Brexit negotiations

@The Byre , the low pound is a good thing overall. Gosh, how many times do I have to say this?
Just keep saying it until, one day, in some alternative reality, it becomes true. That will be the same day that little tweety-birds come flying out of my butt!

Pick a stable currency - Singapore Dollar, Swiss Franc, Norwegian Krone and now look at their standards of living. Tell you anything?

US standard of living 100% (benchmark)
Singapore 150%
Switzerland 107%
Norway 124%
UK 74%

The UK more or less imports everything, cars, food, white and brown goods, pretty much all imported. When the pound sinks, the material standards of living for those living in the UK falls.

There was a debate earlier about the UK car industry - it employs 150,000 and produced a record 1.8m cars and trucks last year, making it one of the smaller producers in Europe, well behind France, Spain and Italy and well behind the giant Germany. More worrying, is the fact that just a handful of foreign companies account for all that production and with the possible exception of Jaguar-Landrover, could switch production to any one of their other plants across Europe and beyond.

Manufacturing today is a totally international activity. All the kitchen equipment in our house was built in Spain, the car I drive was built in Germany, but could have been built in any one of eight other factories building the same car in S.Africa, Mexico, Brazil, China, India, Russia, Roumania and the USA.

Aside from Britain's ability to excel at high-value goods, such as F1 racing, audio equipment and luxury cars, the reason the UK economy remains afloat is the massive exports of services. The UK is the World's second largest exporter of services after the US.

And it's not all banking and insurance (important as they are) but includes film production, architecture, legal services, music licensing, gaming, HR services, security, TV programme formats, health and hygiene, education, management systems, communications, the list seems almost endless! The UK runs a massive trade surplus in services - and does so with the EU in particular.

Just banking and insurance had a £20bn surplus with the EU last year!

Altogether, the UK exports about $600bn and imports $500bn in 'invisibles' each year and almost half of that $100bn surplus is with the EU. Any deal struck with Brussels will have to protect that cash cow at all costs.
 
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Germany keeps coming up as the greatest place in the world to live but is there any downside to living there, do you ever think how rich the country could be if it was not propping up half of Europe or slowly loosing its identity with mass imigration
I lived there for 27 years - and it sucks!

Crime is rampant, gangs of disaffected youths of all types roam the streets, ghettos for various nationalities and religions are now the norm, youth unemployment is sky-high and to top it all, taxes are absurd.

It costs (hold onto your hats folks!) five Euros to put two Euros into an employee's pocket.

Yes, you did read that correctly! To give some poor sap just €20,000 trouser money, it now costs his or her employer a staggering €50,000.

If I then add to that figure, the total costs of employing someone (canteen, parking space, lavatories, holiday and Christmas bonuses, insurance, H&S inspections, pension funds, illness funds, education courses and I'm sure I've missed a few things!) then you are looking down the barrel of €100,000 that a place of employment must generate in additional profit, just to break even.

Unless you are at least middle management with security of tenure, a civil servant, a drug dealer, or the owner of an illegal still, making fake gin and ouzo, to be sold at the local Turkish corner shop, life for the average German, especially the young, has become a struggle.
 
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Chris Ashdown

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    What is patriotic ig being ruled by another country?

    We actually are a small and probably insignificant country, just like Denmark, Norway, Holland, Germany and so on, we have some grandiose idea's from the past which leaves us with a seat on some international organisations but that's it, we need to just get on with our own life and leave history as something we should remember but not toll over. greatness is judged by the deed not the word
     
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    Cobby

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    What is patriotic ig being ruled by another country?
    Again with the overly flogged dead horses; the fact that we could have, at any point the government deemed necessary, left the EU, shows that we aren't 'ruled' by another country. We didn't leave and instead chose to be a member and adhere to certain rules in return for the benefits of membership.

    It's very helpful to a nationalist narrative to call it foreign rule, but it's not.

    We actually are a small and probably insignificant country, just like Denmark, Norway, Holland, Germany and so on, we have some grandiose idea's from the past which leaves us with a seat on some international organisations but that's it, we need to just get on with our own life and leave history as something we should remember but not toll over. greatness is judged by the deed not the word
    See, you're going to have to do a lot more to put across the appeal of giving up our standing in the wider world, where we have influence and a say in things, and opportunities for our people and our children. For what? All to go back to being an insignificant country with closed borders and a hateful mindset which will inevitably become more and more resentful of the rest of the world as we experience a slow decline and a fall in living standards.
    Why give up the present and our place in a progressive and modern world to go back to a regressive past where we'll be less than we've ever been before?
     
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    That's not the impression we get from many of your posts, old friend
    It is probably the best governed country in Europe and has enjoyed extremely stable and competent leadership from people like Adenauer, Schmidt, Brandt, Kohl and now Merkel. Anything less than statesmen-like geniuses would have been catastrophic and possibly lead to war.

    Imagine what would have happened to Britain, if Wilson or Thatcher had to deal with 1m refugees in just a few short months, or 6m Turks. Imagine Atlee trying to cope with a nation where people are starving to death and almost nothing is left of the infrastructure and most cities are rubble. How does one rebuild a nation made up mostly of women, children, cripples and old men?

    Germany and the German people are under enormous pressure. Everybody and their mothers-in-law wants to live there and get a state hand-out, a state home, state benefits and education, with additional money for a TV set, a bicycle and clothing.

    Not that long ago, West Germany literally 'bought' East Germany - a country of 17m that was completely and utterly bankrupt. The first 20 years of reunification cost West Germans two trillion Euros and every West German taxpayer had to pay a sizeable 'Solidarity Tax'.
     
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    MBE2017

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    It's not unreasonable to expect that a decision, which will cause extreme economic and sociological damage both in the short and long term, only be taken if a clear and significant majority of the populace desires it. Even then it would still be counter to the duties of our elected representatives but executing that decision would then be a much more reasonable expectation.

    It's even more reasonable for the politicians to carry out the result of a referendum where a large portion of the country voted. The difference in percentages for and against whilst close were a definite decision, each persons vote carries the same weight as anyone else's.

    Just because you have said this will cause short and long term damage does not mean you are correct, I believe the UK can do well on it's own, we will be able to change and adapt according to our own requirements, not what is best for Germany/France.
     
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    Mr D

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    It's even more reasonable for the politicians to carry out the result of a referendum where a large portion of the country voted. The difference in percentages for and against whilst close were a definite decision, each persons vote carries the same weight as anyone else's.

    Just because you have said this will cause short and long term damage does not mean you are correct, I believe the UK can do well on it's own, we will be able to change and adapt according to our own requirements, not what is best for Germany/France.

    Just so long as we get any other party to an agreement to agree with us.
    We can look out for our own requirements but the other side look out for their own requirements. In the meantime no need to worry about rising prices or job losses.
     
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    D

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    Tell that to the mainland Europeans that relied heavily on tourism. The Euro decimated a lot of tourist destinations.

    Some destinations have not recovered, and some are only just recovering and this is only because of events in countries such as Egypt and Tunisia.
    Tourist destinations go in and out of fashion. Its the industry and jobs in the weaker economies which have to struggle but I don't hear calls for Italy or Spain to leave the EU.
     
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    D

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    Not that long ago, West Germany literally 'bought' East Germany - a country of 17m that was completely and utterly bankrupt. The first 20 years of reunification cost West Germans two trillion Euros and every West German taxpayer had to pay a sizeable 'Solidarity Tax'.
    You forget the very high interest rates which we had to pay so that Germany could suck in all that money. While we didn't pay a tax as such our industries couldn't afford to invest to improve which has had a long term effect.
     
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    Cobby

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    It's even more reasonable for the politicians to carry out the result of a referendum where a large portion of the country voted. The difference in percentages for and against whilst close were a definite decision, each persons vote carries the same weight as anyone else's.
    It's all about the flogging of dead horses today. No, it's not reasonable; the charge of our elected representatives is to act on our behalf in the best interests of the country. This is very clearly not in the best interests of the country.

    I'm not dismissing anyone's vote as worth less than anyone else's (regardless of my opinions of those people) but we do not have a direct democracy (we barely have a functioning representative democracy) so it is not reasonable to take such incredible action without an overwhelming majority of support as, unlike ideological legislation on schools or health or welfare, this is not action that can be undone.

    Just because you have said this will cause short and long term damage does not mean you are correct, I believe the UK can do well on it's own, we will be able to change and adapt according to our own requirements, not what is best for Germany/France.
    I'm sure you believe that, but that is not what the evidence or common sense suggests.
     
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    D

    Deleted member 59730

    the low pound is a good thing overall. Gosh, how many times do I have to say this?
    Doesn't matter how often you say it. It aint true.

    A controlled value of a currency is a good thing but this is not controlled and not needed. Currency value should only change to benefit the people and the economy. This devaluation does neither. According to your source, the ONS, over 2,500 products have reduced their size to mask the effects of inflation. People are paying more for less. The average family holiday in Europe is costing an extra £1,000. That is a lot more than the official inflation figure.
    Its not as if this drop is helping the economy. We have gone from being the best performing economy in the G20 to the worst in just one year.
    In the meantime hundreds of thousands of pensioners and investors living abroad are suffering real hardship.
     
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    D

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    More worrying, is the fact that just a handful of foreign companies account for all that production and with the possible exception of Jaguar-Landrover, could switch production to any one of their other plants across Europe and beyond.
    And that is ignoring the EU wide trade we have in parts. Pieces go backwards and forwards across borders for finishing. A switch made in England could go to Italy to have a plastic moulded cover fixed then to Spain for wires to be attached shipped back to the UK to attach the relays and finally sold to a car maker in Germany.

    (I wonder how much a German made Aston Martin engine has increased in price by?)
     
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    Bosch employs 390,000 people in 27 countries, with €74bn revenue, of which €44bn is automotive technology, ranging from complete cable trees from Roumania, to sat-navs from China and ABS, traction control and ESP from Spain.

    History is on the side of international trade and membership of global trading blocs.
     
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    That's the problem - we don't know.

    The negotiating team do not even know what sort of outcome they are supposed to work towards. If you run a company with interests across the EU, the situation is quite simply maddening.

    What do I do? Our investment cycle is c.a. 10 years. Where will we be in 2027? In? Out? Half in? Tariffs imposed? No tariffs?

    If some f*ckwit from the government was just to make things clear, even if that is to say "We are leave the EU with nothing in place and no trading bloc to open its arms to us!" at least I would know that out UK business is doomed and I can sell-up and find a pathway to the future.

    But these idiots are still warring with themselves, so how the hell they are supposed to negotiate with Brussels remains a clouded mystery!

    At the moment, I have to assume (rather like BMW, Nissan, Toyota and Honda) that this lot and their potential replacement are so grossly incompetent, that there just will be no Brexit and the whole enterprise will look nothing like @Clinton's sunny uplands of a Brave New Future, but that our futures are based on the pish-up-in-a-brewery principle!

    Britain has had some extremely incompetent fools running the country - Wilson, Callahan, Heath Thatcher, Blair, Major, Cameron and Atlee (did I miss anybody?) spring to mind, but this crowd absolutely take the pigeon! We have never seen anything as hopeless!
     
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    Clinton

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    I'm currently on holiday, sorry. But I'll try to chip in now and again.

    @The Byre and @atmosbob are not convinced that devaluation of GBP is a good thing.

    Just keep saying it until, one day, in some alternative reality, it becomes true. That will be the same day that little tweety-birds come flying out of my butt!

    Doesn't matter how often you say it. It aint true.

    Just a FYI: We have been in a currency war since 2009. Japan and Europe are particularly keen on devaluing their currency. This is very different to the currency wars of the 1930 but it's a war nonetheless, just a more stealthy one (while playing the game of publicly denying any devaluation "intent" ...so as not to upset trading partner countries).

    The ECB said, way back in 2013, that they will take more overt steps to devalue the Euro. They subsequently started a Euro 60 billion per month QE program to lower the value of the euro. They were hoping against hope to make the Euro cheaper. They try their best to talk the euro down in their press conferences. All to no avail.

    Today EURUSD hit the highest price it has seen in over two years.

    The pound did well after the referedum but is unfortunately now rising again and has recovered more than half the value it lost against the dollar. Surely you are cheering this rise in the pound, The Byre and atmosbob? Or is a rise in the pound as bad for us as a drop in the pound? ;)

    Is all good news simply bad news that hasn't been explained properly yet?
     
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    MBE2017

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    It's all about the flogging of dead horses today. No, it's not reasonable; the charge of our elected representatives is to act on our behalf in the best interests of the country. This is very clearly not in the best interests of the country.

    We will have to disagree, the referendum was offered as a chance for a democratic vote, I think the UK has everything to lose in ignoring the outcome. Once the idea that democracy has been lost, no-one knows where we will end up, the mother of all parliaments might as well close for good. The back lash might surprise many, I for one would never wish to vote again, why bother? So what then will replace the ballot box? This country, one of the most stable in the world is on the brink of throwing 500 odd years of parliament away. Anyone seriously arguing against the referendum being carried through have to consider if they believe in democracy.

    I'm sure you believe that, but that is not what the evidence or common sense suggests.

    Once again, just saying something does not make it correct. If the experts were to be believed, not joining the Euro would have decimated the UK, it did not, voting for Brexit the same, it did not, the various financial experts predicting economic downturns, the opposite happened. As business owners we face similar doom and gloom from other people all the time, telling us why things will never work, yet still business thrives for most. There is nothing we cannot do if we decide to do it, time to find our backbone rather than sobbing crocodile tears.

    The main thing anyone should see from the actual real world evidence is the experts get things wrong more often than correct. Imagine how things might be if people began to get behind Brexit, back the negotiations in the national interest, instead of the bunch of idiots looking to use Brexit for their own reasons.

    The reason the EU are dictating the negotiations so much is we have almost half the country colluding to sabotage these talks, no wonder the Gov is struggling so much.
     
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    D

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    Today EURUSD hit the highest price it has seen in over two years.
    Not by looking at a long term graph it hasn't!
    What you are missing from your argument is that the US dollar goes down every time Trump opens his mouth in the same way that the pound goes down every time May opens hers. May is on holiday so the pound will likely rise for 3 weeks.
    Wait for the Tory Conference and watch the pound crash again like it did last year.
     
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    The reason the EU are dictating the negotiations so much is we have almost half the country colluding to sabotage these talks, no wonder the Gov is struggling so much.
    The government is struggling as a direct result of its own ineptitude and total disunity.

    Only today, the 'Govenator' took it upon himself to lay down arbitrary preconditions of his own invention, for the future import of US food products. Where does this little fool get off? Just what does it take for May to fire his arse and tell him to clear his desk and leave the pencils behind?

    That creepy excrescence has been running about, briefing against DD, Hammond and May herself. The last time somebody did that to me, he had five minutes to grab his stuff and get out, never to show his face ever again. Govey-Mac-Goveface on the other hand, seems enjoy the freedom of a court jester or a yapping dog.

    And whilst all that fun and games is going on, the Chancellor of the Exchequer (another effete Oxbridge PPE grad) openly and repeatedly contradicts his Prime Minister, who, for some reason just stands there and takes it.

    As for 'The Other Lot' - Comedy Central would appear to be their more natural home. One or two of the younger members of the Front Bench do their level best to sound like normal adults and then Dianne Abbott opens her mouth and all hope is lost!
    @The Byre and @atmosbob are not convinced that devaluation of GBP is a good thing.
    Just a FYI: We have been in a currency war since 2009. Japan and Europe are particularly keen on devaluing their currency. This is very different to the currency wars of the 1930 but it's a war nonetheless, just a more stealthy one (while playing the game of publicly denying any devaluation "intent" ...so as not to upset trading partner countries).
    That's like trying to win a butt-kicking contest. Win or lose, you get a sore butt!
     
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    KM-Tiger

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    This has to be one of the all time greats for #DespiteBrexit connoisseurs:

    DFqknZzWsAAoNqj.jpg
     
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    KM-Tiger

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    Digging around the story a bit it seems that the expensive bits like the engines and batteries will be made in Bavaria.
    Yes, it's not news of new investment and jobs, but it does seem that those employed at Cowley will have continuity. The existing models will be phased out at some point.

    I don't know where parts for the existing Minis are made. Probably all over Europe, but do say if you know.
     
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    D

    Deleted member 59730

    I don't know where parts for the existing Minis are made. Probably all over Europe, but do say if you know.
    All modern cars are made from parts all over the place. My previous French made Peugeot had parts made in England. My current Peugeot which I though was made in the UK was assembled in Italy. Some parts are almost in all cars because there is only one machine, patent or jig making those bits. For a long time London taxi engines were made in Turkey which was also the source of my boat's engine.

    I have no idea where Mini bits come from. I suppose I should have stayed working at Cowley.
     
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    Cobby

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    We will have to disagree, the referendum was offered as a chance for a democratic vote, I think the UK has everything to lose in ignoring the outcome. Once the idea that democracy has been lost, no-one knows where we will end up, the mother of all parliaments might as well close for good. The back lash might surprise many, I for one would never wish to vote again, why bother? So what then will replace the ballot box? This country, one of the most stable in the world is on the brink of throwing 500 odd years of parliament away. Anyone seriously arguing against the referendum being carried through have to consider if they believe in democracy.
    If your idea of democracy was the shambles of the EURef then yes, we can label that for what it was, put it behind us as an example of how not to do it and proceed with reasonable regulation to such votes in the future - rules on funding, rules on honesty, rules on outcomes/majorities/etc.

    People previously voted to join the EU (such as it was) and by example of not choosing to leave, implicitly agreed with its evolution. Now you want to overturn that vote? Why? Because you think the EU is bad? How is that different to half the country not wanting brexit because the evidence and common sense suggests it's going to be even worse?

    We've had the vote and it was an exercise in deception, bigotry and elitism from the far right media barons. Why not at the very *least* expect a second vote on the outcome of the deal? That spectrum of people who voted for Leave - occupying positions from "I don't want to leave the EU but am voting to protest the government and it's not like we'll actually leave anyway" all the way through "let's leave but have SM access" right up to "Let's Make Britain White Again" - you think they have a homogeneous position on what the future of the country should be when presented with evidence of economic harm for everyone *including themselves*? Of course not. They should be afforded the choice to say yes or no to any deal once things are clear. You can't wax lyrical about democracy and then deny it where it's actually needed.


    Once again, just saying something does not make it correct. If the experts were to be believed, not joining the Euro would have decimated the UK, it did not, voting for Brexit the same, it did not, the various financial experts predicting economic downturns, the opposite happened. [...snip personal anecdote...]

    The main thing anyone should see from the actual real world evidence is the experts get things wrong more often than correct. Imagine how things might be if people began to get behind Brexit, back the negotiations in the national interest, instead of the bunch of idiots looking to use Brexit for their own reasons.

    The reason the EU are dictating the negotiations so much is we have almost half the country colluding to sabotage these talks, no wonder the Gov is struggling so much.
    Pretty much every thread we've had on here has been an exercise in simply debunking the Leave arguments and it's been colossally one-sided. Even if you don't want to go further afield to read the data and analyses, those threads are a good resource.

    This is an informative paragraph though as it expresses every problem with the Leave mentality. Denial of reality, historical editing, anti-expertise sentiment, and declaring their opponents to be unpatriotic.

    The government aren't struggling with negotiations because half the country rejects the idea of Brexit as ridiculous, they are struggling because they are inept and in an incredibly weak bargaining position. Unfortunately no amount of "patriotic faith in good ol' blighty" will alter the reality of these facts.
     
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    MBE2017

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    If your idea of democracy was the shambles of the EURef then yes, we can label that for what it was, put it behind us as an example of how not to do it and proceed with reasonable regulation to such votes in the future - rules on funding, rules on honesty, rules on outcomes/majorities/etc.

    It might not have been perfect, but it was what it was, a referendum. No-one seems to have had a problem until some decided the wrong decision was reached. Yet again, the rules were simple, and no substantial argument was made until after the result as to majorities required etc.

    You mention the previous referendum, before my time but conducted I believe in the same manner. I do agree the campaign was very dishonest, remember the nightmare fear factor relied on to stop people voting to leave, but still they did. The deception, bigotry and spend was far more exercised by the remainers, backed by the UK Gov and EU, I wonder how many were scared into voting for the status quo?

    Why do I want to overturn the previous vote to enter? I had no voice on that referendum, but does a nation never get to change it's mind? With 40/50 years of constant lies sold to it's citizens by all UK Govs of all colours have missold the idea and end game of the EU, Predicting the future of the country depends on your point of view, this decision was not just a financial decision for the country, it was how people wished to move forward, either in or out of the EU. The question was once again not suggested as unfair from memory.

    As for your democracy argument, having another vote, since a previous vote many years ago means the country decided once before, the only person denying a democratic decision is yourself and others wishing to ignore the result. Democracy is not perfect, but most accept it is the best option available, time to accept the decision.

    Simply saying people who are pro the vote are in denial simply fits your viewpoint, but as has been stated, your opinion counts no more than anyone else's, no matter how superior you feel over others beliefs and decision. If the vote had gone the other way, it would have been accepted, and no serious new vote would have been suggested for a couple of generations.

    Time to move on.
     
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    What a pity Clinton is on holiday and can't tell us what a good thing it is that our economy is stagnating and that despite the low value of the pound our exports are going down!

    The INSEE, the French equivalent of our ONS, has just published the GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2017. It stands at 0.7%. Ours stands at 0.3% for the same period.
     
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    Clinton

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    The INSEE, the French equivalent of our ONS, has just published the GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2017. It stands at 0.7%. Ours stands at 0.3% for the same period.

    Oh wow, no kidding. All of 0.7%? Well done, France!

    Now maybe you can take a look at all the post Referendum quarters rather than choosing one quarter in isolation. Where were you in April this year (almost a year after the Referendum) when the UK posted 1.8% for the year and France posted 1.2%?

    Or is your case reliant on the odd quarter's result (in a quarter where Britain traditionally performs less well?)

    Jeez. Do try harder!

    And I hope you're happy our exports are going down now that the pound has reversed half the price advantage it gained after the referendum. So you're not happy that yesterday GBPUSD reached the highest price in almost a year? You guys moan and moan about GBP being low and then as soon as it starts climbing you moan about the high pound damaging exports.

    Make your bloody minds up! ;)
     
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    Deleted member 59730

    And I hope you're happy our exports are going down now that the pound has reversed half the price advantage it gained after the referendum. So you're not happy that yesterday GBPUSD reached the highest price in almost a year? You guys moan and moan about GBP being low and then as soon as it starts climbing you moan about the high pound damaging exports.
    I think you need a new calculator! When Cameron called the Referendum the Pound stood around 1.44 Euro. A short while ago it stood at 1.11 up from 1.10 at its lowest. If a rise of .01 percent is good I'd hate to see what is bad.

    Rates to the dollar which is depressed by the Trump factor has risen .1% from its lowest against a drop of about .5% from when it was last reasonably stable.
     
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    Clinton

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    I think you need a new calculator!
    I think you need to learn the difference between USD and EUR because I quoted prices in USD... and they are all valid.

    The failed experiment called the Euro is a different subject and one that I don't have time to go into today. Suffice that it is really struggling, it's far higher against most major currencies (including GBP and USD) and causing a lot of hardship in Europe. The ECB is not happy about it, but I am glad that you are. At least there's something to be happy about, eh?
     
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