I'd suggest it's probably not random, it just differs in a way you don't understand.
It's forcing people who can't do SEO to either use Adwords or give up. That's always been the case. All that's happened is that google has raised the bar (again).
For all the sites that fall off page 1, there'll be sites that climb to page 1.
Frankly, I don't see the big problem - other than people complaining because their spam techniques don't work.
Surely real links matter more now. Isn't that more meritorious?
Steve
Can a computer ever truly be random? Probably not unless its quantum but how do we measure that? Anways.. 10x keyworded domains, 10x same content on each site apart from 2 words in the title, header and content being changed, 10x same service with exactly the same links on the same days, same links all approved. 2 were deindexed the rest are page 1.
I also have quite a few sites which have many pages and subdomains following that pattern, only 1 was panda'd the rest are actually doing better now after G's changes.
How about Google running Adsense and showing the best positions for their Ads as being above the fold, and then out of nowhere penalising sites with ads above the fold?
They aren't forcing people who can't do SEO to use Adwords, they are forcing them to give up. They haven't raised the quality bar, they've raised the price bar.
Companies who can afford to scrape the web and send out automated link requests win. Companies who were lucky enough or rich enough to buy keyworded domains win.
The small guy selling stuff on ebay looking to expand now has no chance with SEO unless he is willing to wait months and months for ROI.
A sidebar link, or a footer link, or a "donations page" link, or a guest post on an unrelated blog isn't a raised bar.
This is the problem. OR maybe disappointment. The internet is meant to be a free and flat playground. It's where small guys can take on big guys and win but every change G makes makes the hill harder to climb, with traps and snakes.
Remember Google suggests and instant, that was a prime place for small guys to start. They'd start with low search volume keywords like those but G killed them. It's not just spam which I dont think blog networks are spam btw.
Oh and SPAM techniques are working! a few guest posts + spam profiles, bookmarks and whatever else is working very well. VERY WELL...