As time goes by - better or worse?

[Mr D]

OK government have announced plans to remove lockdown elements. Shops will reopen, larger gatherings take place, festivals, weddings, funerals etc.

I know a number of suppliers are planning for what happens once the people can mingle more, shop more etc.

Ignore the virus - plenty of arguments and threads for that. What are people's views of Spring, Summer and beyond as far as business goes? Are businesses planning for increased consumer demand or tightening of belts?
Should we be planning for a 2nd Christmas? Or a massive benefits bill that vastly restricts spending?

Personally I'm looking forward to 30% of my stock becoming viable again. Lack of group gatherings hurt.

Primark appear to be looking at a better period to come. Primark readies for big spending after lockdowns end | Licensing Source
Are they right or wrong?

 

[JEREMY HAWKE]

We will be vaccinated and managing the situation with a really good chance of getting up and running this year . This will be seriously held back by the rest of the world being unable to keep up with us . Global recovery will not materialize unless the rest of Europe and the US vaccinate quicker.

 

[mattk]

My personal opinion is that people will have become ingrained in their new habits. For example, I asked my wife about going out for a fancy meal once restrictions are lifted. We eventually agreed that we'd rather have a nice takeaway which we can eat at our leisure, with our own (nice) booze and not have to worry about getting home, than go out for a meal.

We've invested in a running machine and exercise bike and have both been exercising daily at home during lockdown. I can see no reason why we'd want the cost or inconvenience of a gym membership.

We shop exclusively online, Ocado for food, Amazon for pretty much everything else.

And again, completely personal perspective, I've been using the savings in travel, food etc. to max out my pension contributions, so I don't have a war chest of Covid savings to go wild with.

One final comment, I've been speaking to several large companies over the past few months and working from home looks set to stay, which will undoubtedly have an impact on town centres and commercial property demands.

Therefore, in conclusion, I'm not as optimistic as many commentators.

 

[MarkOnline]

I think Primark are extremely clever at what they do and the market they serve. I think their predictions for their own business will be very near to the mark. I think they know they are in a fantastic position to further exploit the gaps which have opened up to them in their marketplace.

 

[WaveJumper]

Well fashion on the high street has been so over saturated for many years the race for larger units etc etc with most selling to the same customer demographic change was already taking place but the COVID outbreak has speeded this along. As we all try to get back to some normality perhaps our attention will be focused back on the issues Brexit has brought with it like major issues with supply chains and the down grading of finical services in the capital all of which seems to have disappeared into the background at the moment.

 

[Guy Incognito]

Personally, I am desperate to get to as many bars, restaurants and pubs as I can as soon as I can. I also want to travel much more given we've been banned from doing so.

Business wise it would be very good for us, as an e-commerce business, if the trend towards online shopping continued. The pandemic accelerated it, but the trend was already clear.

 

[Lucan Unlordly]

Being loosely involved with and reliant on events, my business won't return until consumer confidence does. I'm optimistic but were a tick list drawn up as to the potential negatives faced there wouldn't be an empty box.

One of the issues may be availability of venues. Wedding receptions, the majority of which took place at weekends are now being booked across the week. Social clubs and community centres that host events from musical entertainment, political gatherings and Bridge clubs to end of year celebrations may be open to the highest bidder.

The impact of working from home and the longer term practicalities won't be known for some time and a glimmer of hope in a world that's become heavily reliant on weekend events as organisers and supporters no longer do weekday evenings due to travelling, early starts etc., is that homeworkers may look to turnout midweek?

 

[JEREMY HAWKE]

asked my wife about going out for a fancy meal once restrictions are lifted. We eventually agreed that we'd rather have a nice takeaway which we can eat at our leisure, with our own (nice) booze and not have to worry about getting home, than go out for a meal.

We've invested in a running machine and exercise bike and have both been exercising daily at home during lockdown. I can see no reason why we'd want the cost or inconvenience of a gym membership.

I want expensive eating houses bright city lights and a big old heavy bag in the gym

Dont be like that Matt get out there and spend some money

 

[Mark T Jones]

HSBC have identified a ready-to-spend cash mountain of £14 billion

That is saved money that consumers have no interest in putting aside, they actively want to spend it

Couple that with likely negative interest rates and we are in for a spending spree the likes of which we have never seen

My guess it will largely be on immediate stuff like like holidays, eating out etc and will probably escalate to more luxury items such as new cars


That said, there will definitely be winners and losers - in my customer base it is universally predicted that city centres will continue to suffer whilst rural and coastal areas will boom

After the party will come the hangover. As a guess the party will last about 18 months

 

[Interestedobserver]

I fear for the big cities.

Going to be loads of empty hotels, shops, bars, cafes, restaurants, pubs and buildings for several years to come

Many people will work from home ongoing or far more often

Way more meetings by zoom as everyone has got used to it

Far less business travel in the future

I think big events will be some way off

Some businesses will do well, many will do worse

 

[Mark T Jones]

On the plus side, when travel opens up it will be a great to to take city breaks

 

[Interestedobserver]

On the plus side, when travel opens up it will be a great to to take city breaks

Will be some good deals to be had in cities for sure

 

[Mr D]

HSBC have identified a ready-to-spend cash mountain of £14 billion

That is saved money that consumers have no interest in putting aside, they actively want to spend it

Couple that with likely negative interest rates and we are in for a spending spree the likes of which we have never seen

My guess it will largely be on immediate stuff like like holidays, eating out etc and will probably escalate to more luxury items such as new cars


That said, there will definitely be winners and losers - in my customer base it is universally predicted that city centres will continue to suffer whilst rural and coastal areas will boom

After the party will come the hangover. As a guess the party will last about 18 months

True, always winners and losers.
By the sound of it there are also a lot of used cars being stockpiled - possibly getting a newer motor cheap pretty soon?

A friend of mine works on the buses - they've been discussing reducing frequency at what was called rush hour - so a bus every 40 minutes or hour rather than every 20 minutes.
Knock on effects for commuters - I'd look at moving from bus to train.

 

[Mark T Jones]

True, always winners and losers.
By the sound of it there are also a lot of used cars being stockpiled - possibly getting a newer motor cheap pretty soon?

A friend of mine works on the buses - they've been discussing reducing frequency at what was called rush hour - so a bus every 40 minutes or hour rather than every 20 minutes.
Knock on effects for commuters - I'd look at moving from bus to train.

Same for trains. Which might mean similar traffic but more spread out - which would be great

 

[Interestedobserver]

True, always winners and losers.
By the sound of it there are also a lot of used cars being stockpiled - possibly getting a newer motor cheap pretty soon?

A friend of mine works on the buses - they've been discussing reducing frequency at what was called rush hour - so a bus every 40 minutes or hour rather than every 20 minutes.
Knock on effects for commuters - I'd look at moving from bus to train.

Trains are looking at reducing frequency as well - was on BBC News website this morning

Get a bike!

 

[Interestedobserver]

Same for trains. Which might mean similar traffic but more spread out - which would be great

Sorry beat me to it

 

[Mr D]

Trains are looking at reducing frequency as well - was on BBC News website this morning

Get a bike!

LOL - cannot ride one.
A 4 wheeled powered one could be used - but that is a quad. No benefit to taking one of them to work.

 

[tony84]

I was on a conference last month (zoom). One of the talkers put a link onto the site and told us all to put in 3 words of things we were looking forward to (I did pub and gym), but the overwhelming "winner" was holidays, followed by the pub.

That combined with the number of people who want to get back to normal makes me think even if we do not get back completely to normal this year, I think a lot of people will go out and spend. I suppose it makes sense, we have all been cooped up for best part of 12 months in some form or another.

I dont know if it will be normal or a little above or below, but I think there will be a big jump from where we now.

Funnily enough I read something on the BBC this morning, about 6m people in the UK are actually better off because of the recession. Typically those who had to travel for work and can now work from home.

 

[karenw80]

Funnily enough I read something on the BBC this morning, about 6m people in the UK are actually better off because of the recession. Typically those who had to travel for work and can now work from home.

Definitely applies to me.
Saving of £40 week in fuel
Saving of 5 hours a week commute
Increase in qulity of life - Priceless

 

[Talay]

Definitely applies to me.
Saving of £40 week in fuel
Saving of 5 hours a week commute
Increase in qulity of life - Priceless

My numbers are some years out of date as it is a long time since I worked but they were:

Fuel - £0 short station commute
Parking - £1200
Season ticket - £8000
Commuting hours - 15 per week

 

[Talay]

My personal opinion is that people will have become ingrained in their new habits. For example, I asked my wife about going out for a fancy meal once restrictions are lifted. We eventually agreed that we'd rather have a nice takeaway which we can eat at our leisure, with our own (nice) booze and not have to worry about getting home, than go out for a meal.

We've invested in a running machine and exercise bike and have both been exercising daily at home during lockdown. I can see no reason why we'd want the cost or inconvenience of a gym membership.

We shop exclusively online, Ocado for food, Amazon for pretty much everything else.

And again, completely personal perspective, I've been using the savings in travel, food etc. to max out my pension contributions, so I don't have a war chest of Covid savings to go wild with.

One final comment, I've been speaking to several large companies over the past few months and working from home looks set to stay, which will undoubtedly have an impact on town centres and commercial property demands.

Therefore, in conclusion, I'm not as optimistic as many commentators.

I concur with you that a reverse of changes made may be tried but that overall, many will be retracted back to those which worked during this last 12 months.

I ordered a take away from a local restaurant last week. Got 20% off as not a weekend. I live 2 minutes away do piping hot and great food. As you say, booze of choice in the fridge and I over ordered as it would do for later or tomorrow so no chance of running out. Clean toilets all the time

Cost was £50 or so. In the restaurant it would have been £60+ then a tip, then we'd have been ordering fairly poor wine at £20 a bottle instead of great stuff at home for less than half that. All in, probably cost half.

Cook yourselves, then reduce that in half again.

 

[Talay]

HSBC have identified a ready-to-spend cash mountain of £14 billion

That is saved money that consumers have no interest in putting aside, they actively want to spend it

Couple that with likely negative interest rates and we are in for a spending spree the likes of which we have never seen

My guess it will largely be on immediate stuff like like holidays, eating out etc and will probably escalate to more luxury items such as new cars

That said, there will definitely be winners and losers - in my customer base it is universally predicted that city centres will continue to suffer whilst rural and coastal areas will boom

After the party will come the hangover. As a guess the party will last about 18 months

I agree on big ticket items and excessive wasteful spending but the services industry is going to lose out massively as there is no upkick from this.

Holidays are the sure fire winner, with as you say, cars and property too. Surely home improvements have been done already but some moves will happen if this stamp duty freeze continues - no need for it really.

City centres are done for.

18 months ? I can't see it lasting that long. Cash may have been saved but job losses are only just going to begin. That will cast a long and dark shadow.

 

[tony84]

I view some things differently.
Years ago I bought a bench press, some weights, a punch bag etc - I have had them for about 10 years. My thought was I would save £30 a month on the gym and for about 4-5 months it was fine. But I was not doing it as often as I knew I could do it later and then later never came.

When lockdown one started I was not too worried about the gym as I had my weights and was happy, 3 weeks in the same thing started to happen and I started to do it less and less.

When I joint the gym, I go and I use it and get my moneys worth.

I think the gym is one of those things that will go back to normal. The people I see in the gym are the same people over and over. You always have your January rush, but I feel like those are the people the gyms will lose where as the ones who enjoy it will carry on.

 

[Irontoe]

I keep reading about the death of the high street, it was supposed to die when home shopping first arrived through the publication of the Gratton catalogue, then it was going to die because of the rise of out of town shopping areas, then it was huge supermarkets selling everything under one roof, then the internet.
There’s an awful lot of people that actually like shopping, it’s a social event, they like browsing, stopping for a coffee, meeting their friends, trying things on etc. That’s not going to go away.

Sure, when things reopen they’ll be a few gaps in the high street but they won’t be there long, newer, fresher upstarts will fill them.

 

[SillyBill]

I view some things differently.
Years ago I bought a bench press, some weights, a punch bag etc - I have had them for about 10 years. My thought was I would save £30 a month on the gym and for about 4-5 months it was fine. But I was not doing it as often as I knew I could do it later and then later never came.

When lockdown one started I was not too worried about the gym as I had my weights and was happy, 3 weeks in the same thing started to happen and I started to do it less and less.

When I joint the gym, I go and I use it and get my moneys worth.

I think the gym is one of those things that will go back to normal. The people I see in the gym are the same people over and over. You always have your January rush, but I feel like those are the people the gyms will lose where as the ones who enjoy it will carry on.

Last time out I purposefully signed up to the highest cost gym membership in the local area (fancy spa/gym) so I know I would go, lack of willpower being what it is sometimes. I've had the £20-30 gym memberships and had up to 18 months+ straight runs with zero attendance on the scorecard before I've admitted its not going to happen. Admittedly, this time I did quite fancy an improved experience: chatting with attractive, wealthy, socialites in the jacuzzi post work-out than pumping iron with chav meatheads against a backdrop of a wall of mirrors. I also have the makings of a full gym at home too. Well, its all in the garage loft somewhere I think. Good intentions 'n all. Personally I can't quite afford to put a pool in my house if I am not going to use it, benefit of current place is (when open), I am first and only person in the pool at 6am every day and get 30 mins to myself, a fantastic start to the day in what feels like a private pool..

 

[Mr D]

I agree on big ticket items and excessive wasteful spending but the services industry is going to lose out massively as there is no upkick from this.

Holidays are the sure fire winner, with as you say, cars and property too. Surely home improvements have been done already but some moves will happen if this stamp duty freeze continues - no need for it really.

City centres are done for.

18 months ? I can't see it lasting that long. Cash may have been saved but job losses are only just going to begin. That will cast a long and dark shadow.

Perhaps some will invest in summerhouse / insulated shed in the garden for working partly from home. Currently lots of people have to work from home. Once things let up and they can choose they may well make the current arrangements more permanent. Rather than laptop on coffee table and kids interrupting they go to the home office in the garden.

Or perhaps upgrade a basic desk to a bigger more solid desk. Pointless with temporary arrangement, with more permanent arrangements made then things become cost effective.

 

[mattk]

Sure, when things reopen they’ll be a few gaps in the high street but they won’t be there long, newer, fresher upstarts will fill them.

I think that is wildly optimistic. There were numerous empty units in my local town centre pre-Covid, there are even more now that Debenhams, Topshop/Topman, Argos and Dorothy Perkins have closed during lockdown. The thing I can't get my head around is the rents. Next closed their town centre store over five years ago, but it is still advertised at £100k a year rent.

Previously town centre retail was based on the "greater fool" theory, there was always some fool wanted to open a shop as they had a romantic notion of being a shop keeper or once had a summer job in Tammy Girl. I think we've now reached the point where even the fools have dried up and alternative uses for town centres need to be developed.

 

[WeddingsInWales]

This morning my wife was saying it would be nice to go aboad and look at some volcanoes (because as anyone with young children knows, they are on the school curriculum at moment). I said it was unlikely we would travel this year, but we could probably go to Bridport (our nearest beach). We've not been there for two years now, I said. So the most we are looking forward to is the Jurassic coast (also relevant to the home schooling curriculum). Also a pub and proper Real Ale would be nice. As for weddings, well, that is my main business. Would be nice if they can go ahead in July 2021 as planned by Boris, else I may not be able to afford the long awaited pint at Bridport. I've 197 forward booked weddings. August this year at one point had only 5 weekays left. No Summer weekends left till 2023. I also suspect variants and winter otbreaks may bring in some winter lockdowns, further squeezing a backlog of two years worth of events into the summer months. So 'weekday' events will become necessary to clear a backlog of private events.