Was Sweden right after all ?

[Interestedobserver]

The goal posts keep moving because the problems do not stay the same.
Be far more worried about governments sticking to plans despite changes in circumstances.

That's far too complicated for Justin to get his head round

He wants the existing vaccines to make Covid and all its variants to go away and the world back to normal by March

Simple as that

If only it were going to be that easy

 

[Mr D]

That's far too complicated for Justin to get his head round

He wants the existing vaccines to make Covid and all its variants to go away and the world back to normal by March

Simple as that

If only it were going to be that easy

Lots of people want nice easy solutions to problems.

Homeless? Provide a house for them.
Government not got enough money? Get businesses to pay their fair share of taxes.
Diabetes? Put all fat people on a diet.
Flooding? Build flood defences.
Controversial road to be built? Cancel it.

Nice, easy solutions. Can be totally wrong but that is not important to those people.

They want the world as they wish it. Not the messy and sometimes quickly changing problems requiring dozens of solutions or the chaotic world that can have additional problems caused by them...
The real world is as it is, not as we would like it.

 

[philipthechilip]

The goal posts keep moving because the problems do not stay the same.
Be far more worried about governments sticking to plans despite changes in circumstances.

Should we not be entertaining the idea that the government and their scientists, are not infallible, and that their approach might not be perfect.

The government has been wrong on many things before - and does not always have our best interests in mind with every policy or decision.

Shouldn't this be a time where we demand more from our government, and stand together to protect our rights and civil liberties?

 

[Interestedobserver]

Should we not be entertaining the idea that the government and their scientists, are not infallible, and that their approach might not be perfect.

The government has been wrong on many things before - and does not always have our best interests in mind with every policy or decision.

Shouldn't this be a time where we demand more from our government, and stand together to protect our rights and civil liberties?

The ideas you yourself have put forward to end lockdowns earlier in the other thread are totally illogical and flawed

But you then sit on your keyboard and question scientists and governments?

Easy to be an armchair critic when you aren't having to be held accountable for your own flawed and ill thought out solutions

Leave it to the experts Philip

 

[Mr D]

Should we not be entertaining the idea that the government and their scientists, are not infallible, and that their approach might not be perfect.

The government has been wrong on many things before - and does not always have our best interests in mind with every policy or decision.

Shouldn't this be a time where we demand more from our government, and stand together to protect our rights and civil liberties?

Sure. If you can use the same data and come up with a better plan then implement it or provide it to government to implement.
So far most plans appear to make things worse that people have come up with, usually along the line of figures are down from the peak so remove lockdown now.

What civil liberties and rights will you demand when the NHS cannot take you because they are full? What rights will you demand if you are in a road accident and there are no ambulances? What civil liberties will you stand on when you go abroad and some other country sticks you in quarantine?

Or are you demanding more from government by way of extending lockdown to end of the year to save even more lives? Though at considerable opportunity cost.

 

[philipthechilip]

The ideas you yourself have put forward to end lockdowns earlier in the other thread are totally illogical and flawed

But you then sit on your keyboard and question scientists and governments?

Easy to be an armchair critic when you aren't having to be held accountable for your own flawed and ill thought out solutions

Leave it to the experts Philip

So you think that building new hospitals and expanding the NHS (which is something that needs to happen even without covid) is illogical and flawed?

 

[philipthechilip]

Sure. If you can use the same data and come up with a better plan then implement it or provide it to government to implement.
So far most plans appear to make things worse that people have come up with, usually along the line of figures are down from the peak so remove lockdown now.

What civil liberties and rights will you demand when the NHS cannot take you because they are full? What rights will you demand if you are in a road accident and there are no ambulances? What civil liberties will you stand on when you go abroad and some other country sticks you in quarantine?

Or are you demanding more from government by way of extending lockdown to end of the year to save even more lives? Though at considerable opportunity cost.

The current solution is not working - can we agree on that?

Instead of being reactive (lockdowns) we need a good long term solution, and building out the apparatus to deal with this and any future viruses is a good long term solution.

 

[Mr D]

So you think that building new hospitals and expanding the NHS (which is something that needs to happen even without covid) is illogical and flawed?

Both of which would take considerable time - years even.
Time to train even a doctor is considerable. Time to train a consultant is longer.

 

[Mr D]

The current solution is not working - can we agree on that?

Instead of being reactive (lockdowns) we need a good long term solution, and building out the apparatus to deal with this and any future viruses is a good long term solution.

Sorry? Why is current system not working?
So far it appears to be the only one that does, albeit at a massive cost.

The country will not accept building and maintaining a bigger stocking buildings and staff simply to wait for the next once in a century event. Be incredibly wasteful.
We have one massive drain on the economy already, we get another only by doubling vat and increasing basic rate of tax to 50 percent.
Want all your bills to go up considerably simply to have more staff trained and bored?

 

[Interestedobserver]

So you think that building new hospitals and expanding the NHS (which is something that needs to happen even without covid) is illogical and flawed?

Yes seeing as that's your so called alternative to the current lockdowns

Absolutely ridiculous solution

And you are the one who wants lockdowns to end asap?

And is criticising decisions made by scientists and Governments

You talk like you know better but you suggest an alternative that would literally take 2 to 5 years to help us?

Lol

Armchair critic with no idea whatsoever

 

[Annoying Donkey]

Both of which would take considerable time - years even.
Time to train even a doctor is considerable. Time to train a consultant is longer.

Come on! How hard can it be?
I've got me black and decker and my hacksaw. Offering specials on brain surgery, this week only...

 

[Mr D]

Come on! How hard can it be?
I've got me black and decker and my hacksaw. Offering specials on brain surgery, this week only...

I'm sure you can open up a head.
And I can stitch it together. Its the bit in between that would stump us.

 

[Justin Smith]

Sorry? Why is current system not working?
So far it appears to be the only one that does, albeit at a massive cost.

To paraphrase someone or other : "You cannot be serious !"

 

[Mr D]

To paraphrase someone or other : "You cannot be serious !"

Care to name another method of successfully reducing infection, hospitalisation and death that has been used in the last 12 months in the UK?

 

[Justin Smith]

The country will not accept building and maintaining a bigger stocking buildings and staff simply to wait for the next once in a century event. Be incredibly wasteful.
We have one massive drain on the economy already, we get another only by doubling vat and increasing basic rate of tax to 50 percent.
Want all your bills to go up considerably simply to have more staff trained and bored?

It wouldn't of it was implemented wisely.
Staff :
Train a certain proportion of staff to do two jobs, and pay them extra for their extra skills to make it worthwhile for them to do so. E.g. a physiotherapist could also be trained up to be an intensive care nurse in respiratory ailments. She or he would spend 90% of their time as a physio, and 10% as a respiratory intensive care nurse.

Buildings :
Most buildings can be used for other things, and obviously should be.

All this would cost more, but not that much more, and certainly less than the tens of Billions we're spending now. More to the point, relatively speaking, Covid isn't actually that serious, it only kills 1 in 200 and it is indiscriminate (the latter is even more significant than the former). The next one may kill 1 in 50 and really be indiscriminate.....

 

[Justin Smith]

Care to name another method of successfully reducing infection, hospitalisation and death that has been used in the last 12 months in the UK?

We've been through this 100s of time, I cannot be arsed to do it all again. Basically it would involve moving the balance between risk of death and getting on with life.

 

[Mr D]

It wouldn't of it was implemented wisely.
Staff :
Train a certain proportion of staff to do two jobs, and pay them extra for their extra skills to make it worthwhile for them to do so. E.g. a physiotherapist could also be trained up to be an intensive care nurse in respiratory ailments. She or he would spend 90% of their time as a physio, and 10% as a respiratory intensive care nurse.

Buildings :
Most buildings can be used for other things, and obviously should be.

All this would cost more, but not that much more, and certainly less than the tens of Billions we're spending now. More to the point, relatively speaking, Covid isn't actually that serious, it only kills 1 in 200 and it is indiscriminate (the latter is even more significant than the former). The next one may kill 1 in 50 and really be indiscriminate.....

So dual very different jobs - with again standing around bored for a chunk of the time.

Most buildings used for other things? Like what?
Very large and expensive community centers? Indoor market warrens? Homeless housing in dormitories?

Cost considerably more - and take years. Will you pay double the taxes you are now in order to fund it?

 

[Mr D]

We've been through this 100s of time, I cannot be arsed to do it all again. Basically it would involve moving the balance between risk of death and getting on with life.

So in other words, no.

Thanks, that is all you had to say, a two letter word.

 

[Interestedobserver]

We've been through this 100s of time, I cannot be arsed to do it all again. Basically it would involve moving the balance between risk of death and getting on with life.

That's what they've been doing ever since Covid started over here. On a weekly basis.

The people making the decisions are far more intelligent than you and I. And actually IMO are doing well and making good progress.

Let the experts get on with it. And stop whining like a spoilt kid because you personally aren't getting to do what you personally want to do.

Youve shown zero compassion for anybody but yourself in the last 6 months plus.

Fake compassion about poverty stricken people dying because of lockdown. You couldn't care less about anybody else but yourself. You've shown that in your posts.

Tell me where these poverty stricken people are dying because of lockdown please. Show us one of your graphs to prove it.

 

[Paulzx]

So we're saying that the fact the Swede's are reputed to be less sociable hs stopped the spread of a highly infectious virus and, in fact, worked as well as a (temporary) lockdown ? Doesn't sound realistic to me, unless of course, the virus actually isn't anywhere near as infectious as we've been told which I can believe actually, since most of what we have been told has been wrong anyway. Where do you want me to start ?
How about :
"This virus is indiscriminate".
Or
"We'll have a second wave if we unwind the lockdown or reopen schools".
What actually happened is the death rate kept dropping as fast as it did before....

The government have done a very effective job of scaring the population (those who haven't actually researched it anyway) and it's now coming back to bite them on the bum as they try to get the country back to work, just as I said it would.

But, to an extent, it's irrelevant anyway, the Swede's graph line is very similar to ours and Belgium's, and every other country which has had deep exposure to the virus.
I'm still sticking to my theory that the lockdown / social distancing made little difference to the death rate, particularly if all the deaths caused by it are subtracted.
We'll see who is right

I totally agree Justin, Sweden's experts always said from the beginning that when you look back at this, you will see similar death stats but the impact will be less for Sweden. That's because they based their strategy on virus data and not simulations. The UK based theirs on a simulation from Imperial college London. That simulation has proved to be wrong.

Also remember the mental health impact from this. Lock downs have never been proven to work against a virus, but they are having an effect elsewhere. The latest estimate in the UK is that as many as 500,000 could die as a result of the lock down itself! Suicide is at something like a 30 year high

 

[Interestedobserver]

I totally agree Justin, Sweden's experts always said from the beginning that when you look back at this, you will see similar death stats but the impact will be less for Sweden. That's because they based their strategy on virus data and not simulations. The UK based theirs on a simulation from Imperial college London. That simulation has proved to be wrong.

Also remember the mental health impact from this. Lock downs have never been proven to work against a virus, but they are having an effect elsewhere. The latest estimate in the UK is that as many as 500,000 could die as a result of the lock down itself! Suicide is at something like a 30 year high

Can you post the link about 500,000 people dying from lockdown please. And the increase in suicides.

 

[John Hemming]

Its not only Sweden that avoided lockdowns. However, this is a form of religious debate where the facts don't matter that much. A bit like brexit, but in No Trumps.

 

[Justin Smith]

Was Sweden right after all ? :

 

[Justin Smith]

Can you post the link about 500,000 people dying from lockdown please. And the increase in suicides.

The 500,000 figure may take years to come about.
Surely there is little doubt these draconian suppression measures will lead to an increase in suicides, are you saying they won't ? If you are can we quote you on it ?

 

[Interestedobserver]

The 500,000 figure may take years to come about.
Surely there is little doubt these draconian suppression measures will lead to an increase in suicides, are you saying they won't ? If you are can we quote you on it ?

Finally, we are getting to the truth

So just to confirm you do agree so far there has been no noticeable increase in suicides because of lockdown despite the draconian measures we face (your words). But you are assuming there will be an increase in suicides in the future when these draconian measures have gone?

So can we now also confirm that so far there has been no noticeable increase in people in the UK dying from poverty due to lockdown?

 

[Interestedobserver]

On the issue of Covid alone very obviously Sweden. New Zealand has to cut themselves off from the world until there is a "solution" to the issue. However, NZ has some nice places and I don't speak Scandinavian languages particularly well.

Where would you choose now John?

We were promised the fact Sweden had herd immunity and that they wouldn't face a second wave

Since then they've had a second and third wave

And right now they have the highest death rate from Covid in Western Europe and are under pressure to bring in even stricter lockdowns than the ones they already reluctantly had to bring in once they had to accept their approach had failed.

And yet you've criticised our Government's handling of this from the start and you heavily favoured Swedens?

New Zealand are still effectively cut off from the rest of the world

We have a roadmap out of this in place that's started today as it happens

Sweden don't have a roadmap out of lockdown. In fact they are under huge pressure to have stricter lockdowns

So where would you rather be now?

Sweden, New Zealand or perhaps the answer is the UK?

Looks like we are doing better than most right now and very much ahead of the Covid game ?

Doesn't it?

 

[Annoying Donkey]

New Zealand are still effectively cut off from the rest of the world

Hardly. They let Russel Brand in...

 

[Newchodge]

Looks like we are doing better than most right now and very much ahead of the Covid game ?

Doesn't it?

It rather depends on what you mean by right now and if you are prepared to ignore the 100,000 deaths that have already taken place in this country.

 

[Interestedobserver]

It rather depends on what you mean by right now and if you are prepared to ignore the 100,000 deaths that have already taken place in this country.

I'm looking at us having a roadmap forward having had to deal with a more infectious variant than the rest of the world already

Whereas other countries now in a panic about having to deal with the UK variant as it becomes dominant in their country and having to bring in stricter lockdowns at the exact same time we are releasing them

I'm not counting any chickens yet as I'm aware we could face new more serious variants ourselves but we've not only faced and started to bring down one of the most serious variants already but we are ahead of the game on vaccinations at the same time with all of Europe

So we can also now discuss New Zealand and Australia who have literally had to cut themselves off from the rest of the world to be able to do stuff but at some stage will have to open up and deal with something we've already dealt with

I guess they could remained closed off ongoing or long term benefit from the vaccines that others around the world have created to counter the various variants

I say it again though

Right now - where would you rather be?

Sweden?

UK?

New Zealand?

USA?

Brazil?

Some will say New Zealand I'm sure - but longer term they themselves have a lot of work to do.

I guess we just have to keep an eye on the SA and Brazil variants and any new ones that may catch us out.

 

[Interestedobserver]

Its not only Sweden that avoided lockdowns. However, this is a form of religious debate where the facts don't matter that much. A bit like brexit, but in No Trumps.

People out in the streets in Sweden now protesting about the lockdowns that are now belatedly having to be imposed

Bit late really:

Sweden has seen over 13,000 deaths in the pandemic, while its Nordic neighbors Denmark, Norway and Finland, who chose to impose coronavirus restrictions much earlier, have a combined COVID-19 death toll of 3,777.

 

[gpietersz]

On the other hand Sweden has a lower covid fataility rate than a lot of European countries that did impose lockdowns.

The Swedish rules barely feel like lockdown compared to other countries: shorter opening hours for pubs and restaurants, restrictions on the number of people in shops and gym, no more than 8 people at a public event, etc. Not really comparable to having everything but essential shops closed, no private social events events for even small numbers of people, schools and universities closed and so on.

 

[Interestedobserver]

On the other hand Sweden has a lower covid fataility rate than a lot of European countries that did impose lockdowns.

The Swedish rules barely feel like lockdown compared to other countries: shorter opening hours for pubs and restaurants, restrictions on the number of people in shops and gym, no more than 8 people at a public event, etc. Not really comparable to having everything but essential shops closed, no private social events events for even small numbers of people, schools and universities closed and so on.

I can't let you get away with this?

Sweden has now got the highest infection rate in Western Europe and their Govt warning of tougher restrictions on their way whilst people are already on the streets protesting about the existing restrictions that the Govt reluctantly had to bring in ?

Would you honestly want us to swap places with Sweden right now Gpietersz?

Or do you accept we are in a much more positive situation that the Swedes ?

Be honest

We are doing very well in comparison to the whole of the rest of Europe right now. Certainly we have a much brighter next few months than Sweden ahead of us.

Don't we?

What am I missing?

What are they doing better than us ?

 

[gpietersz]

We are now doing better than anyone else in Europe because of our vaccine rollout so i would not swap places at this point.

If I was in any other (than the UK and Sweden) European country I would swap places with Sweden. I would also have quite happily swapped places last year.

What are they doing better than us ?

Their cumulative death rate per capita from covid is lower than ours, and even a the third wave is unlikely to close the difference.

If Sweden had vaccine procurement like hours instead of being stuck with the EU mess they would be doing better than us.

 

[Interestedobserver]

We are now doing better than anyone else in Europe because of our vaccine rollout so i would not swap places at this point.

If I was in any other (than the UK and Sweden) European country I would swap places with Sweden. I would also have quite happily swapped places last year.




Their cummalative death rate per capita from covid is lower than ours, and even a the third wave.

They are now starting to have to face the UK variant which we have already controlled and suppressed though. And are struggling and panicking.

As it's 50 per cent more infectious than what they've faced before?

You are missing the BIG point that our lockdown restrictions have had to deal with a far more infectious variant than the rest of Europe was facing.

But we've controlled it. All over Europe they are now seeing their existing lockdown measures ineffective.

So you have to factor in our better lockdown strategies and our better vaccination rollout combined together.

We lead the rest follow.

You aren't comparing the same variants. We faced a worst Covid variant than they did.

Only now are they and the rest of Europe facing our variant.

What am I missing?

 

[gpietersz]

So you have to factor in our better lockdown strategies and our better vaccination rollout combined together.

The rest of Europe had the "better" lockdown strategies and did no better. Why did so many countries that had strict lockdowns did worse than Sweden?

 

[Interestedobserver]

The rest of Europe had the "better" lockdown strategies and did no better. Why did so many countries that had strict lockdowns did worse than Sweden?

You can't keep avoiding my questions by asking a new question?

Simple answers now please

We are talking about the current situation with Covid in Europe

We have controlled the UK variant which is acknowledged by the WHO as being 50 per cent more infectious and also producing more hospitalizations than the previous variants Europe faced

The other Euro countries very much including Sweden are now having real problems suppressing the UK variant and having to re-impose lockdowns

At the same time we are ahead of Europe with vaccine rollout

Please accept that we are well ahead of Europe both on suppressing Covid AND on vaccinating against it

We are leading the way in Europe by some distance right now

Do you agree Gpietersz?

Please don't answer with a question. Just answer yes or no

If you want to ask me something else do it after youve agreed with me

Or else tell me what I have got wrong above please?

 

[Interestedobserver]

The rest of Europe had the "better" lockdown strategies and did no better. Why did so many countries that had strict lockdowns did worse than Sweden?

Not sure they had better lockdowns at all. They were facing a much weaker variant so didn't have to suppress as much as we did and could end earlier etc.

 

[gpietersz]

We are talking about the current situation with Covid in Europe

I see the problem. I am discussing the question posed in this thread which is "Was Sweden right after all ?" whereas you are discussing whether the UK is doing better than the rest of Europe.

 

[Interestedobserver]

I see the problem. I am discussing the question posed in this thread which is "Was Sweden right after all ?" whereas you are discussing whether the UK is doing better than the rest of Europe.

So you do agree we are doing better than Sweden AND the rest of Europe

Much much stronger position both in terms of control of the current virus and the new dominant UK variant and in terms of vaccination rollout

Agreed?

We are all happy as we can be right now over here aren't we?

This is another thread that can be closed by the mods isn't it?

Sweden wasn't right after all?

 

[gpietersz]

I think Sweden was right with regard to lockdowns, and the UK was right with regard to vaccination.

I do not know how the Swedes managed to control covid fairly typically well for Europe without lockdowns, but they did it.

I think the fair comparator for Sweden is the rest of the EU, not the UK, and on that basis they look like they were right.