Last few weeks sales

[Unshoesual]

I know there's not a lot anyone can say here but just wondering if everyone else is the same...

I went on holiday 4 weeks ago and whilst I was away, sales were down on the same week last year. I chalked that up to me not being here and regulars not coming in or browsers not being drawn into conversation like I would. I got back, sales were down again. September was a lot down on last year (I started trading 2 years ago in December)

I then did a winter launch on Saturday. I did the same thing on a Tuesday last year yet my sales were still down last week (by a good few hundred pounds!) I'm really worried that sales are lacking.

My friend works for a high quality cashmere company (with 2 shops and an online presence) her sales against forecast are down.

Another friend works for a big second hand car dealership, their sales are also down.

I was in our local supermarket yesterday and chatting to the till lady. Their sales for last week were down a lot too.

So, my question is: are the rest of you finding the last few weeks down on last year? September was the first month this year that I've not beaten my sales and it's a bit worrying!

Where are my customers?!!



ps: Sorry for over use of the word 'down' lol.

 

[The Byre]

It ain't just you!

All this talk of green shoots is flying in the face of the real figures and in the face of reality. GDP per capita is falling, not rising. In 2007 GDP per capita in the UK was $36,830. In 2012 it was $35,601. If you then factor in the fall in the value of the dollar of about 12% over that period, you can see that people have experienced a significant fall in their standard of living.

At the same time, costs in the UK have risen significantly, as money is steadily being devalued - food and energy have gone up most.

People are losing their jobs, they are suffering a fall in their standard of living and soon they will start to lose their houses as interest rates rise, as rise they must.

Discretionary spending is the last thing on their minds right now.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

12 months is a huge length of time in business. There's really no point in comparing monthly figures to a whole year ago as the marketplace, the economy and your competitors can change dramatically. It's especially frivolous comparing individual weeks to last year as there will very rarely be a pattern or trend with such short-term ranges. It's like comparing the 8th of October 2012 to the 8th of October 2013 and then getting worried that sales might be less today than they were the same day a year ago.

All you need to do is assess the current health of your business and how your profit is fairing. Stressing over comparisons and getting worried can often end up causing more harm than good. Literally every business has blips and bad periods from time to time and you just have to ride them out to some degree.

However, if you do feel that there's a bit of a downward trend occurring, then you need to look at your marketing. What are you doing to lure potential customers into your store? The same style and type of campaign won't work year-after-year as localised people become desensitised to the same sales message. You may need to try a different angle.

 

[emmylou74]

well after a tough summer - sales for me since start of September have been good, and up from this time last year.

 

[herewegoagain.]

I live week to week, thats all you can do this day and age.... people have NO spare cash - I know I don't !!

I see what I took last Tuesday and do the best I can to drive sales to get the same today !

 

[kelvin1950]

12 months is a huge length of time in business. There's really no point in comparing monthly figures to a whole year ago as the marketplace, the economy and your competitors can change dramatically. It's especially frivolous comparing individual weeks to last year as there will very rarely be a pattern or trend with such short-term ranges. It's like comparing the 8th of October 2012 to the 8th of October 2013 and then getting worried that sales might be less today than they were the same day a year ago.

All you need to do is assess the current health of your business and how your profit is fairing.

I don't agree at all. Comparing this year to last year is how you're going to start understanding the current health of the business. As for calling such comparisons frivolous..................

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

I don't agree at all. Comparing this year to last year is how you're going to start understanding the current health of the business. As for calling such comparisons frivolous..................

It has nothing to do with the current health of the business. Note the word "current".

The economy is far, far too volatile, with markets fluctuating wildly. Sometimes, despite your best efforts and best marketing, you could be performing less well than the same time last year but actually be in a comparatively strong position compared to the current state of the market.

You can look into these particular statistics and factor them in, but to rely on them too heavily is ultimately fruitless and causes more stress than it's worth. The OP could be doing very well in the current state of the market, but then notices that sales are down on the same month last year and then starts pulling their hair out despite the fact that there's ultimately little they could do.

It really doesn't paint the full picture, and 12 months is often too long for a small business in like-for-like comparisons. If any comparison should be made, it's tracking week-by-week sales as they happen to spot a possible downward trend which is relevant to the current situation they're in.

The past is the past, and to get too caught up in it can be more of a hindrance than a help. Losing sleep over comparing sales between now and an entire year ago really doesn't achieve much. There are a lot more pressing numbers to be concerned with, and if they are okay, then the business owner can relax somewhat.

 

[David1962]

Scott-Copywriter:-

Sorry but you are sooooo wrong. If you are working from your spare room or garden shed then tracking sales/clients year on year may not be so important as you have no overheads.

B&M retailers have massive overheads they have no control over that increase annually. The ONLY way to monitor how you are doing, and what the present and future hold, is to have specif sales targets that have to met, these will be based on past years takings/overheads combined with current and future changes in overheads. And they will fluctuate and equate to previous years weekly, let alone monthly (barring special events such a Royal Weddings, bad weather etc which shops will note and factor in to next years targets) so simply cannot be ignored.

High Street retailers simply can't ignore past figures compared with todays takings. Only foolish retailers would see years of declining sales and say "oh well we scraped through this year, it's just the current economic climate, figures crossed it'll be better next week/month/year".

Retailers have set points when they can sell up/close up, these are often five years or more apart and to take the breaks in leases need to be decided upon a year (as you will be giving six months notice to take the break) before the break is due or a new lease is signed. So you are not thinking about today, you have to be constantly looking at the trend in takings and how they look like they are going to effect next year and the year/years beyond.

Keep in mind also that many retailers will be committing to seasonal stock up to a year in advance, so once again comparing today's takings to previous years is essential.

The key to retailing is not knowing when to get in, but when to get out. And there is only one way to take a educated guess at when that is!

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

Scott-Copywriter:-

Sorry but you are sooooo wrong. If you are working from your spare room or garden shed then tracking sales/clients year on year may not be so important as you have no overheads.

B&M retailers have massive overheads they have no control over that increase annually. The ONLY way to monitor how you are doing, and what the present and future hold, is to have specif sales targets that have to met, these will be based on past years takings/overheads combined with current and future changes in overheads. And they will fluctuate and equate to previous years weekly, let alone monthly (barring special events such a Royal Weddings, bad weather etc which shops will note and factor in to next years targets) so simply cannot be ignored.

High Street retailers simply can't ignore past figures compared with todays takings. Only foolish retailers would see years of declining sales and say "oh well we scraped through this year, it's just the current economic climate, figures crossed it'll be better next week/month/year".

Retailers have set points when they can sell up/close up, these are often five years or more apart and to take the breaks in leases need to be decided upon a year (as you will be giving six months notice to take the break) before the break is due or a new lease is signed. So you are not thinking about today, you have to be constantly looking at the trend in takings and how they look like they are going to effect next year and the year/years beyond.

Keep in mind also that many retailers will be committing to seasonal stock up to a year in advance, so once again comparing today's takings to previous years is essential.

The key to retailing is not knowing when to get in, but when to get out. And there is only one way to take a educated guess at when that is!

I agree with some points but not with others.

You do not have to ignore such stats, but to rely on them and get stressed over them is pointless as there are FAR more important business figures which will tell you the health of your current business.

What you're doing here is bringing up a whole host of other stats which we haven't even mentioned. No, the retailer certainly shouldn't be "scraping through", but that has nothing to do with how many sales they're making now compared to 12 months ago. A much more pertinent statistic will be their profit level or percentage of net spend at the moment.

You can also have sales targets, but again this isn't as simple as how many sales now versus 12 months ago. Sure, they can be factored in, but there are far more important numbers.

I don't understand the argument about overheads. To find out your overheads you look at your current business expenditure. How much you were paying last year is irrelevant in this case. Sure, they can be used to help plan future sales targets, but it doesn't sound like the OP has forecasted a sales target here. It just sounds like sales are down this week compared to the same week last year, which, on it's own, is a rather meaningless statistic which isn't worth losing sleep over. Beating sales compared to the year before is certainly positive, but it isn't the be all and end all.

The economy is volatile, suppliers alter prices, suppliers open and close, competitors change prices, competitors open and close. There's far too much which could happen in a 12 month period which means that this idea of beating the sales of the same week last year holds any gravitas on its own.

I'm just of the opinion that people shouldn't build up stress or worry over figures which don't warrant such concern. I would advise that the OP checks the health of their current business and pull in a lot more numbers to figure out if they should be worried. This includes CURRENT turnover, expenses, profit, stock, cash and so on.

Remember, turnover is vanity, profit is sanity, but cash is king. Focus your concern on these figures instead of solely getting into a rut by comparing week-by-week sales from 12 months ago.

 

[David1962]

So come January or February when retailers are committing to £10,000's of Christmas stock how do they decide what they should buy? On the trend over past years or the hope of what this year might bring?

When a break is coming in the lease in 12 months time, how do they decide if they should take it or not? Or a odd good/bad week/month at the moment or trends over the past three or more years?

You quote the old "turnover is vanity...." that is true if not cliched, but in retail there are very few ways to cut the major overheads to maintain the "cash is king" and turnover HAS to been tracked as it relates to sales and footfall.

 

[kelvin1950]

It has nothing to do with the current health of the business. Note the word "current".

The economy is far, far too volatile, with markets fluctuating wildly. Sometimes, despite your best efforts and best marketing, you could be performing less well than the same time last year but actually be in a comparatively strong position compared to the current state of the market.

You can look into these particular statistics and factor them in, but to rely on them too heavily is ultimately fruitless and causes more stress than it's worth. The OP could be doing very well in the current state of the market, but then notices that sales are down on the same month last year and then starts pulling their hair out despite the fact that there's ultimately little they could do.

It really doesn't paint the full picture, and 12 months is often too long for a small business in like-for-like comparisons. If any comparison should be made, it's tracking week-by-week sales as they happen to spot a possible downward trend which is relevant to the current situation they're in.

The past is the past, and to get too caught up in it can be more of a hindrance than a help. Losing sleep over comparing sales between now and an entire year ago really doesn't achieve much. There are a lot more pressing numbers to be concerned with, and if they are okay, then the business owner can relax somewhat.

I trust that your copywriting is better than your financial acumen.

Do you understand the seasonality of some retailers? Obviously not.

 

[kelvin1950]

Remember, turnover is vanity, profit is sanity, but cash is king. Focus your concern on these figures instead of solely getting into a rut by comparing week-by-week sales from 12 months ago.

*Sigh*

I do hope your copywriting isn't as cliched as the above.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

So come January or February when retailers are committing to £10,000's of Christmas stock how do they decide what they should buy? On the trend over past years or the hope of what this year might bring?

When a break is coming in the lease in 12 months time, how do they decide if they should take it or not? Or a odd good/bad week/month at the moment or trends over the past three or more years?

You quote the old "turnover is vanity...." that is true if not cliched, but in retail there are very few ways to cut the major overheads to maintain the "cash is king" and turnover HAS to been tracked as it relates to sales and footfall.

That has nothing to do with this really. Let's stick to this particular situation, shall we?

The OP is worried that their sales this week are lower than their sales this week last year. Of course year by year sales can be useful and play a ROLE in the larger picture. However, in this case, such a statistic on its own is meaningless and should not be a sole cause for stress and worry. There are simply far too many other factors which are more important. They would need to be measured first.

To be honest, if anyone can tell the health and financial situation of a business by year on year sales comparisons alone then they're either a business genius or psychic.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

I don't want this to descend into an irrelevant argument so, unshoesual, what I'm suggesting is the following:

1). Don't get caught up too much over weekly sales comparisons from a year ago. This is for your own benefit as there's no point in getting stressed and losing sleep over something which, on its own, isn't necessarily something to be too concerned about.

2). I've worked with a lot of businesses and weekly sales can fluctuate hugely. Sometimes they can suddenly drop during a period of time and then suddenly end up much higher than usual. If you do want to compare sales annually, look at it monthly so the figures are a bit more evened out. Again, this is just to ensure that you don't lose sleep over something which may not warrant concern.

3). Look at your profit, cash flow and other important factors to assess how things are really going. It will give you a far better picture of your overall business health.

4). Looking to improve sales is always a good thing, so there's no harm using this as a trigger to shake up your marketing.

 

[David1962]

Or you can take advice from retailers.

 

[Doodle-Noodle]

It must be a real worry for you Unshoesual - but sometimes it helps to put a customer head on instead of a retailer.
You're comparing this September with Sept 2012 - from a statistical point of view that may be perfectly sensible, but last September came on the back of a totally non-existent summer when the sandals we bought went unworn and we just needed winter shoes all year round so had to replace old shoes more frequently and cheer ourselves up.
This year, we actually had a SUMMER - unbelievable, but true. As a result we are not in such a hurry to rush out and buy winter boots, I'm still seeing people wearing sandals/flip flops etc in OCTOBER (practically unheard of!).
Look at your stock, make sure it looks fantastic, keep your eye on latest trends (which I'm sure you already do) and make sure your window display is absolutely stunning. The weather is about to change and people will be back and buying at the level you expect before you know it.
Weather does play a part in B&M retail whatever you sell: really hot & sunny days, people don't want to come out and shop, they want to sit in their gardens, really rainy days, they don't want to come out and shop, they want to sit in their sofa and keep dry. Light drizzle seems to be best for us!

 

[mhall]

For us, we monitor our footfall first and foremost, followed by customer spend. If we are getting less people in the shop but our turnover is steady, we can rest assured that the staff are doing their job and the customer is happy as the spend is up. We can then get to work on trying to get more people in the shop.

If the spend is down, then the staff need training or what we are offering is not what the customer wants. If the footfall is down, then our marketing is looked at bearing in mind the wider issues - from the weather up - there could be a myriad of reasons and its important to us that we keep careful records of weather, events and competition offers so we are not making snap judgements. (thank you Sainsburys for training me on the "Day Book" over 30 years ago).

The roller coaster of Retail means we will still get it wrong - quite often - but we can only plan for what we hope and work towards it.

77 Sleeps 'till Santa !!!

 

[warnie]

We also compare turnover year on year as well with a nod to any price increases we've made. It's only if we are down that particular week/month that I start to look into a bit of what Scott is saying.

It's a good guide for us as our figures are pretty stable week in week out. It's also a great idea from mhall about logging any particular unusual weather patterns or any big events alongside your figures.

As for the original question, well thankfully we are up easily on last year but we also have introduced, and are continuing to introduce new lines and ideas into the shop. So with that in mind it would be a little worrying if we weren't .

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

For us, we monitor our footfall first and foremost, followed by customer spend. If we are getting less people in the shop but our turnover is steady, we can rest assured that the staff are doing their job and the customer is happy as the spend is up. We can then get to work on trying to get more people in the shop.

If the spend is down, then the staff need training or what we are offering is not what the customer wants. If the footfall is down, then our marketing is looked at bearing in mind the wider issues - from the weather up - there could be a myriad of reasons and its important to us that we keep careful records of weather, events and competition offers so we are not making snap judgements. (thank you Sainsburys for training me on the "Day Book" over 30 years ago).

The roller coaster of Retail means we will still get it wrong - quite often - but we can only plan for what we hope and work towards it.

77 Sleeps 'till Santa !!!

Great advice. There are far more pertinent figures which not only paint a much more realistic and transparent picture of the situation, but also basically tell you exactly what is wrong and exactly what you need to do to fix it.

In Mhall's example here, sales could be down, but lower footfall and lower footfall-to-sales conversions are two VERY different causes which require two different remedies. However, such careful tracking means that they can instantly zone in on the root cause and do something about it.

It's this extra mile type of stuff which makes retailers much more resilient. There's a good reason why all of the big supermarkets and brand stores go into extensive detail with this sort of tracking and small retailers can easily do it themselves on a smaller scale.

 

[Talay]

...To be honest, if anyone can tell the health and financial situation of a business by year on year sales comparisons alone then they're either a business genius or psychic.

I don't even need sales comparisons in some industries. It isn't always rocket science. The fact that often we can do little or nothing about it is the key.

Presumably business owners know their own industry and have a tight finger on their whole cost base, as well as other parameters, so the unknown inputs are things like footfall and sales figures. All other data is already computed.

I'm not suggest we all take up trend analysis as a new hobby but most folk who don't data mine or are too lazy or stupid to do so.

 

[groovyjon]

I always compare sales to the same week last year - it's one of many reports I view to get an overall view of the business.

I also compare a rolling 8 week average with the same period last year which helps to smooth out any peaks/troughs.

 

[Mayor]

I always compare sales to the same week last year - it's one of many reports I view to get an overall view of the business.

I also compare a rolling 8 week average with the same period last year which helps to smooth out any peaks/troughs.

So do we. Once you iron out oddities like extreme weather, school holidays etc you can get a good idea of trends. We are up 15% this year, because we have put Christmas stock out early. As much as it grates to copy the supermarkets, we are getting in early shoppers for Christmas, that would not come back in a month or two - they want to shop, and they want to shop NOW !

Being in retail is a stinker for ruining the excitement of Christmas at home.

 

[Doodle-Noodle]

So do we. Once you iron out oddities like extreme weather, school holidays etc you can get a good idea of trends. We are up 15% this year, because we have put Christmas stock out early. As much as it grates to copy the supermarkets, we are getting in early shoppers for Christmas, that would not come back in a month or two - they want to shop, and they want to shop NOW !

Being in retail is a stinker for ruining the excitement of Christmas at home.

I just can't and WON'T do Christmas in my shop before November. I even posted on our FaceBook page that we wouldn't be doing Christmas until November.

We do have lots of lovely gifts in stock all through the year and we've just taken on a completely new line in handmade bath products which are really nice and already selling well - lots of people are buying the gift sets already for Christmas, but we're not pushing it as a Christmas line.
Verbally people are very approving of our stance, but I suspect we are really not acting in a business like manner.

Our Christmas tree will not go up until November 1st (I'd like it to go up after Remembrance Sunday really) and our crafters will be allowed to bring their Christmas stock in ready for sale from 1st November too.

We've always done it this way so I can't know whether we would sell the same amount over a longer period of time, or whether we are losing money in sales by not doing Christmas earlier. I may have very costly principles!

 

[warnie]

Some of our Christmas stock is already out. We've got people coming in putting money on their Christmas club cards we've given them, and are constantly asking what were doing this Christmas so they can place orders. We almost feel under pressure to put stuff/ideas on the shelves as this is what they want.

I agree with Doodles though, that it's not what I'd ideally want to do, but to satisfy our customers we have to do it.