It's not over yet - EU

threenine

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It matters because he has a poor attitude, like its the first time in his life that something has changed. I know plenty of elderly people and myself (being middle aged) that love change and look forward to it, everyone loves change they just don't want to admit they are scared when its actually exciting.

There is nothing wrong with change, but change because of change sake is pointless.
 
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That's rather patronising!. I know they are part of the Commonwealth. You entirely missed the point I was making about the world being a whole lot bigger than just the EU.

As a bonus, we don't have to pay a hefty membership fee, accept their political rule, or accept free movement of people.
 
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Shirley obviously doesn't know any broke and unskilled young Brits who have gone cheaply into the EU for work. She thinks they can all afford the fare to Australia.

I met a young woman the other day, daughter of a friend, who was a total drop out at school. Didn't look like she would ever amount to anything. She went and worked as a chambermaid in a French ski resort and then did similar summer work in Spain. She is now fluent in 2 foreign languages, is self assured and has the confidence to live her life as she wants. The EU was her big opportunity.
 
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KM-Tiger

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The EU was her big opportunity.
People worked in Europe before the EU, and I'm sure they will in the future. If the host country needs labour they will issue work permits. That's how it used to work and it can again.

And I have an American friend whose daughter has spent some time working in France and Italy. USA is not in the EU but it seemed to be no problem.
 
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KM-Tiger

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Another question: hypothetically, let's say things do go south for the UK.

Is there any price you would not be prepared to pay for large-scale freedom from EU requirements?
A hypothetical answer is that our opening position is that free movement of people is a redline. I think it's highly unlikely that we would ever get into a position where compromising on that would be a solution.

Sure there are going to be bumps and difficulties ahead, but we do have friends in the world, and particularly in the Commonwealth.

A quite genuine concern has been our lack of people to negotiate trade deals, given that we haven't for 40 odd years.

Step up New Zealand, who have offered a solution to that.
 
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MartCactus

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People worked in Europe before the EU, and I'm sure they will in the future. If the host country needs labour they will issue work permits. That's how it used to work and it can again.

Have you ever gone through a visa process? I worked in the UAE, and I now live in the USA. Visa processes are long, complicated and expensive. So much for freeing us from red tape.

My brother worked in Germany and now runs a company in Portugal - no problem with having to get a visa for him, his wife, or his kids. He went to Germany straight out of Uni when the job situation in the UK for engineers was terrible (1990s). An excellent German company hired him as a graduate - very hard to get visas for graduates with no experience. He went from being a burden on the state (dole) in the UK to getting a job and experience in Germany. Europe is such a gift for those willing to (as Norman Tebbit said) get on their bikes and look for work.

Where my folks live is a leafty part of Hampshire, with lots of jobs. You see all these people up North on the dole, but Hampshire is full of Poles and others who've done what Norman Tebbit urged, and got on their bikes to find work. Brits sit around up North whining that there are no jobs down t'pit any more. That is the real reason why the country is circling the drain.

While running our company in the UK we were able to hire (in addition to Brits) Poles, Italians, etc - all excellent software developers. They paid tax in the UK, and had very little need for social services, healthcare etc as they were young. In return the UK has shipped 1.3 million Brits to the EU, mainly older people to Spain, who clog up its health system, rather than ours. That is why Britain was booming relative to the continent - we imported young healthy workers and exported old, economically inactive people who required more health care spending. All that is going to end, and no one seems to be taking into account the financial hit of that. The pressure on our health service is going to be immense (this is why the BMA backed Remain).
 
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MartCactus

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I met a young woman the other day, daughter of a friend, who was a total drop out at school. Didn't look like she would ever amount to anything. She went and worked as a chambermaid in a French ski resort and then did similar summer work in Spain. She is now fluent in 2 foreign languages, is self assured and has the confidence to live her life as she wants. The EU was her big opportunity.

Of course these aren't the people who voted Leave. The EU was a fantastic opportunity for those with some get up and go. But some people prefer to sit around on the dole moaning about how all the foreigners have taken their jobs or council houses or whatever. Its always someone else's fault.
 
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MartCactus

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In assessing a UK outside the EU, its illustrative to go back to why we joined in the first place. See this for example, that assesses the economic decline of the UK between 1945 and 1972, and the stabilisation in our position having joined

http://voxeu.org/article/britain-s-eu-membership-new-insight-economic-history

We joined because our GDP compared to our European neighbours was consistently declining. Basic economics is that big markets are good, and more efficient. Its why the US grew so powerful in the postwar period. We've done very well out of the EU and free movement, as I've explained above.

I've no doubt that we'll survive outside the EU. But if we choose to be outside the Single Market (by rejecting the 4 freedoms, including movement) we'll have to accept that we will be poorer. And that's fine, its a decision many seem happy to accept - that we'll be a poorer country but with fewer foreigners. I live in the USA now, in the South, and people seem to embrace a foreigner moving to their country for a better life. I'm sad that many in my old home don't, but that's life, and I'm sure that in a generation we'll be desperate to join, just as we were before 1972. I'm British, but I'm a proud European too, and no referendum will change that.
 
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I tink it is too simplistic and driven by the media to equate wanting to leave the EU with wanting to restrict immigration.

Even a few in the Leave campaign were clearly saying having control of the borders means being able to decide, it does not mean that we will close it to EU or other nationalities.

I accept that a lot of rhetoric was about migration, but I for one did not vote because of that.
 
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Of course these aren't the people who voted Leave. The EU was a fantastic opportunity for those with some get up and go. But some people prefer to sit around on the dole moaning about how all the foreigners have taken their jobs or council houses or whatever. Its always someone else's fault.

So you think it's only the lazy unemployed layabouts with no get up and go that voted Leave? Amazing. The government have been lying about unemployment figures then. There must be 17m of them!
 
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KM-Tiger

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See this for example, that assesses the economic decline of the UK between 1945 and 1972, and the stabilisation in our position having joined

http://voxeu.org/article/britain-s-eu-membership-new-insight-economic-history
Interesting article, thank you.

There is no doubt that our economic position now compared to the 1970s has improved. Part of that could be due to EU membership, but the article doesn't take into account the huge political change that began in 1979 and continued through the 80s.
 
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II live in the USA now, in the South, and people seem to embrace a foreigner moving to their country for a better life. I'm sad that many in my old home don't, but that's life, and I'm sure that in a generation we'll be desperate to join, just as we were before 1972. I'm British, but I'm a proud European too, and no referendum will change that.

Reminds me of an occasion when I was crossing the road in Las Vegas. Halfway across the lights changed to "Don't Walk" and four of us strangers were stranded on an island in the middle. In the age before the lights changed again we discovered that I was an Englishman and the other three were a Welshman. Scotsman and an Irishman. The Scotsman said, "there must be a joke here somewhere." We couldn't think of anything. And then the Irishman said, "Isn't it great that here we get called Europeans."

Says it all really.
 
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A quite genuine concern has been our lack of people to negotiate trade deals, given that we haven't for 40 odd years.

Step up New Zealand, who have offered a solution to that.

Many years ago I was instrumental in setting up a factoring company and in conjunction with a commercial lawyer we drafted a fairly substantial factoring agreement.

One of my colleagues left and set up a factoring company of his own. He later sold that company to Bibby but not before one of his colleagues left to set up yet another factoring company that is now known as Aldermore.

I was rather surprised when a potential client of mine sent me a copy of his factoring agreement with Bibby and I found it rather familiar. The same happened with the new factoring company as they had both taken my factoring agreement and basically just changed the name.

We won't be negotiating trade agreements from scratch as we already have blueprints in the form of the agreements that we are involved in. I'm sure that it won't be quite as simplistic as just changing the names but at least they will form an excellent framework to start off with.
 
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On the other hand, the UK might negotiate a different UK deal with the EU, of course the politicians will tell people we need to have access to the free market, but now the people will also hold them to account.

If you think remainers are angry, it is nothing compared to the brexit voters who have been portrayed as racists and too stupid to understand what they have voted for and why, even people on this forum have consistently posted how brexiters do not understand anything.

People can argue what the vote actually was about, and what it is not about, but 17.5 million people voted to regain control, and free movement of labour is not taking back control. Better to pay tariffs and have our own deal on better terms than cower before the EU.

All negotiations start with such preamble, we have two years to finalise things on proper terms.
 
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Newchodge

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    Trouble is that the exit campaigns stressed that there would be normal trade with Europe, expanding trade with the rest of the world, control of our borders (which was interpreted as not letting in a single soul who we did not want) recovery of our sovereignty, the end of nasty european laws we did not like and no money paid to the EU.

    That is what most of the 17.5 million people were told. I don't know if that's what they voted for.

    Boris Johnson has already said that what people voted for was getting rid of the European Court of Justice. That's it.

    What the final negotiations achieve is something I cannot predict. I can predict that it will not be what a vast majority of those who voted out, expected. Or wanted.
     
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    Scott-Copywriter

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    A hypothetical answer is that our opening position is that free movement of people is a redline. I think it's highly unlikely that we would ever get into a position where compromising on that would be a solution.

    This is where my opinion seems to differ from leave supporters.

    We all know politicians, and we know that those currently in power - those most likely to lead the next Government - appear to be quite open to free movement of labour. Some have said it explicitly, whilst others have said that single market access and even the right to live and work in the EU will be unaffected.

    As politicians, they'll know better than we do about the EU's red lines, especially regarding the founding principles which include free movement.

    We know that the leave politicians have lied, even if you didn't believe it yourself. Others did. The £350million, for example, was not only incorrect, but it only took a few days for more than one politician to state that this money would not go to the NHS when multiple pieces of literature said it would. This isn't new. Politicians have bent the truth for decades. No doubt the remain politicians did it as well.

    So we know that we need free movement for continued access to the single market, we know that this is a red line for the EU (they openly said it today), we know that retaining access to the single market is very high on the agenda for the politicians to be in power to keep the economic downturn to a minimum, and we know that they appear to be quite open to the idea of continued free movement of labour.

    Is it just me, or can anyone else see a situation brewing here which is going to cause a big conflict between the pro-leave Government and the pro-leave voters? It's laid out quite well here, I feel, as the approaches of Theresa May and Boris Johnson - with one of the two almost certainly becoming the next PM:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics...it-easy-entry-migrants-jobs-automatic-rights-

    The question is, factoring all of the above in, does anyone really trust the next Government to not advocate this watered-down immigration approach? Are many leave supporters, who can't even imagine this happening after all that's been said, not just sleepwalking into an exit agreement which is going to completely go against everything they thought they were voting for?

    And furthermore, is there anything the public can do about it? The next Government are likely to have the exit agreement signed, sealed and delivered before the General Election after that comes around.

    Perhaps the most worrying part of all of this, at least for me, is that such a scenario might push UKIP into a huge position of power with an influx of highly disgruntled leave voters.

    I suppose it depends how well the next Government keeps the technical aspects of the exit agreement under wraps and out of the spotlight. However surely most people, at some point, will see that immigration is still in the hundreds of thousands and then start to ask why.
     
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    You will appreciate I haven't read the whole of the thread, so may be treading old ground

    Firstly, anyone claiming to know what will happen is clearly talking nonsense. Even the experts are heavily caveats get their projections

    What we do know is that the worst possible state is uncertainty, which we are guaranteed for at least 2 months - this is already having some strange effects, for example on certain retail trades

    Moving forwards, personally I have absolutely no doubt that we can thrive and prosper outside the EU, albeit with some kind of associate membership. I also believe. That the EU will implode within a decade unless it seriously reforms

    In the next 2 years there are 2 key areas of risk

    1. Our ability to broker a serious and effective relationship with the EU (so that rules out Farage from the process) and to report accurately on key events. Obviously this can't start until article 50 is invoked.
    2. The reaction of the U.K. Public. This is the classic self fulfilling prophecy where the doom merchants will create a recession then, sadly, prAise themselves for priding it
    At this moment we are full members of the UE and will be for at least 2 years. Ultimately we will almost certainly be trading partners. Nearly all the big company shock headlines are caveated on this.

    Everyone has a right to be disappointed, perhaps even anfgry at the result. To use that as a weapon to destroy the economy is unforgivable.
     
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    There is still a massive Remain campaign being run by the government, main stream TV, and certain newspapers.

    We are still not getting any 'bad news' about the EU, or information about it's push towards a superstate or the steps being put in place to remove democracy and resistance from the EU people. Don't take my word for it, read the Treaties and the Five Presidents report. It's no secret, but for some reason it is never raised by politicians.

    We still hear nothing about the failing EU economies. Even TTIP, the refugee crisis and the succession of Turkey seems to be ignored. Leave won, so all the Leave arguments have been sidelined and publicity is deliberately being whipped up about the unfairness of the referendum, when the unfairness was heavily biased to the Remain campaign.

    Massive immigration is not helpful to our economy while we are in the EU/EEA. We will not benefit from the economic gains as the benefits will be passed to the EU and other members, but we will suffer from lower wages, reduced services, overcrowding, increased pollution, and homelessness. If the majority of people are not going to benefit from economic gains, then we may as well be poor and get back our freedom. If we had the government fully supporting us, we would be far better off in the long run, and have our sovereignty too, but they are still being deceitful. They are deliberately pushing out and discrediting the only person who is honest with the people about the EU (Farage).

    Mass immigration is essential to the EU vision of a superstate as this removes our identity and loyalty to our country, because it won't be 'our' country anymore. We will become like the Australian aborigines, and the American Indians, and some may say that is fair justice but to persuade the UK people to walk into it willingly shows that the loyalty of our government does not belong to the UK people.

    I am beginning to see that we will never break free of the EU because our government no longer works for, or cares about, the people of this country. Was the game lost before we even started? I hope with all my heart I am wrong.
     
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    There is still a massive Remain campaign being run by the government, main stream TV, and certain newspapers.

    We are still not getting any 'bad news' about the EU, or information about it's push towards a superstate or the steps being put in place to remove democracy and resistance from the EU people. Don't take my word for it, read the Treaties and the Five Presidents report. It's no secret, but for some reason it is never raised by politicians.

    We still hear nothing about the failing EU economies. Even TTIP, the refugee crisis and the succession of Turkey seems to be ignored. Leave won, so all the Leave arguments have been sidelined and publicity is deliberately being whipped up about the unfairness of the referendum, when the unfairness was heavily biased to the Remain campaign.

    Massive immigration is not helpful to our economy while we are in the EU/EEA. We will not benefit from the economic gains as the benefits will be passed to the EU and other members, but we will suffer from lower wages, reduced services, overcrowding, increased pollution, and homelessness. If the majority of people are not going to benefit from economic gains, then we may as well be poor and get back our freedom. If we had the government fully supporting us, we would be far better off in the long run, and have our sovereignty too, but they are still being deceitful. They are deliberately pushing out and discrediting the only person who is honest with the people about the EU (Farage).

    Mass immigration is essential to the EU vision of a superstate as this removes our identity and loyalty to our country, because it won't be 'our' country anymore. We will become like the Australian aborigines, and the American Indians, and some may say that is fair justice but to persuade the UK people to walk into it willingly shows that the loyalty of our government does not belong to the UK people.

    I am beginning to see that we will never break free of the EU because our government no longer works for, or cares about, the people of this country. Was the game lost before we even started? I hope with all my heart I am wrong.

    The attack in Turkey was shown on CNN. Nothing on BBC, Sky News etc for over an hour later.
     
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    With life beginning to return to normal, people realising that the sun will still rise tommorow, the initial hysteria, media and politically led slowing falling to the wayside as other news stories replace them, people will begin to concentrate on the future, not the past.

    The EU will want to cut a deal as much as the UK, we wish to remain friends, but it will have to be a trade deal, and without free movement. I do not believe the UK politicians will ever be forgiven by the leavers if they renage on the take back control main tenant of the leave argument, people wanted to regain their country, regain control, anything else is a sell out.

    The UK will be fine even outside of europe, better 10 years of pain than a lifetime of slavery, and like other posters I also believe without major reform the EU will collapse. We are going to be free to swim our own course, the rest of the EU members are chained to a sinking ship, I know which situation I prefer to be in. Soon the UK will regain confidence in itself, time the media started to talk the country up as much as it talks it down.

    Many EU national leaders will be held to account for the farcical handling of the economic migrant problem throughout europe, not the true war refugees, the economic migrants which account for probably 60-80% of the total. The German reaction in next years elections will be interesting.
     
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    Newchodge

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    With life beginning to return to normal, people realising that the sun will still rise tommorow, the initial hysteria, media and politically led slowing falling to the wayside as other news stories replace them, people will begin to concentrate on the future, not the past.

    The EU will want to cut a deal as much as the UK, we wish to remain friends, but it will have to be a trade deal, and without free movement. I do not believe the UK politicians will ever be forgiven by the leavers if they renage on the take back control main tenant of the leave argument, people wanted to regain their country, regain control, anything else is a sell out.

    The UK will be fine even outside of europe, better 10 years of pain than a lifetime of slavery, and like other posters I also believe without major reform the EU will collapse. We are going to be free to swim our own course, the rest of the EU members are chained to a sinking ship, I know which situation I prefer to be in. Soon the UK will regain confidence in itself, time the media started to talk the country up as much as it talks it down.

    Many EU national leaders will be held to account for the farcical handling of the economic migrant problem throughout europe, not the true war refugees, the economic migrants which account for probably 60-80% of the total. The German reaction in next years elections will be interesting.

    I fully understand what you are saying, however, I disagree on the highlighted point. I think part of the problem, from everyone's perspective, is that different people have different concepts of what this means. For some it means immigration control, for others it means no EU lawmaking, for others it means open trade.

    I worry that the politicians will use this uncertainty to claim they have got a good deal. Johnson in particular has already said, in an article in the Telegraph that I referred to, that there will be free trade with the EU, there will be freedom of movement, but we won't be bound by the European Court of Justice.

    Result?
     
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    threenine

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    Just take a little time today, to think about the real price of sovereignty, patriotism and nationalism.
    Lets not over romanticize these ideals. Let's respect the dead on both sides.

    We are just little specks of insignificance in the vast darkness of space. getting a little too wound up about thoughts and ideologies that really amount to very little
     
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    The good news (from my point of view) is that the EU appear to be anxious to get rid of the troublesome UK. It seems ironic that the government we want to escape from becomes our biggest Brexit allies.

    I believe the official superstate announcement has been delayed until 07 July, but details are sparse at the moment. I think once that is released to the general public throughout the EU then attitudes of the EU citizens will harden against the EU.
     
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    Interesting to read that the French finance minister has stated that Britain could have access to the single market without having the free movement of labour.

    France have also said the agreement for Calais will remain in place.

    I think, and hope, that the UK will come out of this a lot better than people are predicting.
     
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    bharris

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    Last night we received 2 emails asking where the products we sell are made. One asked which ones are make in the UK and the other asked none EU. I don't think we have had a request about location for possibly years (back when people actually pretended to care for the environment) Is this an indication that people are beginning to have a backlash and in future have a preference for UK friendly countries produce?
     
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    Scott-Copywriter

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    I am beginning to see that we will never break free of the EU because our government no longer works for, or cares about, the people of this country. Was the game lost before we even started? I hope with all my heart I am wrong.

    I agree with you there, to a point.

    However, I don't think it's any malicious intent from the Government. It's just a simple fact that we are in between a rock and a hard place when it comes to the EU.

    The UK has been built over 40 years with many elements being heavily intertwined with the EU. Thousands of businesses rely on free and open trade with the single market. You can't just stop all of that without serious repercussions for the UK economy.

    These are repercussions that many politicians, including those of a pro-Brexit stance, are not prepared to accept.

    They also know that they really can't win. If they completely resist the EU and leave largely empty handed, they'll delight many leave supporters whilst simultaneously infuriating many of them with further austerity and economic hardship. Let's not also forget that they still have to placate the 16,141,241 who voted remain.

    I think the biggest problem here is that leave politicians have been swept up in the EU referendum campaigning and took a hard-line on the EU to win the leave vote which even they don't personally believe in. As a result, you have most leave supporters thinking Brexit will go one way, and most leave politicians intending to take it the other way.

    But is this really surprising? This happens in every General Election, and this is no different. Politicians bend the truth, hide the negatives and enhance the positives to win votes, and then once they have power, the truth comes out.

    They are deliberately pushing out and discrediting the only person who is honest with the people about the EU (Farage).

    I disagree with that. Whilst he obviously shares the same opinions as many leave supporters, he clearly has some kind of obsessive hatred for the EU which skews his judgment. If people are wary of the claims of remain backers, then they should be equally wary of his.

    Take his last EU speech, in which he claimed that MEPs have "never done a proper job in their lives". In the same video, you can see MEP Vytenis Andriukaitis, a man born in a Soviet gulag who went on to be a cardiac surgeon for 6 years.

    The way Farage has represented himself, especially in the EU Parliament, is not sensible, level-headed, mature or even sane. The man argued about UK fishing rights, and whilst he was part of the EU Fisheries Committee, he only attended 1 out of 42 meetings. He also did not participate in a vote which would have gave a larger quota to smaller, sustainable fishing boats based across the UK coastline.

    The man and his fellow UKIP MEPs took millions in expenses but barely ever tried to fight for the interests of the British people within the EU system. He spat his dummy out, refused to participate and then only came alive when this referendum appeared.

    Anyone is entitled to have their convictions regarding the leave argument, but Farage is a dangerous man who is equally capable of bending the truth far the other way.
     
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    @Scott - unless the EU reforms (massively) it will fail, sooner or later. You cannot take sovereignty from the people without the will of the people, and the EU does not have that luxury, and never will.

    Forcing mass immigration onto countries will not work in the way the EU intended ie. to destroy nationalism. It just creates little communities within communities, as the majority of people are drawn to 'their own kind'. This even happens with ex-pats in Spain and France. It will eventually reduce nationalism, as the majority of citizens will have no loyalty to the country where they live, and their loyalty will stay with their home nation, but this take a long time and the EU won't wait. Too much immigration and exclusion zones where the nationals feel unwelcome is the result and this is the cause of the build up of perceived racism. The Brits are one of the most accepting and tolerant of nations, but you can push people too far, too quickly.

    People across the EU will accept cooperation with other nations, and sensible democratic rules, but will never accept a single state under Brussels/German rule and will do everything in their power to prevent this, even if means a few tough years until people get their economies sorted.

    We are the 5th biggest economy. We can not only survive, but flourish, if we get the right government in place.
     
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    KM-Tiger

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    in which he claimed that MEPs have "never done a proper job in their lives".
    He actually said "many of" or "most of", I cannot remember which.

    The same criticism has been made of the UK parliament, not sure whether the figures bear it out or not. But I am suspicious of career politicians who just do not have any experience of real life.
     
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    Scott-Copywriter

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    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36672591

    Boris rules himself out.

    Remember what was said a little while ago about Cameron check-mating him?

    So now we're looking increasingly likely to have Theresa May as Prime Minister, a pro-remain politician, in a Parliament with a huge majority of pro-EU MPs on almost all sides.

    I think any leave supporter expecting a clean break from the EU is going to be very disappointed.

    And even if the outcome does involve cosying right up to the EU with free movement of labour and continued payments for the single market, that's technically not against the will of the people.

    After all, this was only a vote to leave, non what to do once we've left. The slim majority of the public will get their way though leaving the EU, but I think the exit terms will be very different to what many people expect.

    With a pro-remain PM, a pro-remain Parliament and an emphasis on minimising the impact on the economy as much as possible, I honestly believe we will be members of the EU in all but name.

    That might annoy half of the electorate, but it will please the other half which voted remain.
     
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    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36672591

    Boris rules himself out.

    Remember what was said a little while ago about Cameron check-mating him?

    So now we're looking increasingly likely to have Theresa May as Prime Minister, a pro-remain politician, in a Parliament with a huge majority of pro-EU MPs on almost all sides.

    I think any leave supporter expecting a clean break from the EU is going to be very disappointed.

    And even if the outcome does involve cosying right up to the EU with free movement of labour and continued payments for the single market, that's technically not against the will of the people.

    After all, this was only a vote to leave, non what to do once we've left. The slim majority of the public will get their way though leaving the EU, but I think the exit terms will be very different to what many people expect.

    With a pro-remain PM, a pro-remain Parliament and an emphasis on minimising the impact on the economy as much as possible, I honestly believe we will be members of the EU in all but name.

    That might annoy half of the electorate, but it will please the other half which voted remain.

    I think Gove or even Andrea Leadsom have a good chance at it.

    May is the favourite according to Betfair. But a favourite has never one the leadership apparently.

    I think Leadsom is worth a couple of quid at 12/1
     
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