

1914, 1973.

 

[Mr D]

I heard Andrew Adonis say that at a public meeting weeks ago. We all know that Brexit is possible only in the fevered EU hating minds of a few very right wing MPs.

Bad news I'm afraid, in a few months you can experience this possibility for yourself.
Perhaps 'we all know' as you claim is not quite as well known as you think.

 

[Newchodge]

1914, 1973.

Eire did not exist in 1914.

 

[Gecko001]

1914, 1973.

1973 referendum. Going by your logic, we tried to get rid of Scotland when we held the referendum in 2014.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

Add that lot up and you have 'Remain'.

Indeed.

What surprises me most about ardent leavers being prepared to accept this deal is that it involves an ENORMOUS amount of good faith in the EU, which is something you wouldn't expect the anti-EU people to have much of.

Unlike EU membership itself, where we have the unilateral right to leave, we'll have no such thing if we enter into this backstop arrangement, which is fairly likely at this point. Everything you listed above will come into force, and only the EU can decide when it stops.

This means it's technically possible to hold the UK to ransom, and refuse to "release" the UK from the backstop unless the EU receives the trade agreement it wants. The government is correct when they say there are incentives for the EU not to do that, but legally they can, and there's nothing we could do to stop it.

As far as the situation with NI goes, the terms of the agreement are quite shocking to read, but again, if we are determined to leave the EU, then there doesn't seem to be much alternative if we're to guarantee no return of a hard border. If something else worked, it would be in the agreement instead.

 

[Mr D]

1973 referendum. Going by that logic, we tried to get rid of Scotland when we held the referendum in 2014.

You mean you weren't trying to get rid of Scotland?

 

[Mr D]

Eire did not exist in 1914.

Sorry, have I ever claimed the state existed back then?
You may want to look up the British government ideas on 'Home Rule' as it was known back in the early 20th century. Some foreign war interfered with the process such that the state that would have been created sooner got delayed.

 

[Mr D]

Indeed.

What surprises me most about ardent leavers being prepared to accept this deal is that it involves an ENORMOUS amount of good faith in the EU, which is something you wouldn't expect the anti-EU people to have much of.

Unlike EU membership itself, where we have the unilateral right to leave, we'll have no such thing if we enter into this backstop arrangement, which is fairly likely at this point. Everything you listed above will come into force, and only the EU can decide when it stops.

This means it's technically possible to hold the UK to ransom, and refuse to "release" the UK from the backstop unless the EU receives the trade agreement it wants. The government is correct when they say there are incentives for the EU not to do that, but legally they can, and there's nothing we could do to stop it.

As far as the situation with NI goes, the terms of the agreement are quite shocking to read, but again, if we are determined to leave the EU, then there doesn't seem to be much alternative if we're to guarantee no return of a hard border. If something else worked, it would be in the agreement instead.

And as is common enough in UK politics, kicks some problems down the road for a future government to pick up and try dealing with.

As I think we've discussed, the NI border problem is not something with an easy answer that the locals and the national governments involved will accept.

 

[Newchodge]

As I think we've discussed, the NI border problem is not something with an easy answer that the locals and the national governments involved will accept.

There is a dead simple solution. Cancel Brexit. There is no other solution to allow us to maintain the legally binding GFA. Finding illegal ways round it to comply with an advisory referendum is morally, legally and politically wrong.

 

[Gecko001]

As far as the situation with NI goes, the terms of the agreement are quite shocking to read, but again, if we are determined to leave the EU, then there doesn't seem to be much alternative if we're to guarantee no return of a hard border. If something else worked, it would be in the agreement instead.

There is a dispute over whether something else would work or not. Barnier has argued that customs and regulatory border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK could be carried out by technology without a need for infrastructure. Yet he does not want to consider similar proposals at the border between NI and Republic of Ireland. Remember there is already a VAT, excise tax, corporation tax, income tax and currency border between NI and The Republic of Ireland at present. That all works relatively smoothly at present despite the complexity involved..

 

[Mr D]

There is a dead simple solution. Cancel Brexit. There is no other solution to allow us to maintain the legally binding GFA. Finding illegal ways round it to comply with an advisory referendum is morally, legally and politically wrong.

On that, as on a few other things, we can agree.
Buys us time to have adults sort things out over the course of years.

 

[quikshop]

There is a dead simple solution. Cancel Brexit.

It is oft the call of socialists for whom democracy is an uneasy bedfellow. The people know not what they call for, we know better and must decide for them.

Thankfully the majority of British people disagree with you.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

As I think we've discussed, the NI border problem is not something with an easy answer that the locals and the national governments involved will accept.

I would even question if it has any answer at all.

People assume it does have an answer. That if we just try long enough and think hard enough, then a solution will appear. But will it?

If we're unwaveringly committed to honouring the Good Friday Agreement, with no return of a hard border, but we also wish to protect the constitutional integrity of the UK, then a clean Brexit may simply be impossible to achieve, no matter how hard we try. Even May's Brexit deal falls foul of one of those requirements.

Usually I would blame the referendum question being asked in the first place, but maybe it was intentionally vague enough to factor this problem in. The question didn't specifically ask if the country wanted a clean break because it's undeliverable. But it does leave options open, such as EFTA membership, which would technically deliver the referendum result in a way that's feasible to do.

 

[Newchodge]

I would even question if it has any answer at all.

People assume it does have an answer. That if we just try long enough and think hard enough, then a solution will appear. But will it?

If we're unwaveringly committed to honouring the Good Friday Agreement, with no return of a hard border, but we also wish to protect the constitutional integrity of the UK, then a clean Brexit may simply be impossible to achieve, no matter how hard we try. Even May's Brexit deal falls foul of one of those requirements.

Usually I would blame the referendum question being asked in the first place, but maybe it was intentionally vague enough to factor this problem in. The question didn't specifically ask if the country wanted a clean break because it's undeliverable. But it does leave options open, such as EFTA membership, which would technically deliver the referendum result in a way that's feasible to do.

Sorry Scott, how does EFTA solve he problem?

 

[Mr D]

I would even question if it has any answer at all.

People assume it does have an answer. That if we just try long enough and think hard enough, then a solution will appear. But will it?

If we're unwaveringly committed to honouring the Good Friday Agreement, with no return of a hard border, but we also wish to protect the constitutional integrity of the UK, then a clean Brexit may simply be impossible to achieve, no matter how hard we try. Even May's Brexit deal falls foul of one of those requirements.

Usually I would blame the referendum question being asked in the first place, but maybe it was intentionally vague enough to factor this problem in. The question didn't specifically ask if the country wanted a clean break because it's undeliverable. But it does leave options open, such as EFTA membership, which would technically deliver the referendum result in a way that's feasible to do.

Sometimes there are answers. Just not ones people will accept.

And as you say there can be things where another answer than what we have may not exist. Yet. Or indeed anytime soon.

 

[KM-Tiger]

Add that lot up and you have 'Remain'.

No, it's worse than remain. If we remain there is still an exit route. With May's deal there isn't.

 

[Newchodge]

It is oft the call of socialists for whom democracy is an uneasy bedfellow. The people know not what they call for, we know better and must decide for them.

Thankfully the majority of British people disagree with you.

So 'democracy' requires that we break the law?

 

[quikshop]

So 'democracy' requires that we break the law?

It's a non issue. The technology exists to automate customs arrangements. It's what happens now with full member and treaty countries, most goods custom status are resolved before they even leave the factory.

It is however a conveniently abstract concept to use with the public to confound them and create doubt where there is none.

When you line up the Davos globalists, the countries, multi-nationals and global institutions they control against the plebiscite there is only ever going to be one winner. Add to that a complicit Prime Minister and Chancellor.

 

[Mr D]

It's a non issue. The technology exists to automate customs arrangements. It's what happens now with full member and treaty countries, most goods custom status are resolved before they even leave the factory.

It is however a conveniently abstract concept to use with the public to confound them and create doubt where there is none.

When you line up the Davos globalists, the countries, multi-nationals and global institutions they control against the plebiscite there is only ever going to be one winner. Add to that a complicit Prime Minister and Chancellor.

Do we not as business owners want those in control of a business to … control what it does?
Who controls a country? Who controls a global institution?

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

There is a dispute over whether something else would work or not. Barnier has argued that customs and regulatory border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK could be carried out by technology without a need for infrastructure. Yet he does not want to consider similar proposals at the border between NI and Republic of Ireland. Remember there is already a VAT, excise tax, corporation tax, income tax and currency border between NI and The Republic of Ireland at present. That all works relatively smoothly at present despite the complexity involved..

I understand Barnier's point here. Northern Ireland and Great Britain already have physical infrastructure between them. Goods go through ports. It's a lot easier to rely on technology that way, and also spot check if necessary.

The NI/ROI border, on the other hand, is 300 miles long with 270 open roads. Often the nearest living thing to a border crossing is a cow in a nearby field. It's impossible to know what's going backwards and forwards without some kind of infrastructure that currently isn't there.

Put it this way: There's currently no customs border on Earth that works in the same way we're hoping it will. Even the Norway/Sweden border, with both countries in the Schengen Area, have spot checks, CCTV, ANPR and checkpoints on main routes. And that is arguably the most technologically advanced customs border at present.

In my view, what we're aiming to do is so illogical that the backstop will almost certainly come into force. It's like asking how to run an airport without any aircraft.

 

[quikshop]

Do we not as business owners want those in control of a business to … control what it does?
Who controls a country? Who controls a global institution?

Those with the most money have control, was always thus.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

There is a dead simple solution. Cancel Brexit. There is no other solution to allow us to maintain the legally binding GFA. Finding illegal ways round it to comply with an advisory ILLEGAL referendum is morally, legally and politically wrong.

 

[Gecko001]

I would even question if it has any answer at all.

People assume it does have an answer. That if we just try long enough and think hard enough, then a solution will appear. But will it?

If we're unwaveringly committed to honouring the Good Friday Agreement, with no return of a hard border, but we also wish to protect the constitutional integrity of the UK, then a clean Brexit may simply be impossible to achieve, no matter how hard we try. Even May's Brexit deal falls foul of one of those requirements.

Usually I would blame the referendum question being asked in the first place, but maybe it was intentionally vague enough to factor this problem in. The question didn't specifically ask if the country wanted a clean break because it's undeliverable. But it does leave options open, such as EFTA membership, which would technically deliver the referendum result in a way that's feasible to do.

So we give up and have a duvet day? No it will be worked out. For the last few years it has all been discussions and administrative work. Now the politicians are getting down to the nitty gritty for the first time and are faced with decisions to make. That will get things moving.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

It is oft the call of socialists for whom democracy is an uneasy bedfellow. The people know not what they call for, we know better and must decide for them.

Thankfully the majority of British people disagree with you.

Can you explain why it was that the backers of Brexit are all right wing millionaires and billionaires? Did they believe in democracy or were they just persuading the voters with lies for their own benefit?

 

[Mr D]

Those with the most money have control, was always thus.

That's all right then.

 

[Newchodge]

It's a non issue. The technology exists to automate customs arrangements. It's what happens now with full member and treaty countries, most goods custom status are resolved before they even leave the factory.

How does the EU prevent (for example) illegal products, like chlorinated chicken, entering the EU via Ireland?

 

[Mr D]

How does the EU prevent (for example) illegal products, like chlorinated chicken, entering the EU via Ireland?

Smuggled goods? Same way it deals with other smuggled goods.
If it wasn't smuggled they'd know about it - and presumably there is a limit or ban on the particular product in the EU?

 

[Newchodge]

Smuggled goods? Same way it deals with other smuggled goods.
If it wasn't smuggled they'd know about it - and presumably there is a limit or ban on the particular product in the EU?

If loads of illegal products (smuggled goods) are crossing a particular border the border would be closed. Not possible under the GFA

 

[Cobby]

In my view, what we're aiming to do is so illogical that the backstop will almost certainly come into force. It's like asking how to run an airport without any aircraft.

Observation: Brexiteers arguing against the backstop are implicitly stating their concern that a trade deal cannot be reached by 2022, since that's the only time it would be needed.

 

[Cobby]

Yet the UK seemingly is not willing to stick up for a part of its own country i.e. Northern Ireland.

I think trying to prevent a return of violence and disharmony amongst its people is actually a pretty good goal in "sticking up" for NI. Those who hand-wave away the violence and Troubles as "nothing to worry about" will never understand or care about it anyway, so it's easy for them to dismiss.

No it isn’t. I have worked harder than you can imagine to be in the position I’m in today.

Arguably the worst part of privilege is not being able to recognise when one has it.

 

[Mr D]

If loads of illegal products (smuggled goods) are crossing a particular border the border would be closed. Not possible under the GFA

Yet we don't close our border. Why is that?
Perhaps because we claim not enough smuggled stuff is crossing our border?

I know for certain, from instances I've been involved with, that some goods are smuggled into the UK from elsewhere in the EU.
In no instance did we ever close our borders with the EU.

 

[Cobby]

There's a very good, 50-point summary of our current situation, put together by ex-EU negotiator for the UK, Steve Bullock. It's simple, it sums things up very nicely and cuts through a lot of the waters being muddied by Brexiteers.

https://t.co/p5Xns9u4tr

50 simple chunks of reality to help MPs in these difficult times.
1. The Withdrawal Agreement (WA) is not up for renegotiation
2. The Political Declaration (PD) might be tweaked cosmetically
3. The future relationship will be negotiated during the transition period
4. ...

 

[KM-Tiger]

Yet we don't close our border. Why is that?

Because we need it to be open for business.

HMRC take steps to keep a lid on what is smuggled, eg ClassA drugs, tobacco products. They are not going to say what they do, but one suspects it's all intelligence led, as they cannot stop and search every vehicle and person entering the UK.

Same will be true for ROI/UK border.

 

[Mr D]

Because we need it to be open for business.

HMRC take steps to keep a lid on what is smuggled, eg ClassA drugs, tobacco products. They are not going to say what they do, but one suspects it's all intelligence led, as they cannot stop and search every vehicle and person entering the UK.

Same will be true for ROI/UK border.

I would expect partly intelligence, partly random / targeted.

Obviously not going to take all the tyres off every truck on the off chance all drivers / companies filling them with tobacco or granules.