Solar PV and Solar Thermal - BIG SCALE, BIG RETURN!

cjd

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  • Nov 23, 2005
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    So your very best shot in ideal conditions with no exceptional costs and a friendly estimate without survey on a system too big for my roof is a notional payback of 7 years?
     
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    So your very best shot in ideal conditions with no exceptional costs and a friendly estimate without survey on a system too big for my roof is a notional payback of 7 years?


    About that. Then 18 years of tax free returns.

    For information and to update this thread, we have just secured a 22 acre project, in the South West, for a group of PFIs.

    Numbers are similar, but on a different scale. £500,000 per acrea (near as damn it). Contracted returns of £74,800 in year 1.

    TAX FREE

    Thats critical on these projects. One of the PFI members has estmiated this is actually like earning closer to £110,000 per year.

    Therefore, nearly £1.4m return on £500,000. Money back after 8 years. Then a VERY tidy retirement pot for the next 17 years....beats 1% from the abbey!
     
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    Good grief.

    The web site gives the cost of a 2Kw system at £12K and an income of £933pa. Others have said £12k is too high and it should be £10k. It doesn't matter, even at £10k the payback is 11 years. And that's without any assumptions about maintenance or electrical degradation.

    I'm simply not interested in a payback of 11 years - anything could go wrong in that time; including the subsidy being pulled or my roof needing replacing. (I've never stayed in the same house for longer that 5 years - and please don't talk to me about bonds.....)

    It's a con.

    Hi. For info, we are putting 2.3 kw systems in fully inclusive at £8495.....and have a long, long queue of customers!!!

    We aim for 7.5 years payback.

    If you have the money in the bank it a NO BRAINER. No argument surely.
     
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    Given that the numbers don't work in the sunny south, they're not going to improve by going North ;-)


    What basis are you making this assumption on? The numbers very much DO work in the south, and granted the rate of return on investment is not as substantial in the North and espeically Scotland.

    The returns are locked in a 25 year deal. PM me and give me your address (not specifically is you dont want, postcode is fine) and the orientation of your property. I will provide the GUARANTEED returns. Put your money where your mouth is. Gie me £10k, ill turn it into £30k for you.
     
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    willitbe

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    So your very best shot in ideal conditions with no exceptional costs and a friendly estimate without survey on a system too big for my roof is a notional payback of 7 years?

    I wouldn't expect anyone with less than ideal conditions to participate!!

    So the remaining 18 years of at least the same is no good then?

    If you don't have a suitable roof area, doesn't mean it's cack does it?.

    I gather you could manage a 2 Kwp system then....Cost price 5,200, non installed...

    CJ....You are struggling now, it pays, it pay's back and pay's back well and much more than your local NSA or ISA.

    Let's move on to Mortgages, Cars, Fridges. etc etc and every other crap deal we get.......But this still doesn't work for you?

    Maybe you can't afford it, no worries, leave it to the ones that can!

    Cheers Will:)
     
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    cjd

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  • Nov 23, 2005
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    Maybe you can't afford it, no worries, leave it to the ones that can!

    Cheers Will:)

    Don't get me wrong, this is a fantastic scam and will attract every fly by night toe rag sales guy in the UK. The manufacturers will make a fortune and not have to do the hard work of making products that are actually cost effective - all nicely subsidized by the taxpayer, bless him.

    The sales guys that currently peddle double glazing, conservatories and telecom resellers will get really busy conning pensioners again. Yup, it's a gold mine for the cowboys.

    And that last sentence of yours tells it all doesn't it? of all the nasty little sales patters that one is down there with the whale poop. Congrats.
     
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    willitbe

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    Don't get me wrong, this is a fantastic scam and will attract every fly by night toe rag sales guy in the UK. The manufacturers will make a fortune and not have to do the hard work of making products that are actually cost effective - all nicely subsidized by the taxpayer, bless him.

    The sales guys that currently peddle double glazing, conservatories and telecom resellers will get really busy conning pensioners again. Yup, it's a gold mine for the cowboys.

    And that last sentence of yours tells it all doesn't it? of all the nasty little sales patters that one is down there with the whale poop. Congrats.

    No ,I am an Electrician by trade that has always been interested in Photovoltaics and renewables...

    Another wildly speculative post by the CJD!!

    Give up, you have failed in every aspect of justification of your posts...

    Still love you though....xxxx
     
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    The returns are locked in a 25 year deal. PM me and give me your address (not specifically is you dont want, postcode is fine) and the orientation of your property. I will provide the GUARANTEED returns. Put your money where your mouth is. Gie me £10k, ill turn it into £30k for you.

    do you really think a deal like that is going to hold good once diddy David and his merry men take a look at it.?

    Taxpayer scams are not exactly flavour of the month.

    As Eaton boy said we is looking for good value for the taxpayer and solar electricity generation energy certainly is not in the UK.

    Earl
     
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    willitbe

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    do you really think a deal like that is going to hold good once diddy David and his merry men take a look at it.?

    Taxpayer scams are not exactly flavour of the month.

    As Eaton boy said we is looking for good value for the taxpayer and solar electricity generation energy certainly is not in the UK.

    Earl

    Right, very briefly, not funded by the taxpayer, paid for by energy suppliers, who in return will add levy to bills.

    Diddy David and his chums have looked and left it well alone.

    Photovoltaic panels need daylight, thermal panels need sunshine, the UK gets plenty of daylight Sirearl.

    Ill-informed post at best Earl....
     
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    This long thread has confirmed to me, as I have long since suspected that Photovoltaics are crap!

    1. Crap in the sense that they are inefficient at generating electricity and;
    2. Crap in the sense of the long payback time.

    But having read (all of it), digested and partly understood (most of it)...

    From a manufacturers point of view (those that make the components), the installation companies (that install/maintain it), and the family that receives the subsidy (paid for by energy suppliers) - all appears to be good news!

    In fact, providing that Brussels don't pull the plug and our government continues to claw back some dosh and continues to do so for the next 20 years (EU Countries are to meet low carbon emissions targets, or possibly if other greener alternative subsidies supersede this one), the only real loser here will be the ordinary householder still attached to the grid?

    That loser will be me then

    until...

    I finally tell the world of my vision for a hydrogen economy! ;)
     
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    As the creator of heatmyhome.co.uk I have 8 years experience with solar.

    PV solar does work well within the UK environment and this has been proved by generous government incentives. Germany has a similar climate to the UK and they are 15 years ahead in terms of solar uptake. It was a train journey to Sallzberg which made me see so many solar panels on roofs that I first got into this technology in the first place.

    You can see the solar radiation map for the UK:

    heatmyhome.co.uk/solar-panel/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=111

    I hope this clear up this matter.
     
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    ecohome

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    As the creator of heatmyhome.co.uk I have 8 years experience with solar.

    PV solar does work well within the UK environment and this has been proved by generous government incentives. Germany has a similar climate to the UK and they are 15 years ahead in terms of solar uptake. It was a train journey to Sallzberg which made me see so many solar panels on roofs that I first got into this technology in the first place.

    You can see the solar radiation map for the UK:

    heatmyhome.co.uk/solar-panel/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=111

    I hope this clear up this matter.

    I tried to contact you on your site but the form doesnt work and nowhere is there an email address advertised.

    I want to find the best pv for my project can you supply a number or address to contact?

    * Because youve just joined I cant pm you.

    Regards,

    Jim.
     
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    ecohome

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    What basis are you making this assumption on? The numbers very much DO work in the south, and granted the rate of return on investment is not as substantial in the North and espeically Scotland.

    The returns are locked in a 25 year deal. PM me and give me your address (not specifically is you dont want, postcode is fine) and the orientation of your property. I will provide the GUARANTEED returns. Put your money where your mouth is. Gie me £10k, ill turn it into £30k for you.

    Morganian,

    You're never going to satisfy everyone and this thread will rumble on if you let it. For me I'm satisfied that solar works (have been for some time) so much so I want to get involved in the south east. Feel free to pm me as I'm in need of as much help as I can get and no better help than someone out there doing it.

    I believe I can get investors interested in larger commercial projects too but one step at a time. I've got a strong brand that's good to go and getting some advice on 'amongst other things' avoiding mistakes and best practice would be invaluable.

    Can you pm me as there are other things I'd like to discuss.

    Regards, Jim.
     
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    I believe I can get investors interested in larger commercial projects too but one step at a time.
    Red flag time: What matters to investors is a credible financial return and reliable ROI. No one's going to invest based on 'bandwagon' or current fad. The words that concern me here are "I believe". You need to prove and demonstrate and convince. While believing in your product is important, investors are in it only for cold hard cash. They wouldn't give a hoot for your personal ideology and preferences.
     
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    Malarky

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    Has PV technology moved on that much in the last 3 years? I used to be involved in pricing and installing PV membranes and one of the main problems were that units only lasted 10-15 years. Has this changed now? I'm genuinely interested as the technology was always of huge interest to me.
     
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    vvaannmmaann

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    Has PV technology moved on that much in the last 3 years? I used to be involved in pricing and installing PV membranes and one of the main problems were that units only lasted 10-15 years. Has this changed now? I'm genuinely interested as the technology was always of huge interest to me.

    UK Feed-in Tariffs for PV are calculated for an economic lifetime of 25 years, indicating that the Department of Energy and Climate Change believes that panels will produce for at least that long. The warranty conditions for PV panels typically guarantee that panels can still produce at least 80% of their initial rated peak output after 20 (or sometimes 25) years. So manufactures expect that their panels last at least 20 years, and that the efficiency decreases by no more than 1% per year.
     
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    Malarky

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    UK Feed-in Tariffs for PV are calculated for an economic lifetime of 25 years, indicating that the Department of Energy and Climate Change believes that panels will produce for at least that long. The warranty conditions for PV panels typically guarantee that panels can still produce at least 80% of their initial rated peak output after 20 (or sometimes 25) years. So manufactures expect that their panels last at least 20 years, and that the efficiency decreases by no more than 1% per year.

    Great, thanks. I think it's time to start reading up again!
     
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    ecohome

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    Red flag time: What matters to investors is a credible financial return and reliable ROI. No one's going to invest based on 'bandwagon' or current fad. The words that concern me here are "I believe". You need to prove and demonstrate and convince. While believing in your product is important, investors are in it only for cold hard cash. They wouldn't give a hoot for your personal ideology and preferences.


    Hello Steve,

    I clearly don't have your posting history and you are welcome to your opinion and God knows you seem to have enough of it but please don't assume you can teach me anything about business or an investors criteria.

    You do not know me and you know nothing of my background or experience.

    If I want to get involved in this sector its none of your concern, however for the record if I didn't think there was the potential of a viable business in this sector, I wouldnt waste my time. Additionally as I infer in my post 'investors' would/could follow but this would only happen when I have proof positive that there an is a risk-assessed investment opportunity. Proof positive in my book includes innovation, demand, supply, profit and longevity amongst other markers.

    I have dealt with investors over a 25 year career and I'm very aware of the many criteria that motivate them and with respect I do not need your input, thank you.

    My query specifically requests information from Morganian (while it was asked in open forum) I thought it would be clear it was addressed to the OP, I also asked if we could carry on any further discussion by pm.

    Otherwise I might have worded it: Can anyone on this string please provide me ...advice on 'amongst other things' avoiding mistakes and best practice.....

    I have no wish to be drawn into this debate, I have already made up my mind.

    So Morganian if you would like to answer we could continue discussions by pm, or personal email addresses with a view to sharing experience and potential projects.

    Regards, Jim.
     
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    cjd

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    Don't be fooled by that, insurance is part based on the real life expectancy of the product and the actual likelihood of a claim. With long policies like these the insurer is probably only expecting 10 years of real life - after that they rely on people not knowing they have policies, not finding policies, people having moved house, etc etc.

    But all of that is bull - the biggest risk is the business model which relies entirely on an artificial subsidy of an exceptionally non-cost effective product. As soon as the subsidy disappears, the industry disappears.
     
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    willitbe

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    Don't be fooled by that, insurance is part based on the real life expectancy of the product and the actual likelihood of a claim. With long policies like these the insurer is probably only expecting 10 years of real life - after that they rely on people not knowing they have policies, not finding policies, people having moved house, etc etc.

    But all of that is bull - the biggest risk is the business model which relies entirely on an artificial subsidy of an exceptionally non-cost effective product. As soon as the subsidy disappears, the industry disappears.


    Insurance policy?. What are you waffling on about? No-one mentioned insurance policies!

    The panels are simply replaced by the manfacturer should one fail or go below expected output/efficiency
     
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    cjd

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    And if the manufacturer is Chinese and/or defunct?

    If you buy any building product with a long guarantee it's useless unless it's backed by an insurer. If this isn't, it's worse than I thought.
     
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    Looking through google to find unbiased information on the viability of panels .I was amazed ( well not really ) to find a huge amount of companies singing there praises of course they all were in the business of selling the bleeding things.

    But nothing on the real viability of the panels.

    My experience is that when everyone jumps on the bandwagon its usually easy money or a scam.

    apparently 10% efficiency is about right for scotland over a year.

    and no one has tested them over a 20 year period .prices about £700 fo 210 watts on the sunniest day of the year.:eek:

    its a govenment condoned scam nothing less as other citizens are paying to susidise the few ,not cricket.IMHO

    Earl
     
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    willitbe

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    Looking through google to find unbiased information on the viability of panels .I was amazed ( well not really ) to find a huge amount of companies singing there praises of course they all were in the business of selling the bleeding things.

    But nothing on the real viability of the panels.

    My experience is that when everyone jumps on the bandwagon its usually easy money or a scam.

    apparently 10% efficiency is about right for scotland over a year.

    and no one has tested them over a 20 year period .prices about £700 fo 210 watts on the sunniest day of the year.:eek:

    its a govenment condoned scam nothing less as other citizens are paying to susidise the few ,not cricket.IMHO

    Earl


    SEO ANYONE?
     
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    If you read this thread, you'll see that the business case for solar panels appears to rest on government subsidies. If you have knowledge and experience that shows the business case is stronger than that, it would be good to hear it.

    I'm not questioning your experience, and of course you can ignore my comments. With many years of working with investors, you undoubtedly know more about their expectations than I do. I was reacting to the words "I believe", which appear all too often in green threads of this type. Too often, the assumption is that investors will stump up cash simply because an opportunity is 'green'. In light of what's been discussed so far, the business case for solar panels appears to be a little questionable - although I'd be only too pleased to be proved wrong on this. If the data presented earlier is wrong, feel free to point out the errors.

    Hello Steve,

    I clearly don't have your posting history and you are welcome to your opinion and God knows you seem to have enough of it but please don't assume you can teach me anything about business or an investors criteria.

    You do not know me and you know nothing of my background or experience.

    If I want to get involved in this sector its none of your concern, however for the record if I didn't think there was the potential of a viable business in this sector, I wouldnt waste my time. Additionally as I infer in my post 'investors' would/could follow but this would only happen when I have proof positive that there an is a risk-assessed investment opportunity. Proof positive in my book includes innovation, demand, supply, profit and longevity amongst other markers.

    I have dealt with investors over a 25 year career and I'm very aware of the many criteria that motivate them and with respect I do not need your input, thank you.

    My query specifically requests information from Morganian (while it was asked in open forum) I thought it would be clear it was addressed to the OP, I also asked if we could carry on any further discussion by pm.

    Otherwise I might have worded it: Can anyone on this string please provide me ...advice on 'amongst other things' avoiding mistakes and best practice.....

    I have no wish to be drawn into this debate, I have already made up my mind.

    So Morganian if you would like to answer we could continue discussions by pm, or personal email addresses with a view to sharing experience and potential projects.

    Regards, Jim.
     
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    Simply not true Earl.

    Solar technology has been around for decades.

    Here's a comprehensive study on a 1982 installation which used much older technology than is available today.

    http://www.isaac.supsi.ch/isaac/pub...fp - mean time before failure (mtbf) 2003.pdf

    Well he ain't gonna say there a load of crap and make himself unemployed now is he.?:rolleyes:

    10% of the claimed output.

    A friend gave up installing the panels after many years as to many complaints about there performance.

    Untill you can power a house for 10k outlay its not viable.IMHO

    Earl
     
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    Well he ain't gonna say there a load of crap and make himself unemployed now is he.?:rolleyes:

    He being an EU Institute with a responsibility for all renewable energy. That's a job for life if ever I've heard one regardless of any positive or negative results.

    There are no moving parts in these things so the failure factors are all about withstanding the weather. Not rocket science, not new.

    10% of the claimed output.
    Earl

    So basically, that's a number you just invented for effect :|

    its a govenment condoned scam nothing less as other citizens are paying to susidise the few ,not cricket.IMHO

    Given that the government backed incentives have gone ahead, despite the fact that many would share your view, whether it was or wasn't a good idea is an irrelevance from a business or home-owners perspective.
     
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    Given that the government backed incentives have gone ahead, despite the fact that many would share your view, whether it was or wasn't a good idea is an irrelevance from a business or home-owners perspective.
    If the business case depends heavily on decades of heavy government investment (in a new era of financial austerity), I'd say that it's very relevant from a business perspective.
     
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    If the business case depends heavily on decades of heavy government investment (in a new era of financial austerity), I'd say that it's very relevant from a business perspective.

    The business case for private investment should be based on approved Government commitments, accompanied by a what-if analysis for future probabilities, no more no less.

    As of today, the commitment on PV is 41.3p - 44.3p per kWh produced paid for 25 years on installations before April 2013, at which point any additional installations will be subject to a new and probably reduced payment.
     
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    Now would I thats bodering on libel.?:|:)

    http://www.mpoweruk.com/solar.htm

    Earl

    Nope, it's simply a disingenuous, or at best misleading statement, a use of statistics which could get you a job as a government PR bod.
    And you know I'm right. :)

    In the context of your statement:
    PV panels : let's go with your circa 10% efficient.
    Incandescent light bulbs : circa 5% efficient.
    The diesel engine: circa 30% efficient.

    Means nothing whatsoever in the cost/value/payback debate, just a bit of value to the physicists and statisticians of our time.
     
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    willitbe

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    Yeah I know what you mean.

    I just can't help being honest.:)

    Earl

    Earl, do you actually have any experience of Solar Pv?.

    In fact most things you comment on seem to be little, selective titbits scraped from the web!

    Next time you are tootling down a country lane in your Austin Allegro Vanden Plas and you see a little sign start flashing up warning you of iminent danger, thus saving your little life, think again about solar not working in this country.
     
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    Earl, do you actually have any experience of Solar Pv?.

    In fact most things you comment on seem to be little, selective titbits scraped from the web!

    Next time you are tootling down a country lane in your Austin Allegro Vanden Plas and you see a little sign start flashing up warning you of iminent danger, thus saving your little life, think again about solar not working in this country.

    Powering 4 watts of LED lights is hardly the same as boiling a 2,000 watt kettle.

    Do I know about solar PV panels.:eek:

    I am an engineer .I know everything about everything except the things I don't know ,and my brother knows about them.;)

    Earl
     
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    cjd

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    Which confirms my numbers:

    Feed-in-tariff example calculation
    A family installs a solar PV array with a maximum output of 2.5 kW on their existing unshaded south-facing roof. The system costs £14,000, this includes a 25 year warranty extension for the inverter unit (inverters are unlikely to last 25 years without replacement or repairs). The roof produces around 2,000 kWh of electricity per year. They use 50% of the electricity directly at the time when it is produced and sell the other 50% on to the grid. They can expect to receive:

    Total electricity produced:
    2,000 kWh x 41.3p/kWh generation tariff: £826
    Electricity sold to the grid:1,000 kWh x 3p/kWh export tariff: £30
    Electricity used directly: 1,000 kWh x 12p/kWh electricity savings:£120
    Total annual income:£976

    The scheme will pay its cost back in 15 years and generate income for at least 25 years.


    A fifteen year payback on your original investment assuming that nothing goes wrong or changes. I'm out.

    (That's a fifteen year payback where 89% of the income is a SUBSIDY. As a technology, it's great; as an economically viable technology it's a total nonsense. And by subsidising it, the government has removed any incentive the PV industry had to make it more cost effective. It's insane)
     
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    A fifteen year payback on your original investment assuming that nothing goes wrong or changes. I'm out.

    If that original investment would be as an ordinary householder - I concur!

    but...

    As an installer, and as you say; "assuming that nothing goes wrong or changes" then It could be a decent model but we are assuming quite a bit here aren't we?

    Blind faith at best!
     
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