If numbers don’t go up.

[Forgot password]

Ah my Orifice in China - of course come in I have a VIP area for you and a office upstairs with your favourite cigars in. Are you after protection money as I have only just opened and it is probably the worst time in history for hospitality please give me some time.

Right that’s two - filling up, good anymore? We are having a rave every Thursday

 

[MOIC]

Can I bring my dog?

 

[gpietersz]

Deadly infectious, unlike anything else experience in the past 100 years.

In the first world.

In a lot of places its just another infectious disease. More people die in India alone from TB alone every year than have died of covid worldwide - and that number is going to rocket because of lockdowns.

 

[MOIC]

Another one . . . . . . .More people die of bla bla bla.

No-one is denying that.

You simply cannot compare this virus with any other disease for speed of infection and speed of death once it attacks the organs. People are dead in a matter of minutes.

ICU's will be blocked and will mean patients with other ailments cannot be treated, compounding the situation further.

 

[simon field]

Dettol please, a pint of.

 

[Forgot password]

Can I bring my dog?

Now I know your not really in China and living in a one bed flat in Peckham as we all know dogs aren’t kept as pets in China.... o actually if you mean to cook and eat yeah that’s cool. May use that as the furlough arms logo on the sign outside.

Now come on I need more customers as the pub is only open this week as back to business next week

DAISY LEAVE HIM ALONE HE’S ONLY A BOT
( bloody staff )

 

[Forgot password]

Dettol please, a pint of.

Simon your in - if it’s good enough for my man trump it’s good enough for you. Welcome .. darts available

 

[MOIC]

Will there be any live Prem games?

I support the team in red.

 

[MOIC]

one bed flat in Peckham

I wish!

It's a bedsit.

In Stoke

No kitchen

Outside toilet

No roof.

Do you do B&B?

 

[Forgot password]

Will there be any live Prem games?

I support the team in red.

Seeming as the pub is closing on Friday then unfortunately not ... have darts though

 

[MOIC]

That's a killer.

I'm staying in my dump in Stoke.

 

[Scalloway]

Edit: Where did he get that match from?!

You're maybe too young to remember when airline seats had ashtrays in the armrests.

 

[MOIC]

You're maybe too young to remember when airline seats had ashtrays in the armrests.

I remember it well!

B.O.A.C

Freddie Laker

Smoking allowed in the back rows.

Yes, a distant memory!

 

[Deleted member 59730]

I remember it well!

B.O.A.C

BEA

 

[MOIC]

Yes!

 

[Interestedobserver]

Another one . . . . . . .More people die of bla bla bla.

No-one is denying that.

You simply cannot compare this virus with any other disease for speed of infection and speed of death once it attacks the organs. People are dead in a matter of minutes.

ICU's will be blocked and will mean patients with other ailments cannot be treated, compounding the situation further.

What I find interesting is that reports claim many know they are about to die and they are able to say goodbye to relatives etc?

I guess at a certain stage there's nothing else can be done to help them

Would normally expect people to be unconscious etc at that stage or unable to communicate?

(I'm sure we can all chat about this in the virtual pub)

 

[Aniela]

protests are allowed

From imperial college, presumably from the team the who produced the now discredited model?

Other researchers have much higher estimates of infection rates:
https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/...-already-been-infected-by-the-covid-19-virus/
https://unherd.com/2020/05/oxford-doubles-down-sunetra-gupta-interview/

and on top of that there is cross-immunity.

Then there is the usual tendency of a virus to evolve to be less dangerous.

Since when has it been discredited?

 

[simon field]

Since when has it been discredited?

Beginning of April

Edit: correction - mid March

 

[Aniela]

Beginning of April

Edit: correction - mid March

Are you talking about that ex-Google employee who called the code out but it was never actually discredited? Or are we thinking/talking about completely different things?

 

[simon field]

Fill ya boots:


https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238186-uks-scientific-advice-on-coronavirus-is-a-cause-for-concern/

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technol...wn-totally-unreliable-buggy-mess-say-experts/

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...essor-Neil-Ferguson-branded-mess-experts.html

https://www.heritage.org/public-hea...uential-covid-19-model-used-justify-lockdowns

 

[gpietersz]

On top of that there have been issues with reproducibility. The attempt to apply the model to Sweden has been the best publicised, but the model is known to produce different results on different runs even when run single threaded with the same inputs.

 

[Aniela]

Fill ya boots:

https://www.newscientist.com/articl...advice-on-coronavirus-is-a-cause-for-concern/
https://www.newscientist.com/articl...advice-on-coronavirus-is-a-cause-for-concern/

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technol...wn-totally-unreliable-buggy-mess-say-experts/

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...essor-Neil-Ferguson-branded-mess-experts.html

https://www.heritage.org/public-hea...uential-covid-19-model-used-justify-lockdowns

Those are all articles that say a lot without actually saying anything.

The code has not been discredited; ever.

There are people saying the code is messy and would not be allowed in a commercial setting but that's rather irrelevant. If it works is what matters. Some people are saying it's not messy either.

It has never actually been discredited in regards to not working.

Last time I checked, they wouldn't actually release the code that was used to run the numbers for COVID-19, so it's impossible to discredit it regardless. The code available is only the updated code.

 

[Aniela]

On top of that there have been issues with reproducibility. The attempt to apply the model to Sweden has been the best publicised, but the model is known to produce different results on different runs even when run single threaded with the same inputs.

Give the rest of the information, rather than part of the information that makes it sound worse than it is.

 

[simon field]

Those are all articles that say a lot without actually saying anything.

The code has not been discredited; ever.

There are people saying the code is messy and would not be allowed in a commercial setting but that's rather irrelevant. If it works is what matters. Some people are saying it's not messy either.

It has never actually been discredited in regards to not working.

Last time I checked, they wouldn't actually release the code that was used to run the numbers for COVID-19, so it's impossible to discredit it regardless. The code available is only the updated code.

Believe whatever you want to believe.

Makes me laugh - as a frightener we keep being told how bad it would be if we took no measures at all - half a million dead. This is used to justify the dithering decisions taken by the UK govt.

What they fail to mention is that it isn’t ‘all or nothing’.

Some measures would’ve likely had just the same effect.

1) Wash your hands (remember that?)

2) Avoid crowds

3) Stay in if you’re coughing

4) Don’t pick your nose

 

[Interestedobserver]

Arizona, Utah and New Mexico all posted rises in new cases of 40% or higher for the week ended June 7, compared with the prior seven days, according to a Reuters analysis. New cases rose in Florida, Arkansas, South Carolina and North Carolina by more than 30% in the past week.

(That's 7 US states where cases have risen 30 per cent plus in the last 7 days)

That's what happens when you start opening things back up

If those figures continue to rise US will have to re-impose their lockdowns. Same thing will happen to UK unless we manage things very very carefully and gradually.

 

[Aniela]

Arizona, Utah and New Mexico all posted rises in new cases of 40% or higher for the week ended June 7, compared with the prior seven days, according to a Reuters analysis. New cases rose in Florida, Arkansas, South Carolina and North Carolina by more than 30% in the past week.

(That's 7 US states where cases have risen 30 per cent plus in the last 7 days)

That's what happens when you start opening things back up

If those figures continue to rise US will have to re-impose their lockdowns. Same thing will happen to UK unless we manage things very very carefully and gradually.

Wouldn't it be deaths that's more important? If there's a 30-40% rise in cases but not a large increase of deaths lockdowns may not be restricted again.

 

[Interestedobserver]

Wouldn't it be deaths that's more important? If there's a 30-40% rise in cases but not a large increase of deaths lockdowns may not be restricted again.

The increase in cases brings increase in admissions to hospitals and in due time the increase in deaths

We've already seen that exact pattern happen once inside every country

This is what they mean when they talk about second wave

And this I what we wanted to avoid as it leads to having to re-impose lockdowns

The way forward is to gradually release lockdowns in a very controlled way so you don't have to re-impose

A few more days of the above and those US states and others will have to start re-imposing lockdown

 

[Jasondb]

What I find interesting is that the governments ID of the virus was restricted, I know of people that had flu symptoms that then seemed to go their digestion and leave them with uncomfortable skin rashes. The doctors were not open and was not serious enough for them to go to hospital yet maybe this is part of the category the government is saying is asymptomatic. Will they still be contagious?

 

[alan1302]

What I find interesting is that the governments ID of the virus was restricted, I know of people that had flu symptoms that then seemed to go their digestion and leave them with uncomfortable skin rashes. The doctors were not open and was not serious enough for them to go to hospital yet maybe this is part of the category the government is saying is asymptomatic. Will they still be contagious?

If they have it and still have the symptons then they will be contagious - that's if they have it.

 

[Interestedobserver]

I believe one of the reasons the virus spreads so fast is that you are at your most contagious before you show any symptoms

 

[Interestedobserver]

BBC NEWS:

Second wave and new lockdown in Beijing

Earlier we reported that a cluster of new cases connected to a Beijing market in China is causing serious concern.

Now all schools have been ordered to close in an effort to contain the outbreak.

The first case, linked to a market, was recorded on Thursday and cases have been rising since then. Beijing had not seen any new cases for more than 50 days before this.

Schools and universities reopened just a few weeks ago, but now classes will once again go online. Entertainment venues will also close, and people must be tested before they will be permitted to leave the capital.

 

[Karimbo]

It's a Sunday

New Zealand have had a total of 1,134 infections and 22 deaths

As a result of strict lockdown from the start.

And now they have zero cases and zero deaths

Now they can live normal lives again pretty much albeit with closed borders

But I guess if they hadn't had a strict lockdown they could have kept social distancing in place much longer and keep the disease in the country and keep the infections coming

Now they are in a way stronger position than the rest of us

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...y-the-week-covid-19-re-emerged-in-new-zealand

Edit: same applies with china, germany experienced the same.

I've said this many times already earlier in this thread. Herd immunity approach by UK, Sweden, USA, Netherlands, Belgium is the best approach to go.

Every time in the UK, lockdown was relaxed there has never been any increase in infections or deaths. Wasn't even stagnant, it's always come down. because we're building herd immunity which is supressing infection rates,

You cannot beat a contageous disease like covid19 by lockdown. You just have less people to get infected and less people to be immune. Then when you relax social distancing a bit, you open the floodgates and there's a surge in infection.

What does NZ do now? go back to total lockdown? Are they going to do that each time they get a spike in infections?

You'll find countries like NZ will be struggling, covid19 has affected the whole world and the countries to get out of lockdown and get their ecnomoy moving the quickest will avoid a recession. Countries like NZ will be in perpetual lockdown long after everyone else has dealt with covid19.

I feel like banging my head against a brick wall sometimes, people just wanting more lockdown, the immune system doesn't work like that. This is GCSE biology.

 

[Interestedobserver]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...y-the-week-covid-19-re-emerged-in-new-zealand

Edit: same applies with china, germany experienced the same.

I've said this many times already earlier in this thread. Herd immunity approach by UK, Sweden, USA, Netherlands, Belgium is the best approach to go.

Every time in the UK, lockdown was relaxed there has never been any increase in infections or deaths. Wasn't even stagnant, it's always come down. because we're building herd immunity which is supressing infection rates,

You cannot beat a contageous disease like covid19 by lockdown. You just have less people to get infected and less people to be immune. Then when you relax social distancing a bit, you open the floodgates and there's a surge in infection.

What does NZ do now? go back to total lockdown? Are they going to do that each time they get a spike in infections?

You'll find countries like NZ will be struggling, covid19 has affected the whole world and the countries to get out of lockdown and get their ecnomoy moving the quickest will avoid a recession. Countries like NZ will be in perpetual lockdown long after everyone else has dealt with covid19.

I feel like banging my head against a brick wall sometimes, people just wanting more lockdown, the immune system doesn't work like that. This is GCSE biology.

I've heard the second wave in China is a far more deadly strain than the first one they faced

I fear we have the worst yet to come across the world

 

[Interestedobserver]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...y-the-week-covid-19-re-emerged-in-new-zealand

Edit: same applies with china, germany experienced the same.

I've said this many times already earlier in this thread. Herd immunity approach by UK, Sweden, USA, Netherlands, Belgium is the best approach to go.

Every time in the UK, lockdown was relaxed there has never been any increase in infections or deaths. Wasn't even stagnant, it's always come down. because we're building herd immunity which is supressing infection rates,

You cannot beat a contageous disease like covid19 by lockdown. You just have less people to get infected and less people to be immune. Then when you relax social distancing a bit, you open the floodgates and there's a surge in infection.

What does NZ do now? go back to total lockdown? Are they going to do that each time they get a spike in infections?

You'll find countries like NZ will be struggling, covid19 has affected the whole world and the countries to get out of lockdown and get their ecnomoy moving the quickest will avoid a recession. Countries like NZ will be in perpetual lockdown long after everyone else has dealt with covid19.

I feel like banging my head against a brick wall sometimes, people just wanting more lockdown, the immune system doesn't work like that. This is GCSE biology.

One thing the above shows IMO is going back to normal is itself a problem

It means whenever Covid returns anywhere you have to impose lockdowns that are strong and firm and fast

If we could find a way of getting a new normal that was cautious then when new infections were clustered we wouldnt need to introduce severe lockdowns

Hope that makes sense

Find some middle ground normal that can last longer and is a less dangerous situation when Covid returnds

 

[Annoying Donkey]

Except this study indicates there is no "herd immunity"...

 

[Karimbo]

Except this study indicates there is no "herd immunity"...

keywords being wuhan study. I don't trust them to do anything right, they probably don't even have a real effective antibody test and they're touting this BS so they can keep selling PPE to the world. PPE is the backbone of their manufacturing industry right now.

 

[Karimbo]

I've heard the second wave in China is a far more deadly strain than the first one they faced

I fear we have the worst yet to come across the world

if this is based on the chinese reporting, then yeah anything is going to be more deadly than the 3000 total deaths they reported initially. They embarrased themselves by putting out fake numbers, so maybe now they'll start producing real numbers and this will make it look 10x worse than the "original strain".

 

[alan1302]

What does NZ do now? go back to total lockdown? Are they going to do that each time they get a spike in infections?

They do full contact tracing so they can minimise it any further outbreaks.

So you are saying UK/Netherlands/Belgium/Sweden are in a better place than say South Korea and Japan?

 

[MOIC]

PPE is the backbone of their manufacturing industry right now.

Not anymore.

Overload of everything.

 

[Interestedobserver]

They do full contact tracing so they can minimise it any further outbreaks.

So you are saying UK/Netherlands/Belgium/Sweden are in a better place than say South Korea and Japan?

The last report I read on Sweden was they had just 7 per cent herd immunity which was less than the rest of Europe??