@The Byre will no doubt be along soon will the details but we could easily see inflation into double figures. I saw one report estimating 17%.
Ha! Ha! (Woosh - and here I am!)
It's not just one thing or another, we have a perfect combination of a series of black-swan events, combined with the return of the debt cycle that last visited us in 1930 - well, it was actually 1920-30. First euphoria and spend, spend, spend. Then came the crash!
The Chinese government has just told its people to stock up on food and panic ensued - the people were reminded of the great famine of 1959-61. Add to that their housing bubble that is about to deflate one way or another and the record floods and warnings of a particularly cold winter. Chinese companies are defaulting on their debts like never before.
Official US inflation (CPI) is now over 6%. The real figure is (using the 1990 method of calculation) is 10% and if we use the method from 1980, 15%. Here, the government is pretending that we are only at 3%.
(Governments depress inflation figures by automatically altering the CPI basket of goods and services in accordance with people's purchasing preferences - conveniently ignoring the somewhat obvious fact that people alter their purchasing preferences as a reaction to rising prices! Houses and flats get smaller, the Sunday beef roast is replaced by the Sunday chicken and manufacturers have to replace one grade of steel with a cheaper grade - and so on.)
Everywhere productivity is either flat-lining or falling and costs are escalating. UK farming costs are increasing by 22% p.a. and UK manufacturing production costs are increasing at 13.5% p.a.
Everywhere we look, governments and central banks are behaving with levels of incompetence and mendacity that is breathtaking. The current US government is throwing more QE gasoline onto the inflation fire with their multi-trillion-dollar spending bill, the head and his deputy of the Bundesbank in Germany both resigned in disgust at the behaviour of the ECB and its refusal to limit the money supply.
And here we had a Chancellor of the Exchequer stand on his hind legs and deliver a budget for over an hour without mentioning any of the above - he even pretended that the UK has just had record growth when the UK has yet to reach the same level of prosperity as in 2007. And all thanks to gross economic mismanagement.
Here is a stark warning to everyone - the shortages and price increases are not because of C19 or Brexit or any supply-chain hiccoughs, but because systems everywhere are breaking down. And when they break down, the shops are empty and some people go hungry.
And hungry people are dangerous!
If I were to go in for motivational speaking, I would open with what I listed so far and then tell my audience that this represents
the largest opportunity for those who are switched on that we have ever seen. Ever!
The next five years will decide if you want to succeed like never before - or join the starving masses.
Yes, I fear for the fate of those without my resources. If you are of moderate means and living in a town or city, you may end up getting wiped out by inflation and/or civil unrest. And if you are poor and infirm, I just hope that you can somehow survive the coming five years or so.
But if you are young and resourceful - or just resourceful - golden opportunities await!
I doubt that there has been a time in history to compare with this moment right now to make hay and get busy!
The old saying in show business is "Be ready when the Man calls!"
Well, the man is calling right now! In fact, he's shouting his head off! The Man has made all the stars align in your favour like never before!
The opportunities are anything and everything that is real. Commodities like gold, silver, copper are far too cheap and in short supply. At the beginning of this year, I said here that oil would be $100 a barrel before the year is over; it may even go over that. Land and clean water will always be in demand and there are two companies that dominate the world's water movement market and when the sell-off starts, their shares will go down with everybody else's.
Fiat money is dying. Pounds, dollars, Euros - all just fugazi! Pixi dust! That pension you have been saving for may easily turn out to become worthless. As long as that fiction is maintained, you can buy real things - especially land.
Grow food on that land. Learn those skills that turn land, machines and Diesel into food. You'll probably enjoy doing this and you may end up needing those skills! And develop networks with others that are doing the same in your area. Even if money survives, you are better for doing this!
Used car prices? You should try farm machinery! Someone offered me £8,000 for my 50-year-old tractor - I paid £3,000 for it 15 years ago! I was talking to a man who had to pay 90% of the cost of a new tractor for a tractor that was 20 years old!
