Complete Lockdown

[Discountbannerprinting.co.uk]

Would more business be forced to shut down if this is true (even ones crucial in the supply chain of essential companies such as food, drink, cleaning products and pharmaceuticals)?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8162053/The-crackdown-tougher.html

 

[The Byre]

To have any effect on the infection rate, you must have a total Wuhan-style lockdown and hold it in place for at least 60 days. That is because C19 infects four times as many each and every week. Without a lockdown total infections (and deaths about four weeks later) therefore increase about six-fold every week.

The time-line for after a total Wuhan-style lockdown is -

• Day 1 - Lockdown.
• 14 days after lockdown there is a noticeable effect on registered new cases.
• 28 days later the death-rates stop rising.
• 28-42 days after total lockdown death rates remain roughly constant.
• 42 days onwards death rates fall steadily.

We do not yet know what happens long-term after lockdown is lifted.

 

[Discountbannerprinting.co.uk]

Yes I understand but will he do a full one like that or like France (in France I think companies can still trade and people can go to work still if they cannot work from home?)

 

[Mr D]

To do a full lockdown would require everyone to stay at home.
Brutal and would kill many. But would stop the virus spreading beyond immediate confines until such time as lockdown relaxed.

The various partial lockdowns (including current one) means a few million people working.
More risks but less suffering and less painful ways to die.

 

[fisicx]

And then you have to deal with a new wave of infections once the lockdown is lifted.

 

[adam thompson1981]

He's trying to avoid a full lockdown to keep the economy running. Of course a tighter lockdown pushes down the infections but they are trying to find a balance between keeping the infection rates low enough to deal with whilst keeping the country running to some extent.

 

[MOIC]

We do not yet know what happens long-term after lockdown is lifted.

This

 

[Mr D]

He's trying to avoid a full lockdown to keep the economy running. Of course a tighter lockdown pushes down the infections but they are trying to find a balance between keeping the infection rates low enough to deal with whilst keeping the country running to some extent.

It may well be that after a relaxation the imposing it again they'll instead start gradually relaxing lockdown.

 

[Mr D]

And then you have to deal with a new wave of infections once the lockdown is lifted.

Boom and bust cycle.
With weeks at a time in each one.

While virus does spread it does have the advantage of a lower peak than doing nothing.

 

[DontAsk]

in France I think companies can still trade and people can go to work still if they cannot work from home?

Correct. My French distributor is still going into his business premises and fulfilling on-line orders. He had a customer turn up who should not have been out and about and who got angry when refused entry.

 

[MikeJ]

To have any effect on the infection rate, you must have a total Wuhan-style lockdown and hold it in place for at least 60 days.

Surely the lockdown we have now will have an effect on the infection rate. It won't stop it completely, but it will significantly reduce it.

 

[fisicx]

Surely the lockdown we have now will have an effect on the infection rate. It won't stop it completely, but it will significantly reduce it.

Correct. Until it is lifted. And then there could easily be a second wave as all those who hadn’t been infected now become infected.

 

[MBE2017]

I have no idea if it is true, but many dispute the Chinese figures, on twitter several have mentioned millions of mobile phones are no longer active in China.

Europe now has 1-2000 dying per day, the USA is likely to follow along similar lines in two weeks.

The so called lockdown is only a voluntary version in the UK, I just had two guys collecting rubbish from a nearby house which has been done up recently. Two hours of listening to them coughing and wheezing, not exactly an essential job.

 

[The Byre]

Surely the lockdown we have now will have an effect on the infection rate. It won't stop it completely, but it will significantly reduce it.

Let me know when that lockdown happens.

"Be a good boy and don't cough on your granny!" is hardly a lockdown.

 

[Mr D]

I have no idea if it is true, but many dispute the Chinese figures, on twitter several have mentioned millions of mobile phones are no longer active in China.

Europe now has 1-2000 dying per day, the USA is likely to follow along similar lines in two weeks.

The so called lockdown is only a voluntary version in the UK, I just had two guys collecting rubbish from a nearby house which has been done up recently. Two hours of listening to them coughing and wheezing, not exactly an essential job.

How essential is rubbish collection?

Can it wait 3 months? How about 3 weeks?

If council won't take / cannot take then people start stockpiling rubbish for 6 months? Or just burn it?

 

[Mr D]

Let me know when that lockdown happens.

"Be a good boy and don't cough on your granny!" is hardly a lockdown.

Its partial so far. Others want a different partial.
Millions have to work, some are refusing to work or good reason not to work.
Anyone living with vulnerable people may well choose to also isolate or temporarily stay elsewhere.

Picked up 2 bags of flour for my dad today while shopping, will post it to him so he has edible bread later in the week.
None in his area and he can't break isolation to drive around hunting in other towns for it. I can while shopping for other goods.

 

[MikeJ]

Pubs, restaurants, schools and colleges shut. Public parks closed. People being stopped in the street and being asked why they're out. That's going to have an effect on the infection rate. Anyone that doesn't think so is an idiot.

 

[MBE2017]

Pubs, restaurants, schools and colleges shut. Public parks closed. People being stopped in the street and being asked why they're out. That's going to have an effect on the infection rate. Anyone that doesn't think so is an idiot.

It obviously will help reduce infection rates, but way to many people are ignoring the Gov instructions. This will allow the virus to keep spreading, albeit at a slower rate.

 

[Mr D]

It obviously will help reduce infection rates, but way to many people are ignoring the Gov instructions. This will allow the virus to keep spreading, albeit at a slower rate.

It will spread within groups - typically households plus the odd leaker from people near other people, virus on surfaces etc.

So should, in a couple of weeks, start seeing slowdown in transmission.
May take a while to get significant figures though (change in rate of infections rather than no infections) - some of those who become ill won't become ill enough to be tested perhaps for several days after falling ill.

Trouble is - what happens in a few weeks, does government then remove restrictions? And will that then cause a surge in people becoming ill a week or two later?

We aren't at peak infections yet. Easter is I believe the estimated time for that.