Solar PV and Solar Thermal - BIG SCALE, BIG RETURN!

[willitbe]

Which confirms my numbers:




A fifteen year payback on your original investment assuming that nothing goes wrong or changes. I'm out.

(That's a fifteen year payback where 89% of the income is a SUBSIDY. As a technology, it's great; as an economically viable technology it's a total nonsense. And by subsidising it, the government has removed any incentive the PV industry had to make it more cost effective. It's insane)

The problem lies in that a 2kwp system doesn't cost anybody but a complete donut £14k.

We have just quoted a 2.4kwp system using 240w hybrid panels, better yield, for 9k fitted!

See basing your argument on example figures will not stand up my learned friend.

6k difference is a lot of money!

 

The problem lies in that a 2kwp system doesn't cost anybody but a complete donut £14k.

We have just quoted a 2.4kwp system using 240w hybrid panels, better yield, for 9k fitted!

See basing your argument on example figures will not stand up my learned friend.

6k difference is a lot of money!

But a tad more than the right answer 5K.

So how many complaints have you had from customers that the systems did not live up to expectations.?

Earl

 

[willitbe]

But a tad more than the right answer 5K.

So how many complaints have you had from customers that the systems did not live up to expectations.?

Earl

None as yet and not likely to either. The SAP calculation is always about 10 percent below expected yield. Everyone has been chuffed so far.

Slightly off topic. I have had about 10 different lead generating companies contact me within the last week, they are all jumping on the bandwagon...Double glazing must be slow!!

 

[cjd]

The problem lies in that a 2kwp system doesn't cost anybody but a complete donut £14k.

We have just quoted a 2.4kwp system using 240w hybrid panels, better yield, for 9k fitted!

See basing your argument on example figures will not stand up my learned friend.

6k difference is a lot of money!

But still a 9 year payback - even on your great price.

It's not a sensible investment - sorry, it's just not.

 

[willitbe]

But still a 9 year payback - even on your great price.

It's not a sensible investment - sorry, it's just not.

http://www.reuk.co.uk/REUK-Feed-In-Tariff-Calculator.htm

Have a look at that and put your figures in

 

[cjd]

http://www.reuk.co.uk/REUK-Feed-In-Tariff-Calculator.htm

Have a look at that and put your figures in

It's exactly the same. If you divide annual income into initial capital cost you get a payback in about 10 - 15 years depending on your initial cost. So I'm never going to be interested as a pure financial investment.

The second part of the calculation attempts to compare the financial return from PV against a saving's account.

There are many things wrong with it including maintenance, inflation, interest rates assumed, type of investment, the fact that I've NEVER lived in a house for 25 years etc but the 3 most obvious are:

1. At the end of the 25 years, in the saving's account, you get your initial investment returned to you. You don't just get interest on it. Do'h.

2. If you insist on a comparison with a savings account you must use an ISA so that the interest is tax free.

3. 25 years is a ludicrously long investment period, no-one has a clue what will have happened. Not a clue.

 

[jj251006271]

Hi, This is Jun CHOU from China.

Glad to speak here.

I was in the business of Solar power energy products and Insulation products.

So i am quite cleat that more and more people pay great on the energy saving.

And also goverments,they carry out a lot of courage feedback measures to encourage the people to use the new energy.

I think that is good for the New energy business.

Hope your business can gose well.

Thanks and regards.

Jun CHOU
Mobile:86-13037126246
Skype:jj251006

 

[owenou]

Tax payer funded scam, solar PV panels are not cost effective in the UK.IMHO

Solar thermal water heating can be reasonably effective.

Earl

It seems you are right! Solar PV panels are not cost effective in the UK.

 

[[email protected]]

now most of people like the solar prodcuts and energy saver ,even thought it is higher a light than the normal ,but if will payback after several years!

 

[skiesnpies]

Some real data.
3.8kw system installed on my yorkshire home for 12 months (9 months of FITS).
On balance I have generated 90% of the electric I use (although sometimes imported and sometimes exported) - using the grid as a battery.

I have just received £1200 cheque from my electricity company - and these are VERY real pounds gentlemen. In addition, my electric bill is significantly smaller.
The government has paid none of this money from the exchequer.

Added to this, as was hoped, FITS would drive down prices as economies of scale kicked in. My system would be 20% cheaper if I bought it today. Am I bothered? Not really as my ROI is still going to be excellent and it means take up will increase.

It doesn't work? Its a SCAM?

I have the evidence and experience to say otherwise.

It seems the two nay sayers on this thread and several others just rubbish whatever they don't like, label it as a SCAM and ignore the facts placed in front of them. Its a strange hobby to be sure!

I will enjoy spending my cheque boys. It may not exist to you, but it certainly cleared when I put it in the bank.

 

Some real data.
3.8kw system installed on my yorkshire home for 12 months (9 months of FITS).
On balance I have generated 90% of the electric I use (although sometimes imported and sometimes exported) - using the grid as a battery.

I have just received £1200 cheque from my electricity company - and these are VERY real pounds gentlemen. In addition, my electric bill is significantly smaller.
The government has paid none of this money from the exchequer.

Added to this, as was hoped, FITS would drive down prices as economies of scale kicked in. My system would be 20% cheaper if I bought it today. Am I bothered? Not really as my ROI is still going to be excellent and it means take up will increase.

It doesn't work? Its a SCAM?

I have the evidence and experience to say otherwise.

It seems the two nay sayers on this thread and several others just rubbish whatever they don't like, label it as a SCAM and ignore the facts placed in front of them. Its a strange hobby to be sure!

I will enjoy spending my cheque boys. It may not exist to you, but it certainly cleared when I put it in the bank.

How much did the installation cost.?

Earl

 

[skiesnpies]

£16,000 install costs, so when my electricity bill savings are factored in, about a 10 year pay back. But that assumes energy prices don't rise - and like most speculators, I am gambling that they will. Although not a huge gamble as the £1200 part of the equation is index linked and guaranteed for 25 years.

 

£16,000 install costs, so when my electricity bill savings are factored in, about a 10 year pay back. But that assumes energy prices don't rise - and like most speculators, I am gambling that they will. Although not a huge gamble as the £1200 part of the equation is index linked and guaranteed for 25 years.

"The government has paid none of this money from the exchequer"

So who do you think pays the subsidy.?:|

Earl

 

[skiesnpies]

You do, in your energy bill, I will try and spend your money wisely, a pint tonight I think

 

You do, in your energy bill, I will try and spend your money wisely, a pint tonight I think

So you scam OAP's.?
you may get 16k back in 10 years ,but I would have earnt many times that with 16k.

And you will only be at break even point.:|

Earl

 

[cjd]

You're not saying anything new - it takes 10 years to pay back, I'm out.

 

[skiesnpies]

So exactly where are these risk free projects which have super quick paybacks? I would love to know about them?
You guys choose to ignore that the 10 years is a MINIMUM and more than likely will be much shorter.

 

[Cornish Steve]

And you're not taking into account opportunity costs, maintenance, risk of government changing its mind, the emergence of alternative technologies, etc. Most investors (including companies investing in capital equipment) expect a pay-back of MUCH less than 10 years. Twitter didn't exist five years ago; things change quickly in this world.

 

So exactly where are these risk free projects which have super quick paybacks? I would love to know about them?

Well you buy 16k's worth of gear that people want and flog it for 32k.

Millions of buggers do it everyday.

So I gotta pay for your beer for 10 years.

Earl

 

[skiesnpies]

This is largely nonsensical.
Any investment has to ignore opportunity costs, otherwise you would never invest in case something better comes along.
Maintenance with PV is about as low as it comes, a quick clean over, the warranties are long and comprehensive with all of my kit - no moving parts!
Government changing its mind? Sure, it could pull FITS, but would it dare pull FITS for those already signed into the scheme? I doubt it, governments don't often pull that kind of stunt, it would be like retrospectively changing tax laws, it just doesn't tend to happen, I don't think they would get away with it.
Alternative tech? Sure, it may happen, but solar PV has improved very incrementally in recent years, and the same applies to all investments, if you hang on waiting, you would never do it.
I have speculative investments which will pay quicker, I have cash in the bank which will do virtually nothing, this is a steady safe bet, if energy prices rise, it becomes a very nice bet indeed.
I would still be interested to hear all about your dead cert high return investments?

 

[skiesnpies]

Well you buy 16k's worth of gear that people want and flog it for 32k.

Millions of buggers do it everyday.

Earl

Was that an investment opportunity? I am not keen on your pitch. I don't think I will invest.

 

[Cornish Steve]

I would still be interested to hear all about your dead cert high return investments?

But you're not talking about a high-return investment, are you? You break even after 10 years (and, if you believe earlier calculations in this thread, after 15-20 years). This means a return of precisely zero in 10 years. Your money in the bank will do significantly better at virtually no risk.

Don't get me wrong: I'm not against the use of solar panels. They're not going to become mainstream, however, until there's a real return in, let's say, 3-4 years. At that point, a tipping point will be reached.

 

Was that an investment opportunity? I am not keen on your pitch. I don't think I will invest.

See thats the second big investment mistake you made.

Earl

 

[cjd]

If I said to you now, if you give me £16,000 today, I'll take care of your electricity bill and give you a cheque for £1200 every year, would you consider it a good investment?

(be careful, I'm never going to give you your original £16,000 back, I'm going to keep that forever and you can't change your mind in 5 years time ie it's not a savings account)

 

[skiesnpies]

You don't have to be in a forum long to spot the trolls these days
At 3% (generous at the moment) bank interest, compound over 10 years, I would have just shy of £21K, £3K profit. After a further 3 years I will be well ahead of that from my PV system having paid for it. 10 years later, well, no comparison. And thats WITHOUT electricity increases - and only a fool would imagine we will pay the same or less for electricity in 3 / 5 / 10 years time!

As for tipping point, when people are offering to install them on your house for nothing in return for the FITS, I think that counts as a tipping point. 5 years from now, they will be as popular as sky dishes on the roofs of English houses.

 

[cjd]

I wonder why it's so hard to understand the difference between a savings account and a purchase? And then do a comparative analysis?

With your PV investment, after 10 years you may or may not have covered your initial investment (ie at this point your best outcome is that you didn't lose money over the ten years. )

After 10 years in the bank account you have the bank's compound interest PLUS your original £16k.

As a business person, I dislike an investment that doesn't pay back for 10 years at best. As a home owner I know that there is very little likelihood of me being in this house in ten years. As someone interested in technology, I dislike the fact that PV is still a bad investment even when subsidised at 80% and as a citizen I hate the idea that the subsidy will send the wrong message to the industry - it now pays to be inefficient.