Track & trace

[jpjj]

It wasn't an opinion piece, why do you and others keep saying that, it was an "Analysis" piece.

I have only seen what you have posted and what others have said in response. Please post a link to the article, or failing that mention who the author is, and the data and source that they quoted in the article.

More to the point, have you got that link to those figures you quoted ?

I have posted it before. As it turns out you, can't open spreadsheet files, I guess you didn't read it that time. Can you manage to download a free office suite like libreoffice?

 

[Justin Smith]

We appear to have the possibility of a new problem with this T&T dagger held over us all.
For reasons linked to the launch of Elon Musks's Starlink over here there is a good chance our turnover is going to go up in a big way, in fact it already has started doing so. The problem is that our present anti T&T strategy* will not work if we get busier. If you put that together with the fact my staff want more hours anyway there is next to no chance any of us will be setting ourselves up to get caught on T&T particularly as we have all been vaccinated anyway. And this story will be repeating itself all over the UK, rest assured of that. I do not know what planet the Govt are on thinking we are going to be testing ourselves at all, much less twice week....
And this is why T&T can never work, even the Germans have found that with their much vaunted T&T system that so many were stating was "the game changer" to ending suppression only last year. T&T is one massive waste of money.

* (of one member of staff only working one day a week every other week and doing so on his own on that day)

 

[MarkOnline]

We appear to have the possibility of a new problem with this T&T dagger held over us all.
For reasons linked to the launch of Elon Musks's Starlink over here there is a good chance our turnover is going to go up in a big way, in fact it already has started doing so. The problem is that our present anti T&T strategy* will not work if we get busier. If you put that together with the fact my staff want more hours anyway there is next to no chance any of us will be setting ourselves up to get caught on T&T particularly as we have all been vaccinated anyway. And this story will be repeating itself all over the UK, rest assured of that. I do not know what planet the Govt are on thinking we are going to be testing ourselves at all, much less twice week....
And this is why T&T can never work, even the Germans have found that with their much vaunted T&T system that so many were stating was "the game changer" to ending suppression only last year. T&T is one massive waste of money.

* (of one member of staff only working one day a week every other week and doing so on his own on that day)

Just give me the word, Im ready to march provided we remain within the law and don't use it as an excuse to act unlawfully. I had to wear a mask today when I went for my appointment at the hospital. Blatant breach of my human rights. Keep up the fight brother!

 

[MikeJ]

Blatant breach of my human rights.

 

[Justin Smith]

Just give me the word, Im ready to march provided we remain within the law and don't use it as an excuse to act unlawfully. I had to wear a mask today when I went for my appointment at the hospital. Blatant breach of my human rights. Keep up the fight brother!

I wanted to go down to London on Saturday but It was too far from Sheff. Interestingly I went into Sheff to see if anything was going on and there was a regular bunch protesting against lockdown near the Peace Gdns, but I did not feel comfortable with them. Most were anti-vaxxers and one even had HOAX at the top of his sign. I pointed out to him that if they wanted to influence people against this suppression (for which there is a rational argument to scrap at this stage) they should get rid of that for a start, most people will just think they're a bunch of David Icke loonies and walk on.
More positively the centre of Sheff was unbelievably busy I could not believe it considering most of the shops were closed. Most of the take always were doing a good trade though !

 

[Interestedobserver]

Dp

 

[Justin Smith]

Many of us have said the "Test & Trace" is a waste of money and will never work, certainly not well enough to justify it's eye watering cost. Even the Germans have found it doesn't work.
As we have said it's even less likely to work now that the vaccine means the chances of killing Granny are very slight indeed. People simply are not going to volunteer for a test then self isolate for one to two weeks. It's not just about the money, as Labour seem to think, people just do not want to do it. I have said this on here more than once and was roundly condemned for it I seem to remember. The fact the govt have been planning ultra mass testing, all adults to test themselves regularly, just proves the people in charge are living on a different planet.

But now we have absolute proof :
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56598217
Covid-19: Few people with symptoms are self-isolating, study finds
Fewer than one in five people request a Covid-19 test if they have symptoms, while the number who follow full self-isolation rules is low, a large study of the test and trace system has found.

Scrap test and trace, in fact scrap mass testing full stop because, particularly now the link between infection and death has been broken (because of the vaccine), it is a waste of Billions.

 

[Interestedobserver]

"that the vaccine means the chances of killing Granny"

Justin do you realise how much of a xxxxhead you come across like when you say this?

I actually feel sorry for you that you place so little value on family

 

[Justin Smith]

"that the vaccine means the chances of killing Granny"
Justin do you realise how much of a xxxxhead you come across like when you say this?
I actually feel sorry for you that you place so little value on family

Why have you said this ?
I am simply pointing out that the chances of one's Granny dying of Covid are now very small indeed, far smaller, in fact, than her dying of something else. And that is why people are not motivated to self isolate.
What is wrong with me saying that ?
It is a positive, revel in it.

 

[Interestedobserver]

Why have you said this ?
I am simply pointing out that the chances of one's Granny dying of Covid are now very small indeed, far smaller, in fact, than her dying of something else. And that is why people are not motivated to self isolate.
What is wrong with me saying that ?
It is a positive, revel in it.

As I suspected you have no idea how it comes across. It's such a flippant comment to make

Like I say I feel sorry for you.

 

[Justin Smith]

As I suspected you have no idea how it comes across. It's such a flippant comment to make
Like I say I feel sorry for you.

It comes across negatively to those who want to regard me negatively. Why you should want to do that when I am trying to be positive and optimistic in the face of a tidal wave of negativity, pessimism and scaremongering, I do not know.
But enough of that, this thread is supposed to be about test and trace.
Surely the confirmation that less than 1 in 5 bothered to get tested even if they have Covid symptoms proves that test and trace is a waste of time and money, surely ?
What is more Labour's idea to pay people to self isolate, will not significantly improve things either. Let me give you a real world example. If one child in my lad's school gets tested positive the whole year has to stay at home for 2 weeks. Thus I would not want the other parents to get their kids tested, and I suspect very strongly most other parents will think the same.

 

[Ozzy]

If one child in my lad's school gets tested positive the whole year has to stay at home for 2 weeks.

Just want to clarify something here, coming from a school governor. If one child tests positive it is only the child's immediate class that is sent home to isolate for 1 week and the teacher.
A check needs to be done by the SLT if the child came into close contact with anyone else, and they will be sent home too, but the whole year does not need to be sent home.

 

[Justin Smith]

Just want to clarify something here, coming from a school governor. If one child tests positive it is only the child's immediate class that is sent home to isolate for 1 week and the teacher.
A check needs to be done by the SLT if the child came into close contact with anyone else, and they will be sent home too, but the whole year does not need to be sent home.

At my lad's school so there are only two classes per year, so AFAIK the year is counted as a bubble.
But I would be interested to know your opinion as a governor on the fact most parents actually would not want other parents to get their kids tested. I had a chat in the park to a couple of Mum's on Tues and was surprised at how angry they were that their kids had not had any education for most of the last year, and the effect on their mental health and their kids' mental health, most people do not admit to that kind of stuff except to close friends. But home schooling a recalcitrant child is exceptionally draining...... One was someone I thought of as being more in favour of suppression but she actually swore, I was genuinely shocked as she is not like that normally, though I know exactly how she feels.

 

[simon field]

As I suspected you have no idea how it comes across. It's such a flippant comment to make

Like I say I feel sorry for you.

No need to be so patronising - you’re at it again aren’t you.

That particular phrase was coined by none other than YOUR health secretary, along with the other three word scare-slogans! Are you still singing happy birthday twice whilst washing your hands? I sincerely hope so..

You have a short/selective memory.

 

[Jeff FV]

Different schools are operating differently, with variations across age ranges, size of school etc.

For example, in a primary school a class will probably have all their lessons together so that class will have to isolate if one student tests positive.

In secondary (11+) schools, students will have different lessons with different peers and in some schools the whole year group is treated as a bubble - i.e, if a student from, say, year 9 tests positive all of year 9 must isolate.

Other schools (such as mine) with big year groups (circa 250+ per year group) have the year group sub-divided into bubbles - largely based on where they can go/social interactions outside of the classroom - and if a student tests positive, only their bubble must isolate, plus anyone they have been within 2 metres of for a period of time (15 mins I think without checking) so classroom seating plans will be checked. (Pupils sit with their bubble in the lesson, but, by necessity, "bubble edges" may be less than 2m apart in a lesson.)

It is not a one-size fits all system, as schools are not one size.

Most parents, and most students, want students to be in school, and schools are working incredibly hard to make that happen, whilst keeping them safe for their students and staff. I just hope that, ultimately, this translates into a greater respect for schools and teachers who may have come to realise that little johnny may not be the angel that they think they are!

 

[Justin Smith]

Most parents, and most students, want students to be in school, and schools are working incredibly hard to make that happen, whilst keeping them safe for their students and staff. I just hope that, ultimately, this translates into a greater respect for schools and teachers who may have come to realise that little johnny may not be the angel that they think they are!

TBH I think most parents know what their kids are like ! We are constantly surprised at parents evenings (remember them....) when the teachers say "oh he's no particular problem, no worse then most other kids....". I'm pretty certain that most kids behave better for their teachers than their own parents, which is not to denigrate the teachers, it's their skill and authority to get the kids to do as they're told. Though they do have a big advantage, kids know their parents love them and they're very good at playing on it
Most teachers will have had increased respect from all this, it's the teachers unions who will have less. They tried repeatedly to put back the date for the kids to go back to school, then they insist that secondary pupils wear masks when there was little justification for it, and they're still trying to get the mask mandate extended when there is absolutely no justification for it now.

 

[alan1302]

Many of us have said the "Test & Trace" is a waste of money and will never work, certainly not well enough to justify it's eye watering cost. Even the Germans have found it doesn't work.

What about countries where it does work like Taiwan, South Korea, New Zealand, Iceland?

 

[Justin Smith]

What about countries where it does work like Taiwan, South Korea, New Zealand, Iceland?

None of those countries are comparable with us.
New Zealand are perhaps the closest in terms of outlook on life, but their strategy (of vigorous quarantine from early on which worked for them due to their geographical isolation) means they are in an entirely different situation to us. The population are far more motivated to co operate with T&T and far fewer of them have to do it Also their vaccine roll out is very slow, about 1% of the population, so again, their population is much more motivated for T&T and self isolation, and so it should be as they have far more to lose. For our population it is completely different, they know that (A) pretty much all the vulnerable have been vaccinated, and (B) we should arguably be out of suppression now anyway, the opposite to NZ in both respects.

 

[alan1302]

None of those countries are comparable with us.
New Zealand are perhaps the closest in terms of outlook on life, but their strategy (of vigorous quarantine from early on which worked for them due to their geographical isolation) means they are in an entirely different situation to us. The population are far more motivated to co operate with T&T and far fewer of them have to do it Also their vaccine roll out is very slow, about 1% of the population, so again, their population is much more motivated for T&T and self isolation, and so it should be as they have far more to lose. For our population it is completely different, they know that (A) pretty much all the vulnerable have been vaccinated, and (B) we should arguably be out of suppression now anyway, the opposite to NZ in both respects.

You've not said why it can't work here in the UK.

 

[Justin Smith]

You've not said why it [test & trace] can't work here in the UK.

1 - People do not want to spend up to 2 weeks in their house. That's a given, so people have to be very motivated to do that, even if they are paid to do so, unless it is an obscene amount of money
2 - People are even less likely to want to self isolate if they only have a 1 in 50 (or whatever) chance of having Covid because they have, apparently, been in contact with someone infected.
3 - Because of the vaccine people know them spreading Covid is very unlikely to kill anyone, so they do not even have the altruistic motivation for self isolating.
4 - Even being tested, an essential starting point of T&T is becoming less used. I was speaking to someone who went for a test and it was empty. If I knew I'd be told to self isolate, and possibly shut my business because my staff (having been in contact with me) would also have to self isolate, quite simply I would not take a test. And my staff have also said the same thing. None of it is necessary anyway, because we have all had the vaccine.

For all these reasons T&T is a complete waste of money and can never work, even the Germans cannot get it to work. It has never been "a game changer".

 

[alan1302]

It has never been "a game changer".

I disagree:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56412790

It has been shown to work properly and a 'game changer'.

The Germans can't get their vaccinations rolled out properly...or build a national airport on time...not sure why you mention them!

 

[Justin Smith]

I disagree:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56412790

It has been shown to work properly and a 'game changer'.

The Germans can't get their vaccinations rolled out properly...or build a national airport on time...not sure why you mention them!

You forgot to mention this sentence :

Iceland is a remote island in the North Atlantic, with just one international airport. And yes, it is home to fewer than half a million people.

 

[Scalloway]

If only the UK was an island then we would have been able to close our borders and keep the virus out.

 

[Interestedobserver]

If only the UK was an island then we would have been able to close our borders and keep the virus out.

Lol we still could but the amount of complaints we would get from the usual suspects would be even more than we get now

I guess we would open the borders for vaccine deliveries though?

 

[Scalloway]

Any place that has closed their borders still allows goods to move in and out.

 

[Interestedobserver]

Wrong thread

 

[MikeJ]

Any place that has closed their borders still allows goods to move in and out.

Places that have closed their borders don't have RoRo Ferries coming in daily. Are you suggesting we cancel the 5000 trucks that come across the Channel each day?

 

[Scalloway]

Although the traffic is nothing like the scale of Dover all the UK islands with RoRo ferries have managed to avoid Covid being introduced by a trucker or ferry crew.

 

[Justin Smith]

If only the UK was an island then we would have been able to close our borders and keep the virus out.

I thought the Isle Of Man attempted to go for zero Covid, but failed.
Fortunately, due to the fantastically effective vaccines, rolled out at an unbelievable rate, we do not have to worry anyway, it's sorted, provided we accept a death rate the same, or below, that of flu.

 

[Scalloway]

The Isle of Man got pretty close to zero covid according to this article. In early January they had four new cases – all of them involving people in self-isolation who’d come back from Britain. This was followed by a ‘circuit breaker’ hard lockdown for three weeks. The result is the island is open for locals as if nothing is happening.

https://www.hotpress.com/culture/how-the-isle-of-man-beat-covid-19-22843121

 

[alan1302]

You forgot to mention this sentence :

Iceland is a remote island in the North Atlantic, with just one international airport. And yes, it is home to fewer than half a million people.

South Korea is getting it to work and the have a population of nearly 52 million people...

 

[Interestedobserver]

The Isle of Man got pretty close to zero covid according to this article. In early January they had four new cases – all of them involving people in self-isolation who’d come back from Britain. This was followed by a ‘circuit breaker’ hard lockdown for three weeks. The result is the island is open for locals as if nothing is happening.

https://www.hotpress.com/culture/how-the-isle-of-man-beat-covid-19-22843121

You kind of highlight the major problem of going for zero covid though don't you in that post?

Any of these places that aim for it as soon as they get even 2 or 3 cases have to do strict lockdowns out of nowhere

Lol - and you then talk about a lockdown as a "circuit breaker" when really it's just another lockdown

And you can't then pretend in your words like "the island is open for locals as if nothing is happening"

You can't plan anything short or long term in those places as they have to be so re-active to the tiniest outbreaks

A circuit breaker is no different to lockdown Scalloway

It might sound nicer but it's the same thing

And they will need to repeat and repeat any time they get a couple of cases

 

[Justin Smith]

The Isle of Man got pretty close to zero covid according to this article. In early January they had four new cases – all of them involving people in self-isolation who’d come back from Britain. This was followed by a ‘circuit breaker’ hard lockdown for three weeks. The result is the island is open for locals as if nothing is happening.
https://www.hotpress.com/culture/how-the-isle-of-man-beat-covid-19-22843121

But they had a surge of cases and had to lockdown again. It is completely inaccurate to imply they were back to normal, or anywhere like it.

 

[Justin Smith]

You kind of highlight the major problem of going for zero covid though don't you in that post?
Any of these places that aim for it as soon as they get even 2 or 3 cases have to do strict lockdowns out of nowhere
Lol - and you then talk about a lockdown as a "circuit breaker" when really it's just another lockdown
And you can't then pretend in your words like "the island is open for locals as if nothing is happening"
You can't plan anything short or long term in those places as they have to be so re-active to the tiniest outbreaks
A circuit breaker is no different to lockdown Scalloway
It might sound nicer but it's the same thing
And they will need to repeat and repeat any time they get a couple of cases

I cannot believe I just agreed with one of IO's posts. The world really is going mad.

 

[Interestedobserver]

But they had a surge of cases and had to lockdown again. It is completely inaccurate to imply they were back to normal, or anywhere like it.

It's like the Sweden thread all over again

We have myths about everywhere else being ok

Nowhere has beaten Covid and not had to lockdown

Nowhere

They just all lockdown in different ways and at different stages

But they ALL lockdown at some stage

Just the Isle of Man not letting people in etc is in perpetual lockdown and heavily impacted regardless what else they have to do anyway

As it is an island that relies heavily on tourism

 

[Interestedobserver]

I cannot believe I just agreed with one of IO's posts. The world really is going mad.

Eventually you will agree with all of my posts!

Lol

The truth always rises to the top Justin!

 

[Interestedobserver]

But they had a surge of cases and had to lockdown again. It is completely inaccurate to imply they were back to normal, or anywhere like it.

Not even a surge Justin

Just 2 or 3 cases creates panic and lockdown in these places

And we are all realistic enough to know that these 2 or 3 cases will always find a way of getting in somehow

It's happened a lot in Australia

 

[Justin Smith]

Not even a surge Justin
Just 2 or 3 cases creates panic and lockdown in these places
And we are all realistic enough to know that these 2 or 3 cases will always find a way of getting in somehow

It's happened a lot in Australia

I don't know where you get your figures, the IofM had 108 cases on the 8th March.

 

[John Hemming]

Nowhere has beaten Covid and not had to lockdown

To express that more accurately. The UK has not beaten Covid, but has locked down.

Australia and New Zealand have had relatively few deaths and have locked down, but also closed their borders.

Otherwise countries have generally suffered from this virus.

 

[Interestedobserver]

I don't know where you get your figures, the IofM had 108 cases on the 8th March.

Check my post. I was talking in general about the places that go for zero Covid and how few cases they need to have to lockdown fast

Brisbane lockdown: Australian city to shut down over seven cases

Auckland, New Zealand, Under Lockdown After 3 Covid-19 Coronavirus Cases Emerge