Does May want to win?

[Mr D]

Really? Would not think they will be making decisions on things other than what to vote for or against.
Like the other parties.

 

[Mr D]

Perhaps the alternative is a party who had tens of thousands killed last decade led by a leader who voted against his own party so many times you wonder what he is leading...
Politics appears to be a dirty business.

 

[Chris34]

If there is no other election and things carry on with the DUP's help, is it more likely we will now have a hard brexit? Am I right in thinking that if May comes back from the negotiations with a deal on offer and it gets voted down then that means there will be no deal and therefor the hard brexit, is that right?

 

[quikshop]

If there is no other election and things carry on with the DUP's help, is it more likely we will now have a hard brexit? Am I right in thinking that if May comes back from the negotiations with a deal on offer and it gets voted down then that means there will be no deal and therefor the hard brexit, is that right?

There is no such thing as a hard Brexit, its just Brexit. Parliament does and should have a vote on the final deal. If they reject it then the UK leaves the EU... which is what the British voted for.

Our currency devaluation already more than offsets the 10% WTO trade tariff costs for exporters, so in reality nothing much will change.

The worst possible outcome? The EU will impose a border levy as the US and most other countries do, so your week in Spain will cost £25 more per person.

 

[Mr D]

28 parliaments / governments get to vote on the final deal, any one of which can reject it?

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

If there is no other election and things carry on with the DUP's help, is it more likely we will now have a hard brexit? Am I right in thinking that if May comes back from the negotiations with a deal on offer and it gets voted down then that means there will be no deal and therefor the hard brexit, is that right?

More likely to be softer now, I'd say.

The DUP are pro-Brexit, but they have a softer stance than May and are keener for a more integrated relationship with the EU.

But the critical point here is the Irish border. The DUP are vehemently against a hard border between NI and ROI, and now they have a much stronger hand in the Brexit negotiations and Parliament in general.

Unless May can satisfy the DUP regarding an Irish border solution, the DUP may go from being May's saviour to the biggest thorn in her side quite quickly.

Brexit is completely up in the air now in terms of the outcome. With May having over 120 pro-EU MPs in her ranks, and having to rely on the less predictable DUP for the slimmest of majorities, she has little control left.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

It depends on what the right wing press does. They might think that another GE will help the Tories.

I wouldn't throw away your stakeboards and banners yet.

 

[Mr D]

The party leaders of the larger parties don't seem to have much control of their MPs anyway.

 

[Mr D]

It depends on what the right wing press does. They might think that another GE will help the Tories.

I wouldn't throw away your stakeboards and banners yet.

And another election may result in no change. Are you going to change your vote in the next few weeks / months? Will others that you know change their vote in that time?

 

[Clinton]

It depends on what the right wing press does.

And the Russians, and the Russians. Don't forget that 'the right wing press' is ultimately controlled by Russian hackers (and their shape-shifting overlords)! Not to mention Postman Pat's cat - that bloody feline is at the root of a lot of the world's problems!

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

The funny thing about all this is that, while the UK is in political disarray, the EU has quietly got its affairs in order, managed to negotiate a position between 27 different countries, and is now sat patiently waiting for the UK to sort its own mess out.

This gets more embarrassing by the day. Strong and stable? The EU is showing us how that's done at the moment.

And on that note, why on earth did we trigger Article 50 in March and then proceed to spend the first three months of the two year process going through a GE and making zero progress in negotiations? I cannot get my head around why there was such a pointless rush.

It's almost like we want all of this to end badly.

 

[Newchodge]

And the Russians, and the Russians. Don't forget that 'the right wing press' is ultimately controlled by Russian hackers (and their shape-shifting overlords)! Not to mention Postman Pat's cat - that bloody feline is at the root of a lot of the world's problems!

Don't blame the cat. For one thing May hates cats and for another it is a black and white cat, and I am married to a geordie.

 

[Newchodge]

The funny thing about all this is that, while the UK is in political disarray, the EU has quietly got its affairs in order, managed to negotiate a position between 27 different countries, and is now sat patiently waiting for the UK to sort its own mess out.

This gets more embarrassing by the day. Strong and stable? The EU is showing us how that's done at the moment.

And on that note, why on earth did we trigger Article 50 in March and then proceed to spend the first three months of the two year process going through a GE and making zero progress in negotiations? I cannot get my head around why there was such a pointless rush.

It's almost like we want all of this to end badly.

Please read the first post on this thread, together with the title.

 

[Newchodge]

And another election may result in no change. Are you going to change your vote in the next few weeks / months? Will others that you know change their vote in that time?

Actually, many will. The lot who would not vote for Corbyn because of his unelectability. Those in Amber Rudd's constituency who realise they can get rid of her if they change their vote. Tactical voting is very much easier now, because people know what they are up against.

And even if people don't change their vote, there may have to be an election when Mayhem and her successor fail to pass any legislation.

 

[Mr D]

And if people don't change their vote and there is another election - changes what?
Can have half a dozen elections in a year if parliament agreed to it - bearing in mind each MP risks their job so its never going to be a certainty to pass a vote - but if not enough people change their vote (or start voting or stop voting) then nothing changes.
An MP elected with 10,000 majority still wins if 2000 change their mind in that area - has to be enough swing in an area.
Was watching the results for a few hours last night, some areas swung quite a bit - but a lot has happened in last 25 months.

 

[Mr D]

And the Russians, and the Russians. Don't forget that 'the right wing press' is ultimately controlled by Russian hackers (and their shape-shifting overlords)! Not to mention Postman Pat's cat - that bloody feline is at the root of a lot of the world's problems!

Please, its a multi racial cat and it doesn't have the thumb that some cats have on their paws.
That cat is a smokescreen for the cats who do plot to take over the world. While you look at him you ignore the other cats...

The ones in charge...
Taking over the world.

Just as soon as a tin opener is made that can be used by the thumb pawed cats... when they will get rid of most of the human slaves.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

Please read the first post on this thread, together with the title.

I don't think she's that smart, to be honest.

To me, this smacks of arrogance. The exact same arrogance when Cameron called the EU ref. They looked at the polls and thought they were invincible.

I really think that May believed she could do no wrong. That she could even put through some unpopular policies to gain a mandate for them with an impenetrable lead.

Mind you, yesterday a journalist mentioned via sources that May really didn't want another election, but she was talked into it by her aides. Either way, it's bad judgement.

 

[Newchodge]

And if people don't change their vote and there is another election - changes what?
Can have half a dozen elections in a year if parliament agreed to it - bearing in mind each MP risks their job so its never going to be a certainty to pass a vote - but if not enough people change their vote (or start voting or stop voting) then nothing changes.
An MP elected with 10,000 majority still wins if 2000 change their mind in that area - has to be enough swing in an area.
Was watching the results for a few hours last night, some areas swung quite a bit - but a lot has happened in last 25 months.

I agree that a further election may not change the position, but that is our system and we cannot change it unless we havea government with a decent majority. Are we becoming Italy?

 

[Newchodge]

One of the things I hate about politicians in general and May in particular is dishonesty. She said that if she lost 6 seats Corbyn would be prime minister. She lost 12 so why doesn't she step aside? Basic dishonesty.

 

[UKSBD]

I wonder how Sturgeon feels today?

If it was not for her pushing for another referendum so quickly, the Conservatives would probably have 10 fewer seats and even a pact with the DUP wouldn't have been enough to save them

Hope she is top of Theresa May's Christmas card list.

 

[Mr D]

One of the things I hate about politicians in general and May in particular is dishonesty. She said that if she lost 6 seats Corbyn would be prime minister. She lost 12 so why doesn't she step aside? Basic dishonesty.

If I were her I'd have dumped the entire mess in his lap and walked away. Outside the UK.
She may still do that. She has to get a Queens Speech approved...

 

[Mr D]

I agree that a further election may not change the position, but that is our system and we cannot change it unless we havea government with a decent majority. Are we becoming Italy?

I do a mean beef and gravy with roasties pizza.
Not quite into the wine so much, and my ravioli only just fits onto a dinner plate (1 ravioli).
Cannot quite see us becoming Italy.

Can we become Hong Kong instead? Got a nice recipe for rat somewhere in the loft.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

http://www.bbc.com/news/40232154

The atmosphere in Downing Street under Theresa May is "pretty toxic" and its operation "dysfunctional", a former aide of the prime minister has said.

Katie Perrior, who served as director of communications for 10 months, said she and others were not able to "speak freely" and her advice was not heeded.

She accused the PM's chiefs of staff Fiona Hill and Nick Timothy of treating ministers with a lack of respect.

Strong and stable.

 

[The Byre]

Sooner or later, there will have to be a vote of no confidence in The House, just as there was one in '79 that brought down the Callahan government. It was proposed by one Margret Thatcher and Callahan lost by just one vote and an election had to be called - which he lost.

Then, it was a motley collection of minor Northern Irish parties and the SNP that decided the issue - so get ready to toddle down to the polling booth again!

I am so certain, because May is extremely of extremely weak character and has shown that she is totally unable to stand up to people that seek to manipulate her, such as Hill and Timothy, both of whom have now resigned. She even has had to reinstate all the old cabinet, for fear of upsetting them.

Hard Brexit is now completely off the table and Brexit itself may just never happen, hard soft, or just fluffy!

 

[Mr D]

The Byre - would that happen now the policy on elections was changed a few years back?
Is it a simple majority which the non-partners do not have? Or two thirds majority?
And be risking their jobs - will new MPs vote to risk losing their jobs so soon after getting them?
One area I hear the winner has just a 20 vote majority - will they want to risk that?

 

[The Byre]

The opposition is bursting to find an opportunity to table a motion of no confidence. Keeping May in place improves their chances, as she does not have the authority to prevent Tory back benchers and the Scottish Tories from vetoing the DUP deal. She is the captain of a ship in name only at the moment.

She reminds me of both Callahan and Heath, weak and indecisive prime ministers, both of whom ended up, staggering around the political battlefield, waving white flags, looking for somebody to surrender to.

Now she seeks to do a deal with the DUP! Is she mad?

Just remember who the DUP are! A murderous collection of racist, xenophobic, homophobic, religious bigots and fanatics, founded in a tin shed by a rabble-rousing lunatic who called himself Reverend and Doctor, when he was neither.

 

[Newchodge]

The two thirds majority is to call an election. A vote of no confidence is a simple majority. But a vote of no confidence does not necessarily mean an election - she could try and brazen it out. I seem to remember one of the other weak and wobbly prime ministers did not call an election after a first vote of no confidence, but had to eventually. I expect the Byre will know.

 

[The Byre]

It is a convention of parliament that a successful motion of no confidence must result in an election. The two-thirds thing came in with the Fixed Term Parliament Act in 2011.

Under the 2011 Act, the government now has 14 days to table and pass a motion of confidence, if a motion of no confidence is passed.

Remember that a 'loss of supply' (i.e. failure to pass a money bill such as The budget) or the Queen's Speech, are also both motions of confidence. Now, since 2011, the government has 14 days to rectify such an event and gain support, either by convincing those that vote against the bill (rejigging their alliances!) or altering the bill itself, so that it may pass.

I seem to remember one of the other weak and wobbly prime ministers did not call an election after a first vote of no confidence, but had to eventually. I expect the Byre will know.

You may be thinking of the so-called 'People's Budget' of 1909, proposed by two young radical Liberals, known then as 'The Terrible Twins' who sought for the first time in British history to redistribute wealth by taxing rich estates and high incomes. For the first time in 200 years, the Lords rejected the bill and the stand-off lasted a whole year.

The issue was only resolved fully with the Parliament Act of 1911, which established the dominance of the Lower House.

The 'Twins' were Lloyd George (Chancellor) and Winston Churchill (Board of Trade) and they served under Asquith.

(This is like being back, writing essays for my economics interim exams!)

 

[Deleted member 59730]

You may be thinking of the so-called 'People's Budget' of 1909

Didn't know you were that old!

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

I am so certain, because May is extremely of extremely weak character and has shown that she is totally unable to stand up to people that seek to manipulate her, such as Hill and Timothy, both of whom have now resigned. She even has had to reinstate all the old cabinet, for fear of upsetting them.

I'm starting to get that impression as well.

She has positioned herself as the Iron Lady Mk 2, but it's becoming evident that she can be manipulated quite easily.

There was even word from a source that May didn't want this snap election at all, but she was talked into it by her aides. I wasn't sure about the credibility of this at first, but from what we've seen today, it makes a lot of sense now.

 

[Newchodge]

Didn't know you were that old!

Me or him? (Preparing to be offended).

I have just looked it up, as TB says, if there is a vote of no confidence they have 14 days to put it right and get a vote of confidence over the same issue or call an election. Prior to 2011 they had to resign and always did if there is a vote of no confidence, although i wasn't enshrined in law.

 

[The Byre]

as TB says,

Well, of course it is as TB says! (Though I did manage to fail my 'Constitutional Law and Politics' exam and had to do a 'lap-of-honour' - I got the remark "The candidate knew too much, yet understood too little.")

 

[Mr D]

Next month another GE anyone?

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

Next month another GE anyone?

It depends. I think it will go one of two ways:

1). The Conservatives and DUP will not be able to negotiate an agreement. They'll reach a stalemate and then another GE will be triggered quite soon.

2). They'll succeed in forming an agreement. But then conflicts will start to arise when it comes to putting through bills before everything collapses and another GE is called. In this scenario, it would probably be within the next 6-12 months, as both sides will quickly learn whether they're amicable bedmates.

It all depends on whether they have to learn this the hard way or not.

Of course, there's also the possibility that they'll get along fine and work together like a well-oiled machine. Personally though, I'd be surprised if that happens. The Conservative Party will be keeping a close eye on how this Tory/DUP team impacts electorate opinion on the run up to 2022. If things start to go south, it will become a case of damage limitation.

 

[Newchodge]

The last lot passed a law that the Scottish and N Irish MPs at Westminster cannot vote on matters that are devolved to their Parliaments, and so affect only England and Wales. (Not sure about the Wales bit, but England and Wales share all laws, but not the other 2).

The first time there is a bill that is covered by this, the DUP cannot bail out The CONservatives, and they will fail, closely followed by a vote of no confidence. I expect an election in October.

 

[Mr D]

Or could do what pretty much every government does and get some of the other parties MPs to vote with them.

Even with a whip not every MP votes with his party leadership. Note a Mr Corbyn there...

 

[Newchodge]

Or could do what pretty much every government does and get some of the other parties MPs to vote with them.

Even with a whip not every MP votes with his party leadership. Note a Mr Corbyn there...

Yes, but you always have some MP's off sick (I remember seeing ambulances turning up at the House of Commons and MP's being taken in on stretchers to vote) and some who can't be bothered to vote. And the Tories don't have many friends.

 

[Mr D]

If it's those who would vote against her off sick etc then that benefits her, if it's those who would support her that benefits her opposition.

Neither labour and it's friends nor the conservatives and it's friends can get the votes by party to force anything.
There are what? 643 sitting MPs?
Conservatives have on their own 318? And DUP is 10 MPs.
The other groups can manage 315?

Would not take much within parliament for votes to be won or lost.
Who knows, Corbyn may even vote with his party occasionally.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

If it's those who would vote against her off sick etc then that benefits her, if it's those who would support her that benefits her opposition.

Neither labour and it's friends nor the conservatives and it's friends can get the votes by party to force anything.
There are what? 643 sitting MPs?
Conservatives have on their own 318? And DUP is 10 MPs.
The other groups can manage 315?

Would not take much within parliament for votes to be won or lost.
Who knows, Corbyn may even vote with his party occasionally.

Hence why a hung Parliament backed by the DUP is such an unstable and generally ridiculous situation.

The crux is that the largest party needs to be able to form an effective government. By effective, it means that they can pass the vast majority of bills on their agenda and actually govern as they were elected to do.

This situation throws a giant spanner in the works. With a workable majority (as a stand-alone party or via a coalition), it's not just about the governing party having enough votes to cross the line. It's also about having leeway. With enough overhead, some of her own MPs could abstain or vote against her and it wouldn't be problematic in most cases.

Now though, there's a huge risk of bills grinding to a halt if even 3 MPs disagree. And that's far more likely to happen when May is relying on 10 of those MPs from an outsider party which doesn't see eye-to-eye on many thorny issues.

Some MPs from the other parties could certainly vote along with the Conservatives. Perhaps even Labour MPs. It does happen if there's broad bipartisan support for a bill.

However, there are many bills likely to crop up in future where there will be a huge partisan divide.

One good example is the Finance Bill of the annual budget. If more spending cuts are proposed, that will easily be rejected by every MP of every party other than the Conservatives and DUP. Except now, the Government will have to bend to the will of the DUP, including more spending for Northern Ireland, to gain their support.

And then there's the whole issue of Brexit. Remember, over 120 Conservative MPs are pro-EU. The risk of rebellion over the particulars of the deal is massive.

That's one of the main reasons she held this snap election. Even with her previous majority, getting all of the Conservative MPs behind the bills to pass them would have been a headache. Now it's going to be a nightmare.

And in a strange twist of fate, the kingmakers are a Northern Irish party, where the Irish border (soon to be an external border with the EU) will be an extremely sensitive issue for them.

If the border solution isn't exactly how the DUP wants it, they will make May's situation impossible.

 

[Mr D]

Yes, be nice if could push through what they wanted.
Strangely the voters decided such that no one party has sufficient votes to get stuff done as they wish.

Just means plenty of stuff won't get done. Be hard enough for Queens Speech and Budgets to get voted through - and each perhaps altered enough to get some support from other MPs.

Still, it may delay austerity until need bigger cuts.