Swine Flu - another reason not to shop??

[movietub]

No need to worry, in the most reliable paper on the market at the moment it said that as we are due to have a hot summer this will stop the spread of swine flu and it's in winter that the real problems will start but by that time nobody will be suffering so no pandemic.
Now I'm not a meteoroligist (or weatherman if i spelt it wrong) but I thought Mexico had a warmer climate than us so what has the hot summer got to do with anything.

I suppose they also have lower standards of general hygiene maybe...

I don't get the summer thing either. I have heard several experts say they expect a weak first wave through the summer then a much stronger wave through the winter. But does that mean the weak wave could be as severe as it was in Mexico?? Not exactly a silver lining!

At least by the time the second wave hits we will likely have the vaccine. Apparently it's on course to be ready in just 3 months. Quite impressive.

 

[Julian]

I suppose they also have lower standards of general hygiene maybe...

I don't get the summer thing either. I have heard several experts say they expect a weak first wave through the summer then a much stronger wave through the winter. But does that mean the weak wave could be as severe as it was in Mexico?? Not exactly a silver lining!

At least by the time the second wave hits we will likely have the vaccine. Apparently it's on course to be ready in just 3 months. Quite impressive.

For goodness sake! The total number of deaths was never huge anyway and Mexico just revised those numbers down to 101 people and that is in a country that has about an 80% greater population than the UK (i.e. not far off double the population). If a wave that weak hits us then, if it wasn't for the media, no one would notice. If you adjust just for population, ignoring better preparedness, you end up with about 61 people dying in the UK. If we avoided road deaths by everyone driving really carefully for 8 days, or not driving at all, then that would even things up nicely.

Still, venturing cautiously back on topic (Swine Flu - another reason not to shop??), maybe if lots of people do believe in a few months time that they've just dodged a bullet then maybe we'll see them exhibiting the sort of behaviour that apparently many survivors of near-death experiences exhibit and they'll decide that life is uncertain, they should live for the moment, and they'll go out and buy all the stuff they really wanted. (No, I'm not being entirely serious but hey, it was at least an attempt to get back on topic.)

- Julian

 

[Matt1959]

well I have the dubious distinction of living not even a quarter mile (maybe a few hundred yards) from the first person who hasn't been to Mexico to catch this thing in England

 

[cjd]

well I have the dubious distinction of living not even a quarter mile (maybe a few hundred yards) from the first person who hasn't been to Mexico to catch this thing in England

....now wash your hands.

 

[Matt1959]

one for Dawg, Scroll down to the two old dears sat on the bench in Paignton

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...flu-sickies-number-British-cases-hits-15.html

 

[cycloneuk]

one for Dawg, Scroll down to the two old dears sat on the bench in Paignton

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...flu-sickies-number-British-cases-hits-15.html

Oh god, the mask craze is coming over here, don't these stupid people know that the masks offer little protection. This virus is less deadly than seasonal flu apparently, so no need for mass panic just yet.

 

[movietub]

Daily mail headline:

Thousands take 'swine flu sickies' as number of British cases hits 15.

So it turns out that my 1% infected causes 10% to stay at home conservative argument for widespread disruption to staffing was in fact... conservative!

Why does no one else see this as entirely predicatble? People worrying is going to cause a right mess in day to day business and personal life.

 

[Cabal46]

Daily mail headline:

Thousands take 'swine flu sickies' as number of British cases hits 15.

So it turns out that my 1% infected causes 10% to stay at home conservative argument for widespread disruption to staffing was in fact... conservative!

Why does no one else see this as entirely predicatble? People worrying is going to cause a right mess in day to day business and personal life.

But what if they are genuinely sick? They can test for influenza A and get immediate results. If it's positive, a swab will be sent to CDC to check for the swine strain; this takes 2-3 days. The more people become ill, the more latency there will be between symptoms and cases confirmed, as the centres become overwhelmed.

Again, i feel this is just the tip of the iceberg with what stats we see through the main stream media, but i may be wrong.

p.s. In Canada, they have detected the first transmission from a human BACK to a pig. Egypt has already culled their pigs. Another foot 'n mouth perhaps?!

 

[movietub]

The biggest problem I have is that I'm about to be proved right (I fear) but I don;t want to be!

I've never wanted to be less right about anything, I've never been this dramatic about anything either, actually.

I wish I felt differently but right now I'm convinced the honey moon period of joking about people taking it seriously is about to become very short lived.

 

[An Oasis]

The biggest problem I have is that I'm about to be proved right (I fear) but I don;t want to be!

I've never wanted to be less right about anything, I've never been this dramatic about anything either, actually.

I wish I felt differently but right now I'm convinced the honey moon period of joking about people taking it seriously is about to become very short lived.

A tenner says this whole thing has blown over in a week!!!! Total ******** the whole thing, stop listening to the state controlled media, for they know not what they say (or rather they do and it's all ********).

 

[An Oasis]

...Again, i feel this is just the tip of the iceberg with what stats we see through the main stream media, but i may be wrong...

You bet you are.

p.s. In Canada, they have detected the first transmission from a human BACK to a pig.

At this point you know that there is a pervert operating!!!!!!!!!!! The swine.

 

[Cabal46]

...Again, i feel this is just the tip of the iceberg with what stats we see through the main stream media, but i may be wrong...
You bet you are.

AnOasis, we'll see what happens after bank holiday, once results are collated & returned from weekend; until then, we are both speculating.

I just fear that this virus is going to decimate the remaining economy, workforce and any semblance of normality. Perhaps there are people on respirators in USA as we speak, and their 'superior' medicare (compared to Mehhhico) is delaying the inevitable. Once ER's become saturated, then they can't hide the impact this virus is having.

It is now in Asia and that could be a breeding ground for H5N1 variants (bird flu), reassorting with the triple hybrid H151, currently floating around.

 

[An Oasis]

AnOasis, we'll see what happens after bank holiday, once results are collated & returned from weekend; until then, we are both speculating.

I just fear that this virus is going to decimate the remaining economy, workforce and any semblance of normality. Perhaps there are people on respirators in USA as we speak, and their 'superior' medicare (compared to Mehhhico) is delaying the inevitable. Once ER's become saturated, then they can't hide the impact this virus is having.

It is now in Asia and that could be a breeding ground for H5N1 variants (bird flu), reassorting with the triple hybrid H151, currently floating around.

You are too trusting of data...give it a couple of weeks and you will have forgotten about the whole thing...pig in a poke.

 

[Cabal46]

You are too trusting of data...give it a couple of weeks and you will have forgotten about the whole thing...pig in a poke.

Read this NewScientist article please, a pretty respectful source of data.

Key points:

"The limited sampling so far gives rise to considerable uncertainty in the estimate," cautions Rambaut. But if the rate at which genes mutate is about the same for this virus as for other H1N1 viruses, the number of mutations that have accumulated so far suggests it has been circulating since January – or even September 2008.

Also, the infection rate 'speculation':

A mathematical model permits the calculation of an important variable called R0 – the number of additional people infected, on average, by each case. If R0 is less than one, an infection dies out.

Grassly also cautions that the estimate is very preliminary. But with the data available now, he gets an R0 of 1.16 – enough for the virus to keep going, but only just.


This could be good news. In epidemiological theory, at least, the lower the R0, the easier it may be to snuff the virus out by further hindering its spread.


But it may be too early for celebrations. The 1918 flu pandemic, caused by another H1N1 virus, started with a mild, early wave in spring and early summer. The flu lab at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in the US estimates that the R0 of the 1918 virus in spring was only 1.45. That shot up, they estimate, to 3.75 when the virus began its lethal second wave the following autumn.


Much may now depend on how quickly the new H1N1 virus from swine adapts to people.

 

[Cabal46]

Just thought this post from someone on a forum would be interesting:

Tamiflu Maufacturing Predicted a 531% Sales Increase in 2009 !!

The following is from the Annual Report from 2008, on page 3 it shows predicted growth of 531%. What could they have done to know of this pending need in 2009.

Source: http://www.chugai-pharm.co.jp/pdf/annual_report/2009/eAR2009_12_04.pdf

 

[An Oasis]

Read this NewScientist article please, a pretty respectful source of data.

Dude we could lose 20 million people in the UK and not even notice...so what? Not that that will happen but what is your point? Stop reading the mainstream media, it's dead!

 

[kozrak]

I was in the Dr's surgery this morning. A woman next to me coughed. I didn't duck, run out of the building or stick her in a plastic bag.

ha but maybe you should have,

complacensy kills as well

and you only need to let your gaurd down once

 

[Dawg]

I just fear that this virus is going to decimate the remaining economy, workforce and any semblance of normality. Perhaps there are people on respirators in USA as we speak, and their 'superior' medicare (compared to Mehhhico) is delaying the inevitable. Once ER's become saturated, then they can't hide the impact this virus is having.

It is now in Asia and that could be a breeding ground for H5N1 variants (bird flu), reassorting with the triple hybrid H151, currently floating around.

I'm glad you said this. As an anti-tinfoilitarean uber-entropist I now feel safe.

 

[andymayhem]

Oh god, the mask craze is coming over here, don't these stupid people know that the masks offer little protection. This virus is less deadly than seasonal flu apparently, so no need for mass panic just yet.

Hi

I just wanted to clear up that the photo of the 2 OAPs was staged. Source

 

[mobyme]

p.s. In Canada, they have detected the first transmission from a human BACK to a pig!

I thought it was supposed to be a pig in a poke, not poking the pig.

 

[cjd]

Aporkalypse now.

 

[Cornish Steve]

Aporkalypse now.

That's simply awful. It reveals you're rasher than most, and that's not a porkie.

 

[Wild Goose]

One of the major worries of Global warming has been that bodies buried in the last plague of 1918 - particularly those in Tundra regios that were necessarily buried in shallow graves - have been "popping" out of the earth. The worry being that the unusual strain of virus responsible for that Spanish Flu pandemic might re-emerge into the human race.

So we have pig-flu instead. Same idea - a previously unencountered strain of virus that has evolved in one enormous leap into something we have little resistance to. We're talkin' huge numbers of the world's population - hundreds of millions if you accept that 90 years back when the world population was a fraction of what it is now, fifty milion pegged out.

It's not so much a question of if it happens; more a question of when. Fortunately for the UK, it'll hit us during summertime - just imagine the carnage if it were to hit during snowy season. It'll affect the elderly, so those with elderly parents are advised to check out their will situation as a matter of urgency. Face masks? They won't help much - this bug is too virulent.

 

[Cornish Steve]

One of the major worries of Global warming has been that bodies buried in the last plague of 1918 - particularly those in Tundra regios that were necessarily buried in shallow graves - have been "popping" out of the earth. The worry being that the unusual strain of virus responsible for that Spanish Flu pandemic might re-emerge into the human race.

I've heard some incredibly weird concerns associated with global warming, but this one takes the biscuit.

If you've ever been to New Orleans in the US, you'll know the city is a little below sea level (which is why it suffered such terrible flooding in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina). This means that bodies can't be buried underground. I've heard it's very scary to visit graveyards in New Orleans because dead bodies are sometimes visible after grave robbers have finished their work. Of course, during the Katrina flooding, many dead bodies floated out of these graveyards, which just added to the mess.

 

[Cabal46]

More tin foil hat stuff (you know you love it Dawg)...

It looks like level 6 is imminent, although level 5 & 6 are more or less the same, as it is spreading from human to human on different continents. They are delaying level 6, whilst they lay down preliminary measures in countries, so they are ready for the public response.

Give it a few days, otherwise i'll eat my words.

 

[Wild Goose]

I've heard some incredibly weird concerns associated with global warming, but this one takes the biscuit.

It's true I tell you. Apparently it happens a lot in Norway, where the 1919 flu pandemic hit hard and infected corpses were hurriedly shoved a foot or so underground. The worry is that the bodies are perfectly preserved, flu virus et al, due to the permafrost.

I'm worried Swine Fever might be followed by Reindeer Flu.

If you've ever been to New Orleans in the US, you'll know the city is a little below sea level... This means that bodies can't be buried underground.... Of course, during the Katrina flooding, many dead bodies floated out of these graveyards, which just added to the mess.

Ahha, so the Katrina death toll wasn't so high after all then - most of them were already dead!

 

[360interactive]

More tin foil hat stuff (you know you love it Dawg)...

It looks like level 6 is imminent, although level 5 & 6 are more or less the same, as it is spreading from human to human on different continents. They are delaying level 6, whilst they lay down preliminary measures in countries, so they are ready for the public response.

Give it a few days, otherwise i'll eat my words.

the public response willbe no different. Everyone accepts that on paper, we've been at level 6 for a while.

These who levels along with the uk alert levels have been a joke. Do you think everyone is going to freak out as soon as it goes to 6?!

 

[greeneast]

I have had a great increase in the number of people coming to our site this last week looking for antibacterial products and buying foam hand rubs, wipes and surface sprays.

Funny thing is - Flu is a Virus!

Good job those same products are antiviral too, if that's what they want to protect against. But this level of protection should be "Daily Hygiene" because prevention is always better than cure.

This shouldn't be media pushed, it should be constant. Its not just the Swine Flu we should be concerned about but any common cold (always inconvenient and unpleasant to catch), common flu, e-coli, salmonella, MRSA, and many other bacteria and viruses that we are at risk of catching in public places and in our own homes. This also includes TB for cats and Parvovirus for dogs.

To the point -Yes the media has affected my business.
When they said "Recession" sales virtually stopped.
When they said "People are buying more online" sales increased again. When they said "Swine-Flu" - more google visits for antibacterial.
What stories can we start next?

 

[adam]

Between some of you and the Governments desire to wreck us all I think it is time to close the shop/office and sit at home waiting for it to hit.

To the doom mongers on here - do you actually run real businesses or do you just exist to scare others and stop other people from fulfilling real ideas?

 

[cjd]

To the doom mongers on here - do you actually run real businesses or do you just exist to scare others and stop other people from fulfilling real ideas?

Oh quite definitely the second. Much more fun.

der

 

[ukherefor_you]

Its pathetic and as always brown has taken it to extreme!

There is no reason to stay away from busy areas, dont shop etc.

If the swine flu does hit this Country, it will be a very mild version and not likely to kill, just make people ill.

 

[Wild Goose]

Even in the mild pandemic in the 'sixties a million plus died. Always happens when there's a completely new strain of flu virus. The 1919 pandemic killed tens of millions - a far more dangerous strain - and the World Medical Council are forecasting that this flu, if it takes hold, will be as severe as that 1919 Spanish flu.

People will become more than ill I'm afraid. History repeats itself.

A medical friend tells me all leave at the Hospital he runs is being cancelled. They're bracing themselves for it.

 

[Julian]

Here's a good article to put this into perspective: http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/28/regular.flu/index.html

The last time I checked there had been 1 death in the US due to Swine Flu (maybe; it's debatable as to whether that death really counts as a US statistic). Regular seasonal flu has already killed 13,000 people in the US during 2009 and that number grows by about 800 a week. The report didn't even look at the entire US, only the 122 largest cities.

It's all a question of probabilities though. There will come a time when a mutation of the flu virus emerges that is both infectious enough to spread widely and lethal enough to cause a significantly higher death rate than regular seasonal flu but it is not a foregone conclusion that this particular virus will acquire the necessary (to it) mutations to transform itself from over-alarmist-tabloid-fodder to spanish-flu:the-sequel.

- Julian

 

[Esk247]

well it appears to be slowing down...and as many say, thousands die worldwide every year from other types of flu!

there is also a heart problem that attacks people around the UK with flu like symptoms but puts you out of action for 6 months atleast and many people are forced in to early retirement from it but yet..this is relatively un reported.

12 people every week die from sudden heart failure in the UK alone. many between the ages of 18 and 25...it's put as an unexplained death..instead of being properely investigated.

 

[movietub]

Between some of you and the Governments desire to wreck us all I think it is time to close the shop/office and sit at home waiting for it to hit.

To the doom mongers on here - do you actually run real businesses or do you just exist to scare others and stop other people from fulfilling real ideas?

Doom mongers?

I run a business and am concerned - this will obviously (seems obvious to me) have a big effect on day to day life as the virus gets into full swing. It will do, flu always does.

I think you need to consider that there is a massive difference between being sensationalist over every minor drama the media get hold of, and keeping an eye out for the early signs of something which actually will cause a great deal of disruption.

I think anyone that posts on this thread simply to mock those that they suspect are being dramatic needs to read more thoroughly and realise that in the most part people are showing a degree of intelligence in their reasoning. The weakest arguments all seem to be coming from those that stop by just to say 'Pah! it'll all be over in a week!'.

 

[newbeats4u]

I went to Alton Towers today.. It was really quiet hardly anyone there. I dont know if it was the poor weather forecast or the threat of swine flu maybe. The media have created panic with this swine flu business.

But needless to say I had fun and no cold as of yet

 

[Esk247]

it's not just this swine flu that is causing people to stay away...it's the recession! bookings are down across the board..and this is from a few months ago before this flu outbreak.

the problem now is that children are getting it..and they spread things like wild fire what with schools containing them all within a few feet of eachother...us older lot tend to stay at desks and keep a distance from others and so the chance of catching it is minimal from adult to adult...we also have a stronger resistance.

 

[Wild Goose]

the problem now is that children are getting it..and they spread things like wild fire what with schools containing them all within a few feet of eachother...us older lot tend to stay at desks and keep a distance from others and so the chance of catching it is minimal from adult to adult...we also have a stronger resistance.

Well I've just seen the Government leaflet, the one that's going out to every household in the UK, and it warns that you can pick up this flu virus from door handles, keyboards, and work surfaces. According to the leaflet, any flu virus can lurk and survive many hours on these surfaces. Shaking hands is also a bad idea. Yours truly plans to salute his clients from now on.

Wish I was in the rubber glove business!

I agree children just cough and sneeze directly at each other. A week from now and half the schools in London will be closed.

 

[Wild Goose]

I went to Alton Towers today.. It was really quiet hardly anyone there. I dont know if it was the poor weather forecast or the threat of swine flu maybe. The media have created panic with this swine flu business.

But needless to say I had fun and no cold as of yet

Did you go on the Water Chute? If so, did you wear gloves? Although the Government leaflet doesn't specifically mention water chutes, the grab bars on water chute rides are exactly the sort of place the reassuring government leaflet says can harbour a flu virus for many hours.

The leaflet is going to cause mass-panic. I'd already noticed yesterday how Sainsbury's had sold out of beef sausages but had racks of unsold swine - sorry, pork, sausages. The leaflet might cause us to all go round wearing gloves not to mention masks, and avoid using communal toilets such as the ones at the office. Sales of air-fresheners are due to soar!

 

[newbeats4u]

Yup i certainly did go on the water rides and got soaked so hopefully i Dont get a double whammy of unfortunate things happening to me.