Swine Flu - another reason not to shop??

[movietub]

Now Mr Brown has ordered 32 million extra face masks for this country we can assume its likely at some point people are going to be advised against spending time in busy areas. As already has happened over the Atlantic.

I'm sure most level headed people would not be so dramatic but this is surely going to have a knock on effect to the types of businesses already suffering under the recession. In particular Resturants, shops and leisure facilities.

Have there been any other similar situations to compare the possible effects with? What about SARS, did that cause people to stay at home more and spend less?

 

[tcg]

We really need to put some perspective on this.

Gordon getting prepared is a given. It would be irresponsible for him not to. No one can predict what is going to happen. We would all panic if he had not ordered extra face masks.

However, we know what happens when the media get hold of a story!

A few quotes I have seen on Twitter in the last few days that allowed me to gain some perspective:

"Over 200 people a week die in Mexico city from chest related causes". (Not swine flu)

We have little context around these deaths. Yes the 100+ might all be related to swine flu but we do not know their state of health prior to contacting the disease, their level of nutrition etc.

The second one was from a South African. He wrote:

"If u send me another msg about the stupid swine flu and don't take ur retarded butt for a free hiv test imma slap yo momma! wake up ppl!"
"Interupting my day ova an some retarded disease that you've known about for 8.5 days"
"an ignoring the one that has f'ed up the entire world for over 25 yrs. "

Obviously the prevalence of HIV in South Africa is worrying.

We do need a balance.

 

[i234i]

Seems a bit blown out of size, i was up at Monklands Hospital in Airdrie and it was all fine there with the people who are in... i dont mean fine, but not the way the news are making it out.

 

[movietub]

Well of course its blown out of all proportion! It think the point has been missed.

But since when does the reasoned reality of a situation make the slightest difference to the general publics reaction to what they are told? Surely that is all business owners care about.

A huge number of people go through their life doing what they are advised to the letter.

 

[Dominic Taylor]

Personally I think the 'swine' flu is giving the media something to talk about other than recession, doom and gloom, and of course the awful budget.

Things are more serious in Mexico than here of course, but there's so many variables and possibilities. It's not worth doing anything other than sensible precautions, and letting those in power take the appropriate precautions. Of couse they're ordering millions of [flu-related items], it'd be irresponsible not to. Doesn't mean we're all gonna die

 

[movietub]

Personally I think the 'swine' flu is giving the media something to talk about other than recession, doom and gloom, and of course the awful budget.

Things are more serious in Mexico than here of course, but there's so many variables and possibilities. It's not worth doing anything other than sensible precautions, and letting those in power take the appropriate precautions. Of couse they're ordering millions of [flu-related items], it'd be irresponsible not to. Doesn't mean we're all gonna die

I agree - irrelevant to the thread though...

 

[Dawg]

One door closes and another door opens..

 

[cycloneuk]

Until it starts killing people here in the UK then i will not be concerned. At least like the above poster said, it gives the media something else to talk about other than the credit crunch.

 

[movietub]

One door closes and another door opens..

On the plus side I like your logo a lot - well done! Not sure your new product is winner though...

 

[movietub]

Until it starts killing people here in the UK then i will not be concerned. At least like the above poster said, it gives the media something else to talk about other than the credit crunch.

Well its sort of inevitable that people here will get it and that like any other flu it could easily take the lifes of someone very elderly, for example.

Of course this happens everyday with normal flu - its not worth being shocked about. But it seems foolhardy to simply not consider the effect it will have when the media hype the few inevitable cases that are to much for an already weak sufferer to recover from.

I'm not suggesting anyone should be overly concerned about the virus itself. Just from a business perspective this is another issue that will put a % of people off visiting a busy shopping centre and so fourth.

 

[dingbat]

I was in the Dr's surgery this morning. A woman next to me coughed. I didn't duck, run out of the building or stick her in a plastic bag.

 

[movietub]

I was in the Dr's surgery this morning. A woman next to me coughed. I didn't duck, run out of the building or stick her in a plastic bag.

Well done.

I can see this thread has been started prematurely. People are more keen to respond to the subject they expected to be posted rather than the subject actually posted. A great example of why some people will be effected by what they think is the situation rather than reading deeper into it themselves before responding.

Be warned though, if there is a resultant dip in high street shopping when the fear mongering takes hold I shall dig this thread out with a big 'I told you so on it'.

 

[Dominic Taylor]

I agree - irrelevant to the thread though...

I was agreeing that it's being blown out of proportion due to the media wanting to talk about it, so any sensible person wouldn't decide to stay at home. I don't think it's anywhere near that stage here yet, and haven't heard anyone deciding to stay at home because of it.

There's probably a slightly different strain of the virus in Mexico which caused it to be deadly there, but because it was so deadly it was unable to spread. The economics of viruses are quite interesting, it has to be able to survive to spread but of course that means it's also less deadly because you don't want to kill your hosts before you get the chance to spread....the worry is that an in-between virus evolves and the result is pandemic.

I expect the only 'recent' comparator is the 1968 outbreak, SARS was really confined to asia with a few other outbreaks so that didn't affect us - as far as I know, I could be wrong

 

[andymayhem]

I have just recieved my 1st marketing email jumping on the Swine Flu panic from Protec. To be fair, it's taken 3 days longer than I though it should have.

 

[tcg]

Movietub. I understand what you are asking. Absolutely this has the potential to dampen an already soggy retail market.

We like to analyse this stuff. What was the cost to the English retail market with England not making the European cup?

This year it is cumulative. We have the downturn (put mildly) and we have this swine flu scare. What next. I am sure an analyst will be looking at this and we will see it on an interactive screen in the news.

Looking at the trend here, it would seem that the scare mongering has not affected people yet. Whether we are all sick of the doom and gloom, or perhaps we all resigned to our fate. I like to think that there is a sense that the media has created this and we wait to see what is really happening once the media dust has settled.

 

[Dominic Taylor]

I have just recieved my 1st marketing email jumping on the Swine Flu panic from Protec. To be fair, it's taken 3 days longer than I though it should have.

- 3M 9332 Comfort Plus FFP3 Valved Respirator (Box of 10)
- Dupont Tyvek Classic Hooded Coverall - Qty 10, Size XL
- Smartguard Latex Disposable Gloves - Box of 100, Size Large
- TPR950 Dupont Tyvek Overshoes - Pack of 10, Size XL
- 9301-105 Uvex Ultravision Goggle
- FAF400ML Florafree 400ml Alcohol Foam

What I'd give to see Gordon Brown et al on TV wearing that

 

[Dawg]

Movietub,

Might the slight levity and non accurate response here be an answer in itself? We aren't treating it that seriously and most people won't take it that seriously given the level of advice: I've just heard the Health Minister on Radio Two say the official advice is "Wash your hands".

Arrgghh! We are all going to Dieeee!.... Unless we wash our hands.

FFS huh?

It's rubbish, and the sort of people who are going to stop going out because of it will largely be the sort of people with limited....spending power?

After the

• Chicken flu scare
• BSE/Mad cow in humans scare
• Terrorists on every corner scare
• Kentish SEO madmen eating babies scare (Honest guv)

it's all becoming a bit 'Boy who cried wolf', hopefully with a happier ending.

Still, lucky-lucky mask makers, and happy-smiley leaflet printers.

 

[Emcar Vending]

If they stay at home it could ebgood news for online sales.

 

[deniser]

If they stay at home it could ebgood news for online sales.

As long as the items you are selling do not require use in public.

I was thinking this might be good for my business but quickly decided it wouldn't as people will not be dressing up to stay at home.

Might be good for DVD and online food sales though - if you can get anyone to deliver them in the pandemic.

 

[streetslocal]

Swine flu---
There is a cure....

OINKMENT.....

 

[spreadsheetsdirect]

It will be good for all the drug companies and face mask makers even though the newspaper today was saying that the masks won't stop you catching it. I'm sure email scammers offering tamiflu will also do well. There's always money to be made from fear.

 

[silvermusic]

It will be good for all the drug companies and face mask makers even though the newspaper today was saying that the masks won't stop you catching it. I'm sure email scammers offering tamiflu will also do well. There's always money to be made from fear.

Like in a goldrush, the only people that make the money is those that sell picks and shovels.

 

[Beadons]

Movietub,

After the

• Chicken flu scare
• BSE/Mad cow in humans scare
• Terrorists on every corner scare
• Kentish SEO madmen eating babies scare (Honest guv)

it's all becoming a bit 'Boy who cried wolf', hopefully with a happier ending.

Still, lucky-lucky mask makers, and happy-smiley leaflet printers.

You forgot the flesh eating disease. Judging by the size of my waist, I'm not affected

Seriously, I've had a pig of a day and don't feel too good. Think I'll stay in doors and watch tv - don't want to pass it on

 

[GRDCredit]

My wife needed to but some petrol yesterday but was too scared because of swine flu. Silly cow - I told her it was in Mexico not Texaco.


I rang the swine flu hotline today but all I got was crackling on the line.


Why did the mexican sneeze on his wife? Tequila

 

[GRDCredit]

Apparantly scientists have now discovered how the swine flu pandemic started:

http://imgur.com/27K39.jpg

 

[movietub]

Movietub,

Might the slight levity and non accurate response here be an answer in itself? We aren't treating it that seriously and most people won't take it that seriously given the level of advice: I've just heard the Health Minister on Radio Two say the official advice is "Wash your hands".

Arrgghh! We are all going to Dieeee!.... Unless we wash our hands.

FFS huh?

It's rubbish, and the sort of people who are going to stop going out because of it will largely be the sort of people with limited....spending power?

I don't think peoples responses on here are an accurate indicator of the general public at all. The majotity on this forum are here becasue they are independant thinkers and choose to live a life guided by their own decisions. People on here either do or aspire to run a business.

A huge % of the general public do not like to go their own direction and perfer the security of the pack and simply assume the people on TV are the experts and the sensible source of information and advice.

As tcg said analysts will already be looking at the cumlative efect of this on top of the recession - I was suggesting people on here might show an interest too!

 

[Officebird]

MovieTub,

In answer to your OP....

I think Foot and Mouth is the closest we have seen to people being restricted (either through advice or physically restricted) from public places. Foot and Mouth caused a massive amount of damage to businesses of all types in certain parts of the country, like B & Bs, local shops, tourist attractions etc let alone the poor farmers.

If the Government, or the media, were to suggest people don't spend much time in crowded areas there will definately be an impact on businesses, but not just retail. What about office blocks and the like? If the scaremongering isn't contained then there will be a bad knock on effect for this countries economy in the whole.

 

[deniser]

Had to laugh when I noticed the Pinky Pig label on the handwash in our bathroom (chosen by my daughter when we were out shopping).

 

[Julian]

The level of complacency here is alarming. My bio-hazard suit should arrive tomorrow at which point it should be safe for me to go out to the supermarket to stock up on emergency supplies. I'll also be visiting my local DIY store but I'm unsure at this time as to whether plywood or blockboard would be the best choice for barricading my doors and windows; I suppose I'll have to risk a trip to the newsagent to pick up a copy of one of the tabloid newspapers which I'm sure will have a helpful article to guide me on this issue.

- Julian

 

[movietub]

Cheers Sara - At least with foot & mouth you had to go where the cattle had been to worry about picking it up, this being flu it has already proven it will jump person to person in a very short contact time. It can go where people go and WILL mostly go where the most people go.

Looking strictly at the facts there is no reason to presume this will claim a higher percentage of lives from those infected in developed countries than any other flu.

But it is also true to say that so many more people will pick up the flu than any other. If just 1 in a thousand people who contract it die and only 20% do contract it in this country you have about 5000 deaths that the media would link to swine flu.

A national health analyst would say other things cause equal death rates so not a massive issue.

A economic analyst would say that if something new wipes out 5000 people then the media led fear would seriously alter day to day life in a number of ways.

If just a few 5% of people start taking days off work if they think the flu is 'in the office' or 'on the train/bus' then disruption to trade and infrastructure occurs.

I think its mindless not to expect this to give the economy another big knock.

 

[cjd]

Blown out of all proportion? Scare stories?

1918: The Spanish flu pandemic remains the most devastating outbreak of modern times - infecting up to 40% of the world's population and killing more than 50m people, with young adults particularly badly affected

1957: Asian flu killed two million people. Caused by a human form of the virus, H2N2, combining with a mutated strain found in wild ducks. The elderly were particularly vulnerable

1968: An outbreak first detected in Hong Kong, and caused by a strain known as H3N2, killed up to one million people globally, with those over 65 most likely to die

 

[GRDCredit]

At the risk of making light of this:

http://i568.photobucket.com/albums/ss129/Andyeaston/NewImage.jpg?t=1241095347

 

[movietub]

Blown out of all proportion? Scare stories?

Since no one can be immuised agaisnt this any more than the other major (and recent!) flu pandemics then there appears no reason to think less people will contract it.

This is in a different league to the bird flu scare, this one seems to jump as easily as a common cold. And why should it not? It's just the flu - one we are not immune too yet or anytime soon.

Luckily we can fight it much more easily with better drugs and the vaccines roll off the production line a lot faster now. I see no evidence that the flu alone is life threatening for a normal healthy person in a developed world. Thats why its not worth worrying about the disease itself.

It really is more of a concern of general panic/concern and the economical effects that will have.

 

[cjd]

 

[Dawg]

:
1918: The Spanish flu pandemic remains the most devastating outbreak of modern times - infecting up to 40% of the world's population and killing more than 50m people, with young adults particularly badly affected

1957: Asian flu killed two million people. Caused by a human form of the virus, H2N2, combining with a mutated strain found in wild ducks. The elderly were particularly vulnerable

1968: An outbreak first detected in Hong Kong, and caused by a strain known as H3N2, killed up to one million people globally, with those over 65 most likely to die

A few points:

• In 1918 the world was at a health low, especially Europe, and the epidemic was thus devastating.
• How many of the deaths would have been reported anyway, but with other causes being given? About 140,000 people die a day at the moment, if Swine flu doesn't get them something else will.
• The first transmission of the new virus is virulent. After that it rapidly diminishes in both infectiousness and affect.

Statistics, bloody statistics and downright swinish lies?

 

[cjd]

Statistics, bloody statistics and downright swinish lies?

porky pies?

Don't bother calling NHS Direct, all you get is crackling

 

[GRDCredit]

Oh my God I think I might have it - I've come out in rashers!

I wonder if I should rub on some oinkment.

 

[movietub]

I'm loving the jokes but imagine if this did turn into something very serious.

This thread would seem a little fateful then :redface:

Can't see it happening to be honest, whats a touch of the flu when the government shafts us every day anyway.

 

[cjd]

I'm loving the jokes but imagine if this did turn into something very serious.

Seems likely that it will - hence the need for jokes.

 

[movietub]

Seems likely that it will - hence the need for jokes.

I get that impression too. Sometimes you just know that the thing world leaders say probably won't happen is almost certain to happen the next day!

By the time it's discovered its already climbed onboard a number of airplanes and been found all over the world.

Will it spread rapidly?? Hmmmm.... Of course it bloody will! It's a airbourne virus

Not being sensationalist but the above are pretty much the core facts that we do know.