The Pandemic is Over, Yay!!

[simon field]

I feel very happy to report that with the new cold doing the rounds, the virus has more or less done one!

Back to normal soon, and people have short memories thankfully ?

 

[cjd]

Cheers, pity you didn't say that back in December 2020, it would have saved a lot of grief.

 

[japancool]

The pandemic will be over at approximately the same time as when England win a Test series.

 

[cjd]

The pandemic will be over at approximately the same time as when England win a Test series.

Optimist

 

[gpietersz]

he pandemic will be over at approximately the same time as when England win a Test series.

Not even the black death took that long

More seriously, this looks encouraging: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=region&areaName=London

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhsRegion&areaName=London

 

[kulture]

Not even the black death took that long

More seriously, this looks encouraging: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=region&areaName=London

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhsRegion&areaName=London

But how much of the dip is down to shortage of tests.

 

[gpietersz]

But how much of the dip is down to shortage of tests.

Hard to say with cases, but the number of tests bing done.

A shortage of tests would also not cause hospital admissions to fall. If that holds up and is not a blip (and 10 days after people mixing at Christmas a blip up rather than down would be expected, surely?) then it looks pretty good. Especially so as London should be worse than the rest of the country.

 

[IanSuth]

Having been clobbered hard by Delta when it first arrived (myself and wife caught it via younger teenage daughter and were laid up for 2 to 3 weeks and daughters head of year died of it over xmas last year) and then had elder daughter test positive Xmas eve this year and son on boxing day followed by a bunch of friends and family I can say the following anecdotally

Omicron appears to hit faster and become infectious faster (we tested with LFT whilst driving to my brothers on Dec 23rd and were all negative at 6.30pm, we drove home c11pm, by 11am following morning daughter tested positive on lft and by brother came down with it 2 days later on xmas day despite not going out in the interim) but in the young is a cough and a sniffle (both children dropped to a faint line on day 5 and were clear lft day 6 & 7) whilst adults had more usual flu like fever and fatigue and so far both brother and another family friend are still showing positive lft's despite hitting 10 days plus.

All this as elder daughter had had her booster on Sunday 19th so put sniffles on 21st/22nd down as reaction whilst it seems it was might have been early symptoms

But not heard of anyone over about 50 with it yet, i guess the acid test is how triple jabbed elderly/infirm people react when they get it, as currently it only now seems to be moving from young 20 somethings to the older pop

 

[Gordon - Commercial Finance]

The pandemic is probably coming to and end with the Omicron, but we now move to an endemic instead which is less problematic, but in this case could be just another nightmare because of the way the media and the government continue to play the game.

 

[Ozzy]

I feel very happy to report that with the new cold doing the rounds

I had one hell of a cold over the Christmas week which my son now has. Well, I say he has it but college also started today and I don't think he'd completed his homework assignment...coincidence maybe.

 

[MBE2017]

Omicron is displacing the more serious Delta version, and seems to hit the youngsters more, but with much milder effects and fewer hospitalisation. If covid had not been rammed down everyone’s throats for the last year, people would refer to it as just a winter cold.

Covid is part of the cold and flu family, which is why no vaccination will eradicate it, otherwise colds and flu would have disappeared many years ago by now. Time to start living rather than hiding in fear.

 

[Newchodge]

The pandemic is probably coming to and end with the Omicron, but we now move to an endemic instead which is less problematic, but in this case could be just another nightmare because of the way the media and the government continue to play the game.

Pandemic = world wide. We may be seeing reduced symptoms but I am unconvinced that is replicated throughout the world.

 

[Paul Norman]

Pandemic = world wide. We may be seeing reduced symptoms but I am unconvinced that is replicated throughout the world.

Yes. It would be an error to conclude that because there is less in my village in Derwentside that it is over.

Nonetheless, the statistics seem, as far as we actually get to see them, to be heading in a hopeful direction. That leaves those nations where this is not so much the case, for various reasons, and opens up the discussion as to how we might best help them.

I suspect sending money is not the answer, as that typically does not end up on the ground. But there are more trust worth agencies through which help could be deployed.

 

[Gordon - Commercial Finance]

Pandemic = world wide. We may be seeing reduced symptoms but I am unconvinced that is replicated throughout the world.

Not yet, but Omicron is the bringer of that end.

Historically, pandemics shift to endemic after roughly 2 years, and this happens when the virus mutates to a far more virulent, but far less harmful variant. This will allow it to circulate rapidly and create the “herd immunity” effect that was talked about years ago, but couldn’t be implemented due to high death toll and NHS being overwhelmed.

 

[IanSuth]

Of course there is nothing to stop a new variant which is as infectious as Omnicom but as severe as Delta developing, we just need to hope we have enough built up immunity if that arrives. In many ways it would be better that comes sooner than later (before immunity waivers) if it is going to happen

There is no law of virology that says all virii have to become less virulent - obviously if they become too deadly they kill before they spread but i suspect we will have outbreaks of deadly covid for ever from now, treatment will improve and it will be those without access to healthcare or with comorbidities who suffer

 

[gpietersz]

Well, I say he has it but college also started today and I don't think he'd completed his homework assignment...coincidence maybe.

My daughter tells me she she is doing her assignment on her laptop. The daily holiday (in Sri Lanka) photos of her drinking cocktails by swimming pools make me wonder.

I suspect sending money is not the answer, as that typically does not end up on the ground. But there are more trust worth agencies through which help could be deployed.

Which trustworthy agencies? There is a lot of waste, jobs for the boys (and girls) etc. in the system.

Covid is part of the cold and flu family, which is why no vaccination will eradicate it, otherwise colds and flu would have disappeared many years ago by now.

Covid is not part of the flu family. The good news is that its familly does not mutate as fast as the flu family does.

There is no such thing as a cold and flu family, or even a cold family. The common cold is a catch all term for about two hundred viruses from several families that cause similar symptoms.

There are several, influenza viruses, they mutate fast, and one group of them evolves faster than the other, that is why the best we can do against them is annual vaciinations for the currently spreading variant.

Cold viruses have not disappeared because there are just so many of them. If a community has herd immunity against one, a different one will spread. Two hundred different viruses produce a lot of new variants. Its also why we do not have a vacine against it. There are lots of vaccines against a single virus, a lot of combined vaccinations against multiple viruses, but producing one that immunises against hundreds of viruses is an unsolved problem.

I also think people are too pessimistic about a really effective vaccine being developed. We have lots of highly effective vaccines, long lasting, against viral diseases (measlies, rubella, mumps, polio, hepatatis, HPV and lots of thers).

Not yet, but Omicron is the bringer of that end.

I think so, but, even though it causes milder diseases, it might still be pretty bad in unvaccinated populations.

 

[JEREMY HAWKE]

Some of these people have turned this cold into their main hobby
Very sad !

 

[Ozzy]

That leaves those nations where this is not so much the case, for various reasons, and opens up the discussion as to how we might best help them.

I'm up for bouncing ideas around on how we could help nations who find themselves in such an issue. You mention sending money wouldn't be the answer, which broadly I share that same view. But what if, throwing something out there, that UKBF setup a GoFundMe that was used to found perhaps tests or vaccines for such a purpose?
Is it possible for a small group of business owners to make a difference to help like this... ?

 

[JEREMY HAWKE]

I'm up for bouncing ideas around on how we could help nations who find themselves in such an issue. You mention sending money wouldn't be the answer, which broadly I share that same view. But what if, throwing something out there, that UKBF setup a GoFundMe that was used to found perhaps tests or vaccines for such a purpose?
Is it possible for a small group of business owners to make a difference to help like this... ?

Influence over people and government would be the best advantage that business owners could have

 

[Paul Norman]

I'm up for bouncing ideas around on how we could help nations who find themselves in such an issue. You mention sending money wouldn't be the answer, which broadly I share that same view. But what if, throwing something out there, that UKBF setup a GoFundMe that was used to found perhaps tests or vaccines for such a purpose?
Is it possible for a small group of business owners to make a difference to help like this... ?

I thinking bouncing ideas around is a useful thing to do. Few of any of our first thoughts will turn out to be the answer. And there won't be a perfect answer. I can't rock up in someone else's country and tell them what to do, even if I knew.

But bouncing ideas around has a good track record, provided the conversation is marshalled to avoid the nutters, and the one sentence over simplifications, from being dominant.

My view is that this is a decent place to start. Talking. Discussing. Seeking to understand why some places have not cracked this, and what would actually make a difference.

Eventually, raising some cash inevitably becomes necessary to then do stuff.

There are, of course, experts in this field. To them, we can turn to gain information on some of the challenges that exist.

Maybe just accepting that as a smallish group of people we can just make a smallish difference in a smallish area is a sensible thought. Which is better than make no difference anywhere.

 

[Ozzy]

Influence over people and government would be the best advantage that business owners could have

Coming from the angle of supporting less advantaged nations and this being global, what effects them effects us all; what would the message to ministers be?

 

[gpietersz]

Of course there is nothing to stop a new variant which is as infectious as Omnicom but as severe as Delta developing, we just need to hope we have enough built up immunity if that arrives.

That is true, but:

There is no law of virology that says all virii have to become less virulent - obviously if they become too deadly they kill before they spread but i suspect we will have outbreaks of deadly covid for ever from now,

Viruses transmitted the way covid is do evolve to be less virulent:

Evolution from a virus’s view - Understanding Evolution

evolution.berkeley.edu

That is why no past outbreaks of similar viruses have remained deadly.

 

[gpietersz]

Maybe just accepting that as a smallish group of people we can just make a smallish difference in a smallish area is a sensible thought. Which is better than make no difference anywhere.

Looking at it from having lived in a country that is an aid recpient, and particularly living there during the Asian Tsunnami, I am quite sceptical about who can be trusted. If I give money my first choice would be a small grass roots charity that I know personally or are vouched for by someone I know. My second choice are some religious charities that do not seem to employs lots of expats at fancy salaries and can get help from people who know the communities (Caritas and its Anglican equivalent both did a fair bit in an area I lvied in).

Governments are corrupt, big global aid organisations are wasteful, small organisations in another country are hard to find, not many are equipped to do things like vaccination rollouts, its hard to verify you can trust them, and as they will not have a UK presence they do not qualify for gift aid.

 

[japancool]

Coming from the angle of supporting less advantaged nations and this being global, what effects them effects us all; what would the message to ministers be?

One of the main issues in less developed countries is vaccine hesitancy, rather than a shortage of vaccines. I'm not sure how you overcome that - people in those countries have an understandable mistrust of what their own governments tell them.

 

[Lucan Unlordly]

But not heard of anyone over about 50 with it yet

Last week six friends (3 couples) drove for 7 hours in 2 cars for a short break.
24 hours after arriving one of them, who was in the car of 4, tested positive.
A day later, the passenger in the car of 2 tested positive, followed 5 days later by another of the group of 4.

Some stats;

All are over 50, at least one is over 60.

All are double vaccinated and boosted.

All self isolated accordingly.

Only one of each couple tested positive, despite them having ate, drunk, slept together in the days preceding the positive tests.

In other words there is no obvious logic that explains who gets this and how?

 

[The Byre]

Just wake me up when all this nonsense is over and everyone has calmed down. Then and only then shall I emerge from hibernation.

 

[Ozzy]

my first choice would be a small grass roots charity that I know personally or are vouched for by someone I know.

I'd second this. Having worked myself with a few different types of charities, I am disheartened by the larger ones that can often become little more than a money churning machine. Grass roots, local level, smaller organisations I've found can often make a much greater impact on the ground.
Still seems to boil down to sending money so far, which isn't necessarily the wrong or bad thing. Just seems to be knowing where to send it and for what purpose.

 

[japancool]

In other words there is no obvious logic that explains who gets this and how?

It's a medical condition, not a physical equation.

 

[gpietersz]

One of the main issues in less developed countries is vaccine hesitancy, rather than a shortage of vaccines. I'm not sure how you overcome that - people in those countries have an understandable mistrust of what their own governments tell them.

There are some developed countries have high vaccine hestitancy (US) or have had it (France, Japan) and many developing countries have low vaccine hesitance:

COVID vaccines have higher approval in less-affluent countries

Surveys show that people in ten low- and middle-income nations are generally more eager to receive the COVID-19 jab than people in two wealthier nations where vaccine is plentiful.

www.nature.com

 

[Lucan Unlordly]

It's a medical condition, not a physical equation.

If 4 people in an enclosed car for 7 hours with one of them testing positive a few hours later isn't considered to be a physical equation of note when it comes to the spread of the medical condition, then what is?

 

[Deleted member 59730]

One of the main issues in less developed countries is vaccine hesitancy, rather than a shortage of vaccines. I'm not sure how you overcome that - people in those countries have an understandable mistrust of what their own governments tell them.

Do you have any evidence of that? I have an old letter from my mother who was working as a nurse on a mine close to Lake Victoria when there was an outbreak of Cholera. She managed and administered 3,000 2 stage doses of vaccine to the local very rural Masai tribes. All the recipients had to come back 10 days later for the second dose. Many of them walked 10 miles or more for both jabs. The number who did not return for the second jab was 3 out of 3,000.

I think you would have to go a long way to find a developed country with such a good response.

 

[cjd]

If 4 people in an enclosed car for 7 hours with one of them testing positive a few hours later isn't considered to be a physical equation of note when it comes to the spread of the medical condition, then what is?

What point are you trying to make?

We know that an individual's reaction to exposure to the virus varies from nothing through to infected but asymptomatic to mildly ill all the way through to hospitalised and dead.

How each individual responds depends on a complex series of things such as sex, age, weight, fitness, previous infection, number and date of vaccinations etc etc etc. All you're seeing is that system at work.

 

[japancool]

If 4 people in an enclosed car for 7 hours with one of them testing positive a few hours later isn't considered to be a physical equation of note when it comes to the spread of the medical condition, then what is?

Dealing with biology is not like dealing with a car.

 

[IanSuth]

Last week six friends (3 couples) drove for 7 hours in 2 cars for a short break.
24 hours after arriving one of them, who was in the car of 4, tested positive.
A day later, the passenger in the car of 2 tested positive, followed 5 days later by another of the group of 4.

Some stats;

All are over 50, at least one is over 60.

All are double vaccinated and boosted.

All self isolated accordingly.

Only one of each couple tested positive, despite them having ate, drunk, slept together in the days preceding the positive tests.

In other words there is no obvious logic that explains who gets this and how?

I wasnt meaning people over 50 wouldnt get it for some random reason, more that currently few were, and i wondered if they would get it as mildly as the young adults who are/were the current biggest group of infected

 

[DontAsk]

Do you have any evidence of that? I have an old letter from my mother who was working as a nurse on a mine close to Lake Victoria when there was an outbreak of Cholera. She managed and administered 3,000 2 stage doses of vaccine to the local very rural Masai tribes. All the recipients had to come back 10 days later for the second dose. Many of them walked 10 miles or more for both jabs. The number who did not return for the second jab was 3 out of 3,000.

I think you would have to go a long way to find a developed country with such a good response.

And is it the same in all the other less developed countries, or do you just have the single anecdote?

Don't worry, it's human nature to think like that

 

[Lucan Unlordly]

Dealing with biology is not like dealing with a car.

The car just happens to be the space of confinement, just as a house, office, pub or shop would be.

 

[Lucan Unlordly]

What point are you trying to make?

We know that an individual's reaction to exposure to the virus varies from nothing through to infected but asymptomatic to mildly ill all the way through to hospitalised and dead.

How each individual responds depends on a complex series of things such as sex, age, weight, fitness, previous infection, number and date of vaccinations etc etc etc. All you're seeing is that system at work.

It would be quite easy to add to your list, masks, humidity, length of exposure, air flow, distance, ethnicity etc.,
The point - although I'm not standing on a soapbox here - is that we are still grabbing at straws to try and make sense of a situation that is still as of yet undetermined and illogical.

 

[cjd]

It would be quite easy to add to your list, masks, humidity, length of exposure, air flow, distance, ethnicity etc.,

It's a long list.

The point - although I'm not standing on a soapbox here - is that we are still grabbing at straws to try and make sense of a situation that is still as of yet undetermined and illogical.

You can't understand it by looking at a few individuals - it's a population scale, statistical problem. The science is clear enough - so clear that we now have vaccines and anti-virals. What's illogical or indeterminate about it? - apart from an inability to predict precisely who and when how much an individual might react to exposure to the virus?

 

[Deleted member 59730]

And is it the same in all the other less developed countries, or do you just have the single anecdote?

Don't worry, it's human nature to think like that

What is remarkable by studying the Reuters Covid website for a while is how much better some undeveloped countries have been at coping with the virus than places like the UK and USA. It is a mistake to think that people in those countries are less intelligent than us. On average I think many are more intelligent than Piers Corbin and his followers.

 

[IanSuth]

. On average I think many are more intelligent than Piers Corbin and his followers.

You are not setting a very high bar there