Track & trace

[Interestedobserver]

I did think of phoning your mate Neil "half a million deaths" Ferguson, but I didn't think he'd appreciate my call.
I'd have hoped you were going to write something useful as I am actually in a slightly awkward position with my staff.

Don't tell me you still believe the T Cell and Herd Immunity BS these guys were spouting?

I will take it back. Their graphs aren't even as good as yours Justin?

 

[Justin Smith]

I'd structure the business to make sure that wasn't possible, which you appear to have done.
I'd certainly not avoid getting tested, thinking that's going to help anything.

Funnily enough I have just picked up my wife's car rom the garage and I was chatting to the owner who I have known for a very long time, he said he wouldn't get tested either, particularly now that nearly all the vulnerable have been tested. Without any prompting from me he said he thought T&T is a massive waste of money, especially now.
This may not be what you would do, or what you want to hear, but that's what it is like in the real world. And is why T&T was never ever, in a million years, going to get rid of Covid. Far from its performance improving with fewer cases to deal with it will get worse if anything because a higher percentage of people won't want anything to do with it when they see the death stats on the floor for week after week, which they will be without any doubt.

I'd structure the business to make sure that wasn't possible, which you appear to have done.
Not everyone can do that. And in my own case it was supposed to be temporary, my two staff are not happy having to work like that, working just one full day on their own one week, then most days the following. I have no doubt they will continue making their feelings known.

 

[Justin Smith]

Don't tell me you still believe the T Cell and Herd Immunity BS these guys were spouting?

I will take it back. Their graphs aren't even as good as yours Justin?

You are right, my graph proving that either London does have significantly more immunity (to Covid) than the rest of the UK, or the "Kent strain" was just a massive over egged omlette.
Which is it ? But if you want to answer that maybe do so in another thread ? This is supposed to be about T&T.....

 

[Justin Smith]

You will probably make more profit the week you don't open the shop?

We send out orders from, err, the shop..... That's where all the stock and packing materials are, and where the carrier and the RM pick up from.

 

[jpjj]

With hindsight this guy was clearly talking total bollox

Simon please tell me you've seen the light and no longer follow him on social media?

Ah Mike Yeadon - a bit more difficult to follow on social media these days.

I read the other day that his twitter account had been deleted after it was noticed there were a load of vitriolic racist comments on it from prior to the coronavirus episode. He is alleged to be claiming it's all a conspiracy as his account must have been hacked to add these posts retrospectively in attempts to discredit and silence him, and he has lost a load of his advisory income as a result of this persecution.

However there are a lot of rather questionable posts still visible on the archive.org version of his account dating to the time in question.

 

[Interestedobserver]

We send out orders from, err, the shop..... That's where all the stock and packing materials are, and where the carrier and the RM pick up from.

A retail store is an expensive place to send out orders from though isn't it?

 

[Justin Smith]

A retail store is an expensive place to send out orders from though isn't it?

Not really, in fact it's the cheapest because I bought the property 25 years ago and it has two flats with tenants (paying rent) upstairs ! Buying that shop was undoubtedly the best business decision I ever made, even if it was hard, particularly as I took out a 10 year mortgage and paid extra to fix the interest rate for the term, then all the interest rates dropped !

 

[Interestedobserver]

Your lack of logic above shouldn't surprise me

You are totally unable to adapt or change anything aren't you?

You've had the shop 25 years. You don't need it. But you keep it anyway. Because it's your normal.

It's all making sense now.

I'm off to Google what the term is for your condition

 

[Interestedobserver]

I think you are suffering from something called adjustment disorder Justin?

Symptoms

1. Feeling sad, hopeless or not enjoying things you used to enjoy
2. Worrying or feeling anxious, nervous, jittery or stressed out.
3. Feeling overwhelmed.

What do you reckon Justin?

Am I on to something or not?

 

[Justin Smith]

I think you are suffering from something called adjustment disorder Justin?
SymptomsFeeling sad, hopeless or not enjoying things you used to enjoy

1. Worrying or feeling anxious, nervous, jittery or stressed out.
2. Feeling overwhelmed.

Whatdo you reckon Justin?
Am I on to something or not?

Absolutely spot on, and it's because I'm living under draconian restrictions on my freedoms, you didn't need to look on Google, I could have told you that. Worse still, apparently, there are significant numbers of people who seem to be reasonably happy to do so, which is very unfortunate because it means those draconian restrictions on our freedoms will last longer than they should. maybe even forever.
The only thing which surprises me is that more people aren't thoroughly annoyed and angry by the whole thing.

 

[Justin Smith]

Your lack of logic above shouldn't surprise me
You are totally unable to adapt or change anything aren't you?
You've had the shop 25 years. You don't need it. But you keep it anyway. Because it's your normal.

I have a property which, basically, pays me £800 a month odd in rents with shop thrown in for very little cost. In fact, because the demand for shops is at record lows the opportunity cost of me using the shop is possibly nothing at all, I don't even pay rates on it because I'm covered by small business rates relief. And you say I should sell the shop and rent a factory unit !
What are you talking about ?
Do you actually know anything about business ?

 

[NickGrogan]

I'd structure the business to make sure that wasn't possible, which you appear to have done.
Not everyone can do that. And in my own case it was supposed to be temporary, my two staff are not happy having to work like that, working just one full day on their own one week, then most days the following. I have no doubt they will continue making their feelings known.

So let them go and replace them with people who are happy to work the shifts you want. Problem solved.

If you replace them with people that have already been vaccinated, they probably won't get Covid, so no issues with Track and Trace.

 

[Interestedobserver]

I have a property which, basically, pays me £800 a month odd in rents with shop thrown in for very little cost. In fact, because the demand for shops is at record lows the opportunity cost of me using the shop is possibly nothing at all, I don't even pay rates on it because I'm covered by small business rates relief. And you say I should sell the shop and rent a factory unit !
What are you talking about ?
Do you actually know anything about business ?

At it again. Putting words into people's mouths. Who said you should rent a factory unit?

Is your shop appointment only then or do you have to staff it for occasional passers by all week?

You've said you get minimal sales from it. Are your staff flat out fulfilling online orders all week in the shop?

Don't be afraid to adapt?

A new normal could be better for you

 

[Justin Smith]

A retail store is an expensive place to send out orders from though isn't it?

"And you say I should sell the shop and rent a factory unit"

At it again. Putting words into people's mouths. Who said you should rent a factory unit?
Is your shop appointment only then or do you have to staff it for occasional passers by all week?
You've said you get minimal sales from it. Are your staff flat out fulfilling online orders all week in the shop?
Don't be afraid to adapt?
A new normal could be better for you

I need premises to store my stock and packaging materials so if I do not have my shop where do I do that from, your implication is I should get premises somewhere else.
I get some sales out of having a shop, every little helps, and, contrary to received wisdom, counter sales are actually less hassle that mail order, you don't have to pack them, possibly have problems with the delivery or potentially lose money on the carriage.
We have to be there anyway in the back packing orders, if a customer walks in we serve them.
Even better I get rents in from my flats upstairs.
It's a perfect business model, reflected in the fact that we are the only specialist aerial seller left, all the others have gone because aerial sales is very much a falling market (overall).

 

[Justin Smith]

1 - So let them go and replace them with people who are happy to work the shifts you want. Problem solved.
2 - If you replace them with people that have already been vaccinated, they probably won't get Covid, so no issues with Track and Trace.

1 - I take it you think people come in off the street fully trained ? But, as it happens, my staff have been with me 11 years and 7 years, we all get on and have a laugh, which is the most important thing. I like going to work because of it.

2 - As it happens my staff have both already been vaccinated, but that (apparently) cuts no ice with the T&T Gestapo. If one of us catches Covid theoretically we all have to self isolate and the business cease trading. That is totally disproportionate but that is the law as I understand it. AFAIK, the vaccines cut one's chances of catching Covid by a significant amount, but no where near as much as they cut one's chances of serious illness from it, it's well over 95% for the latter.

 

[Interestedobserver]

If you have to be there packing all day regardless fair enough. I had a very successful business that very early on I realised having to staff for retail was a liability rather than a benefit due to the sporadic and unpredictable nature of the retail part of the business.

Just don't be afraid to adapt is all I'm saying.

If you weren't having to open for retail hours you would have no problem figuring out how to get your packing done without staff having to work together and you yourself would have more options for when and where you put the hours in.

I'm sure you would be able to become more efficient and save money.

But 95 per cent of what you do sounds like it could be done from even cheaper premises.

You say your shop has no value to anyone else. It will be more valuable than a basement area somehwere or a storage unit etc. You could also look at subcontracting your shipping etc.

 

[jpjj]

AFAIK, the vaccines cut one's chances of catching Covid by a significant amount, but no where near as much as they cut one's chances of serious illness from it, it's well over 95% for the latter.

PHE published this yesterday:
https://assets.publishing.service.g...file/970669/PH__VE_report_20210317_CC_JLB.pdf

Deaths at >14 days post first dose 93%
Vaccine protection against hospitalisation 80%
Vaccine protection against infection 72% at >21 days after first dose

 

[Justin Smith]

PHE published this yesterday:
https://assets.publishing.service.g...file/970669/PH__VE_report_20210317_CC_JLB.pdf

Deaths at >14 days post first dose 93%
Vaccine protection against hospitalisation 80%
Vaccine protection against infection 72% at >21 days after first dose

How do you explain this (before) :
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55280701
Much was made of the fact that it does not appear to be as effective at stopping infection as the Pfizer vaccine - 70% v 95% effective - but what both do at close to 100% levels is stop serious illness. If people are not dying from Covid or being left with long-term problems, the most dire consequences of the pandemic are over.

And this :
https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-c...the-primary-analysis-of-phase-iii-trials.html
The primary analysis of the Phase III clinical trials from the UK, Brazil and South Africa, published as a preprint in The Lancet confirmed COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca is safe and effective at preventing COVID-19, with no severe cases and no hospitalisations, more than 22 days after the first dose. Results demonstrated vaccine efficacy of 76% (CI: 59% to 86%) after a first dose, with protection maintained to the second dose. With an inter-dose interval of 12 weeks or more, vaccine efficacy increased to 82% (CI: 63%, 92%).

Confirmed by this :
The Times Mon (1st March 21, p11) :
Public Health England (PHE) reports that deaths from Covid-19 in the over 75s have dropped by 40% in the last week and admissions to intensive care among the over 85s have dropped to near zero in the last couple of weeks.

 

[Justin Smith]

If you have to be there packing all day regardless fair enough. I had a very successful business that very early on I realised having to staff for retail was a liability rather than a benefit due to the sporadic and unpredictable nature of the retail part of the business.
Just don't be afraid to adapt is all I'm saying.
If you weren't having to open for retail hours you would have no problem figuring out how to get your packing done without staff having to work together and you yourself would have more options for when and where you put the hours in.
I'm sure you would be able to become more efficient and save money.
But 95 per cent of what you do sounds like it could be done from even cheaper premises.
You say your shop has no value to anyone else. It will be more valuable than a basement area somehwere or a storage unit etc. You could also look at subcontracting your shipping etc.

But 95 per cent of what you do sounds like it could be done from even cheaper premises.
What could be cheaper than almost zero ? If I moved my business elsewhere (something which would be very dislocating) I would then need to rent or buy more premises. I would then need to find a tenant for my shop. That would have been difficult before the suppression, now it would be even harder. And even if I found a tenant most shops round here don't last that long is I'd then probably have to find another one. Furthermore, I get very little trouble from any of my flat's tenants (one has been there over 10 years and the other over 6) partly because I am on the premises much of the time.

I'm sure you would be able to become more efficient and save money.
Here you are undoubtedly right. I could get rid of one of my staff. That would require us both to work much harder and on our own for much of the time. I would make more money, but my business would be less resilient and, most importantly, I would not enjoy work as much. I'm only half joking when I say me and my staff work there because if we didn't our wife's would makes us get real jobs.....

 

[jpjj]

How do you explain this (before) :
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55280701
Much was made of the fact that it does not appear to be as effective at stopping infection as the Pfizer vaccine - 70% v 95% effective - but what both do at close to 100% levels is stop serious illness. If people are not dying from Covid or being left with long-term problems, the most dire consequences of the pandemic are over.

And this :
https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-c...the-primary-analysis-of-phase-iii-trials.html
The primary analysis of the Phase III clinical trials from the UK, Brazil and South Africa, published as a preprint in The Lancet confirmed COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca is safe and effective at preventing COVID-19, with no severe cases and no hospitalisations, more than 22 days after the first dose. Results demonstrated vaccine efficacy of 76% (CI: 59% to 86%) after a first dose, with protection maintained to the second dose. With an inter-dose interval of 12 weeks or more, vaccine efficacy increased to 82% (CI: 63%, 92%).

Confirmed by this :
The Times Mon (1st March 21, p11) :
Public Health England (PHE) reports that deaths from Covid-19 in the over 75s have dropped by 40% in the last week and admissions to intensive care among the over 85s have dropped to near zero in the last couple of weeks.

Explain? Different studies often produce different results.

Your first two paragraphs appear to be based on findings from clinical trials with carefully controlled participation. Real world results from rollout to wider populations often produce results that are not quite the same. (Particularly when most of the data from the rollout currently relates to protection after one dose rather than two in the trials).

Your last paragraph - how had deaths and admissions dropped for other age groups over the same time period? Without knowing this it is hard to see what effects vaccination is causing, and whether other factors might be involved.

 

[Interestedobserver]

How do you explain this (before) :
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55280701
Much was made of the fact that it does not appear to be as effective at stopping infection as the Pfizer vaccine - 70% v 95% effective - but what both do at close to 100% levels is stop serious illness. If people are not dying from Covid or being left with long-term problems, the most dire consequences of the pandemic are over.

And this :
https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-c...the-primary-analysis-of-phase-iii-trials.html
The primary analysis of the Phase III clinical trials from the UK, Brazil and South Africa, published as a preprint in The Lancet confirmed COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca is safe and effective at preventing COVID-19, with no severe cases and no hospitalisations, more than 22 days after the first dose. Results demonstrated vaccine efficacy of 76% (CI: 59% to 86%) after a first dose, with protection maintained to the second dose. With an inter-dose interval of 12 weeks or more, vaccine efficacy increased to 82% (CI: 63%, 92%).

Confirmed by this :
The Times Mon (1st March 21, p11) :
Public Health England (PHE) reports that deaths from Covid-19 in the over 75s have dropped by 40% in the last week and admissions to intensive care among the over 85s have dropped to near zero in the last couple of weeks.

So all good news and all is going to plan?

You must be happy today?

 

[Justin Smith]

Explain? Different studies often produce different results.

Your first two paragraphs appear to be based on findings from clinical trials with carefully controlled participation. Real world results from rollout to wider populations often produce results that are not quite the same. (Particularly when most of the data from the rollout currently relates to protection after one dose rather than two in the trials).

Your last paragraph - how had deaths and admissions dropped for other age groups over the same time period? Without knowing this it is hard to see what effects vaccination is causing, and whether other factors might be involved.

The fact over 85s, the very first group to be vaccinated, were also the first to have zero hospital admissions sounds rather too much of a co-incidence to be anything else. Particularly as that is exactly what you would expect to happen anyway.

 

[Justin Smith]

So all good news and all is going to plan?
You must be happy today?

I am in two minds.
On the one hand it is obviously very encouraging that everything is going in the right direction and millions of people can now stop worrying about Covid and get on with their lives. Infections may start rising a bit when restrictions are got rid of but that really won't anything much to worry about, we are way past the point where more infections means more hospitalisations and more deaths

But on the other hand those people who no longer have to worry about Covid cannot actually get on with their lives at the moment can they ?
All, and I really do mean all, of the data indicates that we should be in some equivalent low tier now and even that for a relatively short time.

Taking both together, rather counter intuitively, the better the news gets the angrier I get, because all this suppression is getting more and more pointless, and worrying for the long term.

 

[Interestedobserver]

Honestly no point worrying at this stage

We had to lockdown, we are doing well and it's not too long to wait now

As has been discussed elsewhere will be a slow burn even when we are allowed to do everything as well

Just keep your fingers crossed we don't get any setbacks now. The fact we are doing well will help us even if we do get setbacks

 

[MikeJ]

As it happens my staff have both already been vaccinated, but that (apparently) cuts no ice with the T&T Gestapo

Please stop comparing one group of people that are asking you to stay at home for 10 days to prevent an infection spreading with a group that tortured people to death because they happened to be born in a racial group. It's pretty tasteless.

 

[jpjj]

The fact over 85s, the very first group to be vaccinated, were also the first to have zero hospital admissions sounds rather too much of a co-incidence to be anything else. Particularly as that is exactly what you would expect to happen anyway.

Not zero hospitalisations for 85+ group according to NHS hospital data
27-Feb-21 28-Feb-21 01-Mar-21 02-Mar-21 03-Mar-21
40 30 28 32 29

Also, you ducking the question presumably means that admissions also dropped dramatically in other age groups, or that you won't go and look because you are afraid of what you might find out.

 

[NickGrogan]

1 - I take it you think people come in off the street fully trained ? But, as it happens, my staff have been with me 11 years and 7 years, we all get on and have a laugh, which is the most important thing. I like going to work because of it.

2 - As it happens my staff have both already been vaccinated, but that (apparently) cuts no ice with the T&T Gestapo. If one of us catches Covid theoretically we all have to self isolate and the business cease trading. That is totally disproportionate but that is the law as I understand it. AFAIK, the vaccines cut one's chances of catching Covid by a significant amount, but no where near as much as they cut one's chances of serious illness from it, it's well over 95% for the latter.

According to your posts, they pack ariels for shipping around the UK. I can't see that being a very long learning curve.

If they think you're great and love the job as much as you say, they're not going to quit over a few more months of awkward hours, especially in the current job market.

Either the problem is solved or doesn't exist.

 

[Interestedobserver]

According to your posts, they pack ariels for shipping around the UK. I can't see that being a very long learning curve.

You do, however, have to take account of the fact it's a lot harder to do when you are wearing a mask and gloves which no doubt Justin will be ensuring they are doing to keep his customers as safe as poss during the pandemic

And they won't be able to understand half the stuff Justin is asking them to do because his own mask will be muffling his voice

It's bound to be a lot harder and more stressful

 

[Justin Smith]

Not zero hospitalisations for 85+ group according to NHS hospital data
27-Feb-21 28-Feb-21 01-Mar-21 02-Mar-21 03-Mar-21
40 30 28 32 29

Also, you ducking the question presumably means that admissions also dropped dramatically in other age groups, or that you won't go and look because you are afraid of what you might find out.

I'm not afraid of anything, I trust the The Times figures, and I'm even more sure this pandemic is fizzling out. Or, to be more accurate, it would be fizzling out in a rational world which acknowledged that even ten thousand deaths a year with Covid were not worth changing society for when half a million (50 times as many) die of other causes.

BTW, could you post the link to those stats ?

 

[Justin Smith]

According to your posts, they pack ariels for shipping around the UK. I can't see that being a very long learning curve.

If they think you're great and love the job as much as you say, they're not going to quit over a few more months of awkward hours, especially in the current job market.

Either the problem is solved or doesn't exist.

Who says they're going to quit ?
What I said is they're unhappy about the staffing regime at the moment.
I want my staff to be happy, because that makes for a better working environment for everyone including myself.
Have you not noticed that with your own staff ?

PS they do not "just pack aerials", they advise customers etc and run the shop when I am not there.

 

[jpjj]

I trust the The Times figures, and I'm even more sure this pandemic is fizzling out.

So you're going to rely some figures quoted in an opinion piece some weeks ago, that presumably didn't reference the source of the data, and ignore any new information that comes along that says something different.

I think that tells us all we need to know about the reliability of your thought process and the conclusions coming from it.

 

[MikeJ]

I'm not afraid of anything, I trust the The Times figures, and I'm even more sure this pandemic is fizzling out. Or, to be more accurate, it would be fizzling out in a rational world which acknowledged that even ten thousand deaths a year with Covid were not worth changing society for when half a million (50 times as many) die of other causes.

BTW, could you post the link to those stats ?

Here's a link to early March...

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statisti...s/2/2021/03/Covid-Publication-11-03-2021.xlsx

29 people on 3rd March aged over 85. Not zero.

But I'm sure The Times' opinion is more accurate.

 

[NickGrogan]

However, my staff are getting a bit p1ssed off with it now and are asking me when they can go back to working a more consistent number of hours each week.

From your post, they don't sound very happy. The next step from p'd off tends to be quitting.

Perhaps this is because you've been telling then it will all be over soon when it won't.

 

[Interestedobserver]

From your post, they don't sound very happy. The next step from p'd off tends to be quitting.

Perhaps this is because you've been telling then it will all be over soon when it won't.

I can just imagine some of those conversations

I bet they nod their heads a lot and keep quiet. That's my approach when someone starts ranting on about Covid in person

The discussions arent worth getting into in person

Would go on forever

Just like on here!!

Lol

 

[Interestedobserver]

From your post, they don't sound very happy. The next step from p'd off tends to be quitting.

Perhaps this is because you've been telling then it will all be over soon when it won't.

What we need is some graphs to prove how happy they are?

 

[Justin Smith]

So you're going to rely some figures quoted in an opinion piece some weeks ago, that presumably didn't reference the source of the data, and ignore any new information that comes along that says something different.

I think that tells us all we need to know about the reliability of your thought process and the conclusions coming from it.

It wasn't an opinion piece, why do you and others keep saying that, it was an "Analysis" piece.
More to the point, have you got that link to those figures you quoted ?

I have some figures for you though, :
Hospitalisations : down by 83% since peak.
Deaths (weekly average to 11 Mar, they'll be much lower now) : down by 91.7%, except for London (the epicentre of the Kent strain), their death rate is down by 97.2%
Vaccinations : 26.3Million
But what does that actually mean ? Well a picture really is worth a thousand words :

But we are still in full on suppression, post rational, utter madness.

 

[Justin Smith]

Here's a link to early March...
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statisti...s/2/2021/03/Covid-Publication-11-03-2021.xlsx
29 people on 3rd March aged over 85. Not zero.
But I'm sure The Times' opinion is more accurate.

I don't have Office on my home PC, so cannot read that.

 

[Justin Smith]

I can just imagine some of those conversations
I bet they nod their heads a lot and keep quiet. That's my approach when someone starts ranting on about Covid in person
The discussions arent worth getting into in person
Would go on forever
Just like on here!!
Lol

One is of the same opinion as me that it has all been a big overreaction, his wife who works for the NHS by the way, agrees with him.
The other's opinion is more interesting, he was in favour of much of this suppression but now thinks it's time to get back top normal.

 

[Justin Smith]

It wasn't an opinion piece, why do you and others keep saying that, it was an "Analysis" piece.
More to the point, have you got that link to those figures you quoted ?

Error

 

[jpjj]

Error

Seems likely.