Was Sweden right after all ?

[jpjj]

Justin: "Have you got any stats to back that up ?"
Breakdown of COVID death by age data and estimated life expectancy data, both from ONS, calculated in a simple spreadsheet.

 

[Justin Smith]

Justin: "Have you got any stats to back that up ?"
Breakdown of COVID death by age data and estimated life expectancy data, both from ONS, calculated in a simple spreadsheet.

Can you link to that ?

 

[jpjj]

Can you link to that ?

No, not enough posts yet. I think a link to ONS weekly death data has been posted recently on one of the threads here. Life expectancy data should be easy enough to find via Google, that's how I found it.

 

[Justin Smith]

No, not enough posts yet. I think a link to ONS weekly death data has been posted recently on one of the threads here. Life expectancy data should be easy enough to find via Google, that's how I found it.

This may be simplistic, but the average age of a Covid death is 82.4, or was, it'll drop pretty quickly from now on. At that age, if I remember correctly, a man has a life expectancy of about 7 years, and a woman around 8 years. That's still a fair amount of life to lose, particularly if one is in good health (not so much if one isn't....) but it's not like a child dying, or even someone in their 60s.
At 60 a man could expect to live to 85, a woman to 87.
At 69 a man to 86 and woman to 88.
So we'd be looking at potentially losing between 17 to 27 years.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula.../articles/lifeexpectancycalculator/2019-06-07

 

[Mr D]

This may be simplistic, but the average age of a Covid death is 82.4, or was, it'll drop pretty quickly from now on. At that age, if I remember correctly, a man has a life expectancy of about 7 years, and a woman around 8 years. That's still a fair amount of life to lose, particularly if one is in good health (not so much if one isn't....) but it's not like a child dying, or even someone in their 60s.
At 60 a man could expect to live to 85, a woman to 87.
At 69 a man to 86 and woman to 88.
So we'd be looking at potentially losing between 17 to 27 years.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula.../articles/lifeexpectancycalculator/2019-06-07

And the difference as you often point out to people is very small. Between non covid and covid.

The deaths among the immunised should drop - the over 85, over 75, severe health problems, care workers and NHS staff.
Among the others? Not so much. They are the control group - no change for them yet.

 

[Nico Albrecht]

Sweden different approach with same or better results. Depending how you wanna measure it but not worst than the UK.

As of mid January 2021 around 20% of available intensive care beds are free, though the situation varies in different regions.

The death rate per capita in Sweden, which avoided harsh lockdowns, is several times higher than that of its Nordic neighbours but lower than several European countries that opted for lockdown such as the UK.

Only bummer for the swedes is that their economy is heavily relying on other EU countries.

 

[Interestedobserver]

Just watched Anders Tegnell live on Peston

He thinks he needs 70 per cent to 80 per cent of Swedes to be vaccinated before they can get to normal. Which is 10 or 20 per cent higher than what he first had hoped

And when pushed he said it will be mid summer before this happens

He also said he expects many Swedes to continue to work from home even after they get Covid under control and that Sweden will have far less crowding in the cities in the future

A new normal for them

 

[Justin Smith]

Sweden was absolutely right. You try home schooling any child, but especially kids who are not rule followers like all those dutiful Asians (apparently). A headmistress on the radio was saying she reckons kids being home schooled are only actually learning about 20% of what they would in the classroom. It's appalling and completely unacceptable.
I can't help wondering what proportion of the suppression enthusiasts on here haven't got kids. I reckon it's probably pretty high. So, what they're basically saying is that schooling isn't their problem so they want to keep up with all these over cautious suppression measures because it's not affecting them so much.
So who are the selfish ones then ?

 

[Mr D]

Sweden was absolutely right. You try home schooling any child, but especially kids who are not rule followers like all those dutiful Asians (apparently). A headmistress on the radio was saying she reckons kids being home schooled are only actually learning about 20% of what they would in the classroom. It's appalling and completely unacceptable.
I can't help wondering what proportion of the suppression enthusiasts on here haven't got kids. I reckon it's probably pretty high. So, what they're basically saying is that schooling isn't their problem so they want to keep up with all these over cautious suppression measures because it's not affecting them so much.
So who are the selfish ones then ?

Strange that.
Lots of home schooled kids manage to get through a considerable amount of class work in a shorter time.
Or try a foundation course at college sometime. 4 years worth of school learning in 2 terms.

 

[Interestedobserver]

The kids going to private schools (I have a couple who work part time for me) are working harder than ever

Full day of online learning every day with their teachers with the normal school breaks

And you can guess why. The private schools are desperate not to have to refund fees etc

I've got a few state school kids working for me as well. I've not got into big detail what they are doing but they are definitely being given lots of work to do and working hard

These are diligent kids though who want to do well

 

[Justin Smith]

As we know, Sweden has never had a lockdown, and has had a light touch attitude to suppression including masks.
Note, at the time of this data it'd only vaccinated about 3% of its population as against the UK's 16%, yet its death rate is almost on the floor.
Its schools never shut.....
What an absolute load of ballcox we've had to put up with, and for what......

 

[gpietersz]

These are diligent kids though who want to do well

I think that is heart of it. its working where schools are geared up to it, kids are motivated, and kids are able to work from home.

There is a huge difference between an unmotivated kid having to work at the kitchen table, not having a computer, and a school that is not providing work, and a motivated kid, with space, a computer and a school that is handling things well.

My older daughter's sixth form college is doing well, they have lent laptops to those who do not have computers, allow those who do not have internet connections to come in, etc. but some kids are still not getting the work done, while the hard working are studying.

 

[Justin Smith]

I think that is heart of it. its working where schools are geared up to it, kids are motivated, and kids are able to work from home.

There is a huge difference between an unmotivated kid having to work at the kitchen table, not having a computer, and a school that is not providing work, and a motivated kid, with space, a computer and a school that is handling things well.

My older daughter's sixth form college is doing well, they have lent laptops to those who do not have computers, allow those who do not have internet connections to come in, etc. but some kids are still not getting the work done, while the hard working are studying.

There was a headteacher from an outstanding school on the radio the pother day and the said kids were on average only learning about 20% of what they'd learn in the classroom.....
But that is only school work, arguably school is just as much about other stuff.
Basically schools, esp primary schools, should never have shut.

 

[Mr D]

As we know, Sweden has never had a lockdown, and has had a light touch attitude to suppression including masks.
Note, at the time of this data it'd only vaccinated about 3% of its population as against the UK's 16%, yet its death rate is almost on the floor.
Its schools never shut.....
What an absolute load of ballcox we've had to put up with, and for what......

Only because you fixate on the deaths while everyone else has to deal with the rest of reality.

 

[Mr D]

There was a headteacher from an outstanding school on the radio the pother day and the said kids were on average only learning about 20% of what they'd learn in the classroom.....
But that is only school work, arguably school is just as much about other stuff.
Basically schools, esp primary schools, should never have shut.

Schools should never have shut? Then we'd have had more infections, more hospitalisations, more deaths.
And lockdown in January would have started early December - no let up for Christmas day.

 

[Justin Smith]

Only because you fixate on the deaths while everyone else has to deal with the rest of reality.

Deaths are the only relatively comparable stat between different countries and periods.
But even they aren't actually as objective as one would think.
In the early part of this pandemic I know for a fact deaths were being recorded as with Covid without tests being done. Similarly when is death with Covid death from Covid. A good example is Cpt Tom, he went in to hosp with pneumonia but had Covid when he died so he will be in the Covid stats. But my father in law died of pneumonia in his early 80s, it's entirely possible Capt Tom might have actually died anyway.

 

[Justin Smith]

Schools should never have shut? Then we'd have had more infections, more hospitalisations, more deaths.
And lockdown in January would have started early December - no let up for Christmas day.

Risk v benefit....... Something never considered by suppression enthusiasts.
But anyway, Primary schools for certain are not major spreaders of Covid : FACT.
Sweden never closed any of its schools as far as I'm aware, and their death rate is on the floor now, far lower than ours, despite the fact they have only vaccinated 3% of their population.

 

[jpjj]

Sweden never closed any of its schools as far as I'm aware

From the Independent:
"Covid: No-lockdown Sweden to shut secondary schools for a month to combat second wave"

 

[Mr D]

Deaths are the only relatively comparable stat between different countries and periods.
But even they aren't actually as objective as one would think.
In the early part of this pandemic I know for a fact deaths were being recorded as with Covid without tests being done. Similarly when is death with Covid death from Covid. A good example is Cpt Tom, he went in to hosp with pneumonia but had Covid when he died so he will be in the Covid stats. But my father in law died of pneumonia in his early 80s, it's entirely possible Capt Tom might have actually died anyway.

Deaths are the only measure you focus on consistently.

For others there is infection spread, there is impact on hospitals, there is keeping some health service available!

Deaths recorded the same way by the same measure can be compared. Are all nations both recording the deaths correctly and using the same measure?
If not then there will be some you cannot compare like for like with.
If - of course - they are reporting the deaths at all. Or are testing people.

 

[Mr D]

Risk v benefit....... Something never considered by suppression enthusiasts.
But anyway, Primary schools for certain are not major spreaders of Covid : FACT.
Sweden never closed any of its schools as far as I'm aware, and their death rate is on the floor now, far lower than ours, despite the fact they have only vaccinated 3% of their population.

You'll know more suppression enthusiasts than me. I don't think I've seen any on the forums, maybe you've been looking on facebook or mumsnet?

Do primary schools spread covid? Yes. Do the kids keep social distance, wear masks around others, stay away from all adults? No.

Sweden can do what it wants - its death toll per capita has been higher than its neighbours. Just like us. How are their hospitals coping?


Oh and your fact has never been disputed. However they are spreaders of covid.

If kids are not mixing with others then much harder for them to spread the virus to others. Hey, same as for you!

update39-covid-and-schools.pdf (who.int)

Questions and answers on COVID-19: Children aged 1 – 18 years and the role of school settings (europa.eu)

 

[Annoying Donkey]

Even Sweden admitted they got it wrong...

NZ (and Oz, Thailand, and others) locked down and closed borders right from the start. 20 odd deaths, everything is more or less back to normal for most people, economy one of the strongest...

Surely time this thread - and others like it - was shut down...

 

[Interestedobserver]

From the Independent:
"Covid: No-lockdown Sweden to shut secondary schools for a month to combat second wave"

He's only interested in deaths

 

[Justin Smith]

Even Sweden admitted they got it wrong...

NZ (and Oz, Thailand, and others) locked down and closed borders right from the start. 20 odd deaths, everything is more or less back to normal for most people, economy one of the strongest...

Surely time this thread - and others like it - was shut down...

That's not actually true is it ?
But apart form anything else, nobody will know who has got it right for a few years, because nobody knows just how much damage has been done to society and the economy buy all these draconian suppression measures. What is for sure I, and many others, would rather have been living in Sweden than this draconian country for the last year or so, why does that not count for anything ?

NZ and AUS are outliers, there is no way we could have adopted their strategy, that has been discussed before and is accepted by pretty much everyone.
You are also forgetting that NZ and AUS made a big gamble on effective vaccines being available relatively quickly, if that had not come to pass (and remember that it's not that long ago that many "experts" were pessimistic on that score) they'd have been in the *** because they'd have had to cut themselves off from the world forever.

 

[Justin Smith]

You'll know more suppression enthusiasts than me. I don't think I've seen any on the forums, maybe you've been looking on facebook or mumsnet?

Do primary schools spread covid? Yes. Do the kids keep social distance, wear masks around others, stay away from all adults? No.

Sweden can do what it wants - its death toll per capita has been higher than its neighbours. Just like us. How are their hospitals coping?


Oh and your fact has never been disputed. However they are spreaders of covid.

If kids are not mixing with others then much harder for them to spread the virus to others. Hey, same as for you!

update39-covid-and-schools.pdf (who.int)

Questions and answers on COVID-19: Children aged 1 – 18 years and the role of school settings (europa.eu)

It is accepted by pretty much everyone that primary age kids are poor spreaders of Covid, you are spreading false information.

I can tell from your attitude to school closures you haven't got kids you're having to home educate, perhaps you should try putting yourself in other people's shoes for once.

 

[Mr D]

That's not actually true is it ?
But apart form anything else, nobody will know who has got it right for a few years, because nobody knows just how much damage has been done to society and the economy buy all these draconian suppression measures.

NZ and AUS are outliers, there is no way we could have adopted their strategy, that has been discussed before and is accepted by pretty much everyone.
You are also forgetting that NZ and AUS made a big gamble on effective vaccines being available relatively quickly, if that had not come to pass (and remember that it's not that long ago that many "experts" were pessimistic on that score) they'd have been in the *** because they'd have had to cut themselves off from the world forever.

Strangely they didn't cut themselves off from the world. Just reduced impact of the virus by restricting its ability to enter the country.
Rather better than we did.

 

[Justin Smith]

He's only interested in deaths

A slightly misleading quote of yours wan't it ?

The country’s gymnasier — secondary schools which teach students aged 16 and over — will shut down from next week

I was talking about primary schools, but, in the last year, how many months have Swedish secondary schools been closed compared to ours.....

 

[Justin Smith]

Strangely they didn't cut themselves off from the world. Just reduced impact of the virus by restricting its ability to enter the country.
Rather better than we did.

No they did cut themselves off from the rest of the world, that's the only reason they managed to get away with such a low death toll, please don't twist facts.

 

[Mr D]

It is accepted by pretty much everyone that primary age kids are poor spreaders of Covid, you are spreading false information.

I can tell from your attitude to school closures you haven't got kids you're having to home educate, perhaps you should try putting yourself in other people's shoes for once.

Me spreading false information? Or those sites spreading what you claim is false information?
The first site is WHO, the second is European Centre for Disease Control.

But obviously to you they are spreading false information!

True, I don't home educate as I cannot have kids.

My younger sister home educated for about 8 years. I have several friends who home educated their kids, one did it for her kids from age 5 to 18. For the most part nice kids, well educated.

I also work with many people who don't have their kids in school full time - at least partly home educating at least one child. Lots of that happening this time - some schools are a lot fuller than they were last Spring.

 

[Mr D]

No they did cut themselves off from the rest of the world, that's the only reason they managed to get away with such a low death toll, please don't twist facts.

They did not cut themselves off. Now you are twisting facts.

They quarantined arrivals, they shipped goods. A long long way from cutting themselves off.
We didn't stop flights, we didn't quarantine people by force, we didn't even do much checking up on the tens of thousands entering the country each day to make sure they were quarantining for 2 weeks....

Global Economic and Trade Update for New Zealand Businesses - 2 September 2020 | New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (mfat.govt.nz)
"According to annual trade figures, for the year ended July 2020 New Zealand’s goods exports rose 2.1%, reaching $60.22 billion while goods imports experienced a 6.4% fall ($60.34 billion).

• Comparing provisional New Zealand goods trade data for the fortnight ending 26 August 2020 with the equivalent fortnight in 2019, total exports to all countries were up 8.05% from $1.81 billion to $1.96 billion, while total imports from all countries were down 9.3% from $2.64 billion to $2.39 billion."

 

[jpjj]

If you and "many others" had been magically relocated to Sweden in the early days of this, and behaved as many others in the UK have over the past year, rather than like the Swedes themselves, I wonder what impact that would have had on Sweden's figures.

 

[Interestedobserver]

It's so funny that Justin above says it's too early to see if Sweden was right or not when 7 months ago he actually started this very thread suggesting Sweden was right after all!

Its all about what fits his agenda at the time

He actually forgets what he's said from week to week

 

[Justin Smith]

Nice of the Govt (and the Beeb) to prove me right so quickly.....
"Full scare propaganda mode" :

1 - The scientists responsible for the report BoJo was using to say the new variant of Covid "was more deadly" are rowing back on it. They're saying he jumped the gun, they're not actually so sure it is yet. It might be, but the point is the Govt, as they have all the way through, have exaggerated and been overly pessimistic so as to promote fear "to ensure compliance". Nobody can reasonably deny that.

2 - On the Beeb tonight "Record numbers are on ventilation" [in hospital].
Yes they're right, but they don't mention that Covid hospitalisations have been going down for three days. Yet more pessimistic fear propaganda (but I'm sure some on here will still click unimpressed even though I'm just quoting facts) :

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

Vaccinated (first dose & second dose) :
18 Jan = 4.06M & 452K
19 Jan = 4.27M & 456K
20 Jan = 4.61M & 461K
21 Jan = 4.97M & 464K
22 Jan = 5.38M & 467K
23 Jan = 5.86M & 469K

Hospitalised :
18 Jan = 37.5K
19 Jan = 38.5K
20 Jan = 39.1K
21 Jan = 38.7K
22 Jan = 38.5K
23 Jan = 37.9K

On ventilation :
18 Jan = 3.8K
19 Jan = 3.9K
20 Jan = 3.9K
21 Jan = 4.0K
22 Jan = 4.0K
23 Jan = 4.1K

Is it any wonder I take anything the Govt say about Covid with a MASSIVE pinch of salt ?

They're at it again, the Govt and the Beeb misrepresenting facts etc in a bid to keep people frightened, have they no shame ?

BBC Text service :
"The Oxford vaccine offers minimal protection against mild disease from the South African variant of Covid".

Even I, as a fully paid up member of the Covid cynical squad was slightly worried about that, till I interpreted it into real language, and read the latter paragraph.....

"..... but it still protects against severe disease" [which is what ultimately matters].

Talk about misleading headlines, it's sickening they can do that.

 

[Mr D]

They're at it again, the Govt and the Beeb misrepresenting facts etc in a bid to keep people frightened, have they no shame ?

BBC Text service :
"The Oxford vaccine offers minimal protection against mild disease from the South African variant of Covid".

Even I, as a fully paid up member of the Covid cynical squad was slightly worried about that, till I interpreted it into real language, and read the latter paragraph.....

"..... but it still protects against severe disease" [which is what ultimately matters].

Talk about misleading headlines, it's sickening they can do that.

Strange that the BBC at the same time would have 2 different news stories on the same subject eh?
Covid: Oxford jab offers less S Africa variant protection - BBC News

 

[Interestedobserver]

They're at it again, the Govt and the Beeb misrepresenting facts etc in a bid to keep people frightened, have they no shame ?

BBC Text service :
"The Oxford vaccine offers minimal protection against mild disease from the South African variant of Covid".

Even I, as a fully paid up member of the Covid cynical squad was slightly worried about that, till I interpreted it into real language, and read the latter paragraph.....

"..... but it still protects against severe disease" [which is what ultimately matters].

Talk about misleading headlines, it's sickening they can do that.

No Justin. It you who "is at it again'"

Who exactly has said the Oxford vaccine protects against severe disease?

I would like to see that full quote please and who said it

As I've not read or seen that anywhere at all?

I have no doubt you are doing your usual and seeing things that aren't there. You grasp at everything you can to try and re-assure yourself

You are so predictable

 

[Interestedobserver]

Lol. I've found the article. Justin you joker - you are the one misquoting. You've put speech marks and pretended a quote has been made that hasn't been made!

Stop accusing the BBC of things you do far far worse yourself.

Nobody can believe a thing you write on here anymore. Twisting stuff again. To try and re-assure yourself.

Tut tut

Ps when Justin says "interpreted into my own language" he actually means "made something up'"

Justin can't be trusted

 

[gpietersz]

"..... but it still protects against severe disease" [which is what ultimately matters].

The failure to prevent mild infections does matter, because it makes it much harder to get herd immunity. In fact I think its the worst news I have read on covid in a long time.

If you have vaccination that is, say, 90% effective against all variants, if to give it to around three quarters of the population, we get herd immunity and its over.

If its 90% effective at preventing death and severe illness, but only reduces transmission by 50%, and you get 75% of the population to take it you are still looking at a death and serious illness total of about 20% of what you would have without vaccination - it would spread it out which would take the strain of the NHS, but it would still be a far from over.

 

[Justin Smith]

The failure to prevent mild infections does matter, because it makes it much harder to get herd immunity. In fact I think its the worst news I have read on covid in a long time.

If you have vaccination that is, say, 90% effective against all variants, if to give it to around three quarters of the population, we get herd immunity and its over.

If its 90% effective at preventing death and severe illness, but only reduces transmission by 50%, and you get 75% of the population to take it you are still looking at a death and serious illness total of about 20% of what you would have without vaccination - it would spread it out which would take the strain of the NHS, but it would still be a far from over.

AFAIK the take up for the vaccines is over 90% so far, though I concede younger people may be, almost certainly will be, more resistant to having it.
I thought they were talking about close to 100% effectiveness against serious illness ?
But, in any case, I can only repeat my earlier point, if, at the start of this pandemic, they'd discovered a drug which prevented serious illness at 95% or greater effectiveness, we wouldn't be doing all these suppression measures now, it'd have been over months ago. What is really depressing is the keep moving the goal posts to get back to normal life.

 

[Justin Smith]

Lol. I've found the article. Justin you joker - you are the one misquoting. You've put speech marks and pretended a quote has been made that hasn't been made!

Stop accusing the BBC of things you do far far worse yourself.

Nobody can believe a thing you write on here anymore. Twisting stuff again. To try and re-assure yourself.

Tut tut

Ps when Justin says "interpreted into my own language" he actually means "made something up'"

Justin can't be trusted

The quotes I gave from the BBC Text service were an accurate summation of it, I do not know what you are talking about TBH.
Generally on this point, you are either completely misunderstanding what every source is saying or you are trolling now. All sources are saying there is a possibility (and only a possibility as I understand it because it was apparently a small sample size) that the Oxford vaccine "only" protects against serious illness with SA variant.
Where does any source say that any vaccine is not effective at preventing serious illness ?

 

[Interestedobserver]

The quotes I gave from the BBC Text service were an accurate summation of it, I do not know what you are talking about TBH.
Generally on this point, you are either completely misunderstanding what every source is saying or you are trolling now. All sources are saying there is a possibility (and only a possibility as I understand it because it was apparently a small sample size) that the Oxford vaccine "only" protects against serious illness with SA variant.
Where does any source say that any vaccine is not effective at preventing serious illness ?

A statement with speech marks around it is a quote

You don't summarise what you think something means in an article and then put quotes around it as though someone who knows what they are talking about has made the statement

You've read an article, interpreted it the way that makes you feel better about yourself and then written something which you've added quotation marks to and then pretended it's an actual quote come from the article

I asked you to provide the full quote and say who had said it.

But as I suspected there is no such quote and in fact it's just your opinion again masquerading as a quote

Your level of intelligence really is worryingly low that so many of us even waste time debating with you. Either that or you are just deliberately being deceptive on here

Which was it?

Do you not understand what quotes are? Or were you being deceptive Justin?

 

[Mr D]

AFAIK the take up for the vaccines is over 90% so far, though I concede younger people may be, almost certainly will be, more resistant to having it.
I thought they were talking about close to 100% effectiveness against serious illness ?
But, in any case, I can only repeat my earlier point, if, at the start of this pandemic, they'd discovered a drug which prevented serious illness at 95% or greater effectiveness, we wouldn't be doing all these suppression measures now, it'd have been over months ago. What is really depressing is the keep moving the goal posts to get back to normal life.

The goal posts keep moving because the problems do not stay the same.
Be far more worried about governments sticking to plans despite changes in circumstances.