What is this so called soft exit

[Chris Ashdown]

We keep hearing this statement but nobody says how it can come about

The remaining 27 countries have always stated that the UK will never get special treatment without following the rules of Free movement of people and staying under the control of the European courts

So no matter what we want basically unless we do a Norway, but maybe on better terms the whole thing is a waste of discussion and its already been solved, it does not and will not change it's IN or OUT and the only discussion is tariff prices

 

[KM-Tiger]

Nobody knows what "soft Brexit" means.

https://order-order.com/2017/06/20/soft-and-hard-brexit-terms-obsolete/

 

[The Byre]

We keep hearing this statement but nobody says how it can come about
The remaining 27 countries have always stated that the UK will never get special treatment without following the rules of Free movement of people and staying under the control of the European courts
So no matter what we want basically unless we do a Norway, but maybe on better terms the whole thing is a waste of discussion and its already been solved, it does not and will not change it's IN or OUT and the only discussion is tariff prices

That's exactly what I've been shouting from the rooftops all the bloody time!

 

[Clinton]

That's exactly what I've been shouting from the rooftops all the bloody time!

Really? The message I've been hearing is that Brexit is a bad, bad idea and that we shouldn't do it (never mind that this question has already been decided). And that Britain can't survive outside of the EU and that we don't realise how difficult life will be if we leave. And that trade will collapse and that the sky will fall on our heads.

Oh, yes, and that the (all important!) man on the street in Brussels doesn't give a damn about what's happening with respect Brexit.

The remaining 27 countries have always stated that the UK will never get special treatment without following the rules of Free movement of people and staying under the control of the European courts...

That is why there is no point discussing it, we should just go already.

Yet some people are clutching at straws, arguing that the Referendum was non-binding, that there are technical flaws with the Article 50 notice we served etc etc. And (deluded) EU officials are still maintaining, in press conferences and speeches, that they hope the UK will change its mind.

I don't know what bit they don't get. The Referendum is over, the government is committed to implementing the result, the polls now say that 69%, not 52%, want to leave. The matter has been decided!

We may not like it. Europe, the UK, and humanity will be poorer if we leave.

But we are going.

And if the government tried to backtrack on the departure ... there would be hell to pay!

 

[The Byre]

Oh really! What I have been saying is that the choice is between stay (i.e. Norway) or go (WTO).

What we shall get is almost certainly 'Norway', but hey! Let's hope for the chaos of a WTO throw-out!

The message I've been hearing is that Brexit is a bad, bad idea and that we shouldn't do it (never mind that this question has already been decided). And that Britain can't survive outside of the EU and that we don't realise how difficult life will be if we leave.

Parliament has passed no resolution or act to leave the EU. Once people realise just what will really hit them under a WTO rules exit, things will change.

So far, all we have seen is a massive fall in the pound, followed by a comedy of errors in Whitehall, with the PM now a figure of ridicule and/or pity.

It's a bit like the period directly after Britain declared war on Germany - nothing happened and we had the 'Phoney War' - well now we have the Phoney Brexit. All we have had is the threat by Goldman Sachs, Airbus and others to close down their UK operations, but no guns have been fired.

if the government tried to backtrack on the departure ... there would be hell to pay!

I like sound of that! Yer, bring it on!

Better still, let's have a WTO exit. Suddenly goods will have to go through customs in sheds that we don't have, processed by officials that aren't there and pallets of mixed goods will have to be sorted in warehouses that we have not built.

Spain will close the boarder with Gibraltar (again) major manufacturers will quit the UK, food prices will rise even more, interest rates will go up, houses will enter negative equity and Britain will enter a depression.

So?

I'll wait 'till the Fat Lady sings!

 

[Mr D]

Whatever we end up with has to be agreed by 28 countries.
Bear in mind these countries often do not agree on other, less problematic issues.
We often enough have not agreed with other EU countries over matters.

It could come down to us being worse off to get some of what we want.

 

[KM-Tiger]

Spain will close the boarder with Gibraltar (again) major manufacturers will quit the UK, food prices will rise even more, interest rates will go up, houses will enter negative equity and Britain will enter a depression.

You forgot the plague of locusts .....

 

[Mr D]

You forgot the plague of locusts .....

These days should be thinking alternate protein source.
Add a bit of honey.

 

[Newchodge]

figure of ridicule and/or pity.

and hatred.

 

[Clinton]

So far, all we have seen is a massive fall in the pound...

Do get some perspective! The pound dropped a bit (about half of which it since recovered). But strange that people talk about the pound drop without mentioning that the BoE lowered interest rates the day after the Referendum. You, of all people, would know that there's a bit of a connection between the two.

Besides, when it comes to devaluation, there are some winners and some losers, but overall it's a good thing. That's why central bankers everywhere are trying to get the value of their currency down! Only a few can succeed in this. Japan and Britain have won this game.

BTW, what happened to inflation of 25%? Wasn't that what everyone was predicting after the drop in GBP? It didn't happen. Wait a few months, they said. We waited till the end of 2016. Wait a bit more they said, inflation takes time to build up a head. So we waited for the first anniversary of the Referendum. Have you checked where inflation is today? 25%? Are we nearly there yet?

I like sound of that! Yer, bring it on!

You don't seriously believe there's still a chance of Remain, do you? How do you see that happening? A new election and Lib Dems coming to power?

 

[Chris Ashdown]

Is it not strange that what we ever hear from the 27 other EU members comes down from the German Chancellor and her bank, France's President, A Swiss ex Prime minister and a Dutchman.

Whey do we never hear from the rest of the equal states, and what do they think on their own about brexit

Oop's sorry also Malta that centre of the EU

 

[Mr D]

We occasionally hear in the media (so take it as you wish) from Spain.
About an issue they have been raising for quite some time without accepting any permanent solution.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

Is it not strange that what we ever hear from the 27 other EU members comes down from the German Chancellor and her bank, France's President, A Swiss ex Prime minister and a Dutchman.

Whey do we never hear from the rest of the equal states, and what do they think on their own about brexit

Oop's sorry also Malta that centre of the EU

Because they're rarely asked by the journalists.

The journalists target who they want comments from and then choose to publish those comments.

There are actually lots of quotes from other leaders if you dig deep enough. Most of them just don't make it into the mainstream media.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

You don't seriously believe there's still a chance of Remain, do you? How do you see that happening? A new election and Lib Dems coming to power?

I think there's still a possibility, albeit a slim one.

What we must remember throughout these negotiations is that the Government, and the majority of MPs, don't want to leave.

Deep down, I suspect May wishes there was an easy way out so she doesn't have to deal with this mess.

The next 20 or so months of negotiations could make all the difference. As difficulties come to light, and solutions are found that the British public may not like, the tide of opinion could shift.

I think the greatest chance of it happening involves the public demanding a referendum on the final terms. That may not seem realistic now, but after all the passion of the referendum, are we, as the electorate, just going to sit by and accept whatever happens without wanting to have a say? I'd be surprised.

The possibility of this rises considerably if we don't cut all ties, because it might not just be the remainers wanting a final say. The hardline leavers could throw their hats into the ring as well.

Personally, I wonder if the situation will turn out similar to what's going on in the US with healthcare reform. Republicans may not be able to pass the bill, even though they have a majority, because some think it goes too far, while others think it doesn't go far enough.

We'll just have to wait and see if leave supporters, in the public and in Parliament, are as united as they seem to be.

 

[KM-Tiger]

The next 20 or so months of negotiations could make all the difference. As difficulties come to light, and solutions are found that the British public may not like, the tide of opinion could shift.

It's also possible that the EU itself could have a change of heart. I'm quite sure that if Cameron's renegotiation had produced a result we may well have voted to remain.

Interesting that Macron is now making noises about restricting free movement.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

It's also possible that the EU itself could have a change of heart. I'm quite sure that if Cameron's renegotiation had produced a result we may well have voted to remain.

Interesting that Macron is now making noises about restricting free movement.

I sympathise with the EU on these matters.

Their lives would be an order of magnitude easier, and Euroscepticism would be an order of magnitude smaller, if free movement didn't exist as it does today.

There are many other aspects of the EU people don't like, but they're relatively easy to tolerate. It's free movement that pushes most people over the red line.

But at the same time, the EU isn't just being stubborn for the sake of it. For an economic union to work effectively, there needs to be free movement of goods, services and people. It's as simple as that.

Anything else would be the equivalent of the UK stopping people from Manchester working in London, for example. It becomes two thirds of a single market.

That being said, I do think free movement of labour is a viable compromise. And truth be told, that will probably reduce migration numbers just as much as a clean exit would.

 

[MBE2017]

The UK public will call for the democratic decision to be actioned, we love our democracy above all else, and no political party is going to be stupid enough to go against the vast majority.

The referendum vote was close, but many remainders now want to get on with getting out of the EU now, to abide by the decision. Not sure why the country is so excitable, everything is a huge drama every day, time to take a chill pill, the UK will survive leaving the UK, as will the EU.

All these threats will work against the EU in the end, teach us a lesson, make sure no other country dares to consider leaving, end of the day everyone loses if a decent deal cannot be made, but like the EU, the UK has it's lines in the sand, without getting what was promised any UK gov will be punished at the next election, such as control of our own laws and borders.

Many who voted out did it knowing full well it could reduce the economic outlook for a decade or two, but still chose to do so for the other harder to quantify benefits of controlling our own destiny, a bit like going self employed for others.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

Many who voted out did it knowing full well it could reduce the economic outlook for a decade or two, but still chose to do so for the other harder to quantify benefits of controlling our own destiny, a bit like going self employed for others.

I wouldn't be so sure about that.

Tax increases would improve the financial position of the UK, but you would be hard pushed to find many people who would volunteer their own pay packet for it.

It's an amalgamation of various reasons, and they all influence each other. Sure, many people did value "sovereignty" highly in their decision. But just ask them how much they would sacrifice for it. £100 a year? £500? £1000? Would they accept the risk of losing their job?

People voted in this way because they didn't believe "project fear". And not only that, many thought they'd be better off. If someone believes a vote to leave will reduce immigration, give the UK more control and improve their job/wealth prospects, it becomes an easy decision for many people.

This set of polls from Lord Ashcroft is quite telling:

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/

More than two thirds (69%) of leavers, by contrast, thought the decision “might make us a bit better or worse off as a country, but there probably isn’t much in it either way”.

And just look at the socio-economic grades. The working class and unemployed voted to leave by a massive margin (64% of C2DEs).

Do you really think that poorer people, struggling to get by, voted in the belief that their outlook would get worse, but considered it a price worth paying?

Then there's this:

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...exit-worse-off-tim-farron-ukip-lib-dem-yougov

half of those who voted to leave the EU in June, including 62% of Labour voters and 59% of those in the north, would not be willing to lose any money at all as a consequence of Britain’s withdrawal.

All the data points to one thing: The vast majority voted in the belief that either things would get better, or little would change. In their minds, a leave vote wasn't going to sacrifice anything for them personally.

Let's hope they're right.

 

[The Byre]

Let's hope they're right.

Whatever happens, it'll be a mess - the sheer incompetence of this government (or the opposition, come to that!) will ensure that something somewhere will go horribly wrong.

At least, when we were full members of the EU, our various lunatic governments were subject to a degree of adult supervision.

Hard Brexit will end up with either exchanging Gibraltar for an autographed picture of Angela Merkel in the bath, or (with the 'other' lot) we'll get women-only gravity on weekends.

 

[KM-Tiger]

various lunatic governments were subject to a degree of adult supervision.

Yes, that's worked out really well for Greece ....

 

[Mirecart]

What i don't get, is the UK people have voted, and if no deal is achieved its still not a bad thing, it leaves an open agreement. The main issue is what if anything should the UK pay as an exit fee.

 

[Clinton]

the sheer incompetence of this government (or the opposition, come to that!) ...

Completely agree with you there.

Fortunately, the world standard for competence is just across the channel, in EU land, and we can watch and learn.

What our politicians can learn from them is how to be even more carefree with taxpayers' money. If you're spending billions of pounds I don't see the point in knowing where the money went or in being able to pass an audit. Nonsense like accountability should have gone out with the ark.

Women only gravity is more likely than the EU's accounts ever passing an audit. So much for competence.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

What i don't get, is the UK people have voted, and if no deal is achieved its still not a bad thing, it leaves an open agreement. The main issue is what if anything should the UK pay as an exit fee.

It's a terrible thing in many, many ways.

The exit fee is actually a drop in the ocean. Way down on the scale of importance.

In the worst-case scenario for the UK economy, we could easily lose ten times the exit cost every year for the next decade as a mixture of lost trade and government revenues.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

If you're spending billions of pounds I don't see the point in knowing where the money went or in being able to pass an audit. Nonsense like accountability should have gone out with the ark.

Oh, do stop spreading these myths. The EU audit has been passed OK for a number of years.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

I don't know what bit they don't get. The Referendum is over, the government is committed to implementing the result, the polls now say that 69%, not 52%, want to leave. The matter has been decided!

Would those be the polls which were to give May a 100 plus majority?
Depends on which polls. There are polls around which show a long term swing towards Remain.

 

[KM-Tiger]

The EU audit has been passed OK for a number of years.

It has and it hasn't. Although the auditors have passed the accounts, they continue to report material errors.

Though I understand the amounts involved are a small percentage of the total expenditure.

 

[Clinton]

The EU audit has been passed OK for a number of years.

Depends on what you mean by passed. If you or I did our business accounts to the same standard, we'd be headed for jail in very short order.

4.4% of the money (mostly money the EU gives to member states to spend on their behalf) is wasted, unaccounted for, spent in "violation of the rules" etc. Sometimes it's over 7%. I'm appalled at the money the UK government wastes, but the UK National Audit Office says fraud here is 0.02% of total expenditure.

To return to the point, there are many areas in which we shouldn't be taking lessons from the EU and @The Byre is not really on the right track when he talks about our UK politicians being incompetent and the EU ones being our saviours.

The truth probably is that politicians in member states aspire to reach a level of incompetence that will elevate them to a position on the EU stage!

 

[Deleted member 59730]

they continue to report material errors.

I think that one of those errors was when they sent a cheque for EU funding in Cornwall and the UK Government delayed their reciprocal contribution for two years.

4.4% of the money (mostly money the EU gives to member states to spend on their behalf) is wasted, unaccounted for, spent in "violation of the rules" etc. Sometimes it's over 7%. I'm appalled at the money the UK government wastes, but the UK National Audit Office says fraud here is 0.02% of total expenditure.

Those member states include the UK's handling of money intended for Cornwall and Wales.

Going back a few years, but practices have not changed, John Major was told of an amount totalling £48 million which had not come to Cornwall as promised. He vowed to take action. After 4 years he managed to free £8 million. In that one instance the fraud by the UK government was 500% not the official figure of .02%. The UKs big problem is that it believes it is ethical and honest when it is probably the most corrupt western democracy.

Kensington and Chelsea have millions in the bank and pay Council Taxpayers a rebate but use sub-standard cladding on tower blocks. That is what corruption does but we have yet to hear about the background deals done in the car park after Lodge meetings.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/b...untry-says-italian-mafia-expert-a3259296.html

 

[Chris Ashdown]

Kensington and Chelsea have millions in the bank and pay Council Taxpayers a rebate but use sub-standard cladding on tower blocks. That is what corruption does but we have yet to hear about the background deals done in the car park after Lodge meetings.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/b...untry-says-italian-mafia-expert-a3259296.html

That's what I like about some people , sod the fact's that may eventually come out, just blame someone or some organisation or company without any evidence to support your comments

 

[Mr D]

Kensington and Chelsea have millions in the bank and pay Council Taxpayers a rebate but use sub-standard cladding on tower blocks. That is what corruption does but we have yet to hear about the background deals done in the car park after Lodge meetings.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/b...untry-says-italian-mafia-expert-a3259296.html

Yes darn glad they have millions in the bank. Its a few months running costs.
If money from council tax, government etc is late then having money to pay the wages could be seen as a good thing. As of course is the ability to cover major problems without waiting for money to come in first.
Don't know about you but I'd be annoyed if a council had no reserves at all.

 

[Newchodge]

Yes darn glad they have millions in the bank. Its a few months running costs.
If money from council tax, government etc is late then having money to pay the wages could be seen as a good thing. As of course is the ability to cover major problems without waiting for money to come in first.
Don't know about you but I'd be annoyed if a council had no reserves at all.

That is true, but K&C have so much money that they give money back to the people who pay full council tax. Not to anyone who gets part of their tax paid by benefits, not to someone who needs it, but to the wealthy residents who can afford to pay the full amount.

 

[Mr D]

Great - that of course is a decision taken by the councillors in a meeting?
So long as they account for the money.

A rebate from the council must be almost as good as a rebate from the government.
Had those several times despite being able to afford to pay the tax they decided to send me money.
Turns out the civil service is really bad at paying the correct tax to HMRC.

 

[Mirecart]

Has an actual audit ever been done on the EU, and if so, where could you find a link to its outcome. If any??

 

[Clinton]

You can get the last audit report here.

Pro EU commentators make a big song and dance about this audit issue and claim that all talk about the EU failing its audit for 22 years is false because the EU did in fact pass audits.

Technically that could be considered correct in that the ECA (European Court of Auditors) signed off the accounts - they had little choice in the matter.

What many of the pro EU commentators may not be aware of is that the accounts were signed off with a reservation - an "adverse opinion on the regularity and legality of the payments".

That's not a footnote that's added lightly to any accounts! That is a mark of serious irregularity. If your company accounts had that note, you'd be in serious trouble! The UK, and other countries, have consistently objected to the accounts being passed in such a state i.e. with this note. The UK, Netherlands and Sweden have, year after year, voted against these flawed accounts being passed.

Bear in mind that the ECA is making this footnote consistently, every year, despite the EU trying to fiddle the ECA by appointing only hard core pro-EU members to its board.

 

[Mr D]

Trouble is they don't want to spend the time and money to make sure the accounts do fully pass audit without problems.
Too much to lose? Or a loophole to use themselves...?

 

[KM-Tiger]

That is what corruption does but we have yet to hear about the background deals done in the car park after Lodge meetings.

You mean the ones in Camden? Where flammable cladding was fitted by a Labour council during a Labout govt.

 

[quikshop]

I recommend picking up a copy (or downloading it if you have one of those new fangled mobile telephone devices) of Marta Andreasen's account of her time at the EU. The former Chief Accountant to the Commission's comments go the very nature of the politburo style organisation we're trying to free ourselves from.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

Elected as a Member of the European Parliament for the UK Independence Party (UKIP) in the 2009 election,

Says all you need to know. Wasn't it UKIP MEPs who have been cheating on expenses?

 

[Paul Norman]

I read all the discussion above with interest.

But just a moment. I assumed (dangerous) that those who voted Leave want a complete leave. Because any trade deal with Europe would involve significant compromise, and a level of submission to the EU commission?

I may be wrong about that, of course, and welcome clarity.

Just to be open - I did not vote to Leave. But if we believe that the referendum is to be actioned, as a principle, then we need to be sure we are clear what exactly is to be actioned.

 

[quikshop]

Elected as a Member of the European Parliament for the UK Independence Party (UKIP) in the 2009 election, Says all you need to know. Wasn't it UKIP MEPs who have been cheating on expenses?

Have you read Marta's book? It's a good read, and illuminating. Her track record is one of challenging vested interests both at the EU but prior to that the OECD, and no UKIP affiliation until after she'd been hounded out of the EU.

I forced myself to read Ken Livingston's autobiography last year, despite thinking the bloke a representation of the worst kind of socialism along with Kinnock... who as it happens gets a key role in Marta's book. It helps formulate a balanced view, you should try it