What does the near future hold?

[thebigIAM]

I think it's a fair question, are these times worse than the early 1980s?

Every era has its own particular slant on some familiar problems, but just going on my personal memories, I think things were worse in the early 1980s. The first three months after the Lehman collapse did stand out as being pretty spectacular, though.

Looking further back, and though I didn't worry about it overmuch as a child, I bet the three day week of the 1970s was even worse than the early 1980s. I also have a hazy recollection of petrol being rationed back then.

Go back even further. The Second World War, maybe. By those standards we have things pretty cushy right now.

It's tough, but it's still a good time to do business.

We've definitely found trading in the South easier than trading in the North right now.

 

[directmarketingadvice]

I don't remember western European countries being on the brink of bankruptcy (or even W European banks) in the 1980s.

This is on a totally different scale.

Steve

 

[Quicksilver]

Well, presently I would say we aren't in a recession. Everyone locally seems over-run with work. I can't find people that want or need work and more work keeps coming in. Infact, people that I've tried to employee have been given huge pay rises by their present employers to stop them leaving. That would suggest to me that even the competition are busy and expect to stay that way.
So, I'm going to plough on with expansion plans, I think we're passed the worst, people are spending money and there is no reason why they will stop. Interest rates will go up, deposit amounts will come down, banks will then start lending again, houses will start selling again.
And I plan to be in a position to make the most of it.

 

[newsvend]

If you are fortunate enough to be in a position to trade or operate abroad, particularly in the East, you may well be finding the road much smoother. Many less developed countries are buzzing with investment and M&A activity right now. It's a good time to be thinking about markets abroad if you're not already doing so.

 

[hmmm]

............

 

[MASSEY]

People are still spending on their homes in a big way. The last 2 years have been great for me.

For me the recession has been fantastic, no negatives just positives.

 

[Lucan Unlordly]

The near future?

Not too sure but talking to somebody who works on cyber intelligence for the MOD, China and India both have booming economies are lightyears ahead of us in terms of potential to use cyber warfare and are being watched very closely as the worlds heirarchy is changing rapidly.

 

[Philip Hoyle]

I think the media are blowing the "recession" out of proportion. It's becomming a kind of self fulfilling prophecy. Very few of my clients and other people I talk to are "suffering" as such - OK a few have pay freezes, the odd one has lost their job, and some businesses are showing declining sales/profits, but the majority are doing OK, and some are doing very well.

I've just completed an analysis of sales and profits of my client base, comparing the 2011 year end accounts against those for 2010 year ends and 2009 year ends. My client base is diverse, with retails (B&M and online), light industry, consultants, hospitality, trades and other service providers, about half local (NW England) and half national (London S/E mostly).

I see no downward trends overall, neither locally nor nationally, nor any downward trends in any particular sector. I've one retailer who's sales & profits are rising steadily year on year, yet another who's are falling. Hospitality seems to be holding up well with all clients showing increases in sales and profits. I've got a local electrician showing increases and another local electrician showing falls. Consultants and other professionals are fairly steady on average, no particular trends upwards nor downwards.

What is interesting in the the one client showing the greatest growth in both sales and profits is a retailer and the one client showing the greatest fall in profits is a children's nursery.

Overall quite a mixed bag. In total, turnover and profits of the entire client base are up by a few percentage points, but that hides some clients with annual growth of 25%-50% and others with annual falls of 10%-25%.

 

[internetspaceships]

Someone posted a thread up last month where they asked how people were doing this year. There were a few good points raised on that too.

I think Steve Gibson is correct, people have realised (ourselves included) that we now HAVE to market in order to keep growing a business. Especially if you've actually drawn up a plan as to where you want to be in 5 years.

As to this year.....

The market place appears to have lost it's old trends. Whereas most industries could look at given months and say "that's going to be our bad months" and work around them, these "months" havent materialised whilst some traditionally good months haven't happened either.

There doesn't appear to be the same steady business flow either. It seems to be feast or famine. A couple of weeks of hyperactiivity follewd by a couple of weeks almost in the doldrums. I appreciate that this won't be the same for all trades, however I can only add my own perspective so please take that into account.

We are certainly doing better. Sales are up over £500,000 in the first seven months of the year although there has been a slight degradation in the overall margins.

We have many many larger companies going out of business still, and for every one of these there is a raft of smaller business liquidations further down the supply chain. As such I really believe that we are still not seeing the full impact of the recession even though for some of us business is booming.

I think it's a very fragile economy and will remain so for a couple of years at least, and I believe that people need to work smarter in order to come out of it all in one piece.

I think the more pro-active and adaptable companies will be the winners.

I hope that wasn't too much of a wall of text on a Saturday morning.

Regards

Jon

 

[MH1]

I agree with Steve, and personally think the Western countries peoples have yet to even begin to understand the level of debt their countries are in.

Things have never been potentially worse, the real question is whether these problems will be tackled deliberately or forced onto the countries. As with anything, there will be winners and losers, but mainly losers in the long run.

 

[Remote Resources]

£25 per week in the 80's?
A family member of mine works in this sector now and the kids get £30 per week as it's classed as education - but they're working almost 40 hour weeks in care homes etc. I think the situation is worse now.
I would rather be earning £25 per week in 1989 than £30 per week in 2011. Oh, and that £30 per week is based on PARENTAL incomes, so not all 16-18's are entitled to it.

 

[hmmm]

i dont think things are any more expensive than in 89 .
pub beer is i give you that. shop beer and vodka is cheap .i dont see any difference with things that a 16-18 year old would buy now to back then.clothes are cheap as chips but chips cost more now than back then . a yts worked 4days a week and 1 day at tech/college,is see no difference in my world, considering its been over 20years.
the fact i see no difference tells me another story

 

[Remote Resources]

i dont think things are any more expensive than in 89 .
pub beer is i give you that. shop beer and vodka is cheap .i dont see any difference with things that a 16-18 year old would buy now to back then.clothes are cheap as chips but chips cost more now than back then . a yts worked 4days a week and 1 day at tech/college,is see no difference in my world, considering its been over 20years.
the fact i see no difference tells me another story

Mars bars, rent, council tax, bus fares, petrol, water rates, electricity, gas, food(!). The only things that are cheaper now are clothes from Primark and Nintendos. Last time I ate a Nintendo for lunch, granted, I couldn't fit anything else in for a week, so yes, I did save money on food that week. Problem is, at over £100, it was the last Nintendo I ever ate.

Considering a Mars bar alone has seen an increase of over 200% and yet YT money (EMA) has only increased by 20% sort of bears out that that everyday prices have inflated hugely while young school leavers are getting the equivelant of a night out to live on each week. And again, that's only if their parents are on a low wage. If household income is over about 30k (in a two parent household that's both earning only 15K), the 'student' actually gets a grand total of 0 (excepting the £20 Child benefit) for working a lot of hours - the most common being care home and admin work.

 

[hmmm]

i dont see many 16-18 yr olds paying for electric gas water council tax,petrol and many other thing mentioned.mars bars are 4 for a pound in the super markets = 25p each not much difference there.if you buy from the corner shop it will cost anything from 50p to 75.so as always its shop around.
i had to live on £25 a week as i didnt live at home.

 

[Dave Kinnel]

If household income is over about 30k (in a two parent household that's both earning only 15K), the 'student' actually gets a grand total of 0 (excepting the £20 Child benefit) for working a lot of hours - the most common being care home and admin work.

Not like the good old days in the 80's when students got what was it, oh yea £0.00. Just because a student's chosen subject requires a great deal of practical work doesn't mean they are actually employed.

I'm trying to think what it was I had to do to get money whilst studying, oh yes, work after college and at weekends. My eldest daughter worked for her money whilst at college and my youngest who has just started at college is also working part time. There are plenty of part time jobs out there for those that want them.

So off topic, but why are we paying any students any money at all?

On topic, the economy will get worse before it gets better as very many people have stopped using credit cards. Give it ten years or so for people to get their finances in order and live within their means and things will improve generally.

 

[Podge]

So if in your opinion there has been little change could you live on £25 a week now whilst not living at home?

 

[hmmm]

i couldnt live on that money then no. i had a boss that slipped a little extra to me otherwise no .theres no way i could of managed

 

[Remote Resources]

Not like the good old days in the 80's when students got what was it, oh yea £0.00. Just because a student's chosen subject requires a great deal of practical work doesn't mean they are actually employed.

I'm trying to think what it was I had to do to get money whilst studying, oh yes, work after college and at weekends. My eldest daughter worked for her money whilst at college and my youngest who has just started at college is also working part time. There are plenty of part time jobs out there for those that want them.

So off topic, but why are we paying any students any money at all?

On topic, the economy will get worse before it gets better as very many people have stopped using credit cards. Give it ten years or so for people to get their finances in order and live within their means and things will improve generally.

We're not talking about paying students here though. We're talking about paying people who are actually working, pretty much full time although they do get that sought after achievement, the NVQ at the end of it. We're talking about people working in hard jobs on £30 a week, if they're lucky - many on 0. We're talking about the modern day equivalent of the YTS - except worse.

I also worked a lot when at Sixth form and at University - we didn't get EMA - I don't agree with that at all. But you are suggesting someone who works almost full time in a care home should then go out and waitress on an evening to make a living wage and I don't agree with that at all. If you are adding value to an organisation, you are working for them, and should get at least enough to live on and it shouldn't be income assessed on your parents either.

 

[Dave Kinnel]

We're not talking about paying students here though. We're talking about paying people who are actually working, pretty much full time although they do get that sought after achievement, the NVQ at the end of it. We're talking about people working in hard jobs on £30 a week, if they're lucky - many on 0. We're talking about the modern day equivalent of the YTS - except worse.

I also worked a lot when at Sixth form and at University - we didn't get EMA - I don't agree with that at all. But you are suggesting someone who works almost full time in a care home should then go out and waitress on an evening to make a living wage and I don't agree with that at all. If you are adding value to an organisation, you are working for them, and should get at least enough to live on and it shouldn't be income assessed on your parents either.

They are working toward a NVQ, so it's education just mainly practical rather than theory in this case. Should someone getting this NVQ in a care home be paid, yet someone getting a NVQ in marketing not? NVQ's are generally achieved alongside a job or full time education anyway.

Yes I am suggesting that if the student wants money they work for it, why should they be paid to get that NVQ?

 

[Jonah2012]

Governemental views differ from those of the socials. Some socials people of the world do not enjoy change, others are exicited with the future, for me either is ok. The real lives for us after we have reached a certain makes some of us believe that nohting is as importnat as the times before. I guess those who have lead a decent life and even those who haven't are pleased to be home and in an environment that is lead by a govenment that does or is supposed to care.

I'm unemployed or should i mnetion unemployable, the agencies tell me that there is no work for me, they need specialists. That's not there fault they provide work for the public but for me to be told that I am not worth my weight in gold is as i mentioned above non reflective of how i feel.

Some socials believe that the life they have lead is as good as it get's, that's something compared to a life that was something and there nothing left. As far as unemployement goes when the government runs out of funds, whish could happen it comes back to one solution and that's live with the family and then off the land, hence the farmers of countries protect their land with total respect.

Business future and funds depend on the future of a country and the businesses that are within that country need to have a good understanding that to be on a land that is ours the citizens the internal businesses need somewhere and something to sell. Everyone can't sell fram products there's not enough land.

When and if the finacial situation remains or for worse remains the way it was previous in reccession, that means a double reccession an the future of the country is in dire straights and then needs to be funded by other countries, something buisness could or are interested in for the upkeeping of there businesses.

The problem with this is when a country is need, the loss of respect becomes worse, we become governed by the power of money. This would not be bad idea when borrowers have a social business plan that outlines the whole world finance. There would be one power but no alies. This would mean a business world market that buys from each other almost like one currency. Thats like a wold bank without the need for lot's of banks. The trust here would be second to none and markets across the world governed by the trusted country with the finaces to create this envirnmant would not collapse because the whole world would trade as a unit.

 

[Remote Resources]

They are working toward a NVQ, so it's education just mainly practical rather than theory in this case. Should someone getting this NVQ in a care home be paid, yet someone getting a NVQ in marketing not? NVQ's are generally achieved alongside a job or full time education anyway.

Yes I am suggesting that if the student wants money they work for it, why should they be paid to get that NVQ?

Because the NVQ part is a ruse - people have been managing to clean up cr*p for thousands of years without a formal qualification. They are being used as cheap (or free) labour - no more or less. If you don't see it that way, that's fine. Each to their own.

 

[Remote Resources]

Governemental views differ from those of the socials. Some socials people of the world do not enjoy change, others are exicited with the future, for me either is ok. The real lives for us after we have reached a certain makes some of us believe that nohting is as importnat as the times before. I guess those who have lead a decent life and even those who haven't are pleased to be home and in an environment that is lead by a govenment that does or is supposed to care.

I'm unemployed or should i mnetion unemployable, the agencies tell me that there is no work for me, they need specialists. That's not there fault they provide work for the public but for me to be told that I am not worth my weight in gold is as i mentioned above non reflective of how i feel.

Some socials believe that the life they have lead is as good as it get's, that's something compared to a life that was something and there nothing left. As far as unemployement goes when the government runs out of funds, whish could happen it comes back to one solution and that's live with the family and then off the land, hence the farmers of countries protect their land with total respect.

Business future and funds depend on the future of a country and the businesses that are within that country need to have a good understanding that to be on a land that is ours the citizens the internal businesses need somewhere and something to sell. Everyone can't sell fram products there's not enough land.

When and if the finacial situation remains or for worse remains the way it was previous in reccession, that means a double reccession an the future of the country is in dire straights and then needs to be funded by other countries, something buisness could or are interested in for the upkeeping of there businesses.

The problem with this is when a country is need, the loss of respect becomes worse, we become governed by the power of money. This would not be bad idea when borrowers have a social business plan that outlines the whole world finance. There would be one power but no alies. This would mean a business world market that buys from each other almost like one currency. Thats like a wold bank without the need for lot's of banks. The trust here would be second to none and markets across the world governed by the trusted country with the finaces to create this envirnmant would not collapse because the whole world would trade as a unit.

Is it bad that I haven't got the foggiest what you are trying to say? You might want to be a bit more direct.

 

[directmarketingadvice]

Not like the good old days in the 80's when students got what was it, oh yea £0.00.

Students got grants back in the 1980s and had no tuition fees.

(BTW, that wasn't a "Scottish thing" - and I didn't get a grant.)

You could also sign on in the summer and get dole money.

Steve

 

[Dave Kinnel]

Because the NVQ part is a ruse - people have been managing to clean up cr*p for thousands of years without a formal qualification. They are being used as cheap (or free) labour - no more or less. If you don't see it that way, that's fine. Each to their own.

So why are these people you know doing it?

You can get a job as a carer tomorrow with no qualifications at the age of 19 for £7.50 an hour plus mileage, would this not be a better route towards their chosen career?

Back on topic this is probably one area that won't be to effected by the current downturn.

 

[Remote Resources]

So why are these people you know doing it?

You can get a job as a carer tomorrow with no qualifications at the age of 19 for £7.50 an hour plus mileage, would this not be a better route towards their chosen career?

Back on topic this is probably one area that won't be to effected by the current downturn.

I don't know - my family member works for an organisation that offers these placements and gets paid for them and it infuriates her what is happening. As for the students - well, if they can't get into college, can't stay at schools and can't claim the dole, I guess they're left with few options really.

No it won't be affected by the downturn - more kids will find their way down this route no doubt. The post initially was in response to the fact that these are kept off the unemployment figures and something else about £25 per week that I've lost track of now.

 

[Dave Kinnel]

Students got grants back in the 1980s and had no tuition fees.

(BTW, that wasn't a "Scottish thing" - and I didn't get a grant.)

You could also sign on in the summer and get dole money.

Steve

That's true, and then we called it dole money, not jobseekers or other such twoddle to make you feel better about claiming it!

 

[directmarketingadvice]

That's true, and then we called it dole money, not jobseekers or other such twoddle to make you feel better about claiming it!

I can't even remember what the proper name for it was (back in 1988). "Unemployment benefit"?

I just remember walking down to the local office each fortnight that summer to sign on, and no-one ever asking if I was doing something to find a job.

Steve

 

[internetspaceships]

Yep, the name of the form to apply for it became a very famous band from Birmingham....

 

[MASSEY]

I agree with Steve, and personally think the Western countries peoples have yet to even begin to understand the level of debt their countries are in.

Things have never been potentially worse, the real question is whether these problems will be tackled deliberately or forced onto the countries. As with anything, there will be winners and losers, but mainly losers in the long run.

But what do you think is going to happen when people "understand the real level of debt".

How is it going to affect you?

So far the only thing in the whole recession / downturn to affect me was the council collecting one of my bins every other week.

What will happen next? Council tax go up a pound

The way i look at it is there are more people with money than people without.

If things really hit the **** in Europe and the UK has a situation they'll just print more money.

I can actually see interest rates going down to 0.25% or even 0% in the next 12 months, i hope they do anyway.

 

[and180y]

............... and Nintendos. Last time I ate a Nintendo for lunch, granted, I couldn't fit anything else in for a week, so yes, I did save money on food that week. Problem is, at over £100, it was the last Nintendo I ever ate.

Never had one of them, what is it?

 

[directmarketingadvice]

But what do you think is going to happen when people "understand the real level of debt".

- A lot of fear and a reluctance to spend money they don't need to spent.

- A reluctance to lend money and the calling in of a lot of debts. (Many of which will be defaulted.)

- Which means a big contraction in the economy.

- Which means more unemployment

- Which means more fear, less spending and lots of "homeowners" defaulting on their homes

- Which means falling house prices and failing banks

... and so on.

How is it going to affect you?

The above would affect all of us.

If things really hit the **** in Europe and the UK has a situation they'll just print more money.

The problem will be that they won't be able to get people to spend that money.

I can actually see interest rates going down to 0.25% or even 0% in the next 12 months, i hope they do anyway.

The notion of an "interest rate" that is a benchmark for all lending is going out the window.

Money has to be parked somewhere. The safe havens will pay next to nothing in interest. The risky places will pay a fortune.

We're already seeing that with Greek 2-year bonds paying 50%+ while US 2-year bonds paying almost nothing.

So, yes, for some, interest rates could go to zero. But for most, they could go through the roof.

Steve

 

[Jonah2012]

I was reading the infromation on NVQ. I gained two NVQ at class 3 ans 4 level in managent but never applied for them. Two both NVQ's stood along two managment qualifications one which is NEBS (National Board Education Scotland and the other is IMS (Institute in Management Scotland) These qualification and what i believe a hard earnt study of my own knowledge to gain them, but the businesses and employment I apply for never want to view them because both certificates are either not worth the paper there written on or the new businesses of todat prefer to employ none certified employees to enter their own training system.

Just to round this up, I have a a certificate in MVS (Motor Vehicle Studies) This was done with a YTS (Youth Training Sceme) I have ner utilised these certificates either. I also a teaching qualification certificate that allows me to teach overseas, something I have done for year, so consider this far more important than the earler mentioned certificates.

Education in the United Kingdom was considered the best in the world, but it seems as students leave for university ect and spend thousands on further education, they remain unemployed, so who's the winner here. I was lucky in some respect, the education that I enrolled on was paid for by the businesses that trained me or sen me to college ect.

I'm unemployed now which for me is fine, never was a big money person but enjoy my social life. With all the knowledge I have has deemed me unemployable and workinf for knowone.

 

[Quicksilver]

Jonah, You have a teaching certificate???

 

[MASSEY]

- A lot of fear and a reluctance to spend money they don't need to spent.

- A reluctance to lend money and the calling in of a lot of debts. (Many of which will be defaulted.)

- Which means a big contraction in the economy.

- Which means more unemployment

- Which means more fear, less spending and lots of "homeowners" defaulting on their homes

- Which means falling house prices and failing banks

... and so on.

The above would affect all of us.

This has been the situation for over two years now. As i said i still have yet to feel any pain and we officially came out of recession.

What more is there to come? Is it really worse than what we have already seen?

 

[Quicksilver]

Massey, my thoughts exactly! I'm was just trying to get a feeling for what people think is going to happen now and into next year. It seems to have turned into ramblings about the 80's and NVQ's here!

 

[Jeff FV]

Writing from purely my own perspective as a member of 'Joe Public' (and ignoring my (o/h's) business, which is growing nicely, but may have been growing faster in better financial times?)

I am more worried about my financial position than I was 2 years ago: pay freeze, possible/probable increase in my pension contributions, energy prices set to rise next month all leave me with much less cash to spend. Couple that with a reduced sense of job security. 2 years ago (or whenever) when we went into recession it wasn't so bad - interest rates came down (& thankfully stayed down) and as long as you stayed in your job, things were OK, or maybe even good. Now, though, the bite is about to take hold and lots of people are going to find things a lot tougher, and I don't think it is just the media hyping things.

Jeff

 

[Podge]

Spot on Jeff.

The recession affects different groups in different ways. It's not all about how much money you have in your pocket.

 

[directmarketingadvice]

i still have yet to feel any pain and we officially came out of recession.

Whether GDP is growing or contracting is a poor measure of the health of an economy - that's because it's a stat a government can "game" by running a big deficit.

So the fact we came out of recession isn't something I personally attach any real importance to. The figure I look at is the GDP adjusted to take account of the deficit.

Steve

 

[MASSEY]

Writing from purely my own perspective as a member of 'Joe Public' (and ignoring my (o/h's) business, which is growing nicely, but may have been growing faster in better financial times?)

I am more worried about my financial position than I was 2 years ago: pay freeze, possible/probable increase in my pension contributions, energy prices set to rise next month all leave me with much less cash to spend. Couple that with a reduced sense of job security. 2 years ago (or whenever) when we went into recession it wasn't so bad - interest rates came down (& thankfully stayed down) and as long as you stayed in your job, things were OK, or maybe even good. Now, though, the bite is about to take hold and lots of people are going to find things a lot tougher, and I don't think it is just the media hyping things.

Jeff

You're highlighting the issue, people still seem unsure as to whether the world is in economic melt down or are things pretty much the same as they have always been for the majority of people.

The trouble is the media blowing stuff out of proportion in my opinion and the average joe thinks "better stop spending money".

You shouldn't worry anyway with that teachers salary and all those days off with that massive pension an all

 

[Jonah2012]

Jonah, You have a teaching certificate???

Yes but have taught in so many countries that I have a mixed language soz .. if you didn't get the post, I have just come back from a massive trip.

I hope you like me though