Deal with quieter times

[David Haughton]

Has anyone noticed a significant slow down in footfall/sales? We're from a fairly affluent area in North Yorkshire and we came through the recession, but it's still disconcerting.

We've got reps coming in chasing their figures. Since the big distribution/manufacturers we deal with have reduced their staff and increased the area size that the reps have to cover, the reps are covering big areas of the UK and it suggests many areas have slowed. We're a showroom business and have our ups and downs but it would seem the merchants and even the tradesmen are slow.

Summer holidays are notoriously quiet for our industry anyway and i doubt the B word is helping but i do believe the right person can make the most of any situation.

When you get prolonged quiet times, what do you do? Are there signs of really shi**y times to come?

 

[Mr D]

Past 18 years this has been a quiet time of year for us - across multiple sectors.
Currently selling online, mostly ebay and amazon.
2nd half of June and 1st half of July are if taken together one of the lowest time periods in a year. The months themselves are not, the other halves being usually above average.

Past 2 years I have taken the quiet time to get more stock and put it for sale.

I'm expecting a slowdown in overseas sales as we approach end of October, based on what happened as end of March approached.

 

[The Byre]

1. Work to create additional equity for the business. That can be anything from sort out a storeroom to build stuff or write reports.

2. Yes. Many (if not most) observers of the World's economy are beginning to fear the worst. Time to wrap up warm and reduce fixed costs as far as is humanly possible.

 

[WaveJumper]

From a report I was reading in Retail Week last month:

Footfall rates change year-on-year, May 2019 (%)
Greater London -3.5
West Midland -3.7
South East -3.6
South West -6.1
East Midlands -3.9
East -2.6
North and Yorkshire -3.9
Northern Ireland -5.3
Wales -3.2
Scotland -1.9
Weighted UK average -3.5

Commentary for May 2019
The footfall decline steepened sharply in May, with -3.5% the worst since January 2013, excluding Easter distortions. However, this figure belies the true state of UK footfall somewhat as May last year saw extraordinarily good weather, coupled with Harry and Meghan’s wedding and the run-up to the men’s football world cup. All UK regions were in decline in May, with the South West seeing the most severe rate of -6.1%. Scotland saw the shallowest rate of decline, with -1.9%.

High streets suffered the most of all shopping destinations in May, with a decline of -4.8% for the UK overall, and none of the regions seeing any growth. This is a direct consequence of last year’s outstanding weather, as many were driven to visit local shops in search of fans and air conditioning units to cool their homes. Scotland was the least affected region by this, with a decline of only -1.9%. Whereas the South West saw the highest rate of decline of all UK regions, with -6.9%.

Retail Parks escaped relatively unscathed in May, with a decline of only -0.8% some way shallower than the other destinations. However, of all the regions, only three made it into growth. The best performing of which was the East, with 5.8% growth. The steepest decline in the UK was seen in the South West with -5.6%.

Shopping centre footfall returned to the same sort of level seen recently, with a decline of -3.6%, the worst since December. All but one region saw falling footfall, namely the West Midlands that saw growth of 1.3%. The East Midlands saw the steepest decline for the shopping destination with a decline of -7.4%.

 

[Darren_Ssc]

Has anyone noticed a significant slow down in footfall/sales? We're from a fairly affluent area in North Yorkshire and we came through the recession, but it's still disconcerting.

A friend of mine in Harrogate put off building an extension earlier this year because of brexit uncertainty.
She and her partner are both medical professionals with zero chance of becoming unemployed btw.

The real problem with this kind of thinking though isn't that big decisions are deferred, it can lead to people deciding they can actually do without.

 

[estwig]

Summer is always very slow for me, I could up my adwords spend, proportionally earning less for more work than I do in the winter months. Or I could play more tennis, take my cub scouts camping and spend time with the Granddaughters.

It's a tough life!

 

[ecommerce84]

We are most certainly heading into a recession, I’m not sure if we ever really came out of the last one and have actually just been kicking the can down the road ever since.

I couldn’t tell you exactly when it will happen though. It kind of feels like it already is happening.

Brexit is no doubt affecting things, but a recession will hit most western economies anyway.

 

[billybob99]

I wake up later and go to bed earlier.

 

[Mark T Jones]

There is always someone predicting a recession - and ultimately they will prove themselves right. (Indeed, the prediction of a recession might well be its cause)

It’s my turn now. Uncertainty over Brexit is definitely impacting on larger capital investments - though discretionary spend on bars and restaurants is largely static - this caution will almost certainly lead to a minor recession in the foreseeable future (we might already be in it in real terms)

That said, your own business stands alone. Take part in recessions or don’t its your choice

 

[The Byre]

Take part in recessions or don’t its your choice

This!

Recessions are there so that -

1. Weak companies get weeded out and killed off!
2. Healthy companies fine-tune their processes and adapt to new conditions.
3. Start-ups get a toe-hold with lower investment.
4. Outdated skills are made redundant.
5. Large companies trim peripheral activities and focus on their core profit centers.

So if there is a recession, embrace it and use it as a golden opportunity to take advantage of change and as a wonderful chance to gather equity at others' expense who were less prudent.

 

[Mr D]

There is always someone predicting a recession - and ultimately they will prove themselves right. (Indeed, the prediction of a recession might well be its cause)

It’s my turn now. Uncertainty over Brexit is definitely impacting on larger capital investments - though discretionary spend on bars and restaurants is largely static - this caution will almost certainly lead to a minor recession in the foreseeable future (we might already be in it in real terms)

That said, your own business stands alone. Take part in recessions or don’t its your choice

True.
We run businesses, we don't run the economy.
Just because the economy is good or bad, a recession or no recession does not mean our businesses have to follow what the economy does.
Every time there is a figure for a region, for the country etc look at it. But do not copy it.

May have to be more inventive to get sales, may have to try multiple methods of selling.
And in any bad times it may well be some of the competition cease trading. Potentially grab some of those customers...

 

[Pish_Pash]

We are most certainly heading into a recession, I’m not sure if we ever really came out of the last one and have actually just been kicking the can down the road ever since.

^^ +1 to this

I remember the good old days when Governments stood well back & let a recession take its course (& despite what Gordon Brown once famously said, it's a necessary part of the cycle), but now no leader wants a recession on their watch ....permanently low interest rates anyone? (indeed interest rate policy is actually going to bite them in the backside, because we rates were never normalised, so there's no buffer there nowadays)

 

[tony84]

I expected this year to be bad but we are up (or were last time I checked), we noticed a massive slow down the 3 weeks leading up to Brexit in March/April time, the fact it has been delayed until October is probably a good thing for us. It tends to die down in November so if we can stay busyish until October then it will be quiet during our quiet period which is not really the end of the world, the only downside is that it will probably kick in a month earlier.

Hopefully we will have seen its effects by Feb/March time when it tends to pick up.

On a side note, try getting a tradesman around here. I want my driveway doing, I have had 5 people round, 3 have let us down and vanished (can only assume they have bigger jobs) and the other 2 want are quoting about 35-40% more than the other 3.

There are signs a recession is on the way, but there are recessions and recessions. It cant possibly be anything like 2007/08 again...we hope.

 

[Mr D]

^^ +1 to this

I remember the good old days when Governments stood well back & let a recession take its course (& despite what Gordon Brown once famously said, it's a necessary part of the cycle), but now no leader wants a recession on their watch ....permanently low interest rates anyone? (indeed interest rate policy is actually going to bite them in the backside, because we rates were never normalised, so there's no buffer there nowadays)

Governments still stand back and let recession take its course, merely adjusting spending plans and borrowing to match expected income.
What government spending tends to do is have an impact later. In terms of jobs on the ground, equipment built, stuff delivered etc it can be 2 to 5 years to see an impact. And its a minor impact.

If we enter a recession and next budget the chancellor says he's cutting VAT to 10% and reducing fuel duty by 30p a litre and a whole host of other direct changes then you'd have in theory a lot more for your money.
Cannot see any chancellor doing that, problematic as it is.

 

[Mr D]

I expected this year to be bad but we are up (or were last time I checked), we noticed a massive slow down the 3 weeks leading up to Brexit in March/April time, the fact it has been delayed until October is probably a good thing for us. It tends to die down in November so if we can stay busyish until October then it will be quiet during our quiet period which is not really the end of the world, the only downside is that it will probably kick in a month earlier.

Hopefully we will have seen its effects by Feb/March time when it tends to pick up.

On a side note, try getting a tradesman around here. I want my driveway doing, I have had 5 people round, 3 have let us down and vanished (can only assume they have bigger jobs) and the other 2 want are quoting about 35-40% more than the other 3.

There are signs a recession is on the way, but there are recessions and recessions. It cant possibly be anything like 2007/08 again...we hope.

Could be worse than 2007/08.
Brexit, once it happens, is an unknown for us.

 

[glengraving]

On a side note, try getting a tradesman around here. I want my driveway doing, I have had 5 people round, 3 have let us down and vanished and the other 2 want are quoting about 35-40% more than the other 3.

sounds like you've found the going rate for someone reliable

 

[simon field]

This!

Before I even scrolled down, I knew that 'this' was thee.

Rock on. You bring a massive amount to this forum young man!

To echo the above. yeah, get busy in times of sloth.

For every cottage industry upwards - when competitors go tits up in a recession, or are just a pain in the arse to deal with there are usually at least a half a dozen potential customers / suppliers who need stuff.

Give it to them, good & proper, or someone else will!

 

[MBE2017]

I simply work harder to do more deals.

I used to get a lot of stick from market traders for having targets for daily and weekly profit at my various markets, they all told me it was impossible to generate extra sales, and if there was a bad storm nothing could be done.

Many of my best days were their worst, I just worked much harder at selling.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

Recessions are all caused by politicians.

Having always been in a relatively small field I have been able to watch what my rivals are doing in quiet times. My best tactic was to spend the time preparing for the next busy time. Re-decorate my studio, shoot for my portfolio, design my next xmas card and print it, test new equipment and techniques etc etc.

The last thing is to waste time trying to get new clients. You will just be joining the queue of others doing the same.