Brexit negotiations
- Thread starter Scott-Copywriter
- Start date
Cannot happen?
You (ahem) cannot know that. Lots of time and money spent and some political careers have been bet on this happening.
You believe this will not happen. I hope you are right.
As things stand at this moment I just don't believe you are right.
Upvote
0
It will be the biggest cop-out in history if it doesn't happen - and deeply disappointing for many.
The only possible justification I can see for back-pedaling now is if the EU agrees to fundamentally reform and become what it was supposed to be - a trading and anti-war union.
We can but dream.
Upvote
0
T
The Byre
Most political initiatives are exercises in futility - and this one is no exception! They range in their abject stupidity and futility from the ground-nut scheme to communism, from the great NHS IT programme, to austerity - all these things do is cost money for absolutely no benefit to anybody.
Politicians the World over honestly believe that the laws of economics and the laws of physics to not apply to them! Denying economic or physical reality is my definition of stupidity.
The idea that Britain can survive as an independent economy away from Europe when we are both economically and physically a part of Europe, is to fly magnificently in the face of reality!
You might just squeeze a 'Norway' through, but that's about the best Brexiteers can hope for! Britain is a part of the European subcontinent and there's absolutely nothing anybody can do about that.
Politicians the World over honestly believe that the laws of economics and the laws of physics to not apply to them! Denying economic or physical reality is my definition of stupidity.
The idea that Britain can survive as an independent economy away from Europe when we are both economically and physically a part of Europe, is to fly magnificently in the face of reality!
You might just squeeze a 'Norway' through, but that's about the best Brexiteers can hope for! Britain is a part of the European subcontinent and there's absolutely nothing anybody can do about that.
Upvote
0
D
Deleted member 59730
It is already deeply disappointing for many. I have now heard of 3 recent graduates, children of friends, who are in the depths of depression. Bursting into tears at the removal of their career chances. I saw a young woman, too young to vote in the illegal referendum, crying in the street when she described how her planned course of study had been curtailed.
Sitting in a French bar last week I was asked a question by a Frenchman. Why, when we welcome so many different peoples from all over the world, Indians, Pakistanis, West Indians, Bangladeshis, Hindus, Moslems, Rastafarians and Sikhs, do we hate our white Christian neighbours so much? Quite why does Theresa May hate Europeans? I didn't have an answer. Do you?
To help with your answer the latest figures show.....
Migration from the EU 74,000
Migration from rest of the world 248,000
Upvote
0
- Original Poster
- #3,967
The Byre has been saying Brexit won't happen since the day after the referendum. Possibly earlier.
I didn't used to believe him, but now I'm starting to think it's a possibility.
It's becoming increasingly clear that the public voted for a form of Brexit that is unobtainable due to the Irish border. It has nothing to do with negotiation ability. We just can't leave without a backstop. Nor can we leave with no deal either, as it results in the same underlying problem.
Because of that, the only option on the table is a form of Brexit that, while satisfying some of the "mandate", ultimately has a good chance of putting us in a position of less control than we had before. We even have Brexit-supporting MPs saying that it's worse than staying in the EU, and in some respects, they are right.
The options available to May are dwindling fast. The only tools she has left is to try to push the deal through, and if it does fail (which is likely), then try again a second time.
If neither of those work, then the only realistic option I can see is to extend Article 50 and hold a referendum on the deal, either with or without the option to remain included. Either way, the only way no deal could possibly happen is if the public votes for it in a new referendum. But even then, I don't think the politicians would give the public the choice if there's a good chance of that happening. They can't take the risk.
In my view, we're either leaving with this deal, or we aren't leaving at all.
Upvote
0
T
The Byre
The great referendum debate in 1975 broke out when I was studying economics and I had to write ll sorts of daft papers both for and against. It dawned on me back then, that joining the Common Market was a step that cannot ever be undone.
You could make a very good argument for not ever having joined in the first place - but we are where we are! One can make all sorts of wonderful what-if arguments, but as any sensible business person knows, you must face reality! The UK economy and UK society is now deeply integrated into Europe.
The reality is, it was never any other way! Brits have been trading with the rest of Europe since pre-history! And most of the time, this has been happening without tariffs and restrictions - those are relatively modern inventions!
Where the whole enterprise degenerates into the laughable, is when dogma-blinded politicians try to wrestle with the concept that part of the UK is in another EU country and constitutionally cannot have a boarder, either with that other country, or with the rest of the UK.
Upvote
0
It may be old age creeping up (fiarly rapidly) but my memory of the 1975 referendum, in which I voted, was that it was held after we ere members of the Common Market. I can't exactly remember what the question I voted on was, but I feel sure we ere already members.
Upvote
0
Yes we joined in 1973. The question in the 1975 referendum was (from Wikipedia):
"Do you think the United Kingdom should stay in the European Community (the Common Market)?".
I was just past the voting age by a couple of weeks and I remember I was feeling very grown up when I voted. I cannot remember there being a massive amount of coverage of the referendum from the media before the vote. I cannot remember any extended news and current affairs TV programmes on the subject. Though I remember there was a bit on Nationwide (remember that) between the skateboarding-duck-type stories. Things have changed.
"Do you think the United Kingdom should stay in the European Community (the Common Market)?".
I was just past the voting age by a couple of weeks and I remember I was feeling very grown up when I voted. I cannot remember there being a massive amount of coverage of the referendum from the media before the vote. I cannot remember any extended news and current affairs TV programmes on the subject. Though I remember there was a bit on Nationwide (remember that) between the skateboarding-duck-type stories. Things have changed.
Upvote
0
D
Deleted member 59730
You forget the 1997 General Election when the Referendum party lost in every single seat. The recent illegal referendum was the third chance for the voters to show their preferences.
Upvote
0
The voters had this choice.
Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?
Brexit is the result of the vote, people didn't vote on Brexit, they just voted on whether we would remain a member of the EU or leave. And Brexit turns out to be complicated. To the surprise of some people including politicians.
Some voters, including at least a couple on the forums, also want to be involved in the decision making regarding Brexit. That's what we have MPs and government for, to make decisions. Much to the annoyance of those people they aren't involved in every decision.
The possibility of a new referendum next summer exists, a more likely possibility than it was 3 months ago. But needs political will to push it through and so far there isn't political will or else we'd have seen a bill going through parliament!
Upvote
0
Come off it, places can have more than one referendum.
There have been 11 major referendums.
Did you complain about the 1997 ones in Scotland and Wales? They were similar to the 1979 referendums.
Or is a referendum on the same topic after a further 18 years somehow bad because people may have changed their minds?
Heck, the SNP claimed the independence referendum as a once in a generation opportunity. Gerbil generations perhaps, a year later they were pushing for a fresh referendum as the answer was wrong. Have you complained to the SNP about what a breach of democracy the Scots have had?
Upvote
0
- Original Poster
- #3,977
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46407249
He's right. And the situation with Galileo is a taste of it. Now we're set to spend £92 million just to figure out if we can create our own system.
But this points to a deeper concern. Within the EU, the "competitive" nature of intra-European affairs are mitigated by the fact that the 28 members don't just do what's best for themselves, but also what's best for the EU as a whole. Yes, there's always a bit of jostling, but no EU member is going to undermine another EU member in any serious way.
Now though, we'll be a third country. We'll be an active competitor on many fronts, not just with each of the 27 members, but also the entire EU that prioritises itself and its members over us. What used to be in our corner will now be in front of us and ready to fight when needed.
Don't get me wrong. I'm sure the UK could chug along without too much trouble. But this makes everything we'll try to do a lot harder. In almost every facet, the EU (which is an economic and political behemoth) will work against us if anything we try to do is not in the best interests of the 27 member states. If we try to attract more business and investment, they'll try to attract it the other way. It's going to be relentless, and right on our doorstep.
It's nothing personal, of course. That's the game. We'll have no hesitation trying to extract what we can from the EU, much in the same way that China and the US will not hesitate to squeeze what they can out of us.
It is what it is. We'll soldier on. But it would have been nice to make things easier for ourselves, not harder. It's difficult enough as it is.
He's right. And the situation with Galileo is a taste of it. Now we're set to spend £92 million just to figure out if we can create our own system.
But this points to a deeper concern. Within the EU, the "competitive" nature of intra-European affairs are mitigated by the fact that the 28 members don't just do what's best for themselves, but also what's best for the EU as a whole. Yes, there's always a bit of jostling, but no EU member is going to undermine another EU member in any serious way.
Now though, we'll be a third country. We'll be an active competitor on many fronts, not just with each of the 27 members, but also the entire EU that prioritises itself and its members over us. What used to be in our corner will now be in front of us and ready to fight when needed.
Don't get me wrong. I'm sure the UK could chug along without too much trouble. But this makes everything we'll try to do a lot harder. In almost every facet, the EU (which is an economic and political behemoth) will work against us if anything we try to do is not in the best interests of the 27 member states. If we try to attract more business and investment, they'll try to attract it the other way. It's going to be relentless, and right on our doorstep.
It's nothing personal, of course. That's the game. We'll have no hesitation trying to extract what we can from the EU, much in the same way that China and the US will not hesitate to squeeze what they can out of us.
It is what it is. We'll soldier on. But it would have been nice to make things easier for ourselves, not harder. It's difficult enough as it is.
Upvote
0
Upvote
0
I think it's going to be largely decided by how they portray the options.
There are currently a lot of people who believe that "No Deal" means we return to the "status quo" of EU membership before the referendum. Additionally the PM has been openly lying about what her 'agreement' means, telling us that stopping Freedom of Movement in the UK doesn't mean that it also ends for UK citizens abroad (when it absolutely does since the EU's offer is based on reciprocity).
If the People's Vote referendum is going to be about making an informed decision then that information has to available, even if just in summary, at the polling booth; what each choice is and what the effects are predicted to be. A lot of people have just tuned out at this point and don't follow it because it's exhausting, so they need to have the information as well.
The media (including, sadly, the BBC) will probably help muddy the water as to what "No Deal" and "May's Agreement" actually mean and what the outcomes of those will be (we've seen they're still happy to keep flogging the dead horse of "project fear").
I'm still not convinced that she's not going to just sacrifice herself on the Brexit altar and just get it across the line no matter the cost, but failing that the People's Vote is now much more likely and the option to Remain only slightly less so. There is hope for this nation yet!
Upvote
0
Oh, I think most of us can understand and sympathize with those on both sides of the debate, but there's also evidence to consider and it's weighted very much in one direction.
You feel you don't have to worry about it? Good for you! Lots of people in the country, not just the poorest and most vulnerable - will be very badly affected by Brexit. You're very lucky to have the privilege to not have to worry and see it all as simply entertainment...
Upvote
0
T
The Byre
200 pages of circular nonsense! Whoopee! A series of example after example of the danger to oneself of the illusion of knowledge.
According to the Sunday Times cover story, the legal advice that the government is trying to hide tells her that the so-called 'deal' (in reality a proposal) leaves the UK at the cusp of leaving, but with the EU dictating terms of final exit - i.e. a 'Norway' in all but name.
As Hughie Green used to say "It's make-your-mind-up time!" The Maybot 'deal' leaves the UK with three options - (1) crash out and crash the economy in the process; (2) stay in, but call it Brexit; (3) stay in and call it staying in! Pick one!
As for May herself - Some people cause happiness wherever they go; others whenever they go. She may have no enemies, but she is intensely disliked by her friends!
Some things are just too important to be taken seriously! I am finding it very entertaining to watch Briton in absolute uproar over an issue that does not even get onto the inside pages of the newspapers of other countries. The sad fact for the British is that nobody else cares!
According to the Sunday Times cover story, the legal advice that the government is trying to hide tells her that the so-called 'deal' (in reality a proposal) leaves the UK at the cusp of leaving, but with the EU dictating terms of final exit - i.e. a 'Norway' in all but name.
As Hughie Green used to say "It's make-your-mind-up time!" The Maybot 'deal' leaves the UK with three options - (1) crash out and crash the economy in the process; (2) stay in, but call it Brexit; (3) stay in and call it staying in! Pick one!
As for May herself - Some people cause happiness wherever they go; others whenever they go. She may have no enemies, but she is intensely disliked by her friends!
Upvote
0
- Original Poster
- #3,983
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46415574
This two-vote strategy in the Commons really is hypocrisy on steroids.
Refuse the idea of a second referendum after almost a three year gap since the last slim decision, with much more known and much since changed, but entertain the idea of a second commons vote on the exact same deal with a gap of only a few weeks - if that.
If a referendum on the deal is somehow an attack on democracy, then this is a far greater attack on parliamentary democracy and sovereignty.
I actually have no qualms with it personally. If MPs change their mind, they change their mind. Not giving people the opportunity to express that is inherently undemocratic. But if this is acceptable in the Commons, it's equally acceptable in the public domain.
This two-vote strategy in the Commons really is hypocrisy on steroids.
Refuse the idea of a second referendum after almost a three year gap since the last slim decision, with much more known and much since changed, but entertain the idea of a second commons vote on the exact same deal with a gap of only a few weeks - if that.
If a referendum on the deal is somehow an attack on democracy, then this is a far greater attack on parliamentary democracy and sovereignty.
I actually have no qualms with it personally. If MPs change their mind, they change their mind. Not giving people the opportunity to express that is inherently undemocratic. But if this is acceptable in the Commons, it's equally acceptable in the public domain.
Upvote
0
It does get reported upon in other countries. It's not a particularly big news item for other nations because the effect of Brexit upon the UK would be far more profound than on any other singular nation; the fact is we need them far more than they need us.
Your unwavering certainty over Brexit not taking place is interesting. Would Brexit be off the cards if nobody had bothered opposing the lies and corruption of the referendum? If the Remain campaigners hadn't spent their time putting pressure on the government? If there hadn't been three-quarters of a million people marching for a People's Vote? If the government could look at the apathy and apparent indifference of a nation and decide that since nobody has said anything they can do what they want?
But 2 and 3 are vastly different outcomes.
Upvote
0
What is acceptable in the commons isn't the same as public domain. Here we only have the voting powers that parliament allows us outside of the local and general elections.
We also don't have the protections or the risks that exist in parliament.
Another possibility besides a referendum is for a new general election. Which parties will campaign on Brexit? At the moment Conservatives and Labour are BOTH in favour of Brexit. Their differences are in support of the deal or their party leader - neither party leader has control of the party MPs on the upcoming vote.
Upvote
0
See, I keep hearing all this stuff about how 'we know so much more now', and 'yeah but it's definitely the REAL facts this time', when in reality it's just more of the same old guesswork guff.
The 'poor and vulnerable' turned out and voted in just the same numbers as any other group in the referendum - what are they stupid? Don't they know what's good for them?
How very dare they! how dare they be swayed by the lies & deceit spun by leave and yet remain so ignorant of the gospel facts paid out by the remain camp. Well that'll never do will it!
I am lucky yes. My little business positively thrived from 2008 onwards. Nobody I know lost their job or house. There's a sickness in this country and it's called 'doom and gloom,' - you may have heard of it or even suffered from it yourself?
Life's what you make it, you won't notice any difference if we stay or leave and you don't need to bang the drum for the poor vulnerables either, they'll be just fine
Upvote
0
Well Yay for you and your mates. While you ignore the disabled and those on low incomes who have suffered and continue to suffer appalling hardship. Including people dieing because of the appalling policies of this governemnt, and the remainder who are already surviving only on charity and whose situation will get worse under Brexit. Lets all just ignore them, because you and those you know are fine. Zippity de doo
Upvote
0
So how many of each group has died as a result of the policies of this government?
Which particular policies?
How many survive only on charity?
Do you know for certain those groups situations will get worse under Brexit? How will they get worse? Did those groups vote to leave? Remain?
Upvote
0
- Original Poster
- #3,990
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46419790
It's true, of course. And quite likely to end up that way.
A free trade deal with the EU, however comprehensive it may be, doesn't solve the Irish border issue. As it stands, nothing except a customs union, with aligned regulations and customs procedures, allows two countries to share a completely open border.
This idea of putting a backstop in place to find another way is the can being kicked down the road. They're hoping the impossible somehow becomes possible with a sudden stroke of genius, which is pretty unlikely.
There are "benefits" to this deal, but there's a good chance we'll be tied to the EU without the ability to have a say. The country therefore needs to make the tough decision on whether to have a partial Brexit with reduced authority, or no Brexit at all.
Those wanting a clean Brexit shouldn't vent their anger at the EU. They should vent it at the people responsible for suggesting this was ever an option in the first place. May is partially responsible for this, as her mentions of "no deal" to pressure the EU during the deal negotiations have given a false sense of what the available options are.
It's true, of course. And quite likely to end up that way.
A free trade deal with the EU, however comprehensive it may be, doesn't solve the Irish border issue. As it stands, nothing except a customs union, with aligned regulations and customs procedures, allows two countries to share a completely open border.
This idea of putting a backstop in place to find another way is the can being kicked down the road. They're hoping the impossible somehow becomes possible with a sudden stroke of genius, which is pretty unlikely.
There are "benefits" to this deal, but there's a good chance we'll be tied to the EU without the ability to have a say. The country therefore needs to make the tough decision on whether to have a partial Brexit with reduced authority, or no Brexit at all.
Those wanting a clean Brexit shouldn't vent their anger at the EU. They should vent it at the people responsible for suggesting this was ever an option in the first place. May is partially responsible for this, as her mentions of "no deal" to pressure the EU during the deal negotiations have given a false sense of what the available options are.
Upvote
0
Tied to the EU without a say? That sounds like an external country with a trade deal. Anything we do that isn't remaining in the EU will mean we no longer have a say. We leave partly, we leave fully, we leave and have a trade deal, we leave with bitter words on each side and court action against each other for money owed - each of those we don't have a say in the EU after we leave. And while we are leaving they don't have to listen to us regarding internal EU matters.
Upvote
0
- Original Poster
- #3,992
There are levels of what kind of "say" countries can have. In this case we would remain in a customs union and have to follow all of the EU's customs rules and regulations, but without any say in them as we currently have now.
There are also rumours circulating that this backstop will mean the UK can't strike independent trade deals on its own. Apparently this is legal advice provided to the Government that they're trying to keep under wraps.
May's comments today really sum things up:
The politicians are trying to honour the referendum result, but they simply aren't going to do it in a way that causes severe self-harm and threatens the Good Friday Agreement. Nor is there any kind of mandate to do that, for that matter.
It's a shame there wasn't more honesty about this when the decision was made, but that's what happens when we over-simplify a grossly complicated topic and then both sides just say whatever they can to win.
Upvote
0
T
The Byre
I've just come out of a meeting to decide whether a source of future revenue is to be assigned to our German or our UK company. We decided that for the time being, it has to be Germany! That means we shall be paying German taxes and the profits can be used to develop the German company.
OK, that is not a major deal, but it is one of thousands and thousands of little decisions and movements that spell slow decline by a thousand cuts, all made by businesses large and small.
It is not Brexit itself that causes the problems, but the blithering incompetence of the UK government and the uncertainty that their incompetence is creating. I just cannot get German businesses to take doing business with the UK seriously any more.
OK, that is not a major deal, but it is one of thousands and thousands of little decisions and movements that spell slow decline by a thousand cuts, all made by businesses large and small.
It is not Brexit itself that causes the problems, but the blithering incompetence of the UK government and the uncertainty that their incompetence is creating. I just cannot get German businesses to take doing business with the UK seriously any more.
Upvote
0
T
The Byre
2 is 'Norway' and 3 is 'remain'.
And they marched over the Iraq war - and what good that that do?
(And just for the fun of it, this government is doing the same - ignoring the marches and hiding the legal advice that states the blindingly obvious!)
It isn't the people protesting or pointing at lies that were told - governments ignore reality all the time. I've had to deal with politicians - they just blunder on regardless, no matter how misguidedly stupid their ideas really are! I listed earlier several well-known fallacies and government initiatives doomed to failure that politicians just adopt as policy. Their stupidity is truly amazing!
Britain cannot leave Europe (other than 'Norway' which is not leaving at all!) because it is economically impossible, constitutionally impossible and physically impossible.
I do feel sorry for the Brexiteers, as they were promised that Britain will be leaving the EU. They are now being offered this self-styled 'deal' that gives the EU the final say on the terms under which the UK leaves. That is like getting a Christmas present of a large bottle of vintage single malt whisky, only to find that inside the box. instead of whisky, there's a dog-turd!
Upvote
0
That was always the case. But the consensus since the referendum was that it was all about "doing a deal". I remember the discussions here two years ago and almost every poster said it was a question of striking a deal. I said that it was not like that. It was merely housekeeping. Working out the bill and then leave by the terms the EU dictated. The attitude of the consensus could be compared to leaving a club like a golf club but instead of following the procedure for leaving set out by the club (in their constitution), handing in your key, membership card or whatever, you went up to the membership secretary and said that you wanted to negotiate a deal. You wanted to still use the club bar and have a discount on fees for playing the occasional game of golf. After all the club does not want to turn down a bit of trade......etc. Things do not happen like that. The EU is big club and we were always going to be leaving by their rules.
Last edited:
Upvote
0
Exactly. However we did not have to agree to them. There were several treaties signed by our government since we joined the Common Market in 1973. Other countries had referendums before signing Maastricht, Lisbon etc. Maybe if The Byre's prediction comes true and we have to stay in Hotel California even after we have checked out or if we even have to go with our tails between our legs and ask them to take us back, we will not sign anything again so quickly.
Upvote
0
Latest Articles
-
What I Wish I'd Known Before Using AI in My BusinessSomewhere between the headlines promising AI will transform everything...- Ozzy
- Updated:
-
Is AI Making the Internet Worse?It started with a comment about music. @JEREMY HAWKE , a courier...
- Ozzy
- Updated:
-
The AI Divide: What UKBF Members Really Think in 2026Every few months on UK Business Forums, a thread appears that refuses...
- Ozzy
- Updated:
-
When the Algorithm Gets It Wrong: What eBay's AI Moderation Problem Tells Us About Platform RiskA thread appeared on UKBF this week that, on the surface, looks like a...
- Ozzy
- Updated:
-
Should you crowdfund? A framework for UK founders in 2026Three articles into a series on what crowdfunding actually costs, the...
- Ozzy
- Updated: