Cafe Capacity

[IndiCafe]

If there are any cafe owners out there, could you possibly tell me if I'm any where near reality with my assumptions for seated customers?

I'm planning approx 35 seats in a tourist hub high street.

Assumptions:
- Each seated customer will stay approx 40 mins
- During peak tourist season I'll run at 30% capacity during 8am-11pm
- During peak tourist season I'll run at 90% capacity during 11am-3pm
- During peak tourist season I'll run at 25% capacity during 3am-6pm
- Average buy will be two items e.g. coffee and sandwich/light meal/cake

So for example, in the 60 minutes from 12pm and 1pm (peak time) I will get the following number of customers:
35 seats x 90% capacity x (60/40) minutes = 47 customers

I hope this is clear!

 

[arcon5]

During peak times, at 90% full thats 31 customers. All you need is for 2 couples to come in and sit at a 4 seat table to make these numbers impossible.

But I suppose to counter this, I think 40minutes is probably on the generous side. 20 minutes average would be fair. 25-30minutes to be safe. Also depends on the type of seats though - people are more likely to stay longer if on a sofa than on a wooden chair pulled up to a round table.

Also -- from 8AM I imagine 5-10% to be more accurate depending on your menu. I imagine tourists would start flocking in from 10-11AM onwards..?

 

[KidsBeeHappy]

Even in peak time there are high's and lows. So, for 11-3 you'll not have 4 peak hours. What you'll probably have is an early lunchtime rush, a quiet bit, a second lunchtime rush, it will all go quiet between about 1.35 and then pick up again about half 2.

 

[IndiCafe]

30 mins per seat would be great, and would make my hourly capacity 70 seats, which is a huge difference to my financial projections.

Thanks for your input

 

[KidsBeeHappy]

There is a concept in seat design called "35 minute comfort". Basically, after more than half an hour you just ain't comfortable, you finish your food and leave. Bet you've never sat in McDonalds for 40 minutes.

 

[arcon5]

30 mins per seat would be great, and would make my hourly capacity 70 seats, which is a huge difference to my financial projections.

Thanks for your input

No it wouldn't. Your not always going to get the optimum amount of people around each table. If I go in to a restaurant with my Girlfriend I always look for a 4 person table for the extra room for example. You will get the same. Or somebody on their own on a table using a Laptop.

You need to consider table numbers also.

 

[IndiCafe]

Even in peak time there are high's and lows. So, for 11-3 you'll not have 4 peak hours. What you'll probably have is an early lunchtime rush, a quiet bit, a second lunchtime rush, it will all go quiet between about 1.35 and then pick up again about half 2.

Thanks. Yeah, that's why I estimated being 90% full, to allow for highs/lows during the 4 hour period. Would be good to know if, based on other owners' experience, that's a fair percentage, or whether in reality a cafe would only be perhaps 50% full even during peak time.

 

[KidsBeeHappy]

Yep, and between 1.45-2.20 i'd say you'd be lucky to have 10 people in.

(Based on Seaside cafe experience - cup of tea, burger, teacake, icecream type stuff)

 

[IndiCafe]

No it wouldn't. Your not always going to get the optimum amount of people around each table. If I go in to a restaurant with my Girlfriend I always look for a 4 person table for the extra room for example. You will get the same. Or somebody on their own on a table using a Laptop.

You need to consider table numbers also.

Absolutely agree What I'm saying is that the maximum capacity would be 70 per hour (35 seats, 30 mins per seat) ... not that I think I'd use that maximum capacity fully. Hence my assumption of running at 90% of maximum capacity. But considering the possibility of couples taking up 4 seat areas (my design should help minimise this problem) and other drain on space, maybe I should change it to 75% of maximum capacity. That would be 70 x 75% = 52 customers per hour

So is it realistic to say that a cafe with 35 seats would get approx 50 customers per hour at peak time?

 

[IndiCafe]

Yep, and between 1.45-2.20 i'd say you'd be lucky to have 10 people in.

(Based on Seaside cafe experience - cup of tea, burger, teacake, icecream type stuff)

Really? As few as 10 people, at 2pm in a tourist hub in a high street in peak tourist season? I'd be amazed if I had that few... bankrupt too!

 

[Esk247]

erm have you planned this properly?

I used to work in a cafe and trust me..we went from 11am until 12.30 with nobody in at all..not a jot...this being in summer and at one of the busiest tourist towns on the Yorkshire coast.

Busiest times were in the morning at 10-11 with the morning breakfast/early birds coming in and then the lunch time rush between 12.30 and 2pm then a break with nothing happening then the 3.30 kids/after school rush, parents coming in with some of the little ones for a few hours. Dead again at around 5pm.

 

[KidsBeeHappy]

At 5pm everyone goes home for tea. That's how it is with tourists.

 

[Esk247]

At 5pm everyone goes home for tea. That's how it is with tourists.

which is why at 4.30 you're cafe is dead. So you don't get 9am til 5pm selling time, you get something like 10am til 4pm to sell your products, with large gaps between to do your washing up and prep any food for the next people that come in.

 

[IndiCafe]

erm have you planned this properly?

I used to work in a cafe and trust me..we went from 11am until 12.30 with nobody in at all..not a jot...this being in summer and at one of the busiest tourist towns on the Yorkshire coast.

Busiest times were in the morning at 10-11 with the morning breakfast/early birds coming in and then the lunch time rush between 12.30 and 2pm then a break with nothing happening then the 3.30 kids/after school rush, parents coming in with some of the little ones for a few hours. Dead again at around 5pm.

I'm researching it now, hence my question I'll be conducting on-site footfall/competitor analysis soon but want benefit from forumers' experience too.
So can I ask, were your target customers tourists? I would have thought the window for tourists to plonk themselves in a cosy cafe for a mid-day break would be longer than 90 minutes. Maybe you were in a location that made your customers more likely to be people taking a lunch break from work?
These replies are very surprising

 

[Esk247]

We targetted both tourists and locals. The cafe had evening events for the locals which were quite popular.

You won't get 90% capacity all the time, you'd be lucky to get 50% capacity.

At the cafe I worked in the majority of people were purchasing a Latte and a sticky bun or cake. Less than a fiver per customer.

We only ever had 100% capacity on Saturdays, 75% capacity on Sundays (roughly).

It's peaks and troughs with cafes. You can have 2 hours of dead then an hour of frantic rushing around shoving bacon in the grill, microwaving something, getting the sticky buns out, knocking coffee over yourself and dropping plates.

 

[KidsBeeHappy]

Don't forget Tourists = Children. Children = parents sitting/staying for just about long enough to drink a cup of coffee.

Ask any parent of young children how often they actually get to finish a cup of coffee.

 

[IndiCafe]

Thanks. Very useful info. I'll modify my percentages.

The thing I was expecting was that in my chosen location, from May to Sept every day is almost like a Sat/Sun, as the town swells to over 10 times its usual population, and the unit would be in the pedestrianised high street centre of the town. That would, if the expectations were valid, help push up my % of max capacity.

 

[IndiCafe]

Don't forget Tourists = Children. Children = parents sitting/staying for just about long enough to drink a cup of coffee.

Ask any parent of young children how often they actually get to finish a cup of coffee.

I'm not sure about that sandiep. The type of tourist depends on the destination and activities there. My market is dominated by 40-65 year olds rather than families - although I do take your point.

 

[KidsBeeHappy]

Is the premises currently a cafe?

If yes, why is it up for sale?

Very high footfall areas can be bad for cafes. Very high footfall = people moving between one place and another. Which means that they're on their way somewhere to do something. You're talking about people have 30-40mins to sit in a cafe, they don't tend to this if they're on their way somewhere, only if they're at the place that they're going to.

If that makes sense.

 

[Drpepper]

Is the premises currently a cafe?

If yes, why is it up for sale?

Very high footfall areas can be bad for cafes. Very high footfall = people moving between one place and another. Which means that they're on their way somewhere to do something. You're talking about people have 30-40mins to sit in a cafe, they don't tend to this if they're on their way somewhere, only if they're at the place that they're going to.

If that makes sense.

I'll disagree with that, high footfall in a town centre is because people are there to shop, not just passing through, even more so in a pedestrianised area.

 

[KidsBeeHappy]

But high footfall between a town centre and a car park........
I have a friend who bought a cafe in the spot in the high street in Ayr with the highest footfall of the whole town. But it just didn't work as a cafe site because it was on the way in or out, everyone either with bursting wallets, or bulging bads. She had other hotels, cafes, decades of catering/hospitality experience, and couldn't make it work. And now the cafe changes hands at least once a year.

(but see your point noticed in the post position is in centre)

 

[IndiCafe]

I'm not at the stage where I'm looking at a specific property yet. Like I say, I'm doing my research/due diligence to ensure that the business would work on paper.

If I found premises that were previously run as a cafe then for sure I would ask the same question that you asked... as it rings alarm bells. But there are cafes and there are cafes. I'm not talking about opening a greasy spoon cafe, but rather making an investment of over 100k in startup costs to build a concept that is already proven elsewhere but is lacking in my chosen area. Clearly I need to ensure demand first though.

I can see your point regarding people being on their way somewhere, but I believe high footfall is critical to the success of my cafe. I used to work for a Property Management company and footfall was an essential driver for retailer tenants. Like I say, my location is a pedestrianised tourist hub and the reason the tourists are there is to enjoy looking around, and in my experience that includes a bit of cafe culture. I hope, anyway!!

 

[KidsBeeHappy]

I wish you lots of luck. It is a business that I really enjoyed. But just be aware of just how much trade can plummet out of season in tourist areas - but the season is changing, here in Scotland it's officially just been extended 1 month to End of October (even mid November) from end of September. We've got Harry Potter to thank for that one.

One thing is very very clear though when it comes to tourism in the UK. The ones that do it very well are getting busier, and the ones that do it poorly are going out of business. There is less and less middle ground.

 

[kulture]

I'm not at the stage where I'm looking at a specific property yet. Like I say, I'm doing my research/due diligence to ensure that the business would work on paper.

Unfortunately paper and reality do not always coincide. Most new start up cafes loose money in their first year as they adjust their menu/offering to build up a loyal customer base, as well as enticing in passing traffic.

There is always a balance between locations. High footfall locations tend to come with expensive leases and high rates/rent. You could end up working flat out just to make ends meet. Whereas a property around the corner may have half the footfall and half the costs and be much easier to make a decent profit.

 

[Esk247]

Oh and remember to KISS. as in..Keep It Simple Stupid.

Just because you offer hot soup with bagels and a jammy dodger for less than a fiver doesn't mean that anyone will buy it..then you've got bags of jammy dodgers and bagels going mouldy in your fridges/freezers.

Also don't make the usual mistake of 'Oh im easily going to sell 100 of those in a week 'cos everyone will buy that' .. they won't..they might not like what you like, so you won't sell 100, you'll sell 10.

Peoples shopping behaviours are very odd when you try and analyse them.

 

[vvaannmmaann]

Don't forget the codgers who will sit for two hours with their pot of tea.And then make you feel guilty when they ask for more hot water as the pot has gone cold.

 

[KidsBeeHappy]

Peoples shopping behaviours are very odd when you try and analyse them.

I know a cafe that takes a lyons swiss roll, cuts it up into three, and wraps each bit in clingfilm and sells them for 50p.

They sell a ton. And have sold exactly the same thing in exactly the same way for at least 40 years.

 

[KidsBeeHappy]

Don't forget the codgers who will sit for two hours with their pot of tea.And then make you feel guilty when they ask for more hot water as the pot has gone cold.

Don't talk about me like that!!

 

[Richie N]

You can't really go on these assumptions.
No day is ever the same.
Breakfast, you are looking at more 9am to 10am. Most prefer take away on the way to work.
Lunch times get busy from 12.30 until about 2.30pm. Usually quiet after this time unless you have business customers or tourists having coffees etc.
Depends on the location, customers you have and many other factors.

 

[IndiCafe]

Thanks Richie. As each day is different what approach do you take to forecasting?

 

[Richie N]

Thanks Richie. As each day is different what approach do you take to forecasting?

Forecasting can depend on what's going on in the local area.

We thought November would be busy but it's not been as busy as we thought, most of our customers have told us they have been taking lunch in to save money for xmas.
September was quiet considering August was busy, as our landlord decided to put up scaffolding up to redecorate the outside of the building (even though this could have been done before we opened), so it's really hard to say. Anything like this can have a major impact on your sales.
We have only been open 6 months and it's definitely harder than you think. Another issue we had was water, they decided to relay the new pipes in the street and although they gave us warning for 3 days, they actually had it turned it off another day, resulting in more loss sales.

It's a hard business to crack and every day situations can have a knock on effect. Yesterday the electricity went in the street during lunchtime lol

We've not had the easiest of times with it tbh....

 

[IndiCafe]

Hope it picks up Richie. Looks like a good place judging from your website.

 

[kulture]

I do not see how you can do any real forecasting without knowing your location. For example, if you are near a bus station, your busy time might be before 8am, or if the bus station is a destination for commuters, then between 8:30 and 8:55.
Location and targeted trade will tend to determine your opening hours. Then knowing how many hours to cover will help towards staff levels.

At the moment, at best, all you can do is play with numbers.

 

[Richie N]

Hope it picks up Richie. Looks like a good place judging from your website.

Yeah business is picking up thanks.
We get good reviews about the food etc
Good luck with your venture.

 

[IndiCafe]

I do not see how you can do any real forecasting without knowing your location. For example, if you are near a bus station, your busy time might be before 8am, or if the bus station is a destination for commuters, then between 8:30 and 8:55.
Location and targeted trade will tend to determine your opening hours. Then knowing how many hours to cover will help towards staff levels.

At the moment, at best, all you can do is play with numbers.

All I'm doing is preparing a plan based upon assumptions, which is good business practice. It would be a bit silly of me to only start doing my financial plan after I've signed a lease on the premises. Obviously the plan needs to be revised as the business progresses and some factors, such as exact details of premises, are realised. But just because all factors are not knows, doesn't mean a forecast/financial plan has no value. There's a lot to be said for playing with numbers!

 

[Richie N]

I do not see how you can do any real forecasting without knowing your location. For example, if you are near a bus station, your busy time might be before 8am, or if the bus station is a destination for commuters, then between 8:30 and 8:55.
Location and targeted trade will tend to determine your opening hours. Then knowing how many hours to cover will help towards staff levels.

At the moment, at best, all you can do is play with numbers.

Of course you can forecast but circumstances can have a major effect on this, as it has happened to us.
Also, we had a bus depot opposite our restaurant, buses stopped there whilst they were relaying water pipes, now they have finished, they just use it as a stand for the drivers.

 

[IndiCafe]

I'm getting the impression that planning/forecasting is deemed a bit pointless, judging from some of these comments. Personally I can't imagine starting a business without a good plan.

 

[Richie N]

I'm getting the impression that planning/forecasting is deemed a bit pointless, judging from some of these comments. Personally I can't imagine starting a business without a good plan.

You will need to do a business plan and forecasting for sure, especially if you need to raise any finances with the bank.
Also, even without the need of the bank it's good to have a goal to work towards. It motivates the staff to work to a turnover amount per day/week etc.
Work it on average spend per head x amount of customers you expect to get.

 

[KidsBeeHappy]

Watch out for January/February with cafes. They get hit doublefold. Firstly from the New Years Diet, that puts a big dent in the impulse eating/treats type of business. And secondly from the packed lunches etc- one of the first things to cut back on when the post Christmas credit card bill arrives. And if your in a tourist area then this will be compounded by low visitors/bad weather etc.

There is a reason that many cafe owners take their annual holidays in January.

 

[IndiCafe]

Thanks. That is how I'm arriving at my gross sales forecast. Good to know it's what others do too.
I did an MBA a few years back, was an accountant, and have been a business consultant for many years now, so the framework is not a problem. I spent two years full time in a restaurant a long time ago, so I know what to expect. My main need is to learn the ins and outs of the cafe business.
I suppose what I should really do is get myself on one of the many training courses in starting up a cafe business. For the sake of a few hundred quid I could get all my business assumptions and expectations checked out.
Thanks again.