Will He Win?

[MOIC]

It's been widely reported that Graham Brady will announce a confidence vote to be triggered this morning. Will BJ survive the vote? If he does, he will be free to lead the conservatives in the next election in 2023.

Who do you think will benefit your business more, Conservatives or Labour in power?

 

[fisicx]

Makes no difference who wins or loses. Most of the country will just carry on regardless.

 

[MOIC]

Makes no difference who wins or loses. Most of the country will just carry on regardless.

Does that also apply to which party governs?

Is one party better for a specific business, given historic manifestos on taxation?

 

[Mark T Jones]

Boris's greatest strength, and the thing that will probably save him is Keir Starmer.

That, and the fact that nobody else wants the Job

 

[MOIC]

I agree on Sir Keir, however there are a few likely candidates that will 'look forward' to be leader including Liz Truss, Jeremy Hunt & Ben Wallace among others. I'd prefer to see Tom Tugendhat.

 

[fisicx]

Does that also apply to which party governs?

Is one party better for a specific business, given historic manifestos on taxation?

It doesn’t make a difference who is in power. Things just keep going. Water, electric, gas, shops, schools, police, busses, trains, hostpitsls and all the things most of us use don’t really change. Governments tinker round the edges but core services have huge inertia and are difficult to change direction.

 

[MOIC]

It doesn’t make a difference who is in power.

What about for larger businesses and inward investment?

 

[WaveJumper]

Will he win probably - there may well be a challenge but personally I think enough will back him. The thing for me is not just the UK but the US, France, Germany etc are these really the best of the best out of all the population how an earth do we get presented with these options, either totally past it and have trouble stringing a sentence together or the bubbling idiot. It does beggar belief how we all end up with these choices.

 

[MOIC]

Vote to take place this evening!

No messing about.

 

[fisicx]

What about for larger businesses and inward investment?

Like I said, for most of the country this makes little difference. Someone running a B&B in Penzance does give two hoots about inward investment or the profits made by ICI.

 

[MOIC]

I would suggest that for larger businesses (employing >500), there will be an impact on which party is in power. Not sure that someone running a B&B in Penzance would be classified as a 'large' business.

I also think that the tax regime will affect foreign companies appetite to invest in the UK.

Perhaps I'm wrong.

 

[fisicx]

The percentage of large businesses in the UK is tiny. Which is why most people don’t care who is in power. Even the employees of the large companies aren’t affected overly by a change in government.

 

[MOIC]

Large businesses employ a 1/3 of all employees in the UK. Minimum wage increases, shorter working hours, increased taxes . . . . may contribute to how large businesses view their longer term employee strategy.

 

[Ozzy]

Conservative have always generally been seen as the pro-business party but with what we have right now going on with international trade and shipping issues, the war, inflation, energy costs, and the backlog of debt, I don't think any party will relish taking it on. I also am not sure whether there is any particular benefit in either party being in power over the other right now.

Typically though, the policies of the party in power does influence and effect business. History has taught us that. Ironically my party will never get into power, I always thought I was a Tory until I did a survey to check which party policies I am aligned to - turns out I'm a Lib Dem ??

 

[MOIC]

Conservative have always generally been seen as the pro-business party but with what we have right now going on with international trade and shipping issues, the war, inflation, energy costs, and the backlog of debt, I don't think any party will relish taking it on.

Agree with this, however I don't think we can attribute the current issues surrounding international trade, shipping, lack of food supplies and oil prices on the current government. BJ's downfall was Dominic Cummings with the drip drip feeding of snippets to the media and the 'party' saga. Is it a hanging offense? Probably not.

I think Boris has had his go and it's probably time for a new leader, although I can't see anyone relishing taking on the job with the current issues, it's a no-win situation. I think this is the main reason why Labour have increased their lead over the Conservatives, they literally have to do nothing and let world events take it's course.

Will be interesting to see tonight's results, I think he'll scrape through.

 

[Ozzy]

I think he'll scrape through.

I hope so purely because UKBF has some ministerial interviews lined up and I really can't be doing with changing diaries around again, it was a pain enough already to get this sorted.

 

[UKSBD]

It's all a balancing act

1 system is better for the country but not better for the majority of individuals

1 system is better for the majority of individuals but not better for the country

Obviously the country has to do well for the individual to benefit, but likewise it's not good if the county does well without the individuals benefitting.

Sometimes it's too far one way, sometimes too far the other

If everyone was a swing voter rather than just loyal to one party it could be far better

 

[Newchodge]

1 system is better for the country but not better for the majority of individuals

1 system is better for the majority of individuals but not better for the country

If something is not 'better for the majority of indiviudlas' in what way can it be better for the country? What is the country? Do you mean the establishment?

 

[simon field]

Often, ‘the majority’ is made up of lots of ‘minorities’, all added together.

I’m amazed that anybody believes it makes any difference who has their nose in the trough!

 

[UKSBD]

If something is not 'better for the majority of indiviudlas' in what way can it be better for the country? What is the country? Do you mean the establishment?

When I say country I really mean the public purse, country's reserves, share in wealth of the country and the ones at top controlling things, which can be establishment, top 1%, politicians, big business, media, how ever you want to describe it.

Minimum wage is a good example - Over short term

Set too low - millions of individuals are far worse of but country becomes richer

Set too high - millions of individuals benefit but country becomes poorer

I quite like a split system when we have strong oppositions to balance things out

What I can't really understand is why some will vote Tory whatever the situation at the time, likewise some vote Labour whatever the situation at the time.

 

[The Byre]

I want him to stay right there where he is because -

1. He is the best recruiting sergeant for the break-up of the United Kingdom.

2. He is driving Northern Ireland into rejoining the Republic of Ireland.

3. He is making a total balls-up of Brexit.

4. He is ruining the economy, thereby bringing the great reset ever closer.

5. You can tell when he is lying.

6. He has identified all the most unpleasant and incompetent people in his party and put them in his cabinet. Now we know who to avoid in future!

7. He has reduced our expectations of what it takes to be PM to almost nothing.

8. He has reinstated the great British tradition of booing the Prime Minister.

9. He reminds me of Charles Laughton's magnificent rendition of 'The Hunchback of Notre Dame'.

10. He looks like a deformed pig. I like pigs and they taste nice.

 

[estwig]

Of course he'll win, this is the Tories drawing a line under partygate.

About time too!

 

[MOIC]

10. He looks like a deformed pig. I like pigs and they taste nice.

Now that's getting personal.

And an offence to the pig

 

[Excel-Expert]

I think Labour need Boris to survive. I think he has exhausted the public's willingness to forgive his mess-ups. With every new mess, more and more Tories seem to want to distance themselves from him. As a result, I don't think he can win a GE.

If he doesn't survive, we have to ask who will replace him and I don't see anyone in the cabinet who isn't Boris 2.0. But they might scrape a GE if the wind is in the right direction. To stand a real chance of winning a GE they need to bring in a dynamic unknown who can shake things up. Sadly I don't see that happening.

On the flipside, I don't see Labour as being in a position to capitalise on the current situation.

 

[simon field]

I want him to stay right there where he is because -

1. He is the best recruiting sergeant for the break-up of the United Kingdom.

2. He is driving Northern Ireland into rejoining the Republic of Ireland.

3. He is making a total balls-up of Brexit.

4. He is ruining the economy, thereby bringing the great reset ever closer.

5. You can tell when he is lying.

6. He has identified all the most unpleasant and incompetent people in his party and put them in his cabinet. Now we know who to avoid in future!

7. He has reduced our expectations of what it takes to be PM to almost nothing.

8. He has reinstated the great British tradition of booing the Prime Minister.

9. He reminds me of Charles Laughton's magnificent rendition of 'The Hunchback of Notre Dame'.

10. He looks like a deformed pig. I like pigs and they taste nice.

11. It’s difficult to accept his accusations of the Russian government lying to its people when this idiot is doing the exact same thing!

 

[Fagin2021]

I want him to stay right there where he is because -

1. He is the best recruiting sergeant for the break-up of the United Kingdom.

2. He is driving Northern Ireland into rejoining the Republic of Ireland.

3. He is making a total balls-up of Brexit.

4. He is ruining the economy, thereby bringing the great reset ever closer.

5. You can tell when he is lying.

6. He has identified all the most unpleasant and incompetent people in his party and put them in his cabinet. Now we know who to avoid in future!

7. He has reduced our expectations of what it takes to be PM to almost nothing.

8. He has reinstated the great British tradition of booing the Prime Minister.

9. He reminds me of Charles Laughton's magnificent rendition of 'The Hunchback of Notre Dame'.

10. He looks like a deformed pig. I like pigs and they taste nice.

Now, now. Don't sugar-coat it. Say what you mean.

I once got part-way through setting up a political party until I got bored and gave up. The name of the party was intended to be 'The Resentful Citizen' with a Kitchener style logo (Your Country needs you!) asking "Are you a Resentful Citizen?''

Can't help feeling it would've swept the board.

 

[Bob Morgan]

My father sacked him!

 

[The Byre]

I believe he's been sacked many times - mostly for lying.

 

[MOIC]

So, he's survived.

Where does this leave the Conservative party?

Not far short of self destruction.

 

[Excel-Expert]

So, he's survived.

Where does this leave the Conservative party?

Not far short of self destruction.

I will give it a month before he throws in the towel

 

[MOIC]

I will give it a month before he throws in the towel

I give it till October.

 

[Excel-Expert]

I don't think he will last that long. Those MPs that want him out can now smell blood and can easily engineer situations that will make life really uncomfortable for him.

Plus those MPs that voted to save him, now have to explain to their voters why they saved him. The polls suggest over 50% of Tory supporters want Boris gone. Can those MPs afford to lose any of that 50% of voters at the next GE? When that sinks in will they try to rectify things by joining the rebels?

All guess work of course

 

[Ian J]

I'm looking forward to Prime Ministers Question Time

 

[fisicx]

Who would want the job right now? A recession looming means it’s a poisoned chalice. Better to leave Boris in place until everyone is out of work and can’t pay their mortgage then let a new leader fix everything.

 

[WaveJumper]

Of course he'll win, this is the Tories drawing a line under partygate.

About time too!

Agree all a set up

 

[MOIC]

I'm looking forward to Prime Ministers Question Time

100 Conservatives crossing the divide?

 

[WaveJumper]

100 Conservatives crossing the divide?

I think quite a few rebels will be looking over their shoulders now lets see how long it take Boris and the team to get the knives out

 

[Ian J]

100 Conservatives crossing the divide?

No that won't happen but Keir Starmer will make a big thing of it and Boris will try his usual trick of deflecting by not actually answering the question but answering questions instead that hadn't been asked.

His favourite answer is that he is more interested in with getting on with the jobs that the people really want sorted whereas the truth is that the people would rather that those jobs were sorted but by someone else

 

[Excel-Expert]

I think quite a few rebels will be looking over their shoulders now lets see how long it take Boris and the team to get the knives out

I doubt it, they now have the upper hand. Their number is double the Tory majority, and any action against them will result in them voting against Boris in the house. Without their support, Boris is paralysed. Boris should now be more worried that they will vote with the opposition on key votes, making him a powerless lame duck PM. If they do that he could be out in a month or two.

 

[simon field]

Bet sir kier caviar is relieved - without this posh privileged twonk in charge, he’d be a busted flush ?