Vlad the Invader - Why not just take him out?

[thetiger2015]

I dont like Boris either but I would be behind him if he showed some metal He always wanted to be a force for good in history . Now here is his chance !

Be careful. Boris would love to be seen as a Churchill like figure and wars can be spun by the media. If he thinks it would make him look good, he would do it but he's also being tempered by the fact we just don't have any overseas military capability, save for a little bit of special forces to extract certain people with amazing skill. Against Russia? No chance. We would be obliterated.

 

[Newchodge]

On a point of order, he is not a sociopath, but a narcissist. The terms sociopath, psychopath and narcissist are often chucked about carelessly, when in fact they are three different personality disorders with three very different causes.

A sociopath has learned to disregard the feelings of others, either through abuse or peer pressure. This condition is common to criminals and to people who are members of a group that pride themselves on ignoring others' feelings or needs (e.g. gangs, some military and police units). It is a curable condition.

A psychopath is born that way and is in part or totally incapable of emotions towards others or being aware of their emotions. Although it is not curable, most psychopaths lead fairly normal lives.

Johnson (along with almost all other leaders of political parties) is a narcissist. We used to call this condition 'having an inferiority complex'. It is a fear of one's own shortcomings and a fear of being found out. Lying becomes second nature to the narcissist and they will even lie about trivia such as where they bought bread that morning. They lie about every aspect of their lives and the lives or those around them, inventing events and/or conditions to diminish others in that process we call gaslighting (from the film 'Gaslight').

The narcissist is very often the spoilt child who received every toy and advantage, but little love. Although the condition is eminently curable, it seldom can be, as the narcissist will fight tooth-and-nail to maintain their fictitious world of deception around themselves. Although they can appear very charming, they are dangerous and unpleasant people and are always destructive within any company or organisation. I've had a couple of these people in my company and once we are aware of what they are, they get the bum's rush immediately.

Calling out a narcissist is often dangerous as it brings on a rage attack.
_________________________________________

As for Putin, he seems to suffer from what I would call Mugabe Syndrome, a sort of narcissism squared! After a long time in power, he now believes in his own infallibility and almost divine leadership qualities. People like Hitler, Mugabe and now Putin start to act strangely as if they were quasi-deity and will attack those around them at the slightest signs of dissent. They descend into a mad world of their own invention, supported in their madness by a coterie of enablers.

Thank you. Can Johnson be a narcissistic scoiopath? (Bullngdon club)?

 

[japancool]

Germans colluding with Russians? That always ends well.

You know, the rest of the world is probably looking at Europe and smirking. We're always the ones telling them how to conduct their affairs, we can't even sort our own house out.

 

[Mark T Jones]

A psychopath is born that way and is in part or totally incapable of emotions towards others or being aware of their emotions. Although it is not curable, most psychopaths lead fairly normal lives.

Since we are off topic, one of the charateristics of a psychopath is that they don't yawn when others do.

 

[thetiger2015]

_________________________________________

As for Putin, he seems to suffer from what I would call Mugabe Syndrome, a sort of narcissism squared! After a long time in power, he now believes in his own infallibility and almost divine leadership qualities. People like Hitler, Mugabe and now Putin start to act strangely as if they were quasi-deity and will attack those around them at the slightest signs of dissent. They descend into a mad world of their own invention, supported in their madness by a coterie of enablers.

Putin is in an echo chamber. The worlds media help facilitate this by making him seem almost god like, with world ending power. Putin loves this. It's the strong man image he craves. The ability to crush countries, buildings and people.

That's why sanctions are ineffective, at least in the short term. He uses these sanctions as a tool to get more out of his military. To fight for the freedom of Russia and its people. In reality, lots of Russians are struggling to live.

The problem we have in the west, is that we have no leaders with any real voice or assertiveness. No matter the politics, Obama was able to bring people to the table. He wasn't perfect, he didn't achieve a great deal but on the world stage, he was a great orator. People respected his ability to speak passionately and precisely.

We have a bumbling oaf, the US has a guy who laughs at his own feet every morning. This is bad. Very bad. We have nobody who is respected on the world stage.

 

[thetiger2015]

Germans colluding with Russians? That always ends well.

You know, the rest of the world is probably looking at Europe and smirking. We're always the ones telling them how to conduct their affairs, we can't even sort our own house out.

I think it's because the influence of Russia and China now stretches far in to western governments. They have people, they have contacts with influence. Previously, they have been able to observe but not influence. They could spy but not impact policy to any great degree. Now, it seems like they have people in various positions within governments that are able to veto decisions.

This all comes from having career politicians. They have no long term aspirations for their countries, they just want to be in the newspapers and on TV every day. No substance. No direction. No morals. Just shells of people that repeat scripts, even when faced with facts that say the opposite. These people are the danger, they are too easy to influence and have no understanding of balanced diplomacy, stick and carrot etc.

 

[japancool]

the US has a guy who laughs at his own feet every morning.

What do you expect Biden to do? Americans don't want to fight and die for Ukrainians. And, surprise, surprise, without the US, NATO is pretty much powerless.

All of European NATO has about 6000 tanks between them. The Russians have 20,000.

It begs the question though. Our defence budget is around $40 billion, vs Russia's at $47 billion. What have we been spending it on?

For years, the trend in the west has been towards fewer, more expensive units. This conflict is going to show how that doctrine simply doesn't work.

 

[japancool]

This all comes from having career politicians. They have no long term aspirations for their countries, they just want to be in the newspapers and on TV every day. No substance. No direction. No morals. Just shells of people that repeat scripts, even when faced with facts that say the opposite. These people are the danger, they are too easy to influence and have no understanding of balanced diplomacy, stick and carrot etc.

Yes, well, much the same thing was said about Churchill and Chamberlain in their day, and we all saw how that worked out.

 

[WaveJumper]

Tanks are useless when you have superior air power.

 

[japancool]

Tanks are useless when you have superior air power.

The ratio of fighter planes is similar.

 

[thetiger2015]

What do you expect Biden to do? Americans don't want to fight and die for Ukrainians. And, surprise, surprise, without the US, NATO is pretty much powerless.

All of European NATO has about 6000 tanks between them. The Russians have 20,000.

It begs the question though. Our defence budget is around $40 billion, vs Russia's at $47 billion. What have we been spending it on?

For years, the trend in the west has been towards fewer, more expensive units. This conflict is going to show how that doctrine simply doesn't work.

I would of expected some sort of response, a coherent and strong response. Instead, we got hours of nothing really happening and then he just didn't seem to know what was going on. So, either he's not that interested, he doesn't understand the implications or he's complicit.

The US doesn't have to fight Russia directly, they can usually use power projection and careful placement of military units to 'persuade' without the need for direct conflict. However, the US has actually withdrawn from areas of influence. Afghanistan and Iraq for example. These were strategic airbase locations that allowed long range bombers and missile units to apply pressure on Russia and China, it gave the US and allies the ability to deploy to any where across the Middle East and Asia quickly and decisively. Those options are now limited and they've allowed Russia to control Syrian air space, which is unheard of.

Moldova is now in the firing line, apparently there are also military units gathering on the Belarus border with Poland. I don't think they will attack NATO countries, yet but they will now use huge numbers of troops at the border to pressure NATO in to a reaction. That's the key to it. They don't have to attack NATO, they just have to make it look like NATO has attacked them and by taking Ukraine and possibly Moldova, they would have a huge area to work with and draw western countries in to the vacuum they'll create.

 

[WaveJumper]

Drones - each drone ca be controlled from a room in the US they don't even need to put aircraft in the air. each drone can operate if required by itself and a group of tactical drones can all communicate amongst themselves and recognise the targets.

Russia may look like they have a lot of kit but lets not be fooled its mostly old and worn out, Last night I saw they had a tank firing shells and the turret fell off. Yes they will takeover Ukraine probably before this day is out but they going to be in for a very long protracted war on the ground with pockets of resistance fighters everywhere.

Remember the bulk of Russians army is conscripted be interesting to see how long the people back home support this, there's already demonstrations going on throughout the country I have a very sneaky feeling Putin may not have long at the top.

 

[Financial-Modeller]

Ukraine chose not to join NATO in the belief that Putin would leave the tanks outside its border for media and political purposes. NATO is under no obligation to protect Ukraine.

The question is will Putin attempt to push beyond Ukraine? All countries bordering Ukraine (except Moldova) are members of NATO. For reference Russia has a population of 140m with GDP of USD4 trillion. NATO has 950m citizens with GDP of USD42 trillion. Sources below.

Every world leader now knows that Putin cannot be trusted and will invade another country days after saying he will not.

When still in power, Trump tried to withdraw the US from NATO pointing out that a condition of membership of NATO was that each country would spend an agreed percentage of GDP on defence, and that every member except US has reneged on this commitment. The world is paying for Covid and finances are strained, but NATO members are slowly increasing their defence expenditure. The exception is Russia, which largely ignored Covid and is primarily dependent on sales of gas and has USD650bn of reserves held mainly in gold. Two effects of the invasion have been to increase the price of the gold that Russia holds and the energy that it sells! From Putin's point of view, he would never get a boetter opportunity to invade than now!

I suspect he will repeat the MO for Crimea and take Ukraine then cease further moves for a few years until there has been change of leadership in major Western countries. If he doesn't the world could be quite different in 6 months.

Member states of NATO - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Spotlighting The World Factbook as We Bid a Fond Farewell - CIA

www.cia.gov

 

[japancool]

he just didn't seem to know what was going on.

What do you mean he doesn't know what was going on? He's been telling us, accurately, what was going to happen for weeks. He's pressured Germany into dropping Nordstream 2, announced sanctions on Russia, sent additional US troops to Poland.

 

[The Byre]

Thank you. Can Johnson be a narcissistic scoiopath? (Bullngdon club)?

I would imagine so, but I am not a psychiatrist or a psychologist! A collection of narcissistic silly boys edging one another on? Sounds kind of like it to me!

The Bullingdon Club always reminds me of the song 'Uncle Harry' by Noel Coward and the line "where he took to pig-sticking in quite the wrong way!"

Since we are off topic, one of the charateristics of a psychopath is that they don't yawn when others do.

By Jove, you're right Sir! It makes sense when you think about it! The study is Rundle, Brian K., Vanessa R. Vaughn, and Matthew S. Stanford. "Contagious yawning and psychopathy." Personality and Individual Differences 86 (2015): 33-37.

This all comes from having career politicians. They have no long term aspirations for their countries, they just want to be in the newspapers and on TV every day. No substance. No direction. No morals. Just shells of people that repeat scripts, even when faced with facts that say the opposite.

THIS!

I have a very sneaky feeling Putin may not have long at the top.

We live in hope - but Hitler and Mugabe and other looney leaders usually bankrupt their countries completely before they are finished. For Mother Russia, that could take a while! It's a big place!

 

[WaveJumper]

And lets not forget the Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation, and Partnership between Ukraine and the Russian Federation was an agreement between Ukraine and Russia, signed in 1997, which fixed the principle of strategic partnership, the recognition of the inviolability of existing borders, and respect for territorial integrity and mutual understanding blah blah blah

Putin may have been arguing he didn't want them to join NATO and subsequently have NATO on his border but we know that is all crap he wants to reinstate the old empire as his legacy. Well now he's going to have NATO breathing down his neck ......... and some US generals hoping he puts his toe over the line.

I read earlier he's banned British Airways from flying in Russian air space in retaliation for our sanctions some one should tell him its owned by the Spanish ?

 

[Clodbuster]

I can "sort of" see where the issue is, If those break away sectors are primarily of Russian extraction they should have had the option to secede (much as we gave the scots the option) after a verifiable referendum (is that feasible in the area?) This is however absolutely bonkers and probably a pretext.

 

[japancool]

......... and some US generals hoping he puts his toe over the line.

I doubt it. Even the maddest US general wouldn't want to trigger WW3.

It's all very well and good waving the flag and saying we should confront Putin militarily, but when the prospect of nuclear strikes is very real, it doesn't seem such a palatable idea.

On another note, we have a Russian lady working in our office. Everyone is tip-toeing around and doing their best not to mention Ukraine.

 

[japancool]

I looked at the defences for the Baltic states. It's hilarious. The Baltic Air Policing unit consists of 4 planes. Because THAT'S going to deter Putin.

 

[DontAsk]

I can "sort of" see where the issue is, If those break away sectors are primarily of Russian extraction they should have had the option to secede (much as we gave the scots the option) after a verifiable referendum (is that feasible in the area?) This is however absolutely bonkers and probably a pretext.

The problem is there was a policy of populating the Baltic states with ethnic Russians. Now all Putin has to do is manipulate local politics to get a referendum and...

 

[japancool]

It's getting serious now. UEFA has moved the Champions League final away from St. Petersburg.

 

[Chris Ashdown]

Putin gets the largest country in Europe and a vast number of assets if these figures are correct
Quote from another internet poster so have not fact checked it
This is why Ukraine

matters:
It is the second largest country in Europe by area and has a population of over 43 million persons - more than Poland by about 6 million.
Ukraine ranks:
1st in Europe in proven recoverable reserves of uranium ores;
2nd place in Europe and 10th place in the world in terms of titanium ore reserves;
2nd place in the world in terms of explored reserves of manganese ores (2.3 billion tons, or 12% of the world's reserves);
2nd largest iron ore reserves in the world (30 billion tons);
2nd place in Europe in terms of mercury ore reserves;
3rd place in Europe (13th place in the world) in shale gas reserves (22 trillion cubic meters)
4th in the world by the total value of natural resources;
7th place in the world in coal reserves (33.9 billion tons)
Ukraine is an important agricultural country:
1st in Europe in terms of arable land area;
3rd place in the world by the area of black soil (25% of world's volume);
1st place in the world in exports of sunflower and sunflower oil;
2nd place in the world in barley production and 4th place in barley exports;
3rd largest producer and 4th largest exporter of corn in the world;
4th largest producer of potatoes in the world;
5th largest rye producer in the world;
5th place in the world in bee production (75,000 tons);
8th place in the world in wheat exports;
9th place in the world in the production of chicken eggs;
16th place in the world in cheese exports.
Ukraine can meet the food needs of 600 million people.
Ukraine is an important industrialised country:
1st in Europe in ammonia production;
Europe's 2nd’s and the world’s 4th largest natural gas pipeline system;
3rd largest in Europe and 8th largest in the world in terms of installed capacity of nuclear power plants;
3rd place in Europe and 11th in the world in terms of rail network length (21,700 km);
3rd place in the world (after the U.S. and France) in production of locators and locating equipment;
3rd largest iron exporter in the world
4th largest exporter of turbines for nuclear power plants in the world;
4th world's largest manufacturer of rocket launchers;
4th place in the world in clay exports
4th place in the world in titanium exports
8th place in the world in exports of ores and concentrates;
9th place in the world in exports of defence industry products;
10th largest steel producer in the world (32.4 million tons).

What does be also get unrest for years from the locals with Resistance fighters, troops stuck in another country

Whilst the UK and USA brought in restrictions straight away

 

[Chris Ashdown]

Cut off in prime

Whilst the UK and USA brought in restrictions straight away. the EU is still having meetings to decide what action to take and promise a answer by 2025

 

[Opinion87]

We have lost it we just dont have that ferocity in our people anymore . We have depleted our armed forces and there is no appetite in this country for war .

I dont like Boris either but I would be behind him if he showed some metal He always wanted to be a force for good in history . Now here is his chance !

100% agree.

 

[MOIC]

This is likely to be the longest thread in UKBF's history. (Even longer than the Brexit & Covid threads)

Russia, China & Iran are the new Axis.

There have been military, trade, business, financial pacts made between them recently, which (seemingly) have been largely ignored by the West as to the likely future repercussions of this alliance.

You'll not hear of any direct criticism between these 3 countries, as they all seem to be following their own similar agenda . . . . . controlling the areas around them.

The power has definitely shifted away from the West and they have been seen to be completely weak, toothless and disjointed to stand up to any aggression that these 3 countries are likely to show in the coming months and years.

I hope I'm wrong.

 

[SEODEV#338055]

Swift update?

 

[The Byre]

I hope I'm wrong.

You're wrong!

Russians are baffled. Why, they ask, are we fighting our sister country? Soldiers, including their commanders, are also baffled - this was supposed to be a cleaning-up operation. They expected welcoming crowds and little real resistance. After all, this they thought, is just a puppet government, put into place by Western interests. None of this makes sense to them.

The very tactics they used in the beginning spoke of the military leaders expecting to execute a kind of policing action - not all-out bloody warfare. They thought that a few airborne troops surrounding the airfields and tanks on the streets and it would be a case of job-done. Install a new, Moscow-friendly government similar to Belarus and then toddle-off home.

Thousands of Russian dead, planes filled with troops shot out of the sky, tanks in flames - none of that was part of the plan. They are beginning to doubt the wisdom and even the sobriety of their leadership. They thought that they were getting an old-style controlling centralist like Khrushchev or Brezhnev, what they got is turning into Robert Mugabe.

China is distancing itself from Putin. Xi stands for stability, continuity and pragmatic government - not the kind of swivel-eyed lunacy, divorced from the reality, that Putin is now representing! China realised a long time ago that the best way to reclaim Taiwan is to buy it. Military action against Taiwan would hurt China and put an end to its rising prosperity. Unilateral military action confirms people's worst fears and marks you down as a pariah state best avoided.

Senator John McCain once said, "Russia is a gasoline station masquerading as a state."

Strip away all that gasoline and you have a truly vast backward and poor area that is close to being ungovernable.

Of course, there is not one sensible, normal leader anywhere in the West. Canada has a painted monkey. The US has a shuffling, vague, mumbling OAP beholden to the banks. The UK has a man more suited to wearing a red nose and revolving trousers. Germany has just voted in a leader who resembles a post-office clerk who can't. And France has another painted monkey.

Each a gibbering non-entity!

But this troop of jesters, clowns, Harlequins, Pagliacci and Augustes, more suited to appearing at the half-time show at Bertram Mills' Circus than the world stage, is now being asked to step up to the plate and provide something they are completely unsuited for - wisdom and statesman-like leadership.

The first thing they have to realise is that concepts that we may hold dear like freedom and democracy and the dissemination of truth are anathemas to Putin and his acquiescent enablers. It must have dawned on them by now that trying to talk to a lunatic who rambles in an intellectual and political vacuum of his own creation was pointless.

Now these masters of the sound-bite and the greasy pole must put away their whoopee cushions, slap-sticks and fright-wigs and come up with a unified and considered policy that calms things down before war in Ukraine becomes something far, far worse.

 

[Newchodge]

The first thing they have to realise is that concepts that we may hold dear like freedom and democracy and the dissemination of truth are anathemas to Putin and his acquiescent enablers. It must have dawned on them by now that trying to talk to a lunatic who rambles in an intellectual and political vacuum of his own creation was pointless.

Are you sure you have not just described Johnson as well as Putin?

 

[MOIC]

You're wrong!

I don't think I'm wrong with regards to the fact that the power has shifted away from the West and they have been seen to be completely weak, toothless and disjointed to stand up to any aggression that Russia & China are likely to show in the coming months and years. Russia, China & Iran are cosying up to each other . . . . and you have to ask yourself why? They all need each other's support, and they're getting it.

Now these masters of the sound-bite and the greasy pole must put away their whoopee cushions, slap-sticks and fright-wigs and come up with a unified and considered policy that calms things down before war in Ukraine becomes something far, far worse.

What do you imagine that policy is likely to be?

 

[japancool]

Are you sure you have not just described Johnson as well as Putin?

Well, the UK was one of the first countries to send weapons ("lethal aid") to the Ukrainians, one of the first to slap sanctions on the Russians and is pushing for them to be excluded from SWIFT.

He didn't sit at a table with Putin, grinning while being duped by the Russian leader.

 

[japancool]

What do you imagine that policy is likely to be?

The best policy right now seems to be, arm the Ukrainians with anti-tank and anti-air weapons, and hope Ukraine turns into a new Afghanistan for the Russians. The more bodies get flown back to Russia, the more Putin might think this is a bad idea and withdraw.

Of course, he might decide to go all-out and make Chernobyl look like a nice sunny day.

 

[Newchodge]

Well, the UK was one of the first countries to send weapons ("lethal aid") to the Ukrainians, one of the first to slap sanctions on the Russians and is pushing for them to be excluded from SWIFT.

He didn't sit at a table with Putin, grinning while being duped by the Russian leader.

My response and yours are not incompatable

 

[japancool]

My response and yours are not incompatable

Johnson's responses are hardly the actions of a lunatic.

 

[fisicx]

Swift update?

Ukraine conflict: What is Swift and why is banning Russia so significant?

More Russian banks are being banned from the Swift financial network but what impact will this have?

www.bbc.co.uk

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/25/europe-swift-russia-cutoff/

 

[MOIC]

The best policy right now seems to be, arm the Ukrainians with anti-tank and anti-air weapons, and hope Ukraine turns into a new Afghanistan for the Russians. The more bodies get flown back to Russia, the more Putin might think this is a bad idea and withdraw.

Of course, he might decide to go all-out and make Chernobyl look like a nice sunny day.

Who will arm them?

Last I heard Germany was sending over 5000 helmets and UK & US sending a few thousand troops to neighboring countries.

Afghanistan was a completely different situation, landscape, enemy………

Feel sorry for the Ukrainians. They’re on their own. The West have let them down….badly.

West have no teeth!

 

[The Byre]

I don't think I'm wrong with regards to the fact that the power has shifted away from the West and they have been seen to be completely weak, toothless and disjointed to stand up to any aggression that Russia & China are likely to show in the coming months and years.

Politically, yes - but economically, the West is unbelievably powerful when compared to Russia or even China.

Yes, the West imports oil and gas from Russia and manufactured goods from China, but it does so not because it cannot get those things within the West, but because they are cheaper and the Green lobby refuses to get off its high horse and realise that we are still decades away from no longer having to burn fossil fuels.

What do you imagine that policy is likely to be?

I know what my policy would be - embroil Russia in their own private hell. Give them their own Vietnam. Their own Afghanistan (again!) That means keeping up a constant supply of weapons to Ukraine and providing them with other support and isolating Russia more and more.

It also (long-term) means licensing oil fields in the US, the Gulf of Mexico and the North Sea and anywhere else where oil and gas can be found. We buy oil and gas from Russia because we don't want to drive milk-floats, we don't want to work from home and we don't want to dam the Severn Estuary for massive hydroelectric baseload or even drill for oil and gas in the North Sea - but we still want cheap fuel from Russia and the Middle East in the meantime.

The one thing many seem to forget is food. Ukraine is one of the main bread-baskets of Europe. Take that away and you've got a massive retail inflation problem. Everything always boils down to economics in the end!

 

[fisicx]

Back when I was serving in Germany during the Cold War we used to get a regular magazine called Threat. In it was lots of info on USSR kit and how to regognise them if they ever crossed the border.

They also used to have articles on tactics and how they would send a spearhead force. This spear head force was bigger than the whole British Army of the Rhine. Behind the spearhead was the major force. The chances of survival for any of us was slim.

Except...

Russian military equipment was badly maintained. They may have had thousands of tanks but most would break down or they would be constantly robbing parts to keep aircraft flying. I doubt things have changed much. Maintaining equipment is expensive and time consuming. It's quite probable the Russians will start running out of spares very soon. Logistics is what kills off most conflicts. If you cant supply the troops at the front they can't win a war.

 

[fisicx]

ARRSE beats UKBF by about 1000 pages:

War in Ukraine

Just picked this OSInt up, may be nothing or something about to happen? https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/russian-forces-begin-massing-on-border-with-ukraine/

www.arrse.co.uk

 

[MOIC]

I know what my policy would be - embroil Russia in their own private hell. Give them their own Vietnam. Their own Afghanistan (again!) That means keeping up a constant supply of weapons to Ukraine and providing them with other support and isolating Russia more and more.

Wishful thinking

It also (long-term) means licensing oil fields in the US, the Gulf of Mexico and the North Sea and anywhere else where oil and gas can be found.

That’s VERY long term!

The one thing many seem to forget is food. Ukraine is one of the main bread-baskets of Europe.

And Russia will soon be in control of that too.

It doesn’t look good, does it?

 

[MBE2017]

The most the Western powers can do in reality is a TOTAL embargo on all Russian goods and services, but I doubt they would even do that.

One thing remains constant, humans never learn from history, we are about to make all the same mistakes yet again.