Brexit negotiations

[Deleted member 59730]

And wouldn't it be so much better to buy the agricultural produce of developing countries, without needing to impose EU tariffs to allow them to trade to prosperity rather than dolloping aid cash at them?

I'm not sure I like the ethics of that. Taking food, often grown by multinationals, from poor countries where the population itself is mal-nourished and importing it into the UK doesn't seem like a nice thing to do. Then you have the problem of over spray with toxic chemicals, Polluting air miles and much else.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

Certainly is and the CAP not only costs us money* but sees food prices in the EU being circa 20% higher than world prices.

Yes there would be quality issues but wouldn't Brexit be an opportunity to reduce our food bills?

And wouldn't it be so much better to buy the agricultural produce of developing countries, without needing to impose EU tariffs to allow them to trade to prosperity rather than dolloping aid cash at them?

* Tony Blair gave away half of our EU budget rebate on the promise of reform of the CAP. Needless to say that has never happened.

But it gives money to the farmers. In fact, many in the UK rely on the subsidies to continue producing British food.

Damage would be mitigated in all sorts of ways if the UK promised to pick up the funding we'll lose from the EU. Not just in farming, but also science, research, regional development and many other areas. But so far, there has been little indication they will do that long-term.

I'm not sure why you think our food bills will go down. The loss of subsidies and migrant labour will see UK-produced food prices increase, as will the devaluation of the pound (which is already happening). Then you have the eventual tariffs and quotas on top.

We may shift more importing towards developing countries, providing that food safety, quality and animal welfare standards are met (which is easier said than done).

It's also very likely that even developing countries would impose tariffs and quotas as part of an FTA to protect themselves domestically. If we and other wealthier nations buy too much of their food production, they will struggle to supply their own people. They will almost certainly want safeguards in place to prevent the UK purchasing too much food at the lowest rates.

 

[KM-Tiger]

I'm not sure I like the ethics of that.

It's called trade. Or would you rather those countries remained poor?

EU tariffs are structured to prevent those countries developing. So they can export cocoa beans but face a high tariff barrier on chocolate, which would be more profitable. Personally I do not like the ethics of that.

 

[KM-Tiger]

But it gives money to the farmers. In fact, many in the UK rely on the subsidies to continue producing British food.

It does indeed and there would be a fine balance to be found between protecting our own agriculture and reducing our food bills.

Not easy, but isn't that what we elect govts to deal with? When we cease to be told how to do it by EU bureaucrats, we'll have to.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

It does indeed and there would be a fine balance to be found between protecting our own agriculture and reducing our food bills.

Not easy, but isn't that what we elect govts to deal with? When we cease to be told how to do it by EU bureaucrats, we'll have to.

I don't think there will be a balance. Can you see the Government prioritising this over reducing the annual deficit? I can't.

What about the UK's recently scrapped regional development fund? I can't see that making a return, either. Particularly if the economy does take a slump and UK tax income falls.

I've said it before, but it's worth repeating: we had a really good thing going in the single market and customs union. No tariffs, no quotas and no restrictions - not to mention the billions of pounds saved because we didn't have to police almost half our trade.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...fold-rise-customs-brexit-hmrc-mps-declaration

I honestly believe that all (if not more) of the money saved from not paying into the EU will go towards beefing up our customs and border systems just to cope. It's a shake-up of truly epic proportions.

 

[KM-Tiger]

No tariffs, no quotas and no restrictions

Even you know there are a lot of restrictions that arise from both Single Market membership and the customs union.

In particular we are not free to either strike trade deals or adjust our tariffs with the rest of the world, which as a market is growing while the EU declines.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

It's called trade. Or would you rather those countries remained poor?

Do you have any personal experience of this? Please name the countries who would be happy to sell stuff to a rich European country while their own people have less food as a consequence.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

In particular we are not free to either strike trade deals or adjust our tariffs with the rest of the world, which as a market is growing while the EU declines.

Every time I visit the mainland I am struck at how well they are doing compared to the UK. How much happier they are compared to us. How much better the facilities are than ours.

Don't believe everything you read in the Telegraph.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

Even you know there are a lot of restrictions that arise from both Single Market membership and the customs union.

In particular we are not free to either strike trade deals or adjust our tariffs with the rest of the world, which as a market is growing while the EU declines.

Sure. But it's a pro vs con situation.

We get tariff-free, quota-free and altogether unfettered trade access to the EU (which makes up almost 25% of the global economy) along with dozens of existing free trade agreements with many major and developing economies.

We'll sacrifice that for what? Even if we're full of FTAs, there will still be quotas and tariffs from the EU, China, the US and everyone else.

Trade with many economies is also infeasible on any significant scale when time zones, industrial sectors and regulations are taken into account.

Here's a good rule of thumb: If we aren't already doing meaningful trade with a country, a free trade agreement won't fix that. They aren't magic bullets. We can't get around the fact there are some exports the UK produces that other countries simply aren't interested in buying - even if you snip 10% or 20% off by eliminating tariffs.

The biggest mistake the UK could make is to assume that there's a bottomless pit of trading opportunities beyond the EU. We make specific products, and we sell specific services. Countries that have demands for these are already trading with us. The pool is more limited than many assume.

 

[quikshop]

Every time I visit the mainland I am struck at how well they are doing compared to the UK. How much happier they are compared to us. How much better the facilities are than ours.

I guess you see what you want to see. Whenever I travel across Europe I see comparable levels of society, infrastructure and facilities... we ace 'em on some and we're behind on other areas but Western society has largely advanced together across national borders.

It is sad that you don't feel happy atmosbob; you always seem so cheerful and full of hope and optimism on this forum

 

[Deleted member 59730]

I guess you see what you want to see.

Its not just what I see but perhaps who I know and talk to.

But you are correct, it does depend on what you want to see. Living in Cornwall we have thousands of visitors every year who see a wonderful county full of beaches and good restaurants. What they do not see is the deprived areas where mothers cannot afford to take their children to the beach on the other side of town during the holidays. Still according to the last Census there are over 3,300 Jedi living in the county.

 

[Mr D]

I'm not sure I like the ethics of that. Taking food, often grown by multinationals, from poor countries where the population itself is mal-nourished and importing it into the UK doesn't seem like a nice thing to do. Then you have the problem of over spray with toxic chemicals, Polluting air miles and much else.

Can always avoid buying from those countries, instead buying from richer more developed countries. Not sure how that helps anyone in the poorer country but I'm sure you can provide info.
You usually cannot avoid buying food from somewhere.

Population malnourished in a country and export of food from that country are not cause and effect.
Over spray with toxic chemicals - then set standards about what is allowed to be imported. And what chucked away.

 

[Mr D]

Its not just what I see but perhaps who I know and talk to.

But you are correct, it does depend on what you want to see. Living in Cornwall we have thousands of visitors every year who see a wonderful county full of beaches and good restaurants. What they do not see is the deprived areas where mothers cannot afford to take their children to the beach on the other side of town during the holidays. Still according to the last Census there are over 3,300 Jedi living in the county.

The mothers cannot walk across town during the holidays in Cornwall. Can they walk across town at all?
How times change, back in the 70s we would walk to the beach from miles away. There are even towns that have vehicles able to transport people.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

Over spray with toxic chemicals - then set standards about what is allowed to be imported. And what chucked away.

So what do we do when we try to seek more supposedly cheaper food imports from outside of the EU and find that alternative markets have this issue? Where do we get food from?

You've suggested buying food from richer, more developed nations, but that comes back to the issue of price.

There are solutions to all of these problems, of course: we pay a lot more for our food imports and ultimately a lot more in the supermarket. If we accept that, we can buy from anyone and even keep the EU as our main supplier.

But that would require Brexiteers to admit that we're going to be worse off after we leave.

 

[Mr D]

Atmosbob has an issue with buying from poorer countries so I suggested richer more developed nations.
Solves his issue, does not solve anything for the farmers in that country.
Yes buying from richer nations means higher price, a price he is willing to pay?
Just cannot avoid buying in food from anyone. Like it or not the people here like imported food.

We are all brexiters now there was a vote on it and the majority won.

 

[KM-Tiger]

But that would require Brexiteers to admit that we're going to be worse off after we leave.

There has always been a risk that we might be worse off after we leave. Impossible to say by how much and for how long, perhaps not at all.

I don't think I am alone in having accepted that risk as a fair price to pay for doing the right thing.

 

[Mr D]

There has always been a risk that we might be worse off after we leave. Impossible to say by how much and for how long, perhaps not at all.

I don't think I am alone in having accepted that risk as a fair price to pay for doing the right thing.

Or at least doing what you thought at the time was the right thing.

Whether it turns out to be the right thing is both another matter and far more subjective.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

There has always been a risk that we might be worse off after we leave. Impossible to say by how much and for how long, perhaps not at all.

I don't think I am alone in having accepted that risk as a fair price to pay for doing the right thing.

I think you're one of the very few, to be honest.

There's a big difference between statistical newspaper headlines and real life. Many will dismiss the macroeconomic percentages, but when they start feeling the pinch in their day-to-day lives, that's when people will lose patience very quickly.

There are plenty of polls out there which show that the vast majority of leave voters either thought the economy would improve, or there wouldn't be much difference either way. If there does turn out to be a big difference, that's a problem.

Most leave voters simply don't believe that a risk exists (or they didn't back then, anyway). For every remainer who voted with the unflappable belief that the UK would be damaged, there was a leave voter who had the same strength of belief that nothing bad would happen.

The whole referendum campaign attempted to dismiss the warnings as scaremongering. I would have loved to have seen a campaign where the Brexiteers said "well there's a good chance that we'll all end up poorer, but that's a price worth paying, right?".

Also, with a huge percentage of the leave vote coming from working class or unemployed people, I don't think it's credible to suggest that they voted knowing there was a good chance they would make their already difficult financial situation even worse.

And there is a good chance. A very, very good chance. You say it's a risk, but when I look at the facts of what will happen, the impact can only be bad. The only question is how long it will last.

 

[MASSEY]

You seem to have missed my point. The reason some people want to agree an earlier cut-off date for free movement is because they're worried about a surge of people trying to come in before the gates close, so to speak.

A surge would imply net migration which is considerably larger than the current trend.

Net migration has been gradually increasing over time, but that's been happening well before the idea of a referendum was even mooted. Now the referendum has happened, and we're on our way out, there is zero evidence of any kind of "surge". In fact, figures have declined.

.

Do you know why it's not so much of a surge now?

Because the public and UKIP put pressure on the government to go against the eu and make getting benefits more difficult.

 

[quikshop]

Still according to the last Census there are over 3,300 Jedi living in the county.

Apparently New Zealand has the biggest concentration of Jedi. Not sure what Saruman will make of that

There has always been a risk that we might be worse off after we leave. Impossible to say by how much and for how long, perhaps not at all. I don't think I am alone in having accepted that risk as a fair price to pay for doing the right thing.

Agreed, nothing has changed. Despite Tony Blair's latest deception - he really is the fork-tongued snake in the grass and continues to be the biggest recruiting officer for anti-EU sentiment - the EU empire remains the biggest threat to representative democracy since the Second World War.

 

[KM-Tiger]

the EU empire remains the biggest threat to representative democracy since the Second World War.

Yes, that's what I meant by the right thing.

Probably not in my lifetime, but it will eventually lead to war or insurrection. If the people cannot use democracy to change things, then they will use arms.

 

[Mr D]

Yes, that's what I meant by the right thing.

Probably not in my lifetime, but it will eventually lead to war or insurrection. If the people cannot use democracy to change things, then they will use arms.

So will the losers of a vote use arms?
Labour / greens / snp / ukip / mrlp / tuc etc rebel using arms because they did not win a democratic result they wanted?

 

[Clinton]

Today's Good News: Inflation has dropped.

Dropped!

No, I kid you not. All the doom and gloom merchants predicted an immediate rise in inflation - to double digits - because of the pound. I kept saying it wouldn't happen, but no, they said, just wait for a bit and you'll see inflation rise.

We've now waited for over a year.

Inflation went up a tiny bit recently, to 2.9% in May, and they screamed in unison, that the end of the world is coming, as predicted.

It has dropped back to 2.6%.

I'm waiting for some muppet to blame that (completely!) on fuel prices and ignore that the drop in the value of the pound hasn't had the effect they expected on trade, balance of trade, imports, GDP...

They screwed up when painting the decrease in the value of GDP as a universally bad thing.

Their panic over the rest of Brexit is a similar overreaction.

 

[Newchodge]

Do you know why it's not so much of a surge now?

Because the public and UKIP put pressure on the government to go against the eu and make getting benefits more difficult.

EU migrants are only enttiled to state benefits in their host country dfor 3 months. If they don't have a job by the end of that time they can be required to leave. This has existed for a long time. The government in this country chooses not to use this power or to let the population know it exists.

 

[KM-Tiger]

Today's Good News: Inflation has dropped.

The BBC have restrained themselves from saying "despite Brexit".

Just "unexpectedly".

 

[Jeff FV]

I am no economist, but I suspect that the fall in inflation, just like the preceding rise in inflation, is just "noise" in a gradual increase in underlying increase in inflation.

I wonder what is a realistic time scale to look at changes in the rate of inflation? Genuine question - a year, perhaps?

If one was so inclined, one could argue that the rate of inflation has fallen by 10% over the last month (calculate the percentage change between 2.9% (last month) and 2.6% (this month))

I suppose the point I'm trying to make is that we should get in the habit of questioning the numbers behind the headlines. (To be fair - I appreciate I'm preaching to the converted. Most on this forum do so, my message is for the wider public.)

 

[Deleted member 59730]

Today's Good News: Inflation has dropped.

Absolutely bloody amazing. Inflation is only double the Eurozone and its considered good news.

Euro area 1.3% in June , 1.4% in May.
UK inflation 2.6% in june, 2.9% in may

 

[The Byre]

Their panic over the rest of Brexit is a similar overreaction.

There's no panic, just a large number of people suffering from 'the boiled frog' syndrome. It goes like this -

When the referendum was called, the UK has a GDP-per-capita of $42,000 (ppp). The Rep. of Ireland had a GDP-per-capita of $50,000.

Last year, the UK's figure was $43,000, RoI had $69,000.

It's not that the roof is falling in, but that the economy has stopped growing.

It's not what is happening, or even what might happen - but what is not happening that aught to make you worried.

 

[Mr D]

Absolutely bloody amazing. Inflation is only double the Eurozone and its considered good news.

Euro area 1.3% in June , 1.4% in May.
UK inflation 2.6% in june, 2.9% in may

Eurozone inflation drawn from multiple countries? Wide range of pricing across multiple countries?

 

[Mr D]

There's no panic, just a large number of people suffering from 'the boiled frog' syndrome. It goes like this -

When the referendum was called, the UK has a GDP-per-capita of $42,000 (ppp). The Rep. of Ireland had a GDP-per-capita of $50,000.

Last year, the UK's figure was $43,000, RoI had $69,000.

It's not that the roof is falling in, but that the economy has stopped growing.

It's not what is happening, or even what might happen - but what is not happening that aught to make you worried.

So when was the referendum called? 2016?
What figures were available at that time? 2015? 2014?
So 2016 figures were higher, just not as big an increase as RoI.

 

[STDFR33]

Absolutely bloody amazing. Inflation is only double the Eurozone and its considered good news.

Euro area 1.3% in June , 1.4% in May.
UK inflation 2.6% in june, 2.9% in may

You can't compare the inflation in the UK to the Eurozone. The Eurozone inflation is easily distorted. For example Romania is at 0.9%, whilst Lithuania is at 3.6%.

Inflation is just one of many measurements of the performance of a country.

 

[KM-Tiger]

Absolutely bloody amazing. Inflation is only double the Eurozone and its considered good news.

Euro area 1.3% in June , 1.4% in May.
UK inflation 2.6% in june, 2.9% in may

I knew we should have joined the Euro! If only Gordon Brown had not stopped it.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

The worrying thing about inflation is not the percentage itself, which isn't particularly high. It's the fact that inflation is already above target before we've even left.

The main driving force is the devaluation of the pound. Other than that, we're still in the EU and chugging along with the exact same economic infrastructure we've always had.

The real worry is what happens when we leave, with the risk of tariffs, quotas, trade restrictions and further pound devaluation. When inflation is already above average, and we haven't even came anywhere near peak inflation yet, that's a bad omen.

Oil prices are also a big concern. One of the main factors behind the fall in inflation is the price of fuel. If that goes up, inflation will surge past 3% and beyond before Brexit even happens, with the worst yet to come.

 

[The Byre]

Actually Clinton is right. The sky will not fall in, locusts will not devour the fields, your first-born will not die of the plague and hyper-inflation will not force Mrs Millie Tooley of 17, Oil Drum Lane, Siddcup, to have to take in lodgers (even though she would fancy a couple of muscular, young Polish brickies knocking around the place!)

All that will happen, is the slow demise of the UK economy. We remain static, whilst the South European countries are sorting themselves out slowly, squeezing out corruption and getting their finances in order and the Eastern EU countries begin to find their feet and open factories, often for international companies from the US, rest-EU and China.

The European economy is growing today. The UK economy is not. In five years time, assuming that we leave the EU, the economy will be exactly where it is today and @Clinton will come on this forum and tell you that he was right all along! "Nothing dreadful happened!"

But something dreadful will have happened - namely nothing!

As long as the UK plays with its own little Monopoly money tokens, cuts itself off from Europe and plays hard-to-get, all alone in its bedroom, it cannot grow and prosper.

The only way out of this crazy dilemma, is for the UK to admit that the whole idea was one giant mistake and that no country can survive outside of one or the other trading bloc. The very idea that the UK can 'go-it-alone' as the ONLY country on Planet Earth that is not in a trading bloc of some sort, is to display gross economic illiteracy, as well as foolhardy arrogance.

 

[STDFR33]

We have people in this thread that can predict 5 years ahead, when top economists often struggle to plan a few months ahead.

 

[The Byre]

We have people in this thread that can predict 5 years ahead, when top economists often struggle to plan a few months ahead.

Nobody can predict the future and only a fool would try - but we certainly should be able to see what is happening today, right now!

It's a bit like when we take the wrong exit off a round-about and the dead-pan voice on the sat-nav says "Please turn around at the first opportunity!"

We have no idea where this road will take us, but it certainly does not look like anywhere we want to go! As we head off down this road, conditions seem to be getting worse. That alone aught to tell us something!

 

[STDFR33]

We have no idea where this road will take us, but it certainly does not look like anywhere we want to go! As we head off down this road, conditions seem to be getting worse. That alone aught to tell us something!

You sometimes get a little turbulence on a flight, but still end up somewhere nice and sunny.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

The European economy is growing today. The UK economy is not. In five years time, assuming that we leave the EU, the economy will be exactly where it is today and Clinton will come on this forum and tell you that he was right all along! "Nothing dreadful happened!"

I agree with the sentiment, although I'd go as far as to say that a recession is likely, with the possibility that the UK economy will be smaller in five years than it is today. But that's heavily dependent on the outcome of the negotiations.

The only way out of this crazy dilemma, is for the UK to admit that the whole idea was one giant mistake and that no country can survive outside of one or the other trading bloc. The very idea that the UK can 'go-it-alone' as the ONLY country on Planet Earth that is not in a trading bloc of some sort, is to display gross economic illiteracy, as well as foolhardy arrogance.

Absolutely. I don't think some people fully appreciate that such an approach would be going completely against the grain of almost every other country on the planet.

While every major economy (sans self-destructive protectionist policies) is leveraging regional trade with a bloc, we're going in the opposite direction with smiles on our faces like we're lucky enough to have broke free.

The EU, with the single market and customs union, is the greatest economic tool the UK has available by a mile. Given the way it works, nothing else comes close. Unfettered regional trade with almost 25% of global GDP in a way that some countries would only dream of.

Yet us Brits really don't seem that bothered about it.

The question next is whether we will try to join another trade bloc. We could, but that runs into similar issues that many disliked in the EU, except with countries such as the United States instead.

We clearly don't like having to compromise with other countries. It's one of the reasons why we voted for Brexit. So I'm not sure what hope we have when venturing farther afield.

 

[Mr D]

Nobody can predict the future and only a fool would try - but we certainly should be able to see what is happening today, right now!

It's a bit like when we take the wrong exit off a round-about and the dead-pan voice on the sat-nav says "Please turn around at the first opportunity!"

We have no idea where this road will take us, but it certainly does not look like anywhere we want to go! As we head off down this road, conditions seem to be getting worse. That alone aught to tell us something!

If someone could predict the future you would not believe them anyway.

 

[KM-Tiger]

The question next is whether we will try to join another trade bloc.

What we want to achieve is to be in the EU trade bloc, the "Common Market" we voted to join all those years ago, but not be part of the EU superstate.

Impossible you will say, but we have to see.