The mini-budget

simon field

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I was panicking as I thought my current 5 year fixed deal ended next year...but its not until November 2024. Hopefully things will have settled back down by then but cant imagine any low fixed rates such as we have now.
I’ve just had an offer accepted on a bungalow (last week).

Seems a really great time to buy! ?

I’ve scheduled a meeting with my mortgage advisor tomorrow afternoon, I’m envisaging that things have changed somewhat in the last week, so I’m preparing to pull out, which saddens me a bit.

Bah!
 
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Newchodge

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    I am not great when it comes to politics and economics at this level I must admit. I have voted Tory in recent years although I have referred to myself as a "reluctant tory". I agree with some of the principles and actions, I also think Labour come up with some valid points but I have also encountered far too many with an extreme left wing opinion who don't see why anyone should be rewarded for working hard or taking a risk.

    But anyway....talk about shooting yourselves in the foot?!? They've delivered the headlines on a plate to the left media and Labour. "Tories cut income tax for the rich". What more do they need. Regardless of whether the Tories have the most sound logic in the world behind the decision (and I really dont think they do), nobody is going to care about that. They are going to take the headline that even in the most difficult times that anyone can remember, Tories have given more tax breaks to the rich. What an absolute own goal. It's an unbelievable naivety towards the general thoughts of the nation in my honest opinion.

    Another thought I had - and forgive me if this sounds overly basic. Businesses have been preparing themselves for the 25% corporation tax. Scrapping that now is probably a welcome boost but businesses weren't expecting it. If they really want to get money quickly back into the economy and being spent.... could it not have been an idea to remove that from businesses on the proviso that the money instead - or perhaps even part of it - goes in the form of a bonus to all employees (pro-rata, or earning up to a certain amount, or something). So the business still pays the extra 6% that they were expecting to, but it goes directly into employees pockets, skips the government, and ergo straight back into the economy as it gets spent. Could that not have been a really quick creative win which would have ultimately meant the same for the government (only receiving 19% instead of 25%). Or have I over-simplified things far, far too much? :)
    I think you are mistaking this government's intentions!
     
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    thetiger2015

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    Another thought I had - and forgive me if this sounds overly basic. Businesses have been preparing themselves for the 25% corporation tax. Scrapping that now is probably a welcome boost but businesses weren't expecting it. If they really want to get money quickly back into the economy and being spent.... could it not have been an idea to remove that from businesses on the proviso that the money instead - or perhaps even part of it - goes in the form of a bonus to all employees (pro-rata, or earning up to a certain amount, or something). So the business still pays the extra 6% that they were expecting to, but it goes directly into employees pockets, skips the government, and ergo straight back into the economy as it gets spent. Could that not have been a really quick creative win which would have ultimately meant the same for the government (only receiving 19% instead of 25%). Or have I over-simplified things far, far too much? :)
    The government are already doing that, by way of a lump sum payment for energy bills in to selected accounts. Energy companies are using that as credit against bills, so the customer doesn't actually get to spend it anywhere but with the energy companies. Two sides to that coin, because you're using taxpayer money to bail out energy companies but also maintaining the rocketing energy price by bailing them out.

    Remember, the government don't have any money. They have to use tax payers future money to pay for things now. The problem is, you can only take so much from the future before you actually run out and create the unsustainable levels of borrowing we currently have

    In the mini budget, they should have committed to reducing national debt and investing in things that increase income/exports/infrastructure. They could have used a little bit of tax payer money to reduce and level out energy spikes but with a commitment that energy companies will contribute higher taxes toward sustainable energy supplies over the next 10 years. Non of that is really happening. Instead, they've given 100 billion away without any rules attached, then they're borrowing more money from the future generations to cover costs today, while making no provision for generating income from that borrowing. It's just more debt.
     
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    IanSuth

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    In itself, that's not necessarily a bad thing, but if mortgage rates are going to hit 7-10%, homeowners are going to see a huge hit. Don't rule out further "support" for the housing market. 1990s all over again.
    Big difference is that in 90's housing benefit would pay your mortgage for a long while - now they will just cover the interest for a while (and i have no idea what UC covers)

    Not necessarily a bad thing - I remember one guy telling me he could not accept a job at under 30k as soon as he started his benefit would stop and that is what he needed to cover the mortgage - he was also in neg equity so couldnt move

    But if the 90's happened with todays benefit regime you would see massive repossessions
     
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    It didn't fuel inflation in 2008, although I admit things were a little different then.
    It depends on what it is that the BoE does with the bonds and what the conditions on those bonds are and what sort of bonds we are talking about - 2yr, 10yr, 30yr? At min rate or linked to RPI? At the moment we just do not know what the F this government or the BoE are really up to!

    A 1% change in interest rates for a mortgage --> a 7% (very roughly!) change in house prices over time.
    But of course my economics degree taught conventional economic theory which this bunch of mad muppets think is too conservative in it's view and wrong - so I may be also
    That is the problem - you can't have some mad muppets playing by some set of rules that nobody else knows, understands, uses, or even thinks are relevant. And at the same time, the entire financial sector across Planet Earth is operating within a money market, the mechanics of which this Mad Muppet Brigade just does not understand.

    Ray Dalio really nailed it this morning on the Today Programme on R4. Growth comes from productivity and not from The Magic Money Tree.
     
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    BusterBloodvessel

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    The government are already doing that, by way of a lump sum payment for energy bills in to selected accounts. Energy companies are using that as credit against bills, so the customer doesn't actually get to spend it anywhere but with the energy companies. Two sides to that coin, because you're using taxpayer money to bail out energy companies but also maintaining the rocketing energy price by bailing them out.

    Remember, the government don't have any money. They have to use tax payers future money to pay for things now. The problem is, you can only take so much from the future before you actually run out and create the unsustainable levels of borrowing we currently have

    In the mini budget, they should have committed to reducing national debt and investing in things that increase income/exports/infrastructure. They could have used a little bit of tax payer money to reduce and level out energy spikes but with a commitment that energy companies will contribute higher taxes toward sustainable energy supplies over the next 10 years. Non of that is really happening. Instead, they've given 100 billion away without any rules attached, then they're borrowing more money from the future generations to cover costs today, while making no provision for generating income from that borrowing. It's just more debt.

    I'll be honest the energy thing is baffling me too. When the idea of a windfall tax was mooted I was initially against it - kind of with the thought "where do you draw the line"? If a business has done well why is it suddenly being penalised. But handing over billions of taxpayers' money just to ensure a business can continue making an obscene amount of profit....I'm lost at that point.
     
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    IanSuth

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    That is the problem - you can't have some mad muppets playing by some set of rules that nobody else knows, understands, uses, or even thinks are relevant. And at the same time, the entire financial sector across Planet Earth is operating within a money market, the mechanics of which this Mad Muppet Brigade just does not understand.

    Ray Dalio really nailed it this morning on the Today Programme on R4. Growth comes from productivity and not from The Magic Money Tree.
    My brother sent me a clip from the FT saying

    The BoE said its action would be strictly "time-limited" and came after market participants said there was a "proper shit show" happening in government bond markets

    I don't think I have ever seen language (or even a tone) like that from the FT
     
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    IanSuth

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    You know that Einstein quote about the definition of insanity well....

    The government's tax-cutting policies are the "right plans" and "make our economy competitive", Treasury minister Andrew Griffith says.

    Despite the markets reacting badly to the chancellor's tax-cutting mini-budget, Griffith says the plans will create jobs and keep people in work.

    Last Friday's announcement of £45bn of tax cuts, funded by borrowing as part of a plan to boost economic growth, sparked a fall in the pound and caused borrowing costs to surge.

    Pushed again on whether there would be a change of plan, Griffith says: "Get on and deliver that plan - that's what I, the chancellor and my colleagues in government are focused on."

    "That is what's going to allow consumers to benefit," he says.

    ?‍♂️
     
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    UKSBD

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    I listened to a discussion over this on the radio this morning while driving. The consensus seemed to be that 'mortgage agreed' would be honoured, but 'agreed in principle' didn't have to be.

    I heard that just after Naga was interviewing a health and safety guy at the CWU union as though he was an official spokesperson for them, it was quite comical, he sounded like a guy just dragged in from the street to do an interview (and probably was)
     
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    gpietersz

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    I was taught in economics class that advanced economies eventually evolve to become service-based, as manufacturing moves to cheaper countries, the tertiary economies.

    I look at Germany and Japan, and... they are not primarily service economies. Perhaps it's time to join the Axis

    They are primarily service economies, although their service sector is a slightly smaller proportion of the economy than the UK. Service sectors as percentages of GDP :

    US: 80%
    UK: 79%
    Germany: 69%
    Japan: 69%

    Source: https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook
     
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    WaveJumper

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    It depends on what it is that the BoE does with the bonds and what the conditions on those bonds are and what sort of bonds we are talking about - 2yr, 10yr, 30yr? At min rate or linked to RPI? At the moment we just do not know what the F this government or the BoE are really up to!

    A 1% change in interest rates for a mortgage --> a 7% (very roughly!) change in house prices over time.

    That is the problem - you can't have some mad muppets playing by some set of rules that nobody else knows, understands, uses, or even thinks are relevant. And at the same time, the entire financial sector across Planet Earth is operating within a money market, the mechanics of which this Mad Muppet Brigade just does not understand.

    Ray Dalio really nailed it this morning on the Today Programme on R4. Growth comes from productivity and not from The Magic Money Tree.
    Markets are apparently now factoring in an increase by BOE in November of 1.25%
     
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    quasiKwasi

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    the problem with chancellor is he is clueless or/and corrupted.

    They keep him finding jobs just because he b...ged (and I don't mean begged) Amber Rudd so they have a mercy on him by keeping finding him jobs as he is totally useless

    He gets higher and higher positions and nation suffers.

    There would be half of the story if he was only clueless/he normally is.

    There could be a bigger problem. Theres a widespread theory he listens to instructions of his ex mates/he worked for and they make billions on shorting pound as he definitely has professional past and connections with hedge funds

    Cluelessness is a lesser problem in Kwasi case
     
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    thetiger2015

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    I’ve seen some footage of him in parliament when they were having the 2 minute silence for Liz, and he looked completely off his face!

    What happened about the cocaine they found in the loos, anyone know? Or was it swept under the carpet?
    Swept under the carpet. Police can't get access to government buildings easily, they need permission to enter parliament etc. So, lack of evidence, lack of ability to get any evidence, no case to answer I guess?
     
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    gpietersz

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    Hmmm, so we don’t make & sell much stuff at all then. Sounds like a bad position to be in.

    The UK's industrial output is the highest its ever been: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-8353/ - but services have grown faster. This is typical of developed economies.

    Developed economies make and do stuff more efficiently - that is a requirement of more money per (employed) person. We then need services. What service sector would you want to do with less of? A poor country will have a far smaller financial sector - because most people do no have enough money to need to keep it in a bank, and they cannot afford insurance, and are not good bets for mortgages or credit cards or investments either. It will have far fewer leisure services: travel. hotels, restaurants (unless it attracts a lot of tourism). There will be fewer car mechanics because only a minority can afford cars. Fewer people employed in retail and freight transport because people buy less stuff.
     
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    WaveJumper

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    I’ve seen some footage of him in parliament when they were having the 2 minute silence for Liz, and he looked completely off his face!

    What happened about the cocaine they found in the loos, anyone know? Or was it swept under the carpet?
    I’ve seen some footage of him in parliament when they were having the 2 minute silence for Liz, and he looked completely off his face!

    What happened about the cocaine they found in the loos, anyone know? Or was it swept under the carpet?
    Think they may possibly have been on an acid trip, be interesting when they come back down and find they crashed the UK
     
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    The UK's industrial output is the highest its ever been: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-8353/ - but services have grown faster. This is typical of developed economies.
    That government chart is totally bogus. In 1990, manufacturing was 16.7% of GDP, By 2007 it had fallen to 10.2% and that was the very last time it went above 10% - last year it was at 8.8%.

    You can only get a chart like that showing growth after adjusting for inflation if you use a totally false adjustment algorithm.

    In real terms, manufacturing was $300bn in 2006 - the highest ever since 1990. Here is the set of complete figures in 2021 dollars from The World Bank and not from the ONS using figures given to them by the Treasury - which has a vested interest in painting as rosy a picture as possible.

    U.K. Manufacturing Output - Historical Data
    YearBillions of US $% of GDP
    2021$279.39B8.77%
    2020$239.79B8.70%
    2019$255.62B8.88%
    2018$256.63B8.85%
    2017$241.50B8.95%
    2016$244.93B9.00%
    2015$272.40B9.21%
    2014$287.91B9.33%
    2013$266.47B9.51%
    2012$252.74B9.29%
    2011$249.80B9.34%
    2010$236.59B9.50%
    2009$220.91B9.11%
    2008$279.38B9.51%
    2007$299.62B9.65%
    2006$277.02B10.20%
    2005$267.63B10.52%
    2004$265.92B10.98%
    2003$238.76B11.61%
    2002$216.68B12.15%
    2001$204.67B12.45%
    2000$221.73B13.34%
    1999$233.46B13.85%
    1998$238.84B14.45%
    1997$234.85B15.06%
    1996$216.95B15.26%
    1995$208.45B15.48%
    1994$187.08B16.40%
    1993$166.45B15.68%
    1992$189.29B16.05%
    1991$185.86B16.26%
    1990$182.21B16.67%
     
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    IanSuth

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    I was bemused./annoyed/slightly miffed/incandescent (still to decide if just as expected) by the interview being shown this AM

    interviewers say "the markets reacted to your mini-budget"

    truss said "but we had to save people from the nasty energy bills what did you expect us to do"

    Interviews move on failing to say either "but bills will be higher anyway just not by as much and anyway the savings will be more than offset by rise in mortgages/resultant rents"
    or
    "if the markets were reacting to your energy plans they would have done so when those were announced - surely they were actually reacting to the scale of tax cuts and unfunded borrowing announced on last Friday"
     
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    Newchodge

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    I was bemused./annoyed/slightly miffed/incandescent (still to decide if just as expected) by the interview being shown this AM

    interviewers say "the markets reacted to your mini-budget"

    truss said "but we had to save people from the nasty energy bills what did you expect us to do"

    Interviews move on failing to say either "but bills will be higher anyway just not by as much and anyway the savings will be more than offset by rise in mortgages/resultant rents"
    or
    "if the markets were reacting to your energy plans they would have done so when those were announced - surely they were actually reacting to the scale of tax cuts and unfunded borrowing announced on last Friday"
    Well, it IS the BBC
     
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    IanSuth

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    More like Ark C - the one programmed to head towards the Sun.
    No A was scientists/leaders etc, C was people who actually did things, B was for pointless intermediaries and launched first (in fact the others were never launched but they got rid of the telephone sanitisers etc that way)

     
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    japancool

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    No A was scientists/leaders etc, C was people who actually did things, B was for pointless intermediaries and launched first (in fact the others were never launched but they got rid of the telephone sanitisers etc that way)


    Hah, haven't read Douglas Adams since I was at school.
     
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    gpietersz

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    Hairdressers. Nail salons. Betting shop clerks. Sociologists. Sports psychologists. Kebab shops.
    So where do I get my hair cut? Where do I get my kebabs? You are just listing things you do not like,
    That government chart is totally bogus. In 1990, manufacturing was 16.7% of GDP, By 2007 it had fallen to 10.2% and that was the very last time it went above 10% - last year it was at 8.8%.
    You are missing the point. A lower proportion of a bigger economy can be (and is in the case) a bigger amount.

    You are also looking at these numbers: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.IND.MANF.CD?locations=GB

    They still show a huge increase from 1990 to 2021, albeit with a lot of spikes inbetween,

    If you look at real terms numbers:



    Its shows similar growth but smoother.

    Diversity officers, they can do one!

    I agree, there are any number of useless jobs, but you will find them in manufacturing too. They have always been there in some form. Bullshit Jobs by David Graeber explains the reasons quite well (I do not agree with everything because of his ideological slant, but still worth reading).
     
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