Chinese virus

[Jeff FV]

I’m currently watching “Contagion” on iPlayer/ BBC4 which models how a virus might spread.

Prescient publishing from the BBC? The programme was first aired a year ago, and is available on iPlayer for another 10 days. Worth a watch, link below.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p059y0p1/contagion-the-bbc-four-pandemic


I’ve also linked to a book by one of the experts consulted in the film (only published last month). I haven’t read the book, so can’t comment on it, but will do when I get time (possibly when I’m kicking my heels in lock down!)

The Rules of Contagion book: https://amzn.to/2vAqZfg

 

[Mr D]

Picked up several books on Virology recently. Fascinating stuff. Can recommend Principles and Practice of Clinical Virology (5th edition).

 

[OMGVape]

Am I wrong to be absolutely horrified at the governments plan to lift restrictions on school class sizes when teachers are off sick ?

Jeeze Christ, if a teacher of our kids is off sick with the sniffles the whole school should be shut down, not all crammed in to one classroom.

 

[Mr D]

Am I wrong to be absolutely horrified at the governments plan to lift restrictions on school class sizes when teachers are off sick ?

Jeeze Christ, if a teacher of our kids is off sick with the sniffles the whole school should be shut down, not all crammed in to one classroom.

Schools have coped with staff off sick. Somehow they appear to commonly not cram all the kids into one classroom.
What has changed that was unknown before?

 

[MOIC]

Coronavirus Update March 3rd:


Official figures for those tested: An additional 1864 infected with the virus yesterday, taking the total tested and infected to 90936.


Total deaths yesterday alone were recorded at 73, taking the total deaths recorded to 3117.


China: Narrative continuing with infected figures down in every province and the rest of the world is seeing increases.(Implying that it is no longer a solely Chinese virus). Continued talk that most factories are now open (but the majority aren't producing!!). They are looking to give the world a sense that China is back to normal. (This will take 6 months and there will be many business casualties).


Many factories who are reliant on their supply chain factories are struggling to get back to production. Workers still struggling to get back. Talk increasing of component supply shortage and price increases inevitable. Shipment dates are not reliable.


Globally: More exhibitions and events being cancelled daily for dates into April.


S Korea: 4812 infected (up 600 from yesterday), 28 deaths.


Italy: 2036 infected (up 342 from yesterday), 52 deaths. Most major tourist sites hit.


Iran: 1501 infected (up 523 from yesterday), 66 deaths. An advisor to the Supreme Leader has reportedly died of the virus.


Japan: 274 infected, 6 deaths. (Not including the cruise ship).


France: 191 infected (up 61 from yesterday), 3 deaths.


Germany: 165 infected (up 35 from yesterday), no deaths reported.


Spain: 120 infected, no deaths reported.


USA: 102 infected, 6 deaths.


UK: 39 infected. Basic equipment and hand sanitisers reportedly sold out in many shops.


European numbers rising steadily in virtually every country and will be interesting to note the preventive/containment actions taken by each country.


I'll update further tomorrow.


Keep safe and well.

 

[DazRave]

I’m not worried about it personally and think it’s a bit of an overreaction. The normal flu kills more people and picks off the elderly and infirm, and this seems like another strain of it.

I've heard a lot of people say that exact same line. It's completely wrong.

"Many individuals who get coronavirus will experience nothing worse than seasonal flu symptoms, but the overall profile of the disease, including its mortality rate, looks more serious. At the start of an outbreak the apparent mortality rate can be an overestimate if a lot of mild cases are being missed. But this week, a WHO expert suggested that this has not been the case with Covid-19. Bruce Aylward, who led an international mission to China to learn about the virus and the country’s response, said the evidence did not suggest that we were only seeing the tip of the iceberg. If borne out by further testing, this could mean that current estimates of a roughly 1% fatality rate are accurate. This would make Covid-19 about 10 times more deadly than seasonal flu, which is estimated to kill between 290,000 and 650,000 people a year globally.

Most people who are not elderly and do not have underlying health conditions will not become critically ill from Covid-19. But the illness still has a higher chance of leading to serious respiratory symptoms than seasonal flu and there are other at-risk groups – health workers, for instance, are more vulnerable because they are likely to have higher exposure to the virus. The actions that young, healthy people take, including reporting symptoms and following quarantine instructions, will have an important role in protecting the most vulnerable in society and in shaping the overall trajectory of the outbreak."

Source:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...coronavirus-myths-face-masks-vaccine-covid-19

 

[Mr D]

I've heard a lot of people say that exact same line. It's completely wrong.

"Many individuals who get coronavirus will experience nothing worse than seasonal flu symptoms, but the overall profile of the disease, including its mortality rate, looks more serious. At the start of an outbreak the apparent mortality rate can be an overestimate if a lot of mild cases are being missed. But this week, a WHO expert suggested that this has not been the case with Covid-19. Bruce Aylward, who led an international mission to China to learn about the virus and the country’s response, said the evidence did not suggest that we were only seeing the tip of the iceberg. If borne out by further testing, this could mean that current estimates of a roughly 1% fatality rate are accurate. This would make Covid-19 about 10 times more deadly than seasonal flu, which is estimated to kill between 290,000 and 650,000 people a year globally.

Most people who are not elderly and do not have underlying health conditions will not become critically ill from Covid-19. But the illness still has a higher chance of leading to serious respiratory symptoms than seasonal flu and there are other at-risk groups – health workers, for instance, are more vulnerable because they are likely to have higher exposure to the virus. The actions that young, healthy people take, including reporting symptoms and following quarantine instructions, will have an important role in protecting the most vulnerable in society and in shaping the overall trajectory of the outbreak."

Source:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...coronavirus-myths-face-masks-vaccine-covid-19

The best chance those more vulnerable of us have is not to be exposed to the virus.
Besides barricading ourselves away from everyone the best thing is those we have contact with also not get it.

But will those who cannot afford sick pay, who cannot afford time off work, who seek to carry on life as normal - will they kill others?

 

[thetiger2015]

But will those who cannot afford sick pay, who cannot afford time off work, who seek to carry on life as normal - will they kill others?

Possibly (indirectly of course). This has been going on so long, there's no way that people can isolate themselves for such a long period. Maybe a week, maybe two at the most but since January?

People have to go to work, companies cannot afford to pay people to stay at home - unless you're completely web based. Factories etc are the ones hit most. If one person gets it, they're all going to get it and if the virus can live on surfaces for a few days, the items they've just packed are going to contain it and deliver it straight to your door.

I say factories are hit most but then it's a domino effect. If factories are shut, they don't need marketing, they don't need PR, the staff don't need petrol because they're not coming in anyway - the knock on effect to any economy will get worse until the situation is resolved.

I've not seen much of it but I would have thought all commercial and retail buildings should be regularly cleaned down. All door handles, all lift buttons, all grab rails - two or three times per day at least. I've not seen this happening anywhere at all?

As someone else mentioned, comparing it to the usual seasonal flu is pointless. We don't know the death rate for this new strain, as it hasn't hit enough of the worlds population yet.

 

[Newchodge]

The best chance those more vulnerable of us have is not to be exposed to the virus.
Besides barricading ourselves away from everyone the best thing is those we have contact with also not get it.

But will those who cannot afford sick pay, who cannot afford time off work, who seek to carry on life as normal - will they kill others?

No. They may pass on the virus, which may kill others, but they will not, personally, kill anyone. At least not due to the virus.

 

[ecommerce84]

Yes the flu has killed more people but that's only because it's widespread all over the world, the mortality rate for flu is like 0.1%, covid19 is a lot higher, some sources are saying the mortality rate is somewhere between 10-20%.

It’s nowhere near 10% let alone 20%.

if anything it’s lower than is being reported.

 

[Mr D]

No. They may pass on the virus, which may kill others, but they will not, personally, kill anyone. At least not due to the virus.

I'm sure that will be of great comfort to those who die.

 

[Mr D]

It’s nowhere near 10% let alone 20%.

if anything it’s lower than is being reported.

Do the calculations yourself.

Take a date. Look at how many are dead at that date.
Then work out what time period you want to use for time period of having the virus. If for example you choose 7 days then use the date 7 days prior to your dead date and use the figures for infected as at then.

Doing it for multiple dates for the same time period will give you a range of percentages.
Some of which will not be lower than 10%!

Case fatality rate - worked out by you - gives a range of figures then.
You aren't being drip fed best scenario percentages you are working them out from the only figures you can find.

 

[ecommerce84]

I've not seen much of it but I would have thought all commercial and retail buildings should be regularly cleaned down. All door handles, all lift buttons, all grab rails - two or three times per day at least. I've not seen this happening anywhere at all?

I’m not sure that’s practical. Think of your local big supermarket, all those handles, doors, shelves etc, once a day maybe but not 2 or 3 times a day.

Instead it would be better for every single person to step up their game with regards to hygiene and looking after yourself - bin tissues after using, wash your hands properly regularly, especially after using the loo, TOP UP with hand sanitiser when needed or soap and water aren’t available, limit the amount of journeys into town you make.

I’m within 15 miles of 2 confirmed cases and the level of hysteria by some people on Facebook is ridiculous. But the expectation is always that ‘someone should be doing something’ - there is only so much that can be done anyway.

Good example on FB this morning -“me and my friends are having our monthly meet up in town this morning. As we are older, we don’t want to risk catching it but we don’t get to see each other often. NO ONE has told us it’s safe to go in so we’re not sure what to do. The local council should be saying where is safe and where is not.”.

No one can ever guarantee it’s safe, so just don’t go if you’re worried. Imagine a council saying “this area is safe” and it turns out it isn’t.

 

[ecommerce84]

Do the calculations yourself.

Take a date. Look at how many are dead at that date.
Then work out what time period you want to use for time period of having the virus. If for example you choose 7 days then use the date 7 days prior to your dead date and use the figures for infected as at then.

Doing it for multiple dates for the same time period will give you a range of percentages.
Some of which will not be lower than 10%!

Case fatality rate - worked out by you - gives a range of figures then.
You aren't being drip fed best scenario percentages you are working them out from the only figures you can find.

But the problem with that method is you are using data about those that have been confirmed as infected.

There are almost certainly many who have had it, recovered and will never be reported. Thus the mortality rate is lower than being reported.

Of course some countries will have higher mortality rates than others. Iran’s will be higher than ours as they simply don’t have the experience of level of healthcare required to keep it down.

 

[Mr D]

I’m not sure that’s practical. Think of your local big supermarket, all those handles, doors, shelves etc, once a day maybe but not 2 or 3 times a day.

Instead it would be better for every single person to step up their game with regards to hygiene and looking after yourself - bin tissues after using, wash your hands properly regularly, especially after using the loo, TOP UP with hand sanitiser when needed or soap and water aren’t available, limit the amount of journeys into town you make.

I’m within 15 miles of 2 confirmed cases and the level of hysteria by some people on Facebook is ridiculous. But the expectation is always that ‘someone should be doing something’ - there is only so much that can be done anyway.

Good example on FB this morning -“me and my friends are having our monthly meet up in town this morning. As we are older, we don’t want to risk catching it but we don’t get to see each other often. NO ONE has told us it’s safe to go in so we’re not sure what to do. The local council should be saying where is safe and where is not.”.

No one can ever guarantee it’s safe, so just don’t go if you’re worried. Imagine a council saying “this area is safe” and it turns out it isn’t.

Indeed. You have hit on the most effective strategy by people.
Their own bio security.

Not government, not council, not medical staff going to save them - but their own actions will have an impact.

 

[MOIC]

If for example you choose 7 days then use the date 7 days prior to your dead date and use the figures for infected as at then.

I've used a 10 day 'infected numbers' prior to the current death numbers (based on official figures) .

The death % rate for the past 10 days has fluctuated between 3.69 to 3.96.

 

[Mr D]

But the problem with that method is you are using data about those that have been confirmed as infected.

There are almost certainly many who have had it, recovered and will never be reported. Thus the mortality rate is lower than being reported.

Of course some countries will have higher mortality rates than others. Iran’s will be higher than ours as they simply don’t have the experience of level of healthcare required to keep it down.

Then use whatever data you can find about number diagnosed and dead.
You may be ill one day - but until diagnosed you aren't counted among the figures of having a particular illness. The case fatality rate you have been told other illnesses have will only go on diagnosed or estimated.

Every epidemic you can find any records of at all - including black death - you will have at best partial figures.
You think every person who had SARS or MARS was diagnosed? Every person with the flu?

 

[MOIC]

Global Sources have finally got around to announcing the cancellation of the Hong Kong April fairs. . . . . . . . .

Cancellation of the Global Sources 2020 Spring Show Series
March 3rd, 2020

Global Sources is an internationally professional B2B media company and exhibition organizer based in Hong Kong for 49 years. Since 2006, it has organized world-class sourcing events in Hong Kong, including the world's largest electronics sourcing show, Global Sources Electronics.

Global Sources always puts the health and safety of exhibitors, visitors and service users first, and is active in implementing health measures put forward by the World Health Organization and Hong Kong SAR Government in response to the novel coronavirus Covid-19 outbreak. In order to protect the health and safety of participants, and for general public health considerations, as well as taking into account the potential disruptions that may be caused to exhibitors and visitors due to various on-going travel and quarantine issues and restrictions, Global Sources has made the difficult decision to cancel the Global Sources 2020 Spring Show Series.

Cancellation of the Global Sources 2020 Spring Show Series:

- Global Sources Consumer Electronics (April 11th – 14th, 2020)
- Global Sources Mobile Electronics (April 18th – 21st, 2020)
- Global Sources Smart Home & Appliances (April 18th – 21st, 2020)
- Global Sources Home & Kitchen (April 18th – 21st, 2020)
- Global Sources Fashion (April 27th – 30th, 2020)
- Global Sources Lifestyle (April 27th – 30th, 2020).

Global Sources will contact exhibitors and buyers to inform them about the cancellation, with detailed arrangements for the next Global Sources 2020 Fall Show Series to be shared in a timely manner.

 

[Mr D]

I've used a 10 day 'infected numbers' prior to the current death numbers (based on official figures) .

The death % rate for the past 10 days has fluctuated between 3.69 to 3.96.

Great.
Now if say 30 million people in the UK get it then based on your percentages the number of dead would be 1,107,000 or more.

Rather different than the 1% figures some are bandying around.

Perhaps different people will get different figures.

Oh and SARS the case fatality rate during was around half the case fatality rate after it had finished.

 

[Guy Incognito]

As has been stated, people will have it and not know - they might not go to the doctor, might think it's a cold / flu and just sweat it out like many people do.
There are certainly a much higher number of infected people than the governments know about. Which means the mortality rate is much lower than is being reported, which for those under 75 is circa 1% I believe.
Like with the normal flu, it's the old / infirm who are at most risk.

 

[Mr D]

As has been stated, people will have it and not know - they might not go to the doctor, might think it's a cold / flu and just sweat it out like many people do.
There are certainly a much higher number of infected people than the governments know about. Which means the mortality rate is much lower than is being reported, which for those under 75 is circa 1% I believe.
Like with the normal flu, it's the old / infirm who are at most risk.

Then notify the WHO that the figures they are reporting are wrong.

 

[Newchodge]

Am I wrong to be absolutely horrified at the governments plan to lift restrictions on school class sizes when teachers are off sick ?

Jeeze Christ, if a teacher of our kids is off sick with the sniffles the whole school should be shut down, not all crammed in to one classroom.

And when the sniffles turn out to have been a common cold, the whole school has been shut down, parents have had to stay off work to look after kids, businesses have failed to carry out their obligations because they have no staff, family debt increases as the parents looking after children have no rightr to any pay.

From the available figures there have been 0 fatalities in those under the age of 9.

If someone has the sniffles and it is Covid-19 they will already have been infectious for some time.

I am all for effective and efficient measures to control the spread of any disease, but the current level of both hysteria and stupidity is not helping anything, while potentially creating the worst global economic crisis since 2008.

 

[Mr D]

And when the sniffles turn out to have been a common cold, the whole school has been shut down, parents have had to stay off work to look after kids, businesses have failed to carry out their obligations because they have no staff, family debt increases as the parents looking after children have no rightr to any pay.

From the available figures there have been 0 fatalities in those under the age of 9.

If someone has the sniffles and it is Covid-19 they will already have been infectious for some time.

I am all for effective and efficient measures to control the spread of any disease, but the current level of both hysteria and stupidity is not helping anything, while potentially creating the worst global economic crisis since 2008.

Perhaps less of an economic crisis needed and more deaths?

 

[Newchodge]

Perhaps less of an economic crisis needed and more deaths?

How many deaths from the economic crisis?

 

[MOIC]

I am all for effective and efficient measures to control the spread of any disease

I agree with you . . . . . .but . . . . were China wrong to quarantine the whole of Wuhan City in order to prevent the virus from spreading much more than it currently has?

Containment must be used to a relative degree within known infected areas.

 

[Newchodge]

I agree with you . . . . . .but . . . . were China wrong to quarantine the whole of Wuhan City in order to prevent the virus from spreading much more than it currently has?

Containment must be used to a relative degree within known infected areas.

I don't know. did that policy condemn more peole in Wuhan because of the quarantine?

 

[Mr D]

How many deaths from the economic crisis?

Indeed. Now you are thinking.

A balancing act governments will have to perform. And get slammed by the people regardless of whether any particular decisions were good ones or not.
Business as usual in UK politics.

 

[Mr D]

I don't know. did that policy condemn more peole in Wuhan because of the quarantine?

Quite likely.
When you cannot escape being infected by moving away from infected...

 

[MOIC]

I don't know. did that policy condemn more peole in Wuhan because of the quarantine?

Unknown, as with many things connected with this virus.

Thats' the scary thing.

 

[Chris Ashdown]

I went to our village pharmacy today and also 2 shops looking for hand sanitizer, neither had any or had any since last week, it would appear that for the last three months nothing has been done to really increase stocks, plus the stockpiling by the bastards who buy far more than they need leaving others to maybe needlessly and possibly die

 

[Deleted member 59730]

I went to our village pharmacy today and also 2 shops looking for hand sanitizer, neither had any or had any since last week, it would appear that for the last three months nothing has been done to really increase stocks, plus the stockpiling by the bastards who buy far more than they need leaving others to maybe needlessly and possibly die

Its not sanitiser you want its Alcohol.

 

[Chris Ashdown]

Sanitisers contain about 60% Alcohol on average, your splitting hairs

 

[DontAsk]

Do the calculations yourself.

Take a date. Look at how many are dead at that date.
Then work out what time period you want to use for time period of having the virus. If for example you choose 7 days then use the date 7 days prior to your dead date and use the figures for infected as at then.

Then add on the number who had it but didn't realise and the number who had it and never reported it.

 

[Newchodge]

I frequent a number of HR forum-style places. I am appalled that all of my colleagues appear to be seeking guidance about what their clients must do if someone self-isolates. The perceived wisdom, that they are entitled to SSP at the most and only if they are eligible and they have written advice from a medical practitioner that they should self isolate is just madness. Many low paid people have no safety net. If they don't work they don't eat. Suppose there is a care home for elderly people (those most at risk of death from this virus) and the entire minimum wage workforce is part time and does not earn enough to get even SSP. And one of those employees has an offspring who has just come to visit them immediately after their return from a holiday in the affected part of Italy. What do you think such an employer should do?

 

[Mr D]

You mean the number not diagnosed?

By all means. Just know then you are using an estimate.

Anything to get you numbers you want. Don't forget to notify WHO their method is wrong.

 

[UrbanRetail]

Many low paid people have no safety net. If they don't work they don't eat.

That's probably why they've announced the Army will be available to backfill the Police.

 

[Mr D]

I frequent a number of HR forum-style places. I am appalled that all of my colleagues appear to be seeking guidance about what their clients must do if someone self-isolates. The perceived wisdom, that they are entitled to SSP at the most and only if they are eligible and they have written advice from a medical practitioner that they should self isolate is just madness. Many low paid people have no safety net. If they don't work they don't eat. Suppose there is a care home for elderly people (those most at risk of death from this virus) and the entire minimum wage workforce is part time and does not earn enough to get even SSP. And one of those employees has an offspring who has just come to visit them immediately after their return from a holiday in the affected part of Italy. What do you think such an employer should do?

Getting written advice from a medical practitioner? Will that be easy when the government are saying don't go see your GP? Heck, from what some say, normally its weeks before can see GP anyway.

Businesses - will they be able to afford paying more than SSP while also maybe paying for temp staff / overtime?

 

[Mr D]

That's probably why they've announced the Army will be available to backfill the Police.

Army better at providing food to hungry people than the police?

 

[Newchodge]

Getting written advice from a medical practitioner? Will that be easy when the government are saying don't go see your GP? Heck, from what some say, normally its weeks before can see GP anyway.

Businesses - will they be able to afford paying more than SSP while also maybe paying for temp staff / overtime?

They won't need to becasue their staff will not self isolate. Leading to ....?

 

[Mr D]

They won't need to becasue their staff will not self isolate. Leading to ....?

Ah, the term known as 'infection'?

There's going to be those who don't know they are ill. There's going to be those who are ill but push on because as has been said they can't afford time off.
And there's going to be employers insisting that Kath in packing take 2 weeks off in quarantine.
Whether she wants it or not.

There's a word where cluster is the first half. You know it?