Was Sweden right after all ?

[Mr D]

It is possible because, as I keep saying, but people think I'm being rhetorical (I am not), we are in a post rational world.
Nobody know for sure what will happen, but it is most likely Covid will end up being like flu in the number it kills and hospitalises. We do not socially distance and wear masks because of flu, so why should we change our whole society because of Covid ? Answer ? Yes you've guessed it, we are now living in a post rational world where peoples risk aversion (esp about Covid) has reached new heights of absurdity.

Just like the risk aversion to killing other people by drink driving? Just like the risk aversion of not wearing seat belts? Just like the risk aversion of riding a motorbike with never wearing leathers?
Or never wearing a helmet? How about the risk aversion you see on building sites?

 

[Justin Smith]

Just like the risk aversion to killing other people by drink driving? Just like the risk aversion of not wearing seat belts? Just like the risk aversion of riding a motorbike with never wearing leathers?
Or never wearing a helmet? How about the risk aversion you see on building sites?

I have bookmarked this page now :

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

I shall be quoting hospitalisations as well as deaths from now on.

 

[Mr D]

I have bookmarked this page now :

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

I shall be quoting hospitalisations as well as deaths from now on.

Great. Perhaps when hospitalisation is down to 50 a day and 75 percent of the population is vaccinated then we can look at reducing some of the measures.
Quite a way from either yet.

 

[Justin Smith]

Great. Perhaps when hospitalisation is down to 50 a day * and 75 percent of the population is vaccinated then we can look at reducing some of the measures.
Quite a way from either yet.

* The NHS is on the verge of being overwhelmed at 37,282, but it'll have to get down to 50 "to reduce some of the measures".

You're trolling surely ?

 

[Mr D]

* The NHS is on the verge of being overwhelmed at 37,282, but it'll have to get down to 50 "to reduce some of the measures".

You're trolling surely ?

Wow, 37,282. Was only about 2,000 a day just a matter of days ago.

I'll accept whatever lower amount you will agree to. You know mine and you know I'm in favour of one lockdown rather than multiple lockdowns over time repeatedly.

Now what lower figure will you come up with? Bearing in mind once you take measures off the number will rise - so at 50 a day there is a lot of way to rise in order to get to crisis level again. At a higher figure there's less room to rise before lockdown / tier 4 or whatever system is put into place to reduce the growth and even knock figures down.

So what daily figure - bearing in mind time in hospital can be weeks or months per person - will be a good enough target? 100? 200? 300?
The site you linked to refers to a figure of 4,262 currently as daily figure for hospitalisation. Think we can both agree that is way too high to be ongoing?

Certainly whatever figure you want will have to be considerably lower than now or else we'll be doing lockdowns every few weeks!

 

[Justin Smith]

Wow, 37,282. Was only about 2,000 a day just a matter of days ago.

I'll accept whatever lower amount you will agree to. You know mine and you know I'm in favour of one lockdown rather than multiple lockdowns over time repeatedly.

Now what lower figure will you come up with? Bearing in mind once you take measures off the number will rise - so at 50 a day there is a lot of way to rise in order to get to crisis level again. At a higher figure there's less room to rise before lockdown / tier 4 or whatever system is put into place to reduce the growth and even knock figures down.

So what daily figure - bearing in mind time in hospital can be weeks or months per person - will be a good enough target? 100? 200? 300?
The site you linked to refers to a figure of 4,262 currently as daily figure for hospitalisation. Think we can both agree that is way too high to be ongoing?

Certainly whatever figure you want will have to be considerably lower than now or else we'll be doing lockdowns every few weeks!

The situation will change significantly once the top 15 million have been vaccinated. If it doesn't we're all in the ****, the Barrington scientists were right and we should go back to getting herd immunity by infection.
On the basis that it will get far better there is no reason to believe that hospitalisations will return to the previous level, not only are younger fitter people far less likely to suffer serious illness but they are arguably more likely to have been previously infected (many / most without even knowing it) and therefore have immunity from that. Lastly spring is on the way, which is not, err, flu season. By the time the next flu season comes along pretty much everyone who wants the vaccine will have had it.

 

[Aniela]

I have bookmarked this page now :

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

I shall be quoting hospitalisations as well as deaths from now on.

Hospitalisations are going to be very hard to get any meaning from going forward, in regards to us sorting out COVID.

Reason being, we've got a massive backlog (In the millions) at the NHS at the moment for routine hospital surgeries etc, and that will continue to grow for a little while yet.

At a certain point, we are going to have to play catch up on those, which is going to keep admissions high.

 

[Aniela]

Long Covid is exaggerated, you mark my words that is what they will conclude.

Based on what medical knowledge are you saying that?

Or are you just pulling it out of your backside from some stories you've read up online. You can't just pull an opinion out of thin air and just guess you're right.

That's now how it works.

 

[Justin Smith]

Wow, 37,282. Was only about 2,000 a day just a matter of days ago.

I'll accept whatever lower amount you will agree to. You know mine and you know I'm in favour of one lockdown rather than multiple lockdowns over time repeatedly.

Now what lower figure will you come up with? Bearing in mind once you take measures off the number will rise - so at 50 a day there is a lot of way to rise in order to get to crisis level again. At a higher figure there's less room to rise before lockdown / tier 4 or whatever system is put into place to reduce the growth and even knock figures down.

So what daily figure - bearing in mind time in hospital can be weeks or months per person - will be a good enough target? 100? 200? 300?
The site you linked to refers to a figure of 4,262 currently as daily figure for hospitalisation. Think we can both agree that is way too high to be ongoing?

Certainly whatever figure you want will have to be considerably lower than now or else we'll be doing lockdowns every few weeks!

The important figure is the number in hospital at any one time (37,282), certainly if "protecting the NHS" is the reason for all of this.

 

[Justin Smith]

Based on what medical knowledge are you saying that? [that Long Covid has been exaggerated]

Or are you just pulling it out of your backside from some stories you've read up online. You can't just pull an opinion out of thin air and just guess you're right.

That's now how it works.

We've been through this before, I cannot be bothered to do it all again, so I'll just say we will see won't we ?

 

[Aniela]

The important figure is the number in hospital at any one time (37,282), certainly if "protecting the NHS" is the reason for all of this.

It's a lot more complicated than that.

Patients in hospital with COVID is only part of the story.

The numbers you've shown are just COVID patients. It doesn't include patients without COVID that still need to be cared for.

It has to take into consideration hospital capacity, hospital staffing numbers, hospital beds, hospital resources (oxygen etc.) and whatever else I can't think off the top of my head, to deal with those patients -- You can't easily combine that data from the graphs you post, so they hold virtually no meaning.

For example, we're at 37,282 in hospital with COVID and can only just handle that. If we cut that number in half, but reduced staffing by half due to a mass outbreak in staff, you would think all is okay as admissions are down... even though we would be in the same situation/issue.

 

[Aniela]

We've been through this before, I cannot be bothered to do it all again, so I'll just say we will see won't we ?

The thing is, is if it did turn out correct, you would think you knew all along, when you didn't.

You just guessed and guessed correctly.

Yet you'll sit back thinking you actually knew. It's scary.

 

[Mr D]

The important figure is the number in hospital at any one time (37,282), certainly if "protecting the NHS" is the reason for all of this.

Drop the rate of hospital admissions and the numbers in hospital will be dealt with by the staff. Getting them all out of the door eventually.

 

[Interestedobserver]

The situation will change significantly once the top 15 million have been vaccinated. If it doesn't we're all in the ****, the Barrington scientists were right and we should go back to getting herd immunity by infection.
On the basis that it will get far better there is no reason to believe that hospitalisations will return to the previous level, not only are younger fitter people far less likely to suffer serious illness but they are arguably more likely to have been previously infected (many / most without even knowing it) and therefore have immunity from that. Lastly spring is on the way, which is not, err, flu season. By the time the next flu season comes along pretty much everyone who wants the vaccine will have had it.

But those who have had covid will have immunity worn off or have other variants to catch

And we will need to vaccinate everyone again whether they've had the virus or not?

So surely this huge vaccination programme is going to be like painting that bridge in Scotland?

Never ending?

And it's going to be the winters where we face the most problems and potential lockdowns in the future when needed

I'm expecting a stop start 2 or 3 years ahead myself

 

[Interestedobserver]

The important figure is the number in hospital at any one time (37,282), certainly if "protecting the NHS" is the reason for all of this.

Does this mean you've FINALLY ONCE AND FOR ALL moved on from only worrying about deaths?

Please say it does?

We might make some progress into you understanding why we have to have lockdowns and wear masks etc

 

[Lucan Unlordly]

Online shopping will be a winner. People will be hesitant to pay big deposits for anything again. People won't necessarily want to drive up and down motorways again every day if they can avoid. Meetings will be far more online etc etc etc. Loads more people will work from home. People will save more (if they can) as they will realise consistent income isn't a guarantee. It will be harder and more expensive for older people to get insurance. I could go on.

When we've set down some foundations, started a family, had a few holidays it's easier to tread water and do what needs to be done, to set a new normal. For many it's simply not possible.

I have a 30 year old daughter, 31 and 35 year old nieces who are all single and need to be working with people, need to be socialising, need to be finding and meeting partners. Early to mid 20's you can maybe lose a couple of years but they are at an age when their biological and chronological clocks are ticking, when friends are settling down and they want to do the same.

My mother in law has no such demands on life but every day, every week. month and year that passes, is time that she cannot recoup.

 

[Mr D]

When we've set down some foundations, started a family, had a few holidays it's easier to tread water and do what needs to be done, to set a new normal. For many it's simply not possible.

I have a 30 year old daughter, 31 and 35 year old nieces who are all single and need to be working with people, need to be socialising, need to be finding and meeting partners. Early to mid 20's you can maybe lose a couple of years but they are at an age when their biological and chronological clocks are ticking, when friends are settling down and they want to do the same.

My mother in law has no such demands on life but every day, every week. month and year that passes, is time that she cannot recoup.

Time is something we are all spending. And sometimes things are left too late. They've each had most of their lives to socialise.

Socialising, finding and meeting partners? Some manage to do it at a distance.
Even now under lockdown people can meet up.

Perhaps if they meet people at a distance? Get themselves a dog each and go walking the dog every day - soon meet plenty of other dog walkers and we don't need to approach within 2 metres to chat, to discuss our furbabies, to suggest good or bad areas etc.

 

[Lucan Unlordly]

Time is something we are all spending. And sometimes things are left too late. They've each had most of their lives to socialise.

Socialising, finding and meeting partners? Some manage to do it at a distance.
Even now under lockdown people can meet up.

Perhaps if they meet people at a distance? Get themselves a dog each and go walking the dog every day - soon meet plenty of other dog walkers and we don't need to approach within 2 metres to chat, to discuss our furbabies, to suggest good or bad areas etc.

Most of their lives to socialise? Returning to the UK after working abroad, just getting head straight and recovering from the breakdown of a long term relationship, or just not found Mr Right.
I'm talking about being in the company of others in like minded situations, at work , at an event, on a holiday with friends or family. Catching the bus, getting a train, queueing for a taxi after leaving a club. Normality.

I had a dog for 12 years and can count the number of potential suitors I met on the fingers of one foot.

 

[Mr D]

Most of their lives to socialise? Returning to the UK after working abroad, just getting head straight and recovering from the breakdown of a long term relationship, or just not found Mr Right.
I'm talking about being in the company of others in like minded situations, at work , at an event, on a holiday with friends or family. Catching the bus, getting a train, queueing for a taxi after leaving a club. Normality.

I had a dog for 12 years and can count the number of potential suitors I met on the fingers of one foot.

Yes, most of their lives to socialize. You know, develop friendships and build relationships.
There are people out there that keep in touch with people they first came across before 2020.

You want normality? Couple of years away.
Could be longer.

Perhaps they can do what you cannot regarding socialize with a dog. Perhaps be less picky about a suitor than you.

 

[Interestedobserver]

When we've set down some foundations, started a family, had a few holidays it's easier to tread water and do what needs to be done, to set a new normal. For many it's simply not possible.

I have a 30 year old daughter, 31 and 35 year old nieces who are all single and need to be working with people, need to be socialising, need to be finding and meeting partners. Early to mid 20's you can maybe lose a couple of years but they are at an age when their biological and chronological clocks are ticking, when friends are settling down and they want to do the same.

My mother in law has no such demands on life but every day, every week. month and year that passes, is time that she cannot recoup.

I get it. But you can't change what we are facing. I just urge everyone to adapt and make an effort to get the most they can from life even now. Don't tread water and wait. That's what I'm trying to do for me and my family.

Looking at places in UK for a summer holiday we've not visited before. Getting out walking and on bike rides. Starting new hobbies etc

If I was single I'm sure I would find some way to socialise somehow. I wouldn't allow this to put my life on hold

As you kind of say - life's too short

 

[Justin Smith]

When we've set down some foundations, started a family, had a few holidays it's easier to tread water and do what needs to be done, to set a new normal. For many it's simply not possible.

I have a 30 year old daughter, 31 and 35 year old nieces who are all single and need to be working with people, need to be socialising, need to be finding and meeting partners. Early to mid 20's you can maybe lose a couple of years but they are at an age when their biological and chronological clocks are ticking, when friends are settling down and they want to do the same.

My mother in law has no such demands on life but every day, every week. month and year that passes, is time that she cannot recoup.

This is a very very good point. People talk like wanting to socialise is something frivolous and "you should be ashamed of yourself think about that when people are dying...." But that really is an unfair and simplistic thing to say, particularly when all those people socialising are giving employment to millions of people.

 

[Justin Smith]

Time is something we are all spending. And sometimes things are left too late. They've each had most of their lives to socialise.

Socialising, finding and meeting partners? Some manage to do it at a distance.
Even now under lockdown people can meet up.

Perhaps if they meet people at a distance? Get themselves a dog each and go walking the dog every day - soon meet plenty of other dog walkers and we don't need to approach within 2 metres to chat, to discuss our furbabies, to suggest good or bad areas etc.

I don't think it's really fair to, in effect, say it's their fault for not meeting someone earlier.

 

[Justin Smith]

I get it. But you can't change what we are facing. I just urge everyone to adapt and make an effort to get the most they can from life even now. Don't tread water and wait. That's what I'm trying to do for me and my family.

Looking at places in UK for a summer holiday we've not visited before. Getting out walking and on bike rides. Starting new hobbies etc

If I was single I'm sure I would find some way to socialise somehow. I wouldn't allow this to put my life on hold

As you kind of say - life's too short

But we can, it's about where we draw the balance between risk (from Covid) and living our lives.

 

[Interestedobserver]

But we can, it's about where we draw the balance between risk (from Covid) and living our lives.

Trust me you wont be able to change anything from above

You are more than capable of changing things within the new rules and making the most of a bad situation

 

[Mr D]

This is a very very good point. People talk like wanting to socialise is something frivolous and "you should be ashamed of yourself think about that when people are dying...." But that really is an unfair and simplistic thing to say, particularly when all those people socialising are giving employment to millions of people.

They are able to socialize to a point currently. They are unlikely to socialize in a nightclub any time soon.
Even socialize in a c of e church is getting harder this year.

 

[Mr D]

I don't think it's really fair to, in effect, say it's their fault for not meeting someone earlier.

Never suggested that.
Sorry if anyone got that impression.

Most of us will have relationships going back years - maybe even decades.

Can still meet people now - online, over the phone, outside for exercise etc.
Or for dating the dating websites and apps have been around for years.

 

[fisicx]

The lockdowns are not the whole story. I expect the lockdown(s) to be gone within 4 to 6 weeks (8 at the very most)

Probably going to be a bit longer than this.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55045639

It says remaining priority groups get their first dose from end of Feb. Then a second dose around a month later. So at least end of March, probably end April before all the priority groups are fully immunised.

But we might be lucky and get some restrictions lifted for Easter.

 

[Interestedobserver]

Probably going to be a bit longer than this.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55045639

It says remaining priority groups get their first dose from end of Feb. Then a second dose around a month later. So at least end of March, probably end April before all the priority groups are fully immunised.

But we might be lucky and get some restrictions lifted for Easter.

They wil start slowly going back through the tiers in March I reckon from everything I've read

Restaurants opening in the better performing areas

Pubs back open May ish time when the weather starts to improve

We will get a bit of freedom I'm sure throughout the summer then come October we will have trouble with various variants etc and back into tiers and potential lockdown whilst we start vaccinating in bulk again

Can't see anything better than that coming our way

There was no way rushed vaccines and vaccination programmes was going to win this battle so quickly

Lots of ups and downs to come I'm sure

At least we have some hope via the vaccines and science though.

We werent even sure we would ever get a vaccine this time last year. Well done to the scientists around the world

Now we've got to see how effective the vaccines we have are against the illness and how tough a battle the new variants are going to give us

Im sure we will win eventually but I don't think it will be this year

 

[Mr D]

Probably going to be a bit longer than this.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55045639

It says remaining priority groups get their first dose from end of Feb. Then a second dose around a month later. So at least end of March, probably end April before all the priority groups are fully immunised.

But we might be lucky and get some restrictions lifted for Easter.

Initially they said February with at least one suggestion of 5th April.
Now they are saying end of February.

Its a step process - getting to the end without telling you at the start the end is xxx date because they don't know what that date is but its certainly not February.

 

[Lucan Unlordly]

Yes, most of their lives to socialize. You know, develop friendships and build relationships.
There are people out there that keep in touch with people they first came across before 2020.

You want normality? Couple of years away.
Could be longer.

Perhaps they can do what you cannot regarding socialize with a dog. Perhaps be less picky about a suitor than you.

It's against the law to leave your home or meet with people outside your household without a good reason, for example shopping for essentials.

 

[Mr D]

It's against the law to leave your home or meet with people outside your household without a good reason, for example shopping for essentials.

Very good. Now look at the other allowable reasons.

Figure how much safe socialising someone can do in the others without risking anyone or breaking the law.

 

[Interestedobserver]

If you want an idea of how long we may face restrictions for over here

The Australian Heath Secretary has just stated they may keep their borders closed throughout 2021. Despite the huge financial impact that will have on their country.

"Even if we have a lot of the population vaccinated, we don't know whether that will prevent transmission of the virus,"

There's a country with just 22,000 cases and 900 deaths since Covid began. Totally on top of the disease in comparison to us and with a huge head start over most of the world.

But realistic enough to know that even in such a strong situation there are no guarantees with the vaccines at all and it's going to be very slow and steady progress rather than a quick fix

It's so much harder for us than them in comparison to get back to normal.

Hence why I'm expecting a lot more ups and downs and lot more disruption, restrictions and lockdowns ahead for us all over here

 

[Justin Smith]

Probably going to be a bit longer than this.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55045639

It says remaining priority groups get their first dose from end of Feb. Then a second dose around a month later. So at least end of March, probably end April before all the priority groups are fully immunised.

But we might be lucky and get some restrictions lifted for Easter.

So, I'm in my mid 50s and I am regarded as a priority group ? Well I'm quite happy to be so regarded to get my jab early, so long as that doesn't postpone the lifting of restrictions. If it does then I do not wish myself, or others of the same (relatively low, 1 in 500 ? ) risk, to be regarded as a priority group.

 

[Justin Smith]

If you want an idea of how long we may face restrictions for over here

The Australian Heath Secretary has just stated they may keep their borders closed throughout 2021. Despite the huge financial impact that will have on their country.

"Even if we have a lot of the population vaccinated, we don't know whether that will prevent transmission of the virus,"

There's a country with just 22,000 cases and 900 deaths since Covid began. Totally on top of the disease in comparison to us and with a huge head start over most of the world.

But realistic enough to know that even in such a strong situation there are no guarantees with the vaccines at all and it's going to be very slow and steady progress rather than a quick fix

It's so much harder for us than them in comparison to get back to normal.

Hence why I'm expecting a lot more ups and downs and lot more disruption, restrictions and lockdowns ahead for us all over here

I'd rather be living in Sweden than Australia.....

 

[fisicx]

So, I'm in my mid 50s and I am regarded as a priority group ? Well I'm quite happy to be so regarded to get my jab early, so long as that doesn't postpone the lifting of restrictions. If it does then I do not wish myself, or others of the same (relatively low, 1 in 500 ? ) risk, to be regarded as a priority group.

All restrictions? If that’s what you are hoping for it’s not going to happen for a loooong time. What you will get is very cautious lifting of some restrictions then a pause to see what happens.

 

[Interestedobserver]

So, I'm in my mid 50s and I am regarded as a priority group ? Well I'm quite happy to be so regarded to get my jab early, so long as that doesn't postpone the lifting of restrictions. If it does then I do not wish myself, or others of the same (relatively low, 1 in 500 ? ) risk, to be regarded as a priority group.

A report said last week that when the NHS hospitals are as busy as they are now your risk of dying from Covid increases by a decade so think of yourself as 65 ish at the moment in terms of Covid risk of death

 

[simon field]

Up here in sunny Norfolk, they’re actually IMPORTING COVID into hospitals from other areas such as Essex & London.

So whilst bitching at the public for going more than 10 metres from their houses, they’re spreading disease from all over the place!

Latest in a very long line of stupidity..

 

[Newchodge]

Up here in sunny Norfolk, they’re actually IMPORTING COVID into hospitals from other areas such as Essex & London.

So whilst *****ing at the public for going more than 10 metres from their houses, they’re spreading disease from all over the place!

Latest in a very long line of stupidity..

NORFOLK? They are importing them from London to Newcastle!

 

[simon field]

The constant drip-drip-drip of ‘Behave yourselves’, ‘look at these young people in hospital with it’, ‘don’t kill granny’, ‘delay, contain, mitigate’ and all the other soundbyte slogans they keep coming up with is wearing really really thin.

 

[fisicx]

So whilst *****ing at the public for going more than 10 metres from their houses, they’re spreading disease from all over the place!..

No they aren’t. Patients are being moved after the infectious phase has passed.