Solar PV and Solar Thermal - BIG SCALE, BIG RETURN!

cjd

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    Even an 8 year payback is too long for me I'm afraid; but you're forgetting to include any maintenance and the very important fact that your £8k could be earning about 3% pa compound interest in the bank.

    So if you do a DCF cashflow analysis you push the return back so far you can hardly see it.

    Plus; that idiot Prince Charles has just got permission to put them on Clarence House so it must be daft.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/new...o-install-solar-panels-on-Clarence-House.html
     
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    The installation of the 32 panels on the building’s south-east roof is expected to cost as much as £150,000, which will take 10 years to recoup in reduced energy bills.


    The photovaltic panels are expected to produce 4,000 kilowatt hours of electricity – enough to power and heat an average London home. :|


    Strange when I lived in London I did not have a house like this.?;)

    clarence_1703003c.jpg


    Earl
     
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    cjd

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    i was reading to avoid soaring energy costs, try investing in geothermal heating and cooling, i installed the setup in my previous home for $18 000 CAD last year, less 50% government rebate i enjoyed it for 3 months till i sold my property. i believe if you truly want to be green you need to be off the grid map

    I've just replaced the windows and doors in my home and had cavity wall insulation blown in. (This too is heavily subsidised but is cheap in any case).

    I don't expect the windows and doors to pay back - but they will at some point. My motivation was to save painting them every 3 years and to make my house more comfortable - and look better.

    With Solar panels the motivation is quite different - putting aside for the moment any green motivations, it's simply a financial calculation; you get nothing else for your dosh other than cashback and electricity; in my case you also get an eyesore stuck on the front of the house.

    So if the finances don't really wash, the only justification is being a bit greener. That's not enough in my view and it's disappointing that PV technology is so utterly crap that even an 80% subsidy doesn't allow it to compete with existing power production.

    I suspect a production scam - for as long as governments are prepared to subsidise PV it will remain stupidly expensive.
     
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    cjd

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    Along with the weather in the UK.:)

    Interested to know how much diference the insulation has made to your house.?

    Earl


    Dunno yet, need to see a winter. But as i've replaced all window and doors too I'll probably not be able to tell which is doing what.

    What a performance though. To get the subsidy they also block up all ventilation into your home - air bricks that ventilate the now filled cavity etc.

    You have to block up your chimney. I have two chimneys so I pinned a chunk of hardboard across them - it was obviously just a temporary hack but it allowed the jobsworths to tick their box.

    Because they house loses it's draughts they say you also need you to install direct ventilation to any open gas fires. I removed mine, then put it back when they'd gone. Ticked another box. They completely missed the Aga.

    Probably die of carbon monoxide poisoning sometime in Januaray.
     
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    LicensedToTrade

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    Get an alarm had one for years.One is much more likely to die from Carbon Monoxide than fire ,the silent killer.:|

    Earl

    Agreed. You can buy the little colour changing spots but unfortunately they only alert you if you physically look at them... all they really do is let the coroner know what you died of more quickly. The electronic alarms can be picked up for less than £25.00. It should really be the law that any domestic property with a gas supply has one fitted.
     
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    Hi guys,

    Excuse me wading in here, and for my not 100% knowledge of the facts, but I do know a little about this system - having both considered it as an investment for next year, plus one of our clients sells this equipment themselves.

    As I understand it :

    - a 2kw array on a property should cost in the region of £8k installed - although the costs are on a scale ie the more you purchase the cheaper the equipment becomes, ie a 4kw array was more in the region of £13-14k to supply and fit.

    - for each KW of energy produced, the Feed in Tarriff system pays 41.3p back.

    - the 3p per KW "export" amount isnt actually calculated on what is put back into the main grid, as its difficult for them to calculate what is actually put back an assumption is made that 50% of all energy produced by the PV array is fed back into the grid.

    So in real terms its 41.3 + (3 / 2) = 42.8p per KW paid back.

    Note that the feed in tarriff figures per kwh drop if the array installed is larger than 4kw.

    The figure quoted here of £933 per year seems about right, I did have a leaflet here from my client with the figures on, although its not come to hand at the moment (as usual). So to my reckoning that works out as approximately an 8 year return on my original investment, and then 17 years of guaranteed regular income after that!

    I've actually seen the first statement that someone I know (who lives in the midlands) received after installing a 2kw array in March this year - he received a cheque for £305 for the period April 1st - June 30th 2010.

    In terms of maintenance, it should be fairly minimal, as depending on the manufacturer of the panel of choice, the manufacturers warranty on the panels is 25 years. They guarantee that the panels will function at x% efficiency after 15 years and y% efficiency after 25 years. Either X or Y is 85% (I think its Y but again I cant be sure at this late hour!).

    From a purely personal opinion, I've been seriously considering it as an idea - I have 3 properties on which these can be installed on and I'm seriously considering doing it in one go - which will bring the costs of the panels down - and as they are 3 seperate properties, none of them will be above the 4kw limit mentioned above, so will all qualify for the higher feed in tarriff.

    Also, the current scheme is in place until at least March 2012, at which point it is due for review (so I wouldnt be surprised if it gets stopped then!).

    As I said, purely my 2p worth, and I do bow to those with higher knowledge of the product than me - I'm just a humble web designer after all! If it would help, I can always ask my client to come on here and try to clear up any questions on the issue - but I'm reticent to just do so off my own back in case it looks like blatant advertising! :D


    Cheers

    Ewan
    Ewan

    PM me. I'll put you a proposal together which will deliver for you

    Morganian
     
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    The installation of the 32 panels on the building’s south-east roof is expected to cost as much as £150,000, which will take 10 years to recoup in reduced energy bills.


    The photovaltic panels are expected to produce 4,000 kilowatt hours of electricity – enough to power and heat an average London home. :|


    Strange when I lived in London I did not have a house like this.?;)

    clarence_1703003c.jpg


    Earl




    32 panels at 4kwh for £150,000??,

    [insert expletive here]

    Actual cost is less than 10% of this. Media (sorry - The Guardian - we don't really class them as a newspaper do we!?!??) say £150k. Nope. Wrong wrong wrong. Guess who's acted as consultant to the install company?
     
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    willitbe

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    As a born cynic, I at first turned my nose at these claims...but after careful consideration and talking to a friend who is now accredited by the MCS, I tend to now agree that for people with the money to install these systems, they are going to return them a decent figure over the term.

    Like all things like this, the wild claims need to be kept in check, but so far I haven't seen many.

    Let's be honest, in the last ten years, we have become a copying nation of people, if someone has something new and gimmicky, we all want one.

    I remember in the early 90's, I started selling a few mobile phones on behalf of someone else, I got a car, painted it orange, put stickers on it "Free mobile phone" etc, everyone laughed at me, said it would never work,why would anyone want a mobile phone etc etc, so I bowed to the ridicule and stopped it there and then.

    Mmm. Mobiles will never catch on eh?....:eek:

    Solar Photovoltaic will be big business in the next 2 years, now is the time to adopt!

    If there are any Finance operators reading this, I would like you to PM me please with regards some advice...

    Cheers Will:)
     
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    ecohome

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    Morganian,

    I for one wish you continued success. I'm totally up for any green technology that can provide alternative energy or fuel that in some way benefit the consumer, especially cost-savings.

    I believe PV is well proven worldwide and will be the UK's next big business sector.

    I cant understand why some people are so against the idea or your business model but then again I'm trying to get involved myself so perhaps I'm biased.

    If you can send me any information or provide any start-up help I'd appreciate it.

    The only thing I would say is using Chinese panels doesn't really sit right with the whole carbon footprint agenda, so how do you square this?

    BTW: I'm nowhere near Somerset ;)

    Well done.

    Regards,

    Jim.
     
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    cjd

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    Has anyone got an answer to this?/

    Given that the numbers don't work in the sunny south, they're not going to improve by going North ;-)
     
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    cjd

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    cjd

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    The numbers I spoke about earlier in the thread about whether PV makes a good financial investment for the customer. It doesn't - even with the massive subsidy.
     
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    willitbe

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    The numbers I spoke about earlier in the thread about whether PV makes a good financial investment for the customer. It doesn't - even with the massive subsidy.


    I suspect you have something quite impressive to back that statement up?

    Cjd....PV works with the subsidy, full stop. There is no better return currently for the money invested unless it is illegal.

    Awaiting your well thought out and factual reply....

    Cheers Will
     
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    cjd

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    Awaiting your well thought out and factual reply....

    Cheers Will

    Why wait when you can read my calculations in the thread?
     
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    willitbe

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    Why wait when you can read my calculations in the thread?


    I have but they aren't correct, so which figures are you working from and for what size system?

    And where are you getting RPI linked , tax free returns for 12 grand without effort?

    (Assuming your 12 grand figure has been quoted for the correct sized system)
     
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    cjd

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    I have but they aren't correct, so which figures are you working from and for what size system?

    And where are you getting RPI linked , tax free returns for 12 grand without effort?

    (Assuming your 12 grand figure has been quoted for the correct sized system)

    <sigh>

    It doesn't matter what assumptions you use, payback is years out (just divide the annual income into the capital cost). With any investment, the further away the payback, the more risk is involved.

    What everyone seems to conveniently forget is that if you put the money in a tax free ISA you get a tax free return PLUS at the end of the costing period you get your £10,000 back again. With the PV you've spent it, sorry.

    But that aside, my main point is that even with that MASSIVE subsidy, it's still a crap investment which shows how useless the technology still is. That's really disappointing.
     
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    willitbe

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    <sigh>

    It doesn't matter what assumptions you use, payback is years out (just divide the annual income into the capital cost). With any investment, the further away the payback, the more risk is involved.

    What everyone seems to conveniently forget is that if you put the money in a tax free ISA you get a tax free return PLUS at the end of the costing period you get your £10,000 back again. With the PV you've spent it, sorry.

    But that aside, my main point is that even with that MASSIVE subsidy, it's still a crap investment which shows how useless the technology still is. That's really disappointing.


    Added: I am refraining from making you look lost until you give me figures...
    A crap investment?.

    You know the car you bought last year for 20 grand? (An example of course), what does it now return you?

    I'm not convinced anybody in this world would be able to keep 10 grand in an ISA for 25 years, i know that it would need to be resubmitted etc, without breaking the cycle for something needed that is expensive.

    Did you answer the question about the 12 grand cost? And for what size Kwp it was?

    The rule of thumb is a 8 percent return over 25 years with no further investment, other than perhaps a new inverter.

    Nothing currently offers that and that excludes savings on the inevitable fuel costs price rise..

    Why is it such a crap investment, when nothing out there offers the same return when all things are considered, it is better than property yields currently?.

    I suspect you are probably getting a little confused with figures me ole'd!

    Cheers Will
     
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    cjd

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    I suspect you are probably getting a little confused with figures me ole'd!
    Cheers Will

    Just read the thread, all the questions you're asking have already been answered.

    If this technology powered my house I MIGHT consider it, but it doesn't; it's just another financial con that is unsustainable.
     
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    D

    Deleted member 9840

    My simple understanding is:

    1) Spend £6k on a renewable heat source.

    2) Reclaim £1K/annum for the next 20 years under the FIT

    3) Outlay £6K, Return £14K........simple.

    Any company involved in this will £££££ do well!!!

    So it cost you £6k to buy £14K ?

    Get them now until they cotton on and stop it. Remember Steve Cool, he's your man or maybe should I change my name to Steve Heat.

    Steve
     
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    willitbe

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    My simple understanding is:

    1) Spend £6k on a renewable heat source.

    2) Reclaim £1K/annum for the next 20 years under the FIT

    3) Outlay £6K, Return £14K........simple.

    Any company involved in this will £££££ do well!!!

    So it cost you £6k to buy £14K ?

    Get them now until they cotton on and stop it. Remember Steve Cool, he's your man or maybe should I change my name to Steve Heat.

    Steve


    Not quite!!

    But the notion is there.
     
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    willitbe

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    Just read the thread, all the questions you're asking have already been answered.

    If this technology powered my house I MIGHT consider it, but it doesn't; it's just another financial con that is unsustainable.

    Electricity doesn't power your house now I suspect!!

    But you not only use consider it, you use it!

    CJD...Can I just have the figures you have based your assumption on please?

    Size of system:

    Cost of System:

    Term:

    Those figures are not there, no matter how many times I look.
     
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    cjd

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    Good grief.

    The web site gives the cost of a 2Kw system at £12K and an income of £933pa. Others have said £12k is too high and it should be £10k. It doesn't matter, even at £10k the payback is 11 years. And that's without any assumptions about maintenance or electrical degradation.

    I'm simply not interested in a payback of 11 years - anything could go wrong in that time; including the subsidy being pulled or my roof needing replacing. (I've never stayed in the same house for longer that 5 years - and please don't talk to me about bonds.....)

    It's a con.
     
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    willitbe

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    Good grief.

    The web site gives the cost of a 2Kw system at £12K and an income of £933pa. Others have said 312 is too high and it should be £10k. It doesn't matter, even at £10k the payback is 11 years. And that's without any assumptions about maintenance or electrical degradation.

    I'm simply not interested in a payback of 11 years - anything could go wrong in that time; including the subsidy being pulled or my roof needing replacing. (I've never stayed in the same house for longer that 5 years - and please don't talk to me about bonds.....)

    It's a con.


    This is the problem CJD. As I suspected....


    Using others' figures as "The going rate"...Naive at best..

    It might not be for you, that is granted but I fitted a 4Kwp system for 12.5 grand, The returns from FITS alone are 1700 quid, add to that the savings from the leccy bill of approx 140 equates to a saving at current rates of 1840 p.a tax free.....Good luck getting the same from your local post office me old yokel!

    If you can get better figures from your savings then good on ya.

    I appreciate opinions but misinformed ones, or even worse, other peoples, don't make an arguement me old fruit!

    Cheers Will
     
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