Who's Next & How long Will They Last?

[MOIC]

The Conservative party have imploded, mostly due to lies, (very) poor politicians, as well as Dominic Cummings' ambition to bring Boris & the government down, and instigated Partygate, which was completely overblown in the grand scheme of governing the country.

Boris or Rishi? (No disrespect to Penny, but I don't think she has the charisma, or in-depth experience that's needed to be a PM).

Who would you prefer and why?

How long will they last with today's press?

 

[fisicx]

Does it really matter? The economy it broken, worldwide recession is on its way with probable energy shortages and increased food prices. Whoever is the PM will be remembered an the same way Callahan was. Which is why labour don’t really want a general election.

 

[MOIC]

Does it really matter? The economy it broken, worldwide recession is on its way with probable energy shortages and increased food prices. Whoever is the PM will be remembered an the same way Callahan was. Which is why labour don’t really want a general election.

They'll both have different views and will select a different cabinet, which will ultimately affect the direction Britain heads during the next 2 years. This will affect the pound, which has an important impact on both imports & exports. If you're an importer, the past 2 years have been challenging, especially the past couple of months. Will either candidate help to strengthen the pound?

 

[The Byre]

There is nothing any incoming government can do - the options for choice are all blown! The Lettuce and KK took a bad but survivable economic situation and made it far, far worse by not understanding how the bond markets work.

Within months, the UK government will be spending £100bn p.a. on 'economic activity' (ONS euphemism for interest payments on gilts, i.e. gov. bonds). The costs of borrowing just escalate because the old 5-yr gilts with low fixed coupons and being rolled over to coupons (i.e. interest payments) indexed to RPI - ouch!

There is also something mighty strange going on within the Swiss swap-lines market that happens every Wednesday - but I shall post a separate thread on that one. But the last time that the anonymous Swiss swap-line markets exploded in activity was during the 2008 GFC - another ouch!

 

[MOIC]

Of all the candidates, Rishi has the best chance of lifting the country from the dire straits it finds itself, whether he can develop the solution process within 2 years and before the next election will be difficult, but progress needs to be seen. It's a thankless task for any leader of any party at this stage.


I think he'll keep chipping away at Labour's lead over the next 2 years and will lead the Conservatives in much better shape than they are now.


Labour will keep on using the same old issues including his wealth, green card, wife's tax status, heritage, part of Bj's cabinet, drank at a party . . . .


Rishi was the last candidate Labour would have wanted to see as PM, as he understands the economy better than any other politician. He is confident and will grow in stature, IMHO.


One thing is for sure, he will not please all the people all of the time, but let's hope he strikes the right balance.

 

[Fagin2021]

Personally, I'd like to see Sunak propose legislation to join the Single Market and Customs Union on the condition that all parties (Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP, DUP, Plaid etc) are given a free vote on the matter.

 

[Bob Morgan]

In the last few hours, Braverman's position is beginning to look rather precarious.

 

[NickGrogan]

Personally, I'd like to see Sunak propose legislation to join the Single Market and Customs Union on the condition that all parties (Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP, DUP, Plaid etc) are given a free vote on the matter.

Is that even an option? Have they us back and under what terms? Looking at how badly we managed to negotiate to exit, I doubt we'd do better at negotiating entry.

Would you give up the Pound to join the Euro?

 

[Fagin2021]

Is that even an option? Have they us back and under what terms? Looking at how badly we managed to negotiate to exit, I doubt we'd do better at negotiating entry.

Would you give up the Pound to join the Euro?

I didn't mean re-join the EU. Now that 'Global Britain' has proved a mirage, the 'Sunny Uplands' have proven unreachable and the 'Brexit Dividend' unpayable, it might be time to rethink our trading arrangements (which wouldn't involve a choice between the Pound and the Euro).

Whether of not this is possible I couldn't say but it seems sensible to establish the principle first, then haggle about the details.

 

[IanSuth]

I didn't mean re-join the EU. Now that 'Global Britain' has proved a mirage, the 'Sunny Uplands' have proven unreachable and the 'Brexit Dividend' unpayable, it might be time to rethink our trading arrangements (which wouldn't involve a choice between the Pound and the Euro).

Whether of not this is possible I couldn't say but it seems sensible to establish the principle first, then haggle about the details.

Yeah EFTA would be an option - personally i think it is the worst as you have to take the rules (in practice if not in theory) despite having no input into their setting and you have to pay for the privilege BUT

Having proved we are not ready for a low tax low benefit dog eat dog country, Singapore-on-Thames is ruled out thus the only other option if we cant compete with the EU by undercutting is to get back in the SM asap (as we can't compete on economy of scale or lower workforce costs either)

I think EFTA membership would be a formality, Farage/UKIP/Reform would stamp their feet but the majority who backed leave could save face by saying t was still outside of the EU and we would regain some of what was lost with regards to ease of trade

 

[James Woodham]

Does it really matter? The economy it broken, worldwide recession is on its way with probable energy shortages and increased food prices. Whoever is the PM will be remembered an the same way Callahan was.

Respectfully, this is a very bad take.

It does matter— markets, businesses and voters believe it too. PMs have influence and can make difficult situations worse. If it's broken, then who broke it?

Which is why labour don’t really want a general election.

Labour have apparently been screaming for a general election for like forever, and after the current drama it's now deafening.

 

[NickGrogan]

Respectfully, this is a very bad take.

It does matter— markets, businesses and voters believe it too. PMs have influence and can make difficult situations worse. If it's broken, then who broke it?



Labour have apparently been screaming for a general election for like forever, and after the current drama it's now deafening.

Who broke it? We did.
Labour screaming for an election and Labour wanting an election aren't the same thing. If they actually wanted one they'd be telling us what their actual policies are on everything. Now they're just saying it should be us.

 

[Newchodge]

Yeah EFTA would be an option - personally i think it is the worst as you have to take the rules (in practice if not in theory) despite having no input into their setting and you have to pay for the privilege BUT

Having proved we are not ready for a low tax low benefit dog eat dog country, Singapore-on-Thames is ruled out thus the only other option if we cant compete with the EU by undercutting is to get back in the SM asap (as we can't compete on economy of scale or lower workforce costs either)

I think EFTA membership would be a formality, Farage/UKIP/Reform would stamp their feet but the majority who backed leave could save face by saying t was still outside of the EU and we would regain some of what was lost with regards to ease of trade

It was also one of the things that Leave supporters said we would have.

 

[James Woodham]

Who broke it? We did.

We who and how? Further, is the government entirely absolved?

Labour screaming for an election and Labour wanting an election aren't the same thing. If they actually wanted one they'd be telling us what their actual policies are on everything. Now they're just saying it should be us.

Their lack of substantial policy definition has nothing to do with winning or wanting a general election. That's irrefutable, you can hear the Labour cries for one a mile off, and it's been this way for a while.

If there's a paucity of policy it still unsurprisingly wouldn't be a blocker to unseating the Tories, as they really have been bad enough to leave much of the electorate quite 'desperate' for change.