Brexit negotiations

[Mr D]

Goods bound for the UK but travel via any of the EU 27 countries to get there will probably still have to be checked at the EU frontier.

Take the example of a lorry coming from Turkey on route to the UK after Brexit. It will probably still have to be checked at the border with the EU. Let me explain why I think this. Say if the lorry enters the EU at the Turkish/Greek border. Greek customs might just wave it through when they are informed by the lorry driver that the lorry will be only passing through the EU and that its final destination is the UK. That might work for a while but the unintended consequences for Greece and every country of the EU is that some lorries might be in fact not going to the UK but carrying say fake goods bound for any one of the 27 countries left in the EU.

So rely on other customs departments to do the checking for us?

 

[Deleted member 59730]

With most Greeks wearing £5 raybans and £6 converse trainers I don't think the Greek customs would be bothered about

Having been escorted to Athens airport by a customs official dressed as a Ruritanian general holding me by the arm, I think that Greek customs do not lack efficiency. My mistake was not including a £10 flash on my customs list when coming through Pireus.

 

[The Byre]

Not according to the medicines regulator https://www.pharmaceutical-journal....s-mhra-chief/20205240.article?firstPass=false

Possibly the most important posting within this entire 155-page thread. Everybody needs to read and then reread that article and then bear in mind that the problems the medical industries face are repeated for EVERY industry we have.

Some industries, such as TV and film could possibly get by with interruptions in supply, but food and medicine needs a constant and uninterrupted supply chain of key inputs. Some people will die if they cannot use something as simple and cheap as a catheter, other will die if they cannot access hypodermic needles or pacemakers.

Britain manufactures almost nothing. Even CDs and DVDs are today make in France or Poland, mastering those DVDs is usually done in the US or Germany. Rinse and repeat for almost every aspect of our lives. Manufacturing fell to just 25% of GDP after the War. Today, it is at 10% and continues to fall steadily.

We can only reverse this trend by international integration of manufacture and supply. No car is fully manufactured in any one country, it takes production plants across the Globe to make even the most British of cars such as a Morgan or a TVR.

Here's a thought - nearly every user of copper wire in bulk requires 'just-in-time' supplies. All copper wire used in the UK comes from either Pirelli in Berlin or Alcatel/Nokia in France.

 

[JEREMY HAWKE]

Having been escorted to Athens airport by a customs official dressed as a Ruritanian general holding me by the arm, I think that Greek customs do not lack efficiency. My mistake was not including a £10 flash on my customs list when coming through Pireus.

Have been to the shops ! ? The islands are the capital of fake goods and they will be here if custom checks are not done . At the moment they wont ship them through the EU

 

[Gecko001]

Possibly the most important posting within this entire 155-page thread. Everybody needs to read and then reread that article and then bear in mind that the problems the medical industries face are repeated for EVERY industry we have.

Some industries, such as TV and film could possibly get by with interruptions in supply, but food and medicine needs a constant and uninterrupted supply chain of key inputs. Some people will die if they cannot use something as simple and cheap as a catheter, other will die if they cannot access hypodermic needles or pacemakers.

Britain manufactures almost nothing. Even CDs and DVDs are today make in France or Poland, mastering those DVDs is usually done in the US or Germany. Rinse and repeat for almost every aspect of our lives. Manufacturing fell to just 25% of GDP after the War. Today, it is at 10% and continues to fall steadily.

We can only reverse this trend by international integration of manufacture and supply. No car is fully manufactured in any one country, it takes production plants across the Globe to make even the most British of cars such as a Morgan or a TVR.

Here's a thought - nearly every user of copper wire in bulk requires 'just-in-time' supplies. All copper wire used in the UK comes from either Pirelli in Berlin or Alcatel/Nokia in France.

I take your point about general manufactured goods, but do you really think that consignments of life-saving drugs, bought and paid for, will be refused to be dispatched to the UK from the continent? And if they are dispatched, do you really think that customs officials on either side will not give them priority and get them through the ports and airports as soon as possible?

BTW for the benefit of posters who have not been in at the start of this thread, I voted to remain, but I accept the result of the vote. My side lost.

 

[Cobby]

I take your point about general manufactured goods, but do you really think that consignments of life-saving drugs, bought and paid for, will be refused to be dispatched to the UK from the continent? And if they are dispatched, do you really think that customs officials on either side will not give them priority and get them through the ports and airports as soon as possible?

Do you really think it's that easy? The issues of infrastructure; potential counterfeiting; the WTO Most Favoured Nation issues? Probably more.

The Brexiter's idea of "surely we'd do what's best?" has already been answered by the fact people are still trying to carry it out at all: "surely" no longer has any value.

BTW for the benefit of posters who have not been in at the start of this thread, I voted to remain, but I accept the result of the vote. My side lost.

I also voted Remain but since the Leave campaign is now known to have been breaking the law and that the referendum campaigning was interfered with by a hostile foreign power, the result has no legitimacy, and even if I looked past all of that and ignored the threat to our democracy, that still doesn't preclude campaigning against Brexit now we have more information about what it involves and how it confers nothing but harm upon our country.

 

[Mr D]

Possibly the most important posting within this entire 155-page thread. Everybody needs to read and then reread that article and then bear in mind that the problems the medical industries face are repeated for EVERY industry we have.

Some industries, such as TV and film could possibly get by with interruptions in supply, but food and medicine needs a constant and uninterrupted supply chain of key inputs. Some people will die if they cannot use something as simple and cheap as a catheter, other will die if they cannot access hypodermic needles or pacemakers.

Britain manufactures almost nothing. Even CDs and DVDs are today make in France or Poland, mastering those DVDs is usually done in the US or Germany. Rinse and repeat for almost every aspect of our lives. Manufacturing fell to just 25% of GDP after the War. Today, it is at 10% and continues to fall steadily.

We can only reverse this trend by international integration of manufacture and supply. No car is fully manufactured in any one country, it takes production plants across the Globe to make even the most British of cars such as a Morgan or a TVR.

Here's a thought - nearly every user of copper wire in bulk requires 'just-in-time' supplies. All copper wire used in the UK comes from either Pirelli in Berlin or Alcatel/Nokia in France.

Britain manufactures almost nothing?



8th largest manufacturing nation in the world.
So if we produce almost nothing to the value of £185 billion a year, how much do those lower in the ranking than us produce?

http://www.cityam.com/272260/british-manufacturing-now-eighth-largest-world

Manufacturing being smaller percentage than after the war is a good thing, don't need so much labour to produce goods. Other aspects of the economy increased too.

 

[Mr D]

I take your point about general manufactured goods, but do you really think that consignments of life-saving drugs, bought and paid for, will be refused to be dispatched to the UK from the continent? And if they are dispatched, do you really think that customs officials on either side will not give them priority and get them through the ports and airports as soon as possible?

BTW for the benefit of posters who have not been in at the start of this thread, I voted to remain, but I accept the result of the vote. My side lost.

Great, give medicines a priority. Now get them for 18 miles back in a bumper to bumper queue to the front to be quickly checked by customs then on to destination.
Or from the ship parked up a half mile offshore to the port unloading facility and container halfway down the hold out in order to get the medicine out.

Logistics is good but cannot guarantee the immediately required stuff is at the right place when the delays are caused by our side of things.

 

[Newchodge]

I take your point about general manufactured goods, but do you really think that consignments of life-saving drugs, bought and paid for, will be refused to be dispatched to the UK from the continent? And if they are dispatched, do you really think that customs officials on either side will not give them priority and get them through the ports and airports as soon as possible?

BTW for the benefit of posters who have not been in at the start of this thread, I voted to remain, but I accept the result of the vote. My side lost.

How do you think that can happen? We are not talking about 1 or 2 packages of medication that are urgently needed for a specific case, which could be couriered through with full cooperation from everyone involved. We're talking about everyday consignments of standard products. Drugs manufacturers are notoriously not altruistic they run businesses the same as everyone else. If they can make better and easier profit by concentrating on non-UK customers they will do just that. If we have insufficient customs infrastructure there will be backlogs. Who is to say that a medicine consignment is more important than a consignment of fresh food that will go off if the delay is too long. How, even, would you physically separate the 'important consignments from the less important, a process which of itself would increase overall delay.

 

[simon field]

Britain manufactures almost nothing?

Yeah I thought that was a strange comment too...

Even higher than 8th by some measures. Out of nearly 200 countries.

And look how small we are!

 

[Gecko001]

Who is to say that a medicine consignment is more important than a consignment of fresh food that will go off if the delay is too long. How, even, would you physically separate the 'important consignments from the less important, a process which of itself would increase overall delay.

Governments can do that. They have the power you know.

 

[Mr D]

Well er government can do that one. They have the power you know.

The shifting of high priority items to front of queue is a common enough tactic for urgent stuff. The knock on effect is to delay other stuff.
How long before a company is missing a particular part stuck in the queue and delayed due to a percentage of the incoming stuff being fast tracked from the queue past where the part is?

Priority stuff may start with this medicine and that fresh food, how long before the list of priority expands? Someone whispers in the minister's ear that xxx company needs its delivery of a part urgently and the minister tells his staff to add that container to the priority list.
Give it a few days and the list increases considerably each day. With non priority stuff delayed more and more by the time and effort spent getting the priority list stuff through.

 

[Gecko001]

The shifting of high priority items to front of queue is a common enough tactic for urgent stuff. The knock on effect is to delay other stuff.
How long before a company is missing a particular part stuck in the queue and delayed due to a percentage of the incoming stuff being fast tracked from the queue past where the part is?

Priority stuff may start with this medicine and that fresh food, how long before the list of priority expands? Someone whispers in the minister's ear that xxx company needs its delivery of a part urgently and the minister tells his staff to add that container to the priority list.
Give it a few days and the list increases considerably each day. With non priority stuff delayed more and more by the time and effort spent getting the priority list stuff through.

I take your point. That is why we need to get this sorted out at the Brexit negotiations. I have to assume that all this stuff has been worked on by civil servants and negotiators behind the scenes and if this particular government is put out of office before Brexit happens then the next government will continue to negotiate on these matters and civil servants will still do their job in getting to grips with all the details.

 

[Mr D]

I take your point. That is why we need to get this sorted out at the Brexit negotiations. I have to assume that all this stuff has been worked on by civil servants and negotiators behind the scenes and if this particular government is put out of office before Brexit happens then the next government will continue to negotiate on these matters and civil servants will still do their job in getting to grips with all the details.

You can assume. You'd hope there are adults in the room who can see 1st order and 2nd order effects.
Civil servants are human. They may not listen or they may not be able to make their superiors understand the issue.

And we are betting a lot on the right number coming up. Russian roulette for a few people.

 

[Newchodge]

I have to assume that all this stuff has been worked on

I would like to believe so, but I think that it has been put on the too difficult pile and the government is relying on its mantra that we will get a good deal.

 

[Jeff FV]

This is my big fear.

All we ever hear is “Brexit mans Brexit”, but what does that mean? Nothing.

With now seven months to the end of March, we need to be all over the plan, not the platitudes. We need to see the details of how things will work.

I’m sure that, if we do crash out with no deal, then, perhaps by this time next year, things will have been worked out and systems put in place to “make everything work”. But I suspect for the first few days, weeks (months?) there could be chaos and carnage at the border.

This has been, to my mind, the single biggest failing of Brexiteers- a lack of willingness to come up with a coherent plan. They won the battle (the referendum) but are losing the war. They needed a hearts and minds campaign to convince the half of the country that didn’t support their view that everything will be OK by delivering a rational a cogent plan, however it’s all been based on belief and blind faith, and many of us aren’t buying that.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

BTW for the benefit of posters who have not been in at the start of this thread, I voted to remain, but I accept the result of the vote. My side lost.

I'm glad you think of it as a football match; two sides against each other with a winner and a loser. Actually leaving the EU we all lose.

 

[Gecko001]

I would like to believe so, but I think that it has been put on the too difficult pile and the government is relying on its mantra that we will get a good deal.

I know what you mean by mantras. Repeat things that cannot be considered a bad thing when there is nothing else that can be said or when the answers have not been found or there are no new policies to announce.

However, I see this sort of phoney stage of the negotiations going on for some time yet until there is some sign of movement from the EU negotiators. I would not hold my breath that that will happen any time soon. One Netherlands official let the cat out of the bag a few weeks ago about how they were hiring nearly a 1000 extra customs officials to cope with Brexit, but I would not depend on this breaking of the ranks so to speak happening too often in the future.

 

[Gecko001]

I'm glad you think of it as a football match; two sides against each other with a winner and a loser. Actually leaving the EU we all lose.

Elections and referendums have always had winners and losers. It is a pity Mr Cameron did not realise that before he decided to have the referendum in the first place. Your sport analogy does . It help develop virtues such as being magnanimous in defeat.

Although I voted to remain, it was because I thought of myself as a European. I have visited the continent many many times both in connection with my work and on holiday. I have even resided and worked there for a few months. I also saw the EU as being successful in helping to provide peace in Europe when the 50 or so years. Before the European project was begun had seen two World Wars start in Europe. In saying that I have always thought of EU as being inherently undemocratic and elitist. Wishing that the vote was something else or trying to ignore the vote and stay in, I would see as totally undemocratic.

 

[Cobby]

Drugs manufacturers are notoriously not altruistic they run businesses the same as everyone else. If they can make better and easier profit by concentrating on non-UK customers they will do just that.

Interesting point.

Do you think also they'll leverage our weak position post-Brexit to hike costs for us? I hadn't thought of that...

 

[Cobby]

I take your point. That is why we need to get this sorted out at the Brexit negotiations. I have to assume that all this stuff has been worked on by civil servants and negotiators behind the scenes.

The civil service, from all accounts, seems to be working extremely hard and diligently (despite the vitriol and insults about them from the likes of Rees-Mogg, etc.), but the government are so intent on appeasing the far-right and the Daily Mail that they keep drawing red lines the civil service cannot overcome. They are trying so hard to appear strong (and perhaps in the eyes of the uninformed they do) but to all other parties involved they appear like stubborn children.

 

[Cobby]

Wishing that the vote was something else or trying to ignore the vote and stay in, I would see as totally undemocratic.

This "undemocratic" thing is the last refuge argument for the whole spectrum of Brexiteers (and some Remainers) at the moment, and I find it a complete non-sequitur.

Since you're a self-declared Remainer, would you mind elaborating as to how you reach that conclusion given the facts currently at hand? I'd genuinely like to know.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...cess-to-uk-bank-accounts-under-no-deal-brexit

Project fear is now coming from the government! Looks like its time to move my money into an offshore bank account.

 

[The Byre]

Wishing that the vote was something else or trying to ignore the vote and stay in, I would see as totally undemocratic.

Hitler was the democratic choice of the German people!

Not that it matters, as it ain't gonna happen!

 

[Cobby]

It's so weird that pro-Brexiters are now defining democracy as, "people must not be allowed to change their minds".

 

[Jasondb]

No, I think they are just asking the government to honour the referendum to take us out.

Once out if after a certain period, suggest 5 years and people now think it isn't working they can vote for another referendum to take us back in and adopt the Euro if that is what they want.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

No, I think they are just asking the government to honour the referendum to take us out.

Honour a dishonourable referendum?

The Leave side cheated over expenses.
The Leave side told massive lies.
The Electoral Commission was asleep at the wheel or was it somehow deliberate that UK citizens who were most likely to vote remain were excluded and Commonwealth students who were most likely to vote leave were included.
The whole exercise was to placate just 58 troublemakers in the Tory party.

 

[Mr D]

No, I think they are just asking the government to honour the referendum to take us out.

Once out if after a certain period, suggest 5 years and people now think it isn't working they can vote for another referendum to take us back in and adopt the Euro if that is what they want.

And how many years after applying to join would it take us to actually join? Can imagine some governments being unwilling to have us back even if we end up with one government willing to join. Next government could pull us out again.

 

[KM-Tiger]

The whole exercise was to placate just 58 troublemakers in the Tory party.

Err, not the millions that voted UKIP in 2015 GE or the EU parliamentary elections?

BTW: I gather that EU Structural Funding for Cornwall is mentioned in the govt 'no-deal' papers, and more importantly that the Treasury will maintain it. Good news down there I hope.

 

[Mr D]

Honour a dishonourable referendum?

The Leave side cheated over expenses.
The Leave side told massive lies.
The Electoral Commission was asleep at the wheel or was it somehow deliberate that UK citizens who were most likely to vote remain were excluded and Commonwealth students who were most likely to vote leave were included.
The whole exercise was to placate just 58 troublemakers in the Tory party.

So get the referendum result overturned in court.
Unless it really wasn't dishonourable and its your sour grapes. Usual blowing up out of all proportion?

 

[Mr D]

Err, not the millions that voted UKIP in 2015 GE or the EU parliamentary elections?

BTW: I gather that EU Structural Funding for Cornwall is mentioned in the govt 'no-deal' papers, and more importantly that the Treasury will maintain it. Good news down there I hope.

Indeed, 4 million voted UKIP plus more than once a referendum on the EU was promised in a GE by a party that won. Do we expect GE promises to be kept or do we expect them to be ignored?

The treasury keeping Cornwall funding for now? What happens when they decide to stop?

I'd take the 'no deal' papers as what they are. A bunch of things agreed by a group of people in a room at a certain time. Truthful, correct, likely, will happen, these words don't strictly apply. Propaganda is closer. Test the claims against reality as it is now.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

Err, not the millions that voted UKIP in 2015 GE or the EU parliamentary elections?

BTW: I gather that EU Structural Funding for Cornwall is mentioned in the govt 'no-deal' papers, and more importantly that the Treasury will maintain it. Good news down there I hope.

David Cameron only ever promised a referendum because he thought it would deal with Redwood, Cash, Mogg etc in his own party.

Do you have a link about the EU Structural Funding for Cornwall. The only thing I can find is its expiry in 2020.

 

[KM-Tiger]

Do you have a link about the EU Structural Funding for Cornwall. The only thing I can find is its expiry in 2020.

Sadly I don't. I read it in a newspaper today, so that would have been the Times or Mail, cannot remember which one.

But Cornwall was specifically mentioned, which made me think of you.

 

[Cobby]

No, I think they are just asking the government to honour the referendum to take us out.

They've never stopped demanding that, even after it was found that the Leave campaign broke the law and rendered the result unsound.

But they're now literally trying to redefine democracy as "the people must not be allowed to change their minds".

 

[Cobby]

BTW: I gather that EU Structural Funding for Cornwall is mentioned in the govt 'no-deal' papers, and more importantly that the Treasury will maintain it. Good news down there I hope.

It's easy for them to say they'll maintain it but even if they aren't straight up lying (which is extremely likely given their current record) ,with a massively reduced economy such infrastructure funds will simply vanish.

 

[Cobby]

Err, not the millions that voted UKIP in 2015 GE

No, else the government would have pursued Proportional Representation to give them a voice.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

Sadly I don't. I read it in a newspaper today, so that would have been the Times or Mail, cannot remember which one.

But Cornwall was specifically mentioned, which made me think of you.

The Times or the Mail? Not particularly reliable sources then.

Cornwall has funding history going way back. Our health services were breaking even a few years ago but faced £2million of extra costs from holiday makers. This was re-imbursed to Cornwall but TWO years later. That meant that Cornwall was always in the red by at least £4million and was punished accordingly.

Roads are a joke. The A30 in Devon had a roundabout. There never was a problem or any holdups and yet they got millions years ago to build a flyover. The A30 in Cornwall at a place called Chiverton roundabout has had serious tailbacks and accidents for years. It is a serious congestion point and has only just got the go-ahead to build a flyover.

Just about everything in Cornwall gets less funding than the rest of the country.

 

[Mr D]

No, else the government would have pursued Proportional Representation to give them a voice.

Except last time the government had a referendum on changing the voting method the voters rejected the idea. Only a few years back you may have forgotten it. What makes you think the voters just a few years later would want PR?

 

[Cobby]

Except last time the government had a referendum on changing the voting method the voters rejected the idea. Only a few years back you may have forgotten it. What makes you think the voters just a few years later would want PR?

Nice strawman but:

1. AV+ is not PR
2. The establishment doesn't *want* PR because it provides stronger democratic controls against abuse of their power. FPTP upholds a weakly democratic 2-party system that is a strong brake against progressivism and maintains the networks of privilege and cronyism.

 

[Mr D]

Nice strawman but:

1. AV+ is not PR
2. The establishment doesn't *want* PR because it provides stronger democratic controls against abuse of their power. FPTP upholds a weakly democratic 2-party system that is a strong brake against progressivism and maintains the networks of privilege and cronyism.

Never claimed AV was PR. Another strawman of yours?

People chose not to have a new system, perhaps they are happy with the system that already exists. Has anyone asked them rather than decided the reasons why they chose as they did?



FPTP appears to be very bad in this country at upholding a 2 party system. Just off the top of my head I can think of several parties who have won seats in the last general election. Never mind previous elections where other parties have ended up governing.
3 different parties have been in power in past hundred and twenty years.

Take it up with the voters for voting for other parties rather than the one you consider the right one. Or campaign for change, maybe a 6th opportunity to change the system to something else will happen in a generation.