Brexit negotiations

[The Byre]

There is another very important aspect to this entire debate and that is the existing treaties that the EU has with FTA and EEA countries.

FTA+ and EEA- are not options the EU can give. The reason is that if the EU gives the UK an FTA+ style agreement, it is bound by its other FTA agreements to extend the same privileges granted in the FTA+ style agreement to the UK to those countries as well. So Japan, Singapore, Canada, etc will then also get financial services included in their FTAs. The EU can’t reasonably offer this.

As for EEA-, any limits on EU nationals coming to work would likewise need to be extended to the EFTA/EEA partners and basically bring an end to the EEA’s single market.

The EU is bound by existing treaties to which the UK is at present a party and should be fully aware of. These treaties expressly prevent a 'Norway-Light' or a 'Canada-Plus' compromise.

In short - there can be no choice other than Remain, Norway, or No Deal. A simple FTA is out, because that would mean a boarder between NI and the Rest-UK.

So once again, No Deal is the only likely outcome. It's either that, or give up on the whole project.

 

[Newchodge]

@The Byre I usually agree with every letter of every word you write. But would you please stop putting an a in the word border. A boarder is someone who lives with you, or who uses a board. a border is a barrier between places or the edge of the lawn.
Rant over.

 

[The Byre]

I am profoundly dyslexic and rely on all kinds of aids to get through the intellectual day! One of these is (obviously!) spelling correction - if it don't get a red line under the word, it must be OK. This is all part of having Asperger's syndrome which means I can't wear a watch or go shopping for trousers.

It also means that I like tactile things like building materials and building things myself and I adore cooking and refuse to eat any processed foods or drink. Everybody here thinks I'm just nuts - but then they assume I am just boarderline! (oops! that brought on a red line!)

 

[Newchodge]

I am profoundly dyslexic and rely on all kinds of aids to get through the intellectual day! One of these is (obviously!) spelling correction - if it don't get a red line under the word, it must be OK. This is all part of having Asperger's syndrome which means I can't wear a watch or go shopping for trousers.

It also means that I like tactile things like building materials and building things myself and I adore cooking and refuse to eat any processed foods or drink. Everybody here thinks I'm just nuts - but then they assume I am just boarderline! (oops! that brought on a red line!)

Your contributions are always to the point. It just gives me a mental earworm over boarders, cos I see them as a bunch of pirates swinging onto the ship!

 

[Deleted member 59730]

There is of course another alternative. The referendum has now been found to fall foul of the rules agreed in the EU and known as the Venice Code. The EU could decide on this basis to tear up Article 50 and demand that the UK hold another referendum.

The Venice Code also seems to suggest that referendums do not always have to be initiated by governments. A Peoples' Referendum is possible.

 

[Newchodge]

If we have another referendum it needs to have absolutely clear rules who can vote, that it is (still) advisory not mandatory, what the question(s) should be etc. That will take time to sort out, even if it doesn't need parliamentary authority. It must need some kind of authority, however, as it involves a lot of cost.

The point is, though, that we did not need a referendum in order to trigger Article 50, so the fact the referendum was probably corrupt is not the business of the EU and they cannnot require us to withdraw our notice to quit.

We triggered Article 50. Either it goes on to the sorry end or we seek to withdraw it.

 

[Gecko001]

There is of course another alternative. The referendum has now been found to fall foul of the rules agreed in the EU and known as the Venice Code. The EU could decide on this basis to tear up Article 50 and demand that the UK hold another referendum.

The Venice Code also seems to suggest that referendums do not always have to be initiated by governments. A Peoples' Referendum is possible.

Looks like this thread is straying into the land of the fairies. The EU demanding a second referendum.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

Looks like this thread is straying into the land of the fairies. The EU demanding a second referendum.

You missed out the word "could". I don't think they will to save Jacob Moggie having a heart attack.

Points......

1/ The EU is a rules based organisation.

2/ The EU have rules for holding referendums.

3/ The leave campaign cheated on those rules.

4/ The referendum is now illegal.

I think we can now expect a few crowd funded judicial reviews.

 

[Gecko001]

I am glad that you now think the EU will not demand a second referendum. You are now back in the land of the real.

 

[Mr D]

If we have another referendum it needs to have absolutely clear rules who can vote, that it is (still) advisory not mandatory, what the question(s) should be etc. That will take time to sort out, even if it doesn't need parliamentary authority. It must need some kind of authority, however, as it involves a lot of cost.

The point is, though, that we did not need a referendum in order to trigger Article 50, so the fact the referendum was probably corrupt is not the business of the EU and they cannnot require us to withdraw our notice to quit.

We triggered Article 50. Either it goes on to the sorry end or we seek to withdraw it.

We didn't need a referendum to trigger article 50 but we did use the result of the referendum to do so. More than one political party before a general election promised a referendum on the EU, one gave us it.
The results not being to the liking of some of the parties does not prevent the result being implemented.
Much to the annoyance of at least one poster (maybe several) on here.

 

[Gecko001]

This is something that many have suspected will happen. Now it is actually being done by the Netherlands. I remember discussing it on this forum over a year ago. See following link:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...hard-brexit-uk-hire-staff-dutch-a8452386.html

 

[Newchodge]

Unfortunately, it is not being done here, where it will be most needed.

 

[Gecko001]

Unfortunately, it is not being done here, where it will be most needed.

Someone suggested on this thread last year that the UK plan for a "no deal" situation was:

"Customs: Wait until a few days before the day we have to leave the EU and then send someone out to order: 500 Portakabins and 100 gross of clipboards

Well I think he was wrong, it should be 200 gross of clipboards.

 

[Mr D]

Someone suggested on this thread last year that the UK plan for a "no deal" situation was:

"Customs: Wait until a few days before the day we have to leave the EU and then send someone out to order: 500 Portakabins and 100 gross of clipboards

Well I think he was wrong, it should be 200 gross of clipboards.

Don't forget, 1st April next year start recruitment process to get more customs staff.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

Unfortunately, it is not being done here, where it will be most needed.

Spoke to a guy on the train who worked for a big company planning to re-locate to a town which is also a ferry port. They changed plans when they found that they couldn't get enough staff. Turning on hundreds of new customs officers will not be easy.

 

[Mr D]

Spoke to a guy on the train who worked for a big company planning to re-locate to a town which is also a ferry port. They changed plans when they found that they couldn't get enough staff. Turning on hundreds of new customs officers will not be easy.

Would staff have to be imported from elsewhere?

 

[Deleted member 59730]

Would staff have to be imported from elsewhere?

The EU?

 

[Cobby]

The results not being to the liking of some of the parties does not prevent the result being implemented.

This is an empty comment. The result being 90% Remain/10% Leave also would not prevent the Government triggering Article 50.

Still waiting on your clarification about the EU referendum question, Mr D. Your evasion of the point is starting to make you look bad...

 

[Cobby]

You missed out the word "could". I don't think they will to save Jacob Moggie having a heart attack.

Points......

1/ The EU is a rules based organisation.

2/ The EU have rules for holding referendums.

3/ The leave campaign cheated on those rules.

4/ The referendum is now illegal.

I think we can now expect a few crowd funded judicial reviews.

I think you mean the Vienna Convention, not the Venice Code.

And since The Referendum was won by a campaign that was wildly dishonest, unethical and most importantly, illegal, the Vienna Convention would definitely render the result illegitimate.

The problem is, it wasn't a proper referendum as such, it was a UK government, advisory, non-binding referendum.

The government had (and still has) no legal requirement to carry out the result. Ironically it's only the fact that we have never lost our sovereignty that allows us to do so.

 

[Cobby]

And if anyone is wondering about The People's Vote, it's unlikely for two main reasons.

The first is that the Government is now being driven by Rees-Mogg and there is no way he'll accept anything less than a full No-Deal Crash Out.

The second is that there is no Off-The-Peg referendum legislation. A referendum requires an act of parliament and the primary legislation for that can take 6-12 months and the secondary legislation can be 3-6 months. Without some kind of agreement from the EU, there probably isn't the time to put a referendum together before Brexit, especially since the government is currently trying to give itself an early holiday during a national crisis. Some leadership, huh.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

I think you mean the Vienna Convention, not the Venice Code.

No. http://www.venice.coe.int/webforms/documents/default.aspx?pdffile=CDL-AD(2007)008-e

It is quite clear that the referendum could be cancelled.

e. The appeal body must have authority to annul the referendum where irregularities may
have affected the outcome. It must be possible to annul the entire referendum or merely
the results for one polling station or constituency. In the event of annulment of the global
result, a new referendum must be called.

 

[Cobby]

No. http://www.venice.coe.int/webforms/documents/default.aspx?pdffile=CDL-AD(2007)008-e

It is quite clear that the referendum could be cancelled.

e. The appeal body must have authority to annul the referendum where irregularities may
have affected the outcome. It must be possible to annul the entire referendum or merely
the results for one polling station or constituency. In the event of annulment of the global
result, a new referendum must be called.

Ah okay.

Anyway, the sticking point apparently remains the same - it seems this doesn't apply since the referendum was not binding and only for advisory purposes.

 

[JEREMY HAWKE]

I think if we have another referendum voting should only be limited to those individuals That have passed at least two A levels

 

[Mr D]

I think if we have another referendum voting should only be limited to those individuals That have passed at least two A levels

Damn.

I've only got 8 GCSEs and a degree.
Would a Mastery certificate count?

 

[alan1302]

I think if we have another referendum voting should only be limited to those individuals That have passed at least two A levels

You don't think people from Scotland where they don't have A levels should have a vote? Lol

 

[Deleted member 59730]

I think if we have another referendum voting should only be limited to those individuals That have passed at least two A levels

Too hard for me then!

I'd have a simple questionaire.

What is the difference between an immigrant and a refugee?
Do you really think that the entire population of Turkey are planning to come to the UK?
Do you know what a Carnet is?
Have you ever in your life filled in a Customs Declaration?
Do you really think that the EU has banned bendy bananas?
etc etc etc

 

[Mr D]

Too hard for me then!

I'd have a simple questionaire.

What is the difference between an immigrant and a refugee?
Do you really think that the entire population of Turkey are planning to come to the UK?
Do you know what a Carnet is?
Have you ever in your life filled in a Customs Declaration?
Do you really think that the EU has banned bendy bananas?
etc etc etc

Wasn't there a subset of the population that were scared the entire population of Romania would come to the UK?
Which didn't happen.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

Well there was at least one person who thought almost the entire population could come to the UK.

Quote: Boris Johnson dismisses fears that trade will be hit by Brexit - and warns '77million Turks could enter the UK' as we still can't restrain immigration.

The current population of Turkey is estimated at 81.92 million

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-hit-Brexit-warns-t-restrain-immigration.html

 

[JEREMY HAWKE]

Too hard for me then!

I'd have a simple questionaire.

What is the difference between an immigrant and a refugee?
Do you really think that the entire population of Turkey are planning to come to the UK?
Do you know what a Carnet is?
Have you ever in your life filled in a Customs Declaration?
Do you really think that the EU has banned bendy bananas?
etc etc etc

Nobody will want to come to the UK soon !
An immigrant is from another land here to live or work
A refugee is a UKIP MEP who is now only safe in the UK and would be arrested in Europe and is no longer welcome in his or hers home town, Brussels

 

[Clodbuster]

Quote: Boris Johnson dismisses fears that trade will be hit by Brexit - and warns '77million Turks could enter the UK' as we still can't restrain immigration.

Cannot see anything wrong with that, if they wanted to, they could have - had they joined the EU. It does not say they would all decamp and move.

 

[Mr D]

Well there was at least one person who thought almost the entire population could come to the UK.

Quote: Boris Johnson dismisses fears that trade will be hit by Brexit - and warns '77million Turks could enter the UK' as we still can't restrain immigration.

The current population of Turkey is estimated at 81.92 million

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-hit-Brexit-warns-t-restrain-immigration.html

And we have a border force who - to the surprise of Boris - restrain immigration.
Turks could enter the UK last year. And the year before. And the decade before.

Went for a meal in a Turkish restaurant over 20 years ago, the family running it were from Turkey.

 

[Mr D]

Nobody will want to come to the UK soon !
An immigrant is from another land here to live or work
A refugee is a UKIP MEP who is now only safe in the UK and would be arrested in Europe and is no longer welcome in his or hers home town, Brussels

We do have people emigrating each year. The worse things get the more will emigrate.

 

[Cobby]

I think if we have another referendum voting should only be limited to those individuals That have passed at least two A levels

Tongue-in-cheek, I know, but that's a bad idea. A better approach should be media restrictions in the lead up to the vote, to stop the kind of disinformation and hate-mongering we saw from the Leave campaign and their supporting media outlets.

Also, the following should be allowed to vote:
* 16 & 17 year olds(for referendum and General Elections!)
* Anyone else already eligible to vote in local or national elections

That's democracy.

Cannot see anything wrong with that, if they wanted to, they could have - had they joined the EU. It does not say they would all decamp and move.

But Turkey joining the EU was never a possibility. Trying to deny that it was a tactic playing to bigotry is simply arguing in bad faith.

 

[Cobby]

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/...-breaches-good-friday-agreement-37136700.html
"She will also reiterate the government's commitment to ensuring there is no customs border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK"

For anyone not paying attention, this is Theresa May directly going back on a promise she made about the "backstop" in negotiations in December and again in March.

That's the last of her negotiating capital; she cannot now be trusted by any other party (EU or worldwide) to be negotiating anything honestly.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

And also from the Belfast Telegraph............

Senior French sources have also told the newspaper that under a hard Brexit, Ireland is primarily accountable to the EU and its single market.

In a no deal Brexit scenario, the new EU-UK relationship would be inferior to the EU's relationship with Russia.

 

[Cobby]

In a no-deal scenario, the morning after Brexit will see the Uk as the only nation on the entire planet without any trade deals in place. None.

 

[Employment Law Clinic]

In a no-deal scenario, the morning after Brexit will see the Uk as the only nation on the entire planet without any trade deals in place. None.

The "morning after" will only be hours after we Brexit - very hasty to expect the benefits of Brexit that soon!

On Channel 4, Jacob Rees-Mogg has suggested "the overwhelming opportunity is over the next 50 years" (1 minute, 19 into the video), not in the first few hours. Or days. Or weeks. Or months. Or years. Or decades. (Perhaps by 2069, Brexiteers will be open to the idea of another referendum too...)


Karl Limpert

 

[Mr D]

And also from the Belfast Telegraph............

Senior French sources have also told the newspaper that under a hard Brexit, Ireland is primarily accountable to the EU and its single market.

In a no deal Brexit scenario, the new EU-UK relationship would be inferior to the EU's relationship with Russia.

I can imagine we'd have an inferior relationship with any country until we get some agreements done. Including with Russia.

 

[Mr D]

The "morning after" will only be hours after we Brexit - very hasty to expect the benefits of Brexit that soon!

On Channel 4, Jacob Rees-Mogg has suggested "the overwhelming opportunity is over the next 50 years" (1 minute, 19 into the video), not in the first few hours. Or days. Or weeks. Or months. Or years. Or decades. (Perhaps by 2069, Brexiteers will be open to the idea of another referendum too...)


Karl Limpert

I'd expect some panic buying in advance of the time we leave. By businesses as well as consumers.
Food banks may become a LOT more popular briefly.

 

[Newchodge]

Food banks may become a LOT more popular briefly

I can't see how that can help. If we cnnot import any food there won't be any in the food banks.