Kier Starmer stepping down

[Data Swami]

So if water companies are not spending and are just making huge dividend payments, how do you explain record investment levels by water companies?

Has that actually been spent or just what Ofwat have stated the budget is? Considering they have a reputation of underspending I would trust their statements on investment as far as i can throw them. mind you a fifth of the budget is for environmental clean up something they have directly contributed to via their dumping. And add on they want to pass on even more of their costs to fix the debt status on to customers. And they want the record investment fully funded by increased prices.

 

[Data Swami]

Which most governments dont do. They just spend even more.

Lol you get examples of real world impact of keynesian economics and come back with that . Most governments dont spend spend spend as we have seen them continue to move with the neoliberal economic process where they cut cut cut. There would be no need to spend more while the good times are going as the economic outcomes would already be working well.

No, you keep saying it's companies that pay VAT. All they do is pass on the VAT paid by consumers.

I said businesses are the collection point for HMRC which is why it shows as mostly coming from big orgs. I also said we as consumers pay but we dont register with HMRC for them to track and collect it from us.

 

[DontAsk]

Same kind of logic that says private schools should pay VAT.

I'm not going to discuss whether they should or should not but when it happened the effect on private school roles was nothing like the 25% drop (I seem to recall) that was predicted. Private school pupils did not move en-masse and become a burden on the state sector. Private schools didn't close in any great numbers due to VAT.

Conversely I don't believe scrapping VAT altogether would have the massive positive effect on the economy some here seem to think. Consumers are used to paying the VAT inclusive price and the full VAT cut will not be passed on. Companies will simply increase their profits and pay higher dividends.

The cut in VAT for summer entertainment has had little effect from what I read.

 

[NickGrogan]

Has that actually been spent or just what Ofwat have stated the budget is? Considering they have a reputation of underspending I would trust their statements on investment as far as i can throw them. mind you a fifth of the budget is for environmental clean up something they have directly contributed to via their dumping. And add on they want to pass on even more of their costs to fix the debt status on to customers. And they want the record investment fully funded by increased prices.

Figures from the Government

 

[Data Swami]

I'm not going to discuss whether they should or should not but when it happened the effect on private school roles was nothing like the 25% drop (I seem to recall) that was predicted. Private school pupils did not move en-masse and become a burden on the state sector. Private schools didn't close in any great numbers due to VAT.

Conversely I don't believe scrapping VAT altogether would have the massive positive effect on the economy some here seem to think. Consumers are used to paying the VAT inclusive price and the full VAT cut will not be passed on. Companies will simply increase their profits and pay higher dividends.

The cut in VAT for summer entertainment has had little effect from what I read.

Never said it was a silver bullet and would reap massive positive effects . However 105 schools have closed since VAT was introduced. Around 30k have moved from private to public and even there some would probably have moved to "cheaper" independents. But the private school sector will always prop itself up with kids from abroad. Like Repton etc and they just pass the cost on.

Figures from the Government

So the OFWAT number?

 

[NickGrogan]

Lol you get examples of real world impact of keynesian economics and come back with that

Oz is in a recession right now, the other examples where from 70/80 years ago. Wow thats great.

All we need a world war, bomb all our competitors to nothing, then print money and create jobs as we have no competition for the products we make. Great plan.

 

[NickGrogan]

So the OFWAT number?

Given that every one of your posts is based on government figures, its a bit much to start disbelieving them when they dont support your ideas.

 

[Data Swami]

Oz is in a recession right now, the other examples where from 70/80 years ago. Wow thats great.

All we need a world war, bomb all our competitors to nothing, then print money and create jobs as we have no competition for the products we make. Great plan.

Well ye they didnt continue with Keynesian economic policy they did it once and prevented a recession when every other country entered a recession in the financial crash. Ye they are from a long time ago as before i said since the 70s neo liberal economics has been peddled and embedded.

I dont understand why the antagonism to an economic system away from neoliberal economics that has been proven to work while our current policies focused on balancing the books is causing more inequality and more recessions and more cuts and just a worse time.

Given that every one of your posts is based on government figures, its a bit much to start disbelieving them when they dont support your ideas.

Lol so because im a proponent for Keynesian economics I cant question whether you are using what OFWAT have said is the budget vs what the water companies have actually actually put forward right now?? Its ok to say you dont know or that you dont have the source. Its precious really XD

 

[Newchodge]

So if water companies are not spending and are just making huge dividend payments, how do you explain record investment levels by water companies?

Simple. The record low levels of investment to date.

 

[Newchodge]

No, you keep saying it's companies that pay VAT. All they do is pass on the VAT paid by consumers.

HMRC receives payment of VAT from businesses only, not from any individual consumer. So the HMRC figures show payments made by businesses. Is that so hard to understand?

 

[NickGrogan]

they did it once and prevented a recession when every other country entered a recession in the financial crash.

So your entire idea is based on something that worked once, in a different country, under hugely different circumstances and has never been used again, and you are aware that those circumstances do not apply to this country at all at present?

Have you actually read what Keynes wrote?

 

[Data Swami]

So your entire idea is based on something that worked once, in a different country, under hugely different circumstances and has never been used again, and you are aware that those circumstances do not apply to this country at all at present?

Have you actually read what Keynes wrote?

gave you many countries it has actually worked under varying different circumstances and I have studied and continue to study economics which is why i call out neoliberal economics and how it has caused many of the problems in our economy right now. There is a reason by hundreds of economists signed that letter to try and prevent Austerity measures and what they stated came to pass with a longer recession and decades of poorer outcomes. There are significant circumstances where keynesian economics will make an impact. Our economy has barely grown its stagnated due to neoliberal economic policy and many bottom up approach keynesian policy will help to boost aggregate demand especially consumption side of the economy. Just because you cant comprehend an economy which isnt centred around some imaginary balancing of the books doesnt mean its not a viable economic policy especially since its been proven in different countries and also helped create one of the strongest economies in the world too.

And yes i have read keynes' work and analysed its impact and its theory applied to economics across many aspects of micro, macro, labour economics and much more.

 

[DontAsk]

Never said it was a silver bullet and would reap massive positive effects . However 105 schools have closed since VAT was introduced. Around 30k have moved from private to public and even there some would probably have moved to "cheaper" independents.

Look up the Radio 4 "More or Less" episode for the real figures and what they actually mean.

 

[NickGrogan]

also helped create one of the strongest economies in the world too

Which one?

What did Keynes actually say about balancing the books?

 

[Data Swami]

Which one?

What did Keynes actually say about balancing the books?

United States how they got out of the great depression to become a powerhouse

In relation to "balancing the books" he stated trying to balance a national budget every single year was not only foolish but actively destructive to the economy as we have seen

Also he said government is not a household. If a household loses its income, it has to cut spending. But if a gov cuts spending during an economic downturn to "balance the books," it cancels contracts, slashes welfare and other social activities.

As one government spending is another organisations or persons income, the government cutting spending actively removes money from the economy, making a downturn worse, which leads to fewer taxes collected, which leads to a bigger deficit. Creating a vicious cycle as we have seen since the Financial Crashes austerity measures.

 

[NickGrogan]

United States how they got out of the great depression to become a powerhouse

In relation to "balancing the books" he stated trying to balance a national budget every single year was not only foolish but actively destructive to the economy as we have seen

Also he said government is not a household. If a household loses its income, it has to cut spending. But if a gov cuts spending during an economic downturn to "balance the books," it cancels contracts, slashes welfare and other social activities.

As one government spending is another organisations or persons income, the government cutting spending actively removes money from the economy, making a downturn worse, which leads to fewer taxes collected, which leads to a bigger deficit. Creating a vicious cycle as we have seen since the Financial Crashes austerity measures.

Hmm, when did Keynes publish his book and when did the US launch the New Deal?

America thrived after the war, mainly thanks to geography. It wasn't bombed, everything else was. Its easy to grow an economy when you're the only one standing.

You might want to read your Keynes again if you think he said balancing the budget was bad, its a bit more nuanced than that.

"the ordinary Budget should be balanced at all times" - seems clear to me.

 

[Data Swami]

Hmm, when did Keynes publish his book and when did the US launch the New Deal?

America thrived after the war, mainly thanks to geography. It wasn't bombed, everything else was. Its easy to grow an economy when you're the only one standing.

You might want to read your Keynes again if you think he said balancing the budget was bad, its a bit more nuanced than that.

"the ordinary Budget should be balanced at all times" - seems clear to me.

He released many from publications.... He specifically advised roosevelt with an open letter and Roosevelt enacted elements of Keynesian economics with the new deal....

You are misrepresenting what i said trying to balance the national budget every single year is foolish due to economic cycles. I dont need to reread anything

The great depression was caused by the wall street crash. So similar to the global financial crash. They implemented keynesian economics and it helped to claw them out of that and they took advantage of that position with the way they participated in the war. Plus they mostly determine they got out of the great depression before the start of WW2 with the new deal which implemented well before the war started helped them on their way.

Sure its clear to you as you have misrepresented and misunderstood economics as you might want to re read what he means by the ordinary budget and its relationship to aggregate demand and how it reconciles with balancing the cycles not the yearly budget

 

[NickGrogan]

i said trying to balance the national budget every single year is foolish due to economic cycles

Keynes wrote "the ordinary Budget should be balanced at all times"

So you disagree with Keynes? Or you misread it?

Is the UK going through a great depression at the moment?
Is it world war 3?

So what is the justification for what Keynes thought of as emergency measures?

You might try reading some Hayek.

 

[fisicx]

Got my financial advice from Lord Snooty in the Beano.

 

[NickGrogan]

Got my financial advice from Lord Snooty in the Beano.

More accurate that most economists.

 

[Data Swami]

Keynes wrote "the ordinary Budget should be balanced at all times"

So you disagree with Keynes? Or you misread it?

Is the UK going through a great depression at the moment?
Is it world war 3?

So what is the justification for what Keynes thought of as emergency measures?

You might try reading some Hayek.

Again you prove to have not understood what Keynes means by the ordinary budget lol

The UK has continued to stagnate and recess and slightly grow and increase inequality and reduced disposable income and aggregate demand stagnates. The justification is to get out of this part of the stagnant cycle.

Hayek is embedded in Neoliberal economics lol the damn policies that have got us to this point

 

[fisicx]

I asked Lord Snooty about Mr Keynes and he just guffawed. Apparently he is so rich he no longer cares. As long as the peasants keep toiling. Bash Street Kids agree.

 

[fisicx]

As an aside, you can argue financial and political concepts all day long. It’s not going to change how the uk is governed no matter which party is in power.

 

[Data Swami]

As an aside, you can argue financial and political concepts all day long. It’s not going to change how the uk is governed no matter which party is in power.

That was my first comment on all this

 

[NickGrogan]

Again you prove to have not understood what Keynes means by the ordinary budget lol

So perhaps you'll explain it and how you suggested solution stays within what Keynes actually said.

Or do you think saying keynesian is enough and justifies any "plans" you suggest? You are exactly the kind of "economist" that Keynes warned about.

The justification is to get out of this part of the stagnant cycle.

So no immediate emergency then, so again, going against what Keynes wrote, what he warned about, and even your own examples.

 

[Data Swami]

So perhaps you'll explain it and how you suggested solution stays within what Keynes actually said.

Or do you think saying keynesian is enough and justifies any "plans" you suggest? You are exactly the kind of "economist" that Keynes warned about.


So no immediate emergency then, so again, going against what Keynes wrote, what he warned about, and even your own examples.

Well i have explained in clear terms around how it works in relation to the consumption side of the economy and relates to aggregate demand to and how government spending is a catalyst for improving spending in the economy and how neoliberal economics has resulted in reduced consumption etc.

However you haven't provided an actual response or counter other than balance to books and mention Hayek which is part and parcel of neoliberal economics and the cause of what we see right now.

And im the problem now? It always gets to personal attacks XD

So our economic performance has been a good standard since the financial crash and Austerity? So no not what Keynes warned about. Standing still with our economy while the people in this country become poorer and inequality grows i call that an emergency and the free market has not rectified any of the conditions and the economic policies of neoliberal economics have added to stagnation, inequality and just down right worse living standards.

 

[NickGrogan]

And im the problem now? It always gets to personal attacks XD

You've been posting emojis in response to me, and now you're the one being personally attacked?

Maybe read the tone of your own posts first.

I have pointed out the the problem is lack of productivity, not a tax/spend problem, but perhaps you missed that?

Where you posting suggesting higher taxes when the economy was good? No? Is that because you think Keynesian means that the government will spend to save you, which is not what it means, but what it has been corrupted to by the Left.

For those that are interested Keynes said there should be two budgets.

The Current Budget Everyday running costs (civil service salaries, routine maintenance, existing social services). Must always be balanced or in surplus, even during normal times. Keynes explicitly did not support borrowing money to pay for day-to-day state consumption.

The Capital Budget

Long-term investments in productivity (building roads, trains, schools, or housing).

Can be unbalanced during a recession. This is the budget used to inject money into the economy to fight a depression.

 

[Newchodge]

You've been posting emojis in response to me, and now you're the one being personally attacked?

Maybe read the tone of your own posts first.

I have pointed out the the problem is lack of productivity, not a tax/spend problem, but perhaps you missed that?

Where you posting suggesting higher taxes when the economy was good? No? Is that because you think Keynesian means that the government will spend to save you, which is not what it means, but what it has been corrupted to by the Left.

For those that are interested Keynes said there should be two budgets.

The Current Budget Everyday running costs (civil service salaries, routine maintenance, existing social services). Must always be balanced or in surplus, even during normal times. Keynes explicitly did not support borrowing money to pay for day-to-day state consumption.

The Capital Budget

Long-term investments in productivity (building roads, trains, schools, or housing).

Can be unbalanced during a recession. This is the budget used to inject money into the economy to fight a depression.

Could you give the source for that, please?

 

[NickGrogan]

Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes
(CW, XXVII, p. 225).

He argued: "the ordinary Budget should be balanced at all times. It is the capital budget which should fluctuate with the demand for employment"

Various other places throughout his works, but that this the clearest, simplest example.

 

[Data Swami]

You've been posting emojis in response to me, and now you're the one being personally attacked?

Maybe read the tone of your own posts first.

I have pointed out the the problem is lack of productivity, not a tax/spend problem, but perhaps you missed that?

Where you posting suggesting higher taxes when the economy was good? No? Is that because you think Keynesian means that the government will spend to save you, which is not what it means, but what it has been corrupted to by the Left.

For those that are interested Keynes said there should be two budgets.

The Current Budget Everyday running costs (civil service salaries, routine maintenance, existing social services). Must always be balanced or in surplus, even during normal times. Keynes explicitly did not support borrowing money to pay for day-to-day state consumption.

The Capital Budget

Long-term investments in productivity (building roads, trains, schools, or housing).

Can be unbalanced during a recession. This is the budget used to inject money into the economy to fight a depression.

Emojis are a problem now?

Well done you managed to find the dual budget format of aspects of Keynes economics. I'm suggesting changes for our situation right now productivity does not just happen it's a by product of economic measures. However you also stated fiddling with tax too while sticking to a balanced budget.

Neoliberal balancing of the budget is a balance all the time. Keynes does not dictate that with this dual budget. So yes during our down turn we increase spending on projects that increase aggregate demand and when the boom times are happening we don't need such spending and can maintain things and pay it off. We aren't in those boom times. And I never stated Keynes was all about spending you have assumed that some how.

There are significant other factors to our problems too with privatised public goods that add to reduced productivity and consumption in the market that need addressing.

The tone of my posts have been up beat and I accept a debate. You are allowed to joke on the internet but I never stated you were a problem. I debated you in good faith and you've misrepresented much of what I've said and misunderstood that dual budget concept

 

[NickGrogan]

Emojis are a problem now?

Yes

Neoliberal balancing of the budget is a balance all the time. Keynes does not dictate that with this dual budget.

Is the current budget in balance? What did Keynes say about balancing the current budget? Hint, I have already quote him directly.

 

[Data Swami]

Yes


Is the current budget in balance? What did Keynes say about balancing the current budget? Hint, I have already quote him directly.

And why are they a problem for you?

This is getting boring neoliberal economics looks at the whole budget not both.... Tries to balance the both budgets year on year which is a foolish idea as Keynes stated..... And it classifies the economy as a household. You speak to both of the budgets under keynes not just one.

You have no answers really just arguing for the sake of it now

 

[NickGrogan]

And why are they a problem for you?

This is getting boring neoliberal economics looks at the whole budget not both.... Tries to balance the both budgets year on year which is a foolish idea as Keynes stated..... And it classifies the economy as a household. You speak to both of the budgets under keynes not just one.

You have no answers really just arguing for the sake of it now

I'm sure you can work it out.

You might find the debate more interesting if you answered the actual questions, rather than typing neoliberal every few lines. Just a thought.

As for balancing the budget being foolish, Keynes was clear that the current budget should always be in balance and the Capital budge should be pushed back to balance as soon as possible. So you think Keynes was wrong?

As for Hayek not working, you might want to visit Argentina.

 

[Newchodge]

You might find the debate more interesting if you answered the actual questions, r

LOL Pot and kettle, see posts #108 to 116.

 

[Data Swami]

I'm sure you can work it out.

You might find the debate more interesting if you answered the actual questions, rather than typing neoliberal every few lines. Just a thought.

As for balancing the budget being foolish, Keynes was clear that the current budget should always be in balance and the Capital budge should be pushed back to balance as soon as possible. So you think Keynes was wrong?

As for Hayek not working, you might want to visit Argentina.

No please do explain why emojis are a problem for you

I did and you continued to change the question, change the reference, change the framing as it didnt suit the answer you want.

Still doesnt get away from what ive stated about the budget lol he is right and also right about aggregate demand. Its almost like there are many dynamics in economics to balance but a pure focus on just a balanced budget is foolish as he stated it shouldnt be balanced year on year.

 

[Data Swami]

LOL Pot and kettle, see posts #108 to 116.

Dont think LOL is allowed either that might be a problem

 

[NickGrogan]

Dont think LOL is allowed either that might be a problem

Disrespectful and childish.

see posts #108 to 116.

I answered you about the reasons for the delays in infrastructure products, you tried to change it do be about dividends as you were wrong. As you've done in other chats.

a balanced budget is foolish as he stated it shouldnt be balanced year on year.

Source?

Seems a strange thing for Keynes to say as he said exactly the opposite previously.

 

[Data Swami]

Disrespectful and childish.

Source?

Seems a strange thing for Keynes to say as he said exactly the opposite previously.

Disrespectful how? Childish yes try it sometime lifes too short to be serious all the time. But ye how are emojis a problem too?

So obtuse he stated there were 2 budgets for the gov to use and the one to enable improvements to aggregate demand was the capital budget which shouldnt be balanced in times of downturns/economic problems so all together budget of the gov being balanced every year was foolish. That is where neoliberal economcis and the older orthodox economic theory does not agree and where austerity has caused significant issues.

At every point in this chat you have deflected and changed the question and change the point of reference. For what reason im not sure as you havent shown any rebuttal to the issues with neoliberal economics and how its caused significant harm to our economy and trashed the consumption in the market. Well with the exception of talking about productivity which doesnt magically change. But would improve with the use of some keynesian economic policy. There are so many more measures to do aswell around public goods too which ive pointed to aswell.

 

[Newchodge]

I answered you about the reasons for the delays in infrastructure products, you tried to change it do be about dividends as you were wrong. As you've done in other chats.

Evidence? I asked you a simple question. You ignored it completely. You asked about record investments. I answered it.

 

[NickGrogan]

Evidence? I asked you a simple question. You ignored it completely. You asked about record investments. I answered it.

What question? the one where you tried to change the subject?